Euro slips under 1.12 and gold sits below its range floor as oil holds above $100

New York Open, Thursday, 22 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Risk-off: Indices are down 0.93% on average over 24h, the yen leads strength at 0.65 with the franc second at 0.15, and gold is down 1.75% while oil is up 0.89%. That is defensive, but it is oil-led rather than a classic haven bid into metals.

In short

• London was a euro sell-off, not a yen story. EURUSD fell 0.49% since the London Open note to 1.1196, just under 1.12 D1 support, on high oil and French fiscal stress. FRA40 dropped 0.9% over the same window and EURJPY is down 0.98% on the day.
• Metals extended lower with WTI (XTIUSD) at 100.46, up 1.8% on the day. Gold lost a further 0.6% to 4065.46, just under the 4066 floor of its three-week range, and silver is down 3.85% on the day at 55.738. Oil-fed Fed hike bets remain the driver.
• No HIGH-impact US data today. The US slot is jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K, prev 199K). The bigger event is BoE Governor Bailey, now at 13:00 UTC, with GBPUSD at 1.33675 after easing off the 1.3410 high.

Themes

The euro is London's weak link

EURUSD fell 0.49% since the last note to 1.1196, under the 1.12 D1 support, while FRA40 lost 0.9% and EURJPY is down 0.98% on the day. Our EUR digest ties this to French fiscal stress and high oil, and it lists four successively lower October highs capping the upside. Panetta at 12:15 UTC, Moody's on France on Friday and tomorrow's flash PMIs are the next tests.

Oil above $100 keeps metals under pressure

XTIUSD is at 100.46, up 1.8% on the day, after drone strikes on Saudi and Russian infrastructure and IRGC vessel attacks near Hormuz. That oil channel feeds Fed hike bets, which outweigh a softer dollar for metals. Gold at 4065.46 is just below the 4066 floor of its range, silver is down 3.85% and platinum 2.93% on the day. Our digests note that de-escalation headlines have repeatedly triggered sharp squeezes in gold and silver.

Bailey, then a defensive US open

GBPUSD has slipped 0.29% since the last note to 1.33675, below the 1.3410 swing high, as Bailey's 13:00 UTC speech nears with second-hike odds near 48%. US index futures are on the back foot, with US500 down 0.97% and USTEC down 1.62% on the day, into claims at 12:30 UTC. The yen remains the strongest currency, and USDJPY at 157.076 is still below its old 157.50 range floor.

What moved

• EUR/USD −0.49% The euro gave up early gains as higher oil prices and French fiscal and protest risk weighed, per our EUR digest and the 'Euro gives up early gains' headline.
• FRA40 −0.90% French fiscal stress, with the 10y OAT around 5% and Moody's France review due Friday, is the backdrop our EUR digest flags, alongside a broader 'turmoil in bond markets' headline.
• EUR/JPY −0.98% Euro weakness met a broadly bid yen, which is backed by lower US yields and BoJ hike bets after Himino's hawkish remarks; the platform flagged two sharp drops at 07:11 and 09:56 UTC.
• XAU/USD −0.60% Gold is testing its roughly three-month low as Middle East escalation keeps oil high and reinforces higher-for-longer and December Fed hike pricing, even with lower yields.
• XAG/USD −3.85% The same oil-driven inflation and Fed-tightening fears broke silver out of its week-long range, and our digest shows it underperforming gold.

Releases

• TRY CBRT Interest Rate Decision 36%. The cut landed exactly in line with forecast, and with no TRY pairs on our price board there is no measurable reaction to report.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1200 D1 support inside the two-week 1.1113–1.1285 consolidation; price now trades just beneath it.
• XAU/USD 4,019.20 The only D1 support listed below the three-week 4066–4227 range, whose floor is now under test.
• GBP/USD 1.3364 Nearest H4 higher-low support in the uptrend from 1.3137, sitting just under the current price after the stall at 1.3410.
• USD/JPY 157.50 Former floor of the 157.50–159.05 range that held since late September; price is now below it, with today's low at 156.684.

Ahead

• 12:15 UTC EUR ECB's Panetta speech A December ECB hike is in the curve, so any dovish trim of that pricing would land on a euro already sitting at 1.1196, just below 1.12 support.
• 12:30 UTC USD Initial Jobless Claims Forecast is 200K against 199K prior. It is a read on labour cooling ahead of next week's FOMC, with the dollar, gold and US indices exposed to any shift in December hike pricing.
• 13:00 UTC GBP BoE's Governor Bailey speech A November hike is ~95% priced, so the market will be listening for clues on a second hike by December (~48% odds). Our GBP digest sees more room for a sharper sterling drop on dovish pushback than a rally on in-line comments.
• 14:00 UTC EUR Consumer Confidence Forecast is -17 vs -16.5 prior. It is a second-tier print, but it lands on a euro already heavy on fiscal and oil concerns.

Watch Bailey at 13:00 UTC for the December-hike signal in sterling, and whether gold can hold around its 4066 range floor while WTI sits above $100.