Hot core CPI tops the dollar table; silver -5.76% and USTEC -2.16% on the day

Daily Wrap, Wednesday, 14 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices are down an average 0.79% over 24h and USD and JPY top the strength table (0.26 and 0.25), while gold's 1.33% fall shows the dollar and yields absorbing haven demand.

In short

• US core CPI beat on both measures: 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% forecast and 2.6% YoY vs 2.5%. Headline YoY was 3.7% vs 3.6%. The desk puts October Fed hike odds near 42%, up from 23% before the release, and Goolsbee and Barkin both said CPI ran too hot.
• The dollar now leads 24h strength at 0.26, up from -0.09 at the New York Open. AUD has fallen from leader (0.48) to flat (0.01), and JPY has risen from last (-0.35) to second (0.25). GBP is weakest at -0.36.
• Metals took the biggest hit: XAGUSD -5.76%, XPTUSD -3.62% and XAUUSD -1.34% on the day, with gold breaking its $4,100 range floor. USTEC fell 2.16%. Tomorrow's 12:30 UTC US retail sales and PPI are the follow-through test.

Themes

Core CPI puts an October Fed hike in play

The core beat moved October hike odds to around 42% from 23%. Goolsbee called hot CPI unacceptable, Barkin kept October open and the Beige Book flagged intensifying price pressures. The desk notes that a lot of the hawkish surprise is now priced, but October is far from fully priced, which leaves room for tomorrow's data to extend the move.

Metals liquidation as crowded longs unwind

Silver had its biggest move of the day at 2.38 times a normal range, and platinum and gold followed lower. Gold spec net-longs are still large at 210.3K, so the desk sees a crowded base exposed now that the $4,100 floor has broken. Silver is near oversold on the H4 RSI at 20, so a soft US print could spark a short-covering bounce.

Equities split: tech hit, UK and some US names held

USTEC and US500 fell on ranges of 1.83 and 1.79 times normal, and JP225 was the weakest index. UK100 rose 0.65% and JPM, NFLX and KO all finished higher. Our feed has no stock-specific driver for those outliers.

Strength table flips: AUD fades, yen holds

AUD lost its lead after AUDUSD failed again above 0.7000 and reversed on the CPI, which puts tonight's jobs data in sharper focus. The yen rose to second in strength, and USDJPY dropped 0.25% in an hour at 18:21 UTC after nearing 159.00. Our news feed has no single clear driver for that late fade.

What moved

• XAG/USD −5.76% The hot core CPI pushed the USD to a fresh YTD high and squeezed remaining longs, with a 1.77% drop in an hour flagged around the core release, taking silver below the $56.57 August low.
• XAU/USD −1.34% Gold broke below its two-week $4,100–$4,200 range after the core beat lifted October hike odds to 42% and rallied the dollar and Treasury yields.
• USTEC −2.16% Tech led the US sell-off as hot core inflation and Fed hike repricing hit risk assets, with NVDA, META and MSFT all lower; no equity-specific driver in our news feed.
• JP225 −2.35% No single clear driver in our news feed; the platform flagged a 0.55% drop in 15 minutes at 14:01 UTC, in the same window as the post-CPI risk sell-off.
• XTI/USD +1.71% WTI held a geopolitical premium after Houthi missiles hit Riyadh and caused a fire at an Aramco facility in Dhahran, and Iran stepped up attacks on Hormuz tankers; OPEC+ output up 900k bpd capped gains.
• GBP/USD −0.48% Cable reversed from a one-week high near 1.3275, reached on a dovish Fed Williams and a UK fiscal-discipline report, as hot CPI lifted Fed hike bets and Treasury yields.

Releases

• USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.7%. The headline beat added to the dollar bid: EURUSD is down 0.4% over 24h and USD tops the strength table at 0.26.
• USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.6%. The in-line monthly headline was overshadowed by the core beat released at the same time.
• USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) 0.3%. This was the swing number flagged at the New York Open, and the beat drove the metals sell-off, with XAUUSD down 1.34% and XAGUSD down 5.76% on the day.
• USD Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) 2.6%. The re-acceleration lifted October hike odds to around 42%, coinciding with a 1.77% hourly drop in XAGUSD and a 2.16% fall in USTEC on the day.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1151 Former support that broke on CPI. Price closed the day just above it, with the 1.1113 H4 support below and the D1 RSI at 30.5.
• GBP/USD 1.3181 Floor of the three-week 1.3181–1.3311 range, briefly broken on CPI. Price is sitting just above it under a series of lower highs.
• XAU/USD 4,103.93 First H4 resistance after the breakdown from the two-week range. Price is hovering just above it, with the H4 RSI at 28.6.
• XAG/USD 56.57 The August low, now the first H4 resistance after the range break below 58.50. Price sits on the 55.65 H4 support.
• USD/CAD 1.4298 18-month high capping a tight range. The higher-high and higher-low chain since September 8 is still intact beneath it.

Ahead

• 00:30 UTC AUD Employment Change s.a. Forecast is 20K after 39.5K. AUD has slipped from strength leader to flat, and the desk sees the print as asymmetric for AUDUSD below 0.7000 given a hawkish RBA already priced in.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. Expected to hold at 4.6%, a five-year high. A rise would undercut the RBA hike case just as Fed hike bets revive, exposing AUDUSD and AUDJPY.
• 01:30 UTC JPY BoJ's Koeda speech An October BoJ hike is priced at only ~10%, so any hawkish lean would test USDJPY near the top of its range, where intervention risk is already in focus.
• 03:40 UTC GBP BoE's Pill speech Pill has already pushed back on the roughly four priced BoE hikes, so further scepticism would weigh on GBP, the weakest currency over 24h.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) Forecast is -0.1% after 0.4%. The desk sees more downside than upside risk for sterling from UK data, with GBPUSD pressing its range floor.
• 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast is 0.3% after 1.2%. A strong print would extend the post-CPI hike repricing, with the USD, gold, silver and US indices most exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Retail Sales Control Group There is no forecast after 1.4% previously, so this is the cleanest read on consumer demand as markets weigh October Fed hike odds near 42%.
• 12:30 UTC USD Producer Price Index (MoM) Forecast is 0.5% after 0.4%, and the desk calls PPI the key follow-through test for the hot CPI, especially for metals and EURUSD.

Tonight's Australian jobs data comes first, but the 12:30 UTC US retail sales and PPI release will show whether today's hike repricing builds or fades.