CPI at 08:30 ET: core MoM (f/c 0.2%) is the swing as oil climbs and gold slips

New York Open, Wednesday, 14 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Mixed: There is no clean risk signal: indices are flat on average over 24h (-0.03%) and oil is up 3.76% while gold is down 1.15%, with JPY the weakest major (-0.35) and CHF flat (-0.03).

In short

• US September CPI lands at 08:30 ET (12:30 UTC). Headline is forecast at 3.6% YoY and 0.6% MoM, core at 0.2% MoM and 2.5% YoY. Core MoM is the swing number, and ING and MUFG both lean toward an above-consensus print.
• Oil drove London. XTIUSD is up 1.44% since the London Open note at 96.07 after Yemen's Houthis confirmed targeting Aramco refineries. Gold is down 0.54% on the day at 4138.46, its third straight losing day.
• FX is quiet into the print. AUD leads 24h strength (0.48), JPY trails (-0.35) and USD sits at -0.09. Eurozone HICP matched forecast at 5%, and EURUSD has given back early gains to 1.11971.

Themes

Dollar parked into CPI, positioning stretched

USD is mid-table on 24h strength (-0.09) and, per the USD digest, consolidating near DXY 102.10 after a 3%+ five-week rally. The sell-side leans hot, with MUFG saying a CPI surprise could lift DXY further. ING, however, flags short-term overvaluation and stretched positioning, so the digest reads an in-line or soft core as the bigger risk to the dollar.

Oil bid, precious metals bleed

XTIUSD is up 3.76% over 24h on Houthi strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure and Iranian attacks on Hormuz tankers. Over the same window XAUUSD is down 1.15% and XAGUSD down 3.22%. Firmer oil feeds the energy-led headline CPI forecast and the yield story the gold and silver digests cite as the main weight.

Commodity FX leads, yen trails

AUD (0.48) and CAD (0.32) top the 24h strength table with JPY (-0.35) at the bottom, and AUDJPY is up 0.47% on the day. The CAD digest says the Loonie's gains rest on dollar softness and oil rather than Canadian fundamentals. The JPY digest notes that intervention risk near 159–160 caps USDJPY upside.

What moved

• XTI/USD +1.44% Gulf supply risk is back in the price after Yemen's Houthis confirmed targeting Aramco refineries, and the platform flagged a 1.26% one-hour jump at 10:21 UTC.
• AUD/USD +0.38% The AUD digest credits hawkish RBA minutes, softer Treasury yields and above-forecast China PPI for carrying the pair to the top of its range.
• XAU/USD −0.54% Gold is sliding for a third consecutive day as 10y yields near 5.2% and Fed hike pricing weigh, per the desk digest and headlines.
• EUR/USD −0.07% The pair surrendered early gains on caution ahead of US inflation data, and the EUR digest frames the bounce off 1.1150 as dollar-driven, with BNY showing positioning back to net short.
• META +4.66% There is no single clear driver in our news feed for a move that comes on a range 1.89 times normal.

Releases

• EUR Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) 5%. The print was in line on every count and EURUSD is only 0.07% lower since the London Open note; the sharper euro move came during Lagarde's speech, when EURGBP was flagged down 0.13% in an hour.

Levels to watch

• AUD/USD 0.7022 H4 resistance just above the 0.7013 day high; price has pushed through the old 0.6995 cap in a higher-low sequence off 0.6903.
• EUR/USD 1.1211 First H4 resistance above spot, sitting under a falling trendline of lower highs since mid-September.
• USD/JPY 158.75 D1 resistance at the top of a three-week range; the JPY digest notes repeated rejections at the 200-day SMA just below.
• XAU/USD 4,104.00 H4 support near the floor of the 4100–4227 range, with price already trading under the 4143 H4 level.

Ahead

• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) Headline is forecast to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%, a largely energy-driven increase per the desk digests, with USD, gold and US indices most exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) The 0.6% forecast against 0.4% prior is an oil-led jump the digests describe as largely expected, so a surprise matters more than the level.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) This is the swing number: 0.2% forecast against 0.3% prior, with ING calling 0.3%. Digests see a beat reviving October Fed hike odds (~23%), with XAUUSD, XAGUSD, EURUSD and BTCUSD exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Core is forecast to edge up to 2.5% from 2.4%, which frames how much of the hawkish Fed path is already priced into USD.
• 14:55 UTC USD Fed's Bowman speech This is the first Fed voice after the print; a feed headline has her signalling a cautious, data-dependent pause after the latest hike.
• 16:15 UTC EUR ECB's Schnabel speech She follows Lagarde's mildly dovish 'no second-round effects yet' line, with EURUSD and EURGBP exposed to any shift in tone.
• 18:00 UTC USD Fed's Beige Book It gives a regional read on activity and prices ahead of the Oct 27–28 FOMC, relevant to USD and rate-sensitive metals.
• 18:00 UTC USD Monthly Budget Statement The deficit is forecast at -29B$ against -166.8B$ prior, a fiscal read that lands with 10y yields near 5.2%.

Watch core CPI MoM against the 0.2% forecast at 08:30 ET, then Bowman at 14:55 UTC for the first Fed reaction to it.