Dollar slips across the board; NZD leads on coalition count, gold up 1.13%

London Open, Monday, 9 November 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices are up 0.36% on average over 24h while the havens are flat (JPY -0.03, CHF 0.01), a mild risk-on tone. Gold's 1.04% gain tracks a softer dollar and Iran peace hopes rather than haven demand.

In short

• USD is at the bottom of the strength table on -0.36 and NZD is at the top on 0.73. NZDUSD is up 0.61% since the Asia Open note at 0.55952, now that the preliminary count shows Luxon's coalition holding a slim majority with ~14% of votes still uncounted.
• Gold is up 1.13% to 4113.52 and silver 1.56% to 52.581 since the last note. WTI (XTIUSD) fell 0.98% to 89.74, below the $90 area, after Trump called further Iran strikes 'highly unlikely'. China CPI YoY printed 0.7% vs 0.8% forecast; PPI YoY came in at 5.7% vs 5.3%.
• Europe opens with the Eurozone Trade Balance at 07:00 UTC (f/c 19.2B€) and Sentix at 09:30. Fed's Bowman speaks at 13:40 and Goolsbee at 15:00, ahead of Tuesday's US CPI.

Themes

Dollar fades post-NFP gains before CPI

DXY slipped to ~102.20 in Asia as crude fell and China extended its suspension of 24% tariffs on US goods. USD is now the weakest major on -0.36, and EURUSD and GBPUSD both trade at their day highs. With ~78% of a December Fed hike already priced, the desk sees a soft core CPI on Tuesday as having more room to move the dollar than a hot one.

Oil war premium leaks before Trump–Qatar meeting

XTIUSD trades at 89.74, almost on its day low of 89.72, below the $90 area flagged for the Monday open, after Trump's de-escalation comments and news of resumed Iraqi Hormuz exports. Lower crude has fed silver's rebound via easing inflation fears. The Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT is the swing catalyst, with the 200-day SMA near $86 the line the oil desk is watching.

Kiwi relief as coalition holds; Aussie off lows

NZDUSD's range is running at 1.35x typical as the preliminary count eases political risk, though the desk still frames rallies as relief bounces within a multi-week downtrend. AUDUSD is up 0.36% since the last note despite China's CPI miss, sitting on D1 resistance. AUDNZD is down 0.25% over the same window as the Kiwi outpaces the Aussie.

What moved

• NZD/USD +0.61% Preliminary NZ election results show the ruling coalition with a slim majority, trimming some political risk premium, while the USD softened broadly.
• XAU/USD +1.13% Gold rose on a softer USD and hopes that the new Democratic Congress pushes to end the Iran war, with the platform flagging a 1.2% jump in the hour to 01:01 UTC.
• XAG/USD +1.56% Lower oil eased inflation fears and the real-yield headwind, and a 2.45% spike flagged at 01:01 UTC carried silver toward $53.
• XTI/USD −0.98% Trump called further Iran strikes 'highly unlikely' if talks progress, and Iraq secured US agreement to resume exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
• JP225 +1.91% Asian stocks rebounded after the AI sell-off, with a 1.56% hourly jump flagged at 01:01 UTC, and China's extended suspension of 24% US tariffs helped risk appetite.

Releases

• CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.7%. The miss did not dent the Aussie: AUDUSD is up 0.36% since the last note at 0.68941, a bounce the desk reads as USD softness and position-squaring.
• CNY Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0%. The in-line print added nothing new, and AUD and NZD kept firming against the dollar.
• CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) 5.7%. The upside surprise drew no distinct reaction in our feed, as the dollar's broad slide dominated.

Levels to watch

• NZD/USD 0.5600 H4 resistance at the round number, briefly exceeded at the 0.56023 day high, with price now just beneath it.
• AUD/USD 0.6894 D1 resistance within a lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.7237 September high; price is sitting on it after the day high of 0.69026.
• EUR/USD 1.1185 First H4 resistance above a market at its day high, inside the 1.1170–1.12 zone the euro desk is watching.
• GBP/USD 1.3400 D1 resistance and the first pivot after it broke on NFP; price is basing above the 1.3342 H4 swing low.

Ahead

• 07:00 UTC EUR Trade Balance s.a. Forecast is 19.2B€ after 19.5B€. A second-tier read for EURUSD, which sits at its day high with ECB hike talk in support.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Eurogroup Meeting Finance ministers meet as hawkish ECB commentary has revived December hike expectations. Headlines could touch EURUSD and EURCHF.
• 09:30 UTC EUR Sentix Investor Confidence The prior reading was 2.7 and no forecast is listed. It is an early sentiment gauge for the euro and FRA40 ahead of Wednesday's HICP.
• 13:40 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech This is the first Fed voice before Tuesday's CPI with ~78% of a December hike priced. Any shift in that pricing runs through the USD, gold and US indices.
• 15:00 UTC USD Fed's Goolsbee speech This is another read on December hike odds before CPI. A softer tone would extend the dollar's post-NFP fade; a hawkish one would test it.

Watch how Bowman and Goolsbee move the ~78% December hike pricing into Tuesday's CPI, with the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting as the wildcard for oil and the dollar.