Dollar slips into CPI day: AUDUSD at 0.7000, cable at range top before Lagarde

London Open, Wednesday, 14 October 2026. Published 06:00 UTC.

Risk-on: Risk appetite is mildly positive: indices average +0.29% over 24h, gold is down 0.82% and JPY is the second-weakest major (-0.29), though oil's 1.98% 24h gain reflects Middle East supply risk rather than growth optimism.

In short

Asia extended the USD pullback. USD is the weakest major on 24h strength (-0.35) and CAD the strongest (0.46). AUDUSD is up 0.25% since the Asia Open note at 0.70004, and GBPUSD is up 0.14% at 1.32729.
China's data was mixed. PPI came in at 5% vs 4.5% forecast and exports at 36.3% vs 25.5%, but CPI missed at 0.9% vs 1%. The desk's AUD digest reads the September data as a tailwind for AUD.
Europe opens with Macklem at 06:05 UTC, EUR HICP (f/c 5%) at 07:00 and Lagarde at 08:30. All of it comes ahead of US CPI at 12:30 UTC, where core MoM (f/c 0.2%) is the swing number.

Themes

Dollar drifts lower into CPI

USD is the weakest major on 24h strength (-0.35), with the dollar index near 102.00 after Williams' signal of one more hike but none in 2027. The EUR digest frames EURUSD's move to 1.12074 as a USD correction rather than euro strength, and USDCHF is down 0.1% since the last note at 0.83204, near its 0.8287 support. Desk digests see the near-term asymmetry tilting against the USD on a soft or in-line core.

China and oil lift commodity currencies

CAD (0.46) and AUD (0.36) top 24h strength. China's PPI and trade beats supported AUD, and oil is up 1.24% on the day on Saudi and Hormuz attacks. Macklem at 06:05 UTC is the CAD-specific test, with the CAD digest noting that hawkish confirmation is largely priced while dovish remarks have room to unwind hike bets.

Yen boxed in, metals heavy into yields test

USDJPY is at 158.286, down 0.05% since the last note, with the day high of 158.516 just above H4 resistance at 158.51. October BoJ hike bets near 10% weigh on the yen, while intervention fear caps the topside. Gold is down 0.82% and silver 2.48% over 24h as 10y yields near 5.223% and oil-driven hike bets cap non-yielders.

What moved

AUD/USD +0.25% China's PPI beat (5% vs 4.5%) and stronger trade data added to the lift from Williams' no-2027-hike remarks and lower UST yields, per the desk's AUD digest.
GBP/USD +0.14% Cable rose for a second day on a softer USD, with hawkish BoE comments from Greene and Mann and an FT report that Healey will fund budget giveaways without extra borrowing adding support.
NZD/USD +0.18% The bounce off the 0.5580 18-month low came from lower US yields and the USD's retreat from its 18-month high; the NZD digest says China's mixed inflation data had little impact.
USD/CAD −0.13% The broad USD pullback ahead of CPI did most of the work, with firmer oil helping CAD at the margin.
XTI/USD +1.24% Houthi missiles hit Saudi cities and sparked a small fire at Aramco's Dhahran facility while Iran stepped up attacks on Hormuz tankers; the platform flagged a 1.58% jump in 15 minutes at 23:51 UTC.

Releases

CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) 5%. This was the beat that mattered for Asia FX: AUDJPY is up 0.2% since the last note and AUDUSD is up 0.25%.
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.9%. The small miss was overshadowed by the PPI beat; AUD held its gains, with AUDUSD up 0.27% on the day.
CNY Exports (YoY) 36.3%. The large beat came alongside further AUD firmness, with AUDUSD up 0.27% on the day and pressing 0.7000.
CNY Imports (YoY) 31%. Firm import demand added to a constructive China read for commodity FX, with AUD second on 24h strength (0.36).
CNY Trade Balance USD 133.53B$. The wider surplus came alongside steady Asia risk tone; JP225 is up 0.41% since the last note.

Levels to watch

GBP/USD 1.3278 D1 resistance inside the three-week 1.3180–1.3310 range; today's high of 1.32747 sits just beneath it.
AUD/USD 0.7000 This cap has repeatedly rejected the pair, with H4 highs compressing beneath it; price is trading right on it after a 0.70033 day high.
USD/CAD 1.4200 Floor of the two-week 1.4200–1.4298 range, described as under pressure with H4 RSI at 36; price is at 1.4201.
USD/JPY 158.51 First H4 resistance, overlapping the 200-day SMA zone cited in the JPY digest; today's high was 158.516 against a 158.113 low.

Ahead

06:00 UTC GBP BoE's Pill speech About 90% odds of a 5 Nov hike are already priced, so the GBP digest sees more risk from comments that trim those odds than from further hawkish talk; GBPUSD and EURGBP are exposed.
06:05 UTC CAD BoC's Governor Macklem speech Markets still price BoC tightening despite the -68.3K jobs print, so a dovish tone has room to unwind hike bets; USDCAD, sitting on its 1.42 H4 floor, is exposed.
07:00 UTC EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The forecast is 5%, unchanged from the previous print; EURUSD and EUR crosses are exposed, with oil-driven inflation part of the euro's stagflation worry.
08:30 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Overnight she said inflation is mainly energy-driven with no second-round effects yet but flagged wage bargaining; any shift from that gradualist tone matters for EURUSD near 1.1200.
09:40 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech This is the last Fed voice before CPI and will be read for December-hike signals; USD, XAUUSD and US indices are exposed.
12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) Headline is forecast at 3.6% vs 3.4% previous on oil; the USD digest says an oil-driven headline beat on its own is likely to be partly looked through.
12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) A hot 0.6% (from 0.4%) is the consensus, so the energy-driven jump is largely in the price across USD pairs and metals.
12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) Core at 0.2% (from 0.3%) is the swing number in every desk digest; the gold digest notes a 0.3%+ print has more room to hit metals via yields than an in-line one has to lift them.
12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Forecast 2.5% vs 2.4% previous; together with core MoM it drives December-hike pricing and with it USDJPY, USDCHF, gold and BTC.
14:55 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech Her second appearance comes after the CPI print, so any read on the data feeds directly into Fed pricing and the USD.

The test until the next note is whether US core CPI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2% MoM) confirms or reverses the dollar's pullback; AUDUSD at 0.7000 and GBPUSD at 1.3278 are where it will show first.