WTI drops 2.67% on Iran-deal hopes as USD stays weakest; Fed speakers and Bailey ahead

New York Open, Monday, 9 November 2026. Published 13:00 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices are up 1.12% on average over 24h and oil is down 3.29%. The yen (0.01) and franc (-0.05) show no haven demand, so gold's 1.19% gain reads as a weak-dollar, lower-oil story rather than fear.

In short

• No high-impact US data in today's calendar. The 08:30 ET slot is empty, and the US day runs on Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15), then BoE Governor Bailey (17:25, high impact). It all builds toward Tuesday's US CPI at 13:30 GMT (headline YoY f/c 3.9%, core MoM f/c 0.2%).
• London was about oil. XTIUSD is down 2.67% since the London Open note to 87.78 after Trump called further Iran strikes 'highly unlikely' and Iraq secured US agreement to resume Hormuz exports. USD stays bottom of the strength table at -0.51, with NZD on top at 1.02.
• Equities carried the risk bid. USTEC is up 1.07%, FRA40 1.15% and UK100 0.76% since the last note. Gold added another 0.31% to 4119.7, below the day's 4133.83 high, and NYSE opens later on a normal session.

Themes

Iran diplomacy drains oil, drags on the dollar

WTI is down 3.41% on the day to 87.78, closing in on the $86.00–86.32 two-month low zone flagged by the desk, even with no deal signed. Lower crude is easing inflation fears and weighing on USD, which sits last on strength at -0.51. The desk notes most of the de-escalation premium is already out, so a talks failure at today's 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting would hit a market stripped of risk premium.

Fed talk vs a 78% December hike into CPI

Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin are the US-session catalysts, with a December 25bp hike about 78% priced after Friday's payrolls. ING calls the post-NFP dollar rally stretched, and Deutsche Bank's economists expect a soft CPI. That gives the desk a view that a hot print adds only modest USD upside while a soft one could unwind post-NFP gains quickly.

Euro and sterling press resistance on USD softness

EURUSD at 1.11906 is pushing against the 1.1190/1.1200 area against crowded spec shorts (CFTC net -157.8K). GBPUSD is trading around the 1.34 D1 level ahead of Bailey. In both cases the move is mostly about the dollar, and French fiscal risk and BoE pushback are the stated caps.

What moved

• XTI/USD −2.67% Trump called further Iran strikes 'highly unlikely' if talks progress and Iraq won US agreement to resume Hormuz exports, with the platform flagging a 2.83% drop inside an hour at 11:21 UTC.
• USTEC +1.07% US futures gained as lower oil eased inflation concerns, and China extending its suspension of the 24% tariff on US goods lifted risk appetite.
• GBP/USD +0.25% Sterling hit session highs near 1.3420 on broad-based US dollar weakness rather than fresh UK news, with specs still covering shorts.
• EUR/USD +0.23% Lower oil on US-Iran diplomacy and hawkish ECB commentary backing December-hike bets outweighed a German trade surplus miss and a softer Sentix.
• NZD/USD +0.85% Preliminary results show Luxon's coalition holding a slim majority with about 14% of votes uncounted, which BBH says reduces the risk of a more dovish RBNZ mandate.

Releases

• EUR Trade Balance s.a. 15.6B€. The euro shrugged off the miss: EURUSD is up 0.23% since the London Open note at 1.11906, with lower oil doing the heavy lifting.
• EUR Sentix Investor Confidence 2.4. Little impact: EURUSD held its gains and European stocks kept rising, with FRA40 up 1.15% since the last note.
• MXN Headline Inflation 0.65%. No MXN pair in our price feed, so there is no reaction to report. Core (0.34% vs 0.31%) and 12-month (3.75% vs 3.65%) readings also came in above forecast.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1200 First H4 resistance in a series of lower highs off 1.1273, inside the 1.1104–1.1273 range. The day's high of 1.11984 sits just beneath it.
• GBP/USD 1.3400 D1 resistance in a recovery that has stalled below 1.3500. Price is trading around it, with the day's high at 1.34258.
• XAU/USD 4,146.92 D1 resistance capping a corrective bounce inside the lower-high chain from the early-September 4510 high. The day's high so far is 4133.83.
• NZD/USD 0.5615 First H4 resistance after the rebound off the 19-month low, back inside the prior 0.5581–0.5658 range. The day's high is 0.56167.

Ahead

• 13:40 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech This is the first Fed voice after the 165K payrolls beat, with a December hike about 78% priced. Hawkish or dovish shading tests the dollar's softness and gold.
• 15:00 UTC USD Fed's Goolsbee speech Another read on December-hike conviction before Tuesday's CPI, relevant to USD pairs, XAUUSD and US indices.
• 17:15 UTC USD Fed's Barkin speech He speaks 15 minutes after the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar PM meeting on an Iran ceasefire, so Fed and oil headlines could overlap for USD and XTIUSD.
• 17:25 UTC GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech About three more BoE hikes are priced and Bailey has said not to expect a sequence. Any December-versus-February wording matters for GBPUSD near 1.34 and for EURGBP.

The 17:00–17:25 GMT window is the one to watch: the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting for oil and the dollar, then Bailey for sterling, with Fed speakers framing December-hike odds into Tuesday's CPI.