Dollar eases into Tokyo as yen tops strength; Aussie jobs at 00:30 UTC are next

Asia Open, Thursday, 15 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices average -1.01% over 24h, gold is -1.3% and oil -1.25%, and JPY tops the strength table at 0.3, while CHF at -0.08 is not sharing the haven bid.

In short

• The late-US dollar fade has carried into Asia: EURUSD +0.22% and GBPUSD +0.15% since the Daily Wrap, while USDJPY is -0.14% at 158.057. JPY now leads 24h strength at 0.3. USD has slipped to second at 0.11, from 0.26 at the wrap.
• Risk is still heavy. USTEC is -0.59% since the wrap, and JP225 is -0.31% ahead of the Tokyo cash open after -4.03% on the week. WTI is -1.77% at 93.64.
• Australia's September jobs report at 00:30 UTC is the first test: employment change f/c 20K (prior 39.5K), unemployment f/c 4.6%. BoJ's Koeda speaks at 01:30 UTC.

Themes

Aussie jobs land under the 0.7000 cap

AUDUSD sits at 0.69746, inside the two-week 0.6935–0.7000 range after being rejected at 0.70 on hot US CPI. The desk sees the RBA's hawkish tilt (4.60% cash rate, minutes open to more hikes) as already priced. Meanwhile, Fed repricing has moved the rate gap back toward USD, which makes a soft jobs print the more asymmetric outcome.

Yen bid on crosses, 159 overhead in USDJPY

JPY leads 24h strength at 0.3 as risk-off lifts it against GBP and AUD. GBPJPY is at 208.787 after a failed breakout, and a recent headline puts 208.00 in focus. USDJPY at 158.057 is below the 159.00–159.05 September peak, where the desk flags intervention risk, and Koeda's 01:30 UTC speech is the main yen catalyst in Tokyo hours.

What moved

• EUR/USD +0.22% This extends the late dollar fade the USD desk flagged after Treasury yields jumped then reversed post-CPI. EUR is still near 17-month lows with RSI oversold.
• USD/JPY −0.14% The pair has eased from the near-159 high hit on CPI as JPY firms on risk-off crosses, and the desk sees Japanese intervention risk capping it at the 159.00 September peak.
• USTEC −0.59% Tech is still bleeding after hot CPI revived Fed-hike pricing, with Fed's Daly saying more rate hikes are likely and timing is still under consideration.
• XTI/USD −1.77% There is no single clear driver in our news feed for this leg: the API's -11.1M crude stock draw has not lifted prices, and the oil desk cites OPEC+ September output up 900k bpd as a cap.

Levels to watch

• AUD/USD 0.7000 D1 resistance and top of the two-week 0.6935–0.7000 range; the H4 read shows a false break above it rejected on CPI.
• NZD/USD 0.5580 D1 support and floor of the two-week 0.5580–0.5640 range; probed after CPI, with price now back at 0.56006.
• XAU/USD 4,110.00 First H4 resistance just above the 4103.5 last price, after the two-week 4066–4227 range broke lower; H4 RSI 34.

Ahead

• 00:30 UTC AUD Employment Change s.a. Forecast is 20K after 39.5K, and the AUD desk sees a soft print undercutting the RBA case as the outcome with cleaner follow-through for AUDUSD and AUDJPY, since a strong one must fight a firm USD.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. Forecast is 4.6%, unchanged, and the desk views a participation-driven rise as less damaging for AUDUSD and AUDNZD than a fall in employment.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Participation Rate Forecast is 67% vs 67.1% prior, and it sets how the unemployment rate is read for AUD crosses.
• 01:30 UTC JPY BoJ's Koeda speech With an October BoJ hike priced near ~10% and December near ~88%, a hawkish signal has more room to move the yen than caution does, exposing USDJPY, JPY crosses and JP225.
• 03:40 UTC GBP BoE's Pill speech Pill has questioned the roughly four BoE hikes priced over the next year, so dovish remarks have more room to weigh on GBP, already the weakest major at -0.33.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Gross Domestic Product (MoM) Consensus is a -0.1% contraction after 0.4%, and the GBP desk expects only a sizeable miss or an upside surprise to matter for GBPUSD around 1.3200 and EURGBP.

Into the next note, the watch is whether AUDUSD stays inside its 0.6935–0.7000 range through the 00:30 UTC jobs data, and whether Koeda shifts BoJ pricing with USDJPY at 158.057, below the 159.00 September peak.