Silver -5.81%, USTEC -2.97% as yen leads risk-off and WTI holds near $100

Daily Wrap, Thursday, 22 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices averaged -1.55% over 24h and JPY (0.79) and CHF (0.11) top the strength table, but gold fell 2.79% as haven flows went into Treasuries rather than bullion while oil rose 1.34%.

In short

• Risk-off on two fronts. Oil-fed Fed-hike fears flushed metals: XAGUSD fell 5.81% on the day to 54.604 and XAUUSD 2.88% to 4024.83. Separately, concerns over AI investment pulled USTEC down 2.97% and JP225 down 3.91%.
• The yen was the clear winner, with a strength score of 0.79. USDJPY is down 0.85% over 24h at 156.781, below the 157.50 H4 range floor. The dollar again failed near DXY 102.00 and lost ground only to JPY and CHF.
• Since the New York Open note, EURUSD has recovered to 1.12156 (+0.15%), back above 1.12. GBPUSD is still capped under 1.34. Overnight brings Japan CPI at 23:30 UTC, then UK retail sales and the euro-area and UK flash PMIs.

Themes

Metals trade as an oil-inflation proxy, not a rates play

Gold fell even as the US 10y yield dropped 15bp to 4.963%. The desk reads that as metals trading off oil and Fed-hike pricing, plus liquidation, rather than off yields. Silver underperformed (gold/silver ratio up to 73.03 from 71.41), and XPTUSD lost 3.61% on the day. Rebounds have so far needed oil de-escalation headlines.

AI jitters hit tech while defensives and the yen gain

Concerns over AI investment drove the equity selloff: USTEC fell 2.97% and US500 1.22% on the day, while US30 finished flat. KO, V and JPM each gained close to 2%. NFLX's 6.25% jump has no single clear driver in our news feed. The same risk-off flow lifted JPY to the top of the strength table.

Dollar capped at 102 again; EUR and GBP stuck at pivots

The dollar rebounded from three-week lows but failed again near DXY 102.00 and faded late, gaining only against risk-sensitive FX. That let EURUSD climb back to 1.12156 despite French spreads near 2011 highs. GBPUSD at 1.33933 has still not closed above 1.3400 since 15 Sep. CAD stayed firm on oil, with USDCAD at 1.40097 near its lowest since 21 Sep.

What moved

• XAG/USD −5.81% Liquidation through the $54.77 YTD low as drone strikes on oil infrastructure lifted inflation fears and December Fed-hike odds near 90%; it fell even as Treasury buying pulled yields lower.
• XAU/USD −2.88% Broke its three-week range floor as WTI near $100 reinforced higher-for-longer Fed pricing and AI-related credit jitters sent haven flows into Treasuries instead of gold.
• USTEC −2.97% Concerns over AI investment hit equities, with META down 3.52% and NVDA down 1.42% on the day; the platform flagged a 0.96% drop in 60 minutes at 15:06 UTC.
• JP225 −3.91% Tokyo stocks took the AI-led risk-off, and the yen outperformed across the board at the same time; the day's range ran at 1.74 times normal.
• USD/JPY −0.85% AI-led risk-off and falling US Treasury yields drove the yen higher, breaking USDJPY out of its 157.50–159.00 range.
• XTI/USD +1.32% Drone strikes on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field and Russian oil infrastructure, IRGC claims of vessels hit near Hormuz, and the US withdrawing non-emergency staff from the Gulf kept crude bid; it peaked at 101.07 before settling at 99.98.

Releases

• USD Initial Jobless Claims 194K. The dollar rebounded from three-week lows into the US session but faded late, and USDJPY is still down 0.85% over 24h, so the beat added a mild hawkish tilt without changing direction.
• EUR Consumer Confidence -17.9. The miss added to French-spread pressure as EURUSD slipped below 1.1200 at the US open, but the pair has since recovered to 1.12156 and is down just 0.15% over 24h.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 4,019.20 Only D1 support listed. The day's low of 4020.96 came within touching distance after the 4066–4227 three-week range floor gave way.
• XAG/USD 54.77 H4 support at the YTD-low area. Price at 54.604 now trades below it after the 57.00–58.60 range broke lower; H4 RSI is 30.5.
• USD/JPY 156.69 First H4 support beneath price after the 157.50 range floor broke; H4 RSI is 30 within a lower-high sequence from 158.95.
• GBP/USD 1.3400 H4 resistance where the uptrend has stalled in a tight consolidation under the 1.3419 high; no daily close above it since 15 Sep.
• EUR/USD 1.1180 First D1 support inside the 1.1113–1.1269 three-week base; momentum is stalling near the lows of the downtrend from the Aug 21 high.

Ahead

• 22:00 UTC AUD S&P Global Services PMI No forecast is given (previous 51.9). AUDUSD sits at 0.70182 after snapping a four-day rally, with RBA Governor Bullock speaking at 10:00 UTC Friday.
• 23:01 UTC GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Seen at -15 from -13, this is the first UK consumer read ahead of retail sales, with GBPUSD pinned under 1.34.
• 23:30 UTC JPY National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Core is expected to jump to 2.1% from 1.7%. With a December BoJ hike largely priced, a soft print is the bigger risk to USDJPY's break below 157.50; the yen crosses are also exposed.
• 06:00 UTC GBP Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast at -0.1% after 0.5%. A November BoE hike is ~95% priced, so a soft print matters more via the ~48% December odds for GBPUSD and EURGBP.
• 07:30 UTC EUR HCOB Services PMI The 07:30 UTC set is seen at 53.1 from 52.9. With ~75bp of ECB hikes already priced, the desk sees more room for a miss to weigh on EURUSD than for a beat to lift it.
• 08:00 UTC EUR HCOB Services PMI The 08:00 UTC set, likely the euro-area aggregate, is forecast at 52.8 from 53, with EURUSD back just above 1.12 into the release.
• 08:30 UTC GBP S&P Global Services PMI Seen at 51.8 from 52.1, it closes out the UK data run after retail sales and sets the tone for sterling's test of 1.34.

Watch whether Japan's 23:30 UTC CPI keeps USDJPY below 157.50 and whether WTI holds near $100, which the desk sees as the main driver of metals into UK retail sales and the morning PMIs.