WTI down 4.63% on Iran-deal hopes as USD sinks; US500 up 2.63% before Tuesday's CPI

Daily Wrap, Monday, 9 November 2026. Published 22:15 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices averaged +2.65% over 24h while oil fell 4.52% and gold rose 1.7%. USD was the weakest major at -0.65, and neither CHF (-0.21) nor JPY (-0.05) drew a haven bid.

In short

• Oil set the tone. XTIUSD fell 4.63% on the day to 86.67 after Trump called further Iran strikes 'highly unlikely' and Iraq secured US agreement to resume Hormuz exports. It touched 85.3, below the desk's 86.00–86.32 two-month-low zone, before closing back above it.
• Lower oil pulled Treasury yields toward a two-month low and DXY below 102.00, leaving USD weakest at -0.65 on the 24h strength table. NZD led at 1.09 on election relief. The FX day has just rolled, so FX moves here are quoted on 24h: EURUSD +0.72%, AUDUSD +0.92%, USDJPY -0.38%.
• Equities had an outsized day. US500 rose 2.63% on a range 2.74x typical, USTEC 4.32% and JP225 5.46%. Gold added 1.79% to 4140.5 and silver 3.26%, all heading into Tuesday's US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline YoY f/c 3.9%, core MoM f/c 0.2%).

Themes

Iran diplomacy drains oil's war premium

XTIUSD traded between 91.69 and 85.3 on a range 1.95x typical, briefly breaking below the desk's 86.00–86.32 two-month-low zone before settling at 86.67. The selloff ignored friction: Rubio called Iran's demands unacceptable, an Iraqi gas field was hit, and Iran accused the US of striking Qeshm Island. The desk notes a negotiated outcome is heavily priced, leaving a thin risk premium if talks stall.

Lower oil, lower yields, softer dollar

Falling crude eased US inflation worries, the 3-year auction cleared at 4.627% vs 4.932% previously, and DXY slipped below 102.00. Metals took the cue: XAUUSD rose 1.79%, XAGUSD 3.26% and XPTUSD 2.82% on the day. On 24h, EURUSD was up 0.72% and GBPUSD 0.67%.

Equity bid broad and outsized

US30 rose 2.34%, FRA40 1.84% and UK100 1.04% on the day, alongside the bigger moves in USTEC and JP225. Fed speakers did not push back on the bid: Barkin saw rates near neutral with no December signal, while Goolsbee warned services inflation goes beyond tariff pressure. Bailey said UK activity is more resilient than expected thanks to AI investment, but flagged bubble risk.

NZD on top, CAD left behind

NZD led the strength table at 1.09 on the coalition result, and AUD/NZD fell 0.58% on 24h. CAD scored only -0.1 despite USD weakness, with USDCAD reversing higher in US hours (+0.22% in an hour flagged at 15:36 UTC). The desk pins that on falling oil and soft October jobs denting BoC hike odds.

What moved

• XTI/USD −4.63% Trump called further Iran strikes 'highly unlikely' and Iraq secured US agreement to resume Hormuz exports. A further -1.76% 15-minute drop flagged at 19:41 UTC had no single clear driver in our news feed.
• USTEC +4.32% Broad risk bid as falling oil dragged the 10y yield toward a two-month low and DXY below 102.00, on a range 2.28x typical.
• US500 +2.63% The same oil-and-yields relief, including a 0.58% jump in 15 minutes flagged at 14:46 UTC, on a range 2.74x a normal day.
• JP225 +5.46% Rode the global risk bid, with a 1.7% hourly surge flagged at 15:01 UTC; there is no Japan-specific equity driver in our news feed.
• XAU/USD +1.79% The USD and oil slump outweighed December Fed-hike pricing, and China's central bank adding 25.8t to reserves reinforced the official-sector bid.
• NZD/USD +1.59% Preliminary results gave PM Luxon's coalition a slim majority, which lowers the risk of a more dovish dual-mandate RBNZ; about 14% of votes are still uncounted.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1234 First D1 resistance inside the five-week 1.1104–1.1273 range under a falling EMA50. Last 1.12226 sits between it and 1.12 support.
• XAU/USD 4,146.92 Top of the H4 4027–4147 consolidation and also D1 resistance. The day high of 4148.22 poked just above it; last is 4140.5.
• XAG/USD 53.45 Top of the H4 51.18–53.45 range and the D1 channel cap. The day high was 53.542 and last is 53.422, just beneath it.
• USD/JPY 157.67 Nearest H4 support in a compressing range of lower highs from 158.77 and higher lows from 156.96; last is 157.91.
• NZD/USD 0.5600 Old congestion retested by the relief bounce, now the first H4 support. Last is 0.5628, with H4 resistance at 0.563 just overhead.

Ahead

• 23:30 UTC AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence No forecast is given against a previous -4.7%. It lands as AUDUSD tests whether the bounce from a 7-month low can hold above 0.69.
• 23:50 UTC JPY Current Account n.s.a. The forecast is 3354.4B¥ vs 4062B¥ previously, a minor input for a yen already firmed by hawkish BoJ minutes.
• 03:00 UTC CNY Exports (YoY) The forecast is 33.5% vs 36.3% previously, part of the China trade batch that feeds into AUD and NZD sentiment in Asia.
• 08:30 UTC GBP BoE's Breeden speech This is the first of Tuesday's BoE speakers. Markets price roughly three more hikes, so any pushback is the GBP sensitivity.
• 09:00 UTC USD Fed's Waller speech It is the last major Fed voice before CPI, with December hike odds at roughly 78–84% across the desk's reads. USD, gold and US indices are exposed.
• 13:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average The previous reading was 16.8K. It is a fresh labour read 15 minutes before CPI, after the NY Fed survey showed rising job fears.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) The forecast is 0.3% vs 0.6% previously. Deutsche Bank expects softer monthly inflation, which the desk sees challenging December hike pricing if it lands alongside lower oil.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) The forecast is 3.9% vs 3.7% previously. It is the headline that sets the tone for the USD, XAUUSD and US indices after today's broad dollar slide.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) The forecast is 0.2% vs 0.3% previously. The desk flags core as the key number for gold and for USDJPY against its 158.68 200-dma.
• 13:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) The forecast is 2.8% vs 2.6% previously. With a December Fed hike described as consensus, the miss-or-beat on core decides whether that pricing holds.

Until the next note, the read runs through Waller at 09:00 UTC into US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), with US-Iran headlines able to jolt oil, and the dollar with it, at any hour.