US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC test the dollar after Europe's PMI misses hit FRA40

New York Open, Friday, 23 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Mixed: Stocks are heavy, with indices averaging -0.74% over 24h, and oil is up 1.34%, yet havens are not clearly bid: CHF is the weakest major at -0.23 and JPY is only +0.09, while oil-linked CAD leads at 0.22.

In short

• The US day turns on the 13:45 UTC S&P Global flash PMIs (Services f/c 57.9, Manufacturing f/c 55.6), then UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1-yr f/c 4.7%). Canada retail sales (f/c 1.3%) land first at 12:30 UTC, with USDCAD sitting at 1.39991.
• London was about Europe's growth miss. Euro area PMIs missed across the board, with a composite of 51.9 vs 52.7, and France contracted again at 48.4 vs 50.5. FRA40 is down 1.11% since the London Open and EURUSD is 0.15% lower at 1.11937.
• UK retail sales fell 0.4% vs -0.1% forecast and UK PMIs beat (composite 53.1 vs 51.8), but GBPUSD still slipped 0.13% to 1.33717 as the BoE hike looks priced. USDCHF is up 0.3% to 0.8242, making CHF the weakest major.

Themes

US PMIs decide whether the dollar's soft patch resumes

The USD is soft for a fourth day near DXY 101.60 after failing at 102.00, though it regained ground against EUR, GBP and CHF during London. The desk sees hawkish Fed expectations as fully priced, so strong PMIs mostly confirm the price while soft prints or tame inflation expectations have more room to trim hike odds. USDJPY at 156.896 and gold near $4,000 are the cleanest gauges of that.

Europe stalls, the UK beats, and neither currency gains

Euro area PMIs missed across the board, France contracted for a second month and French spreads sit at 15-year wides, which leaves FRA40 down 1.13% on the day. UK PMIs beat, but weak retail sales and a fully priced November BoE hike left GBPUSD 0.2% lower on the day. The policy gap is showing up in EURGBP at 17-month lows rather than in cable.

Oil above $100 keeps CAD on top and metals heavy

XTIUSD is at 101.58, up 1.63% on the day after touching 102.21, on Hormuz incidents and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. The desk calls the bid a sizeable, headline-fragile geopolitical premium. CAD leads the strength table at 0.22, while silver is down 3.22% over 24h at 53.981 as oil-driven inflation fears and December Fed-hike bets dominate.

What moved

• FRA40 −1.11% France's composite PMI contracted again at 48.4 vs 50.5 with French spreads at 15-year wides, per the EUR digest, after a 0.72% 15-minute drop was flagged at 07:11 UTC.
• EUR/USD −0.15% Euro area PMIs missed across the board, with services the weak spot, leaving the pair pinned near the 1.1200 lows of its range as the USD recovered.
• GBP/USD −0.13% Weak September retail sales and a muted response to the PMI beat suggest a November BoE hike is already in the price, per the GBP digest and the 'Pound underperforms despite upbeat UK flash PMI' headline.
• USD/CHF +0.30% The pair is bouncing off one-month lows near 0.8190 after three straight down days as the USD claws back losses, per the CHF digest.
• XAU/USD +0.15% Gold has climbed back from the 3986.7 three-month low to hold the $4,000 area, though the desk sees bears still in control on oil-driven inflation fears and December Fed-hike bets.

Releases

• GBP Retail Sales (MoM) -0.4%. GBPUSD barely reacted to the miss and is down 0.13% since the London Open at 1.33717, near the 1.33688 day low.
• EUR HCOB Composite PMI 48.4. France's second straight contraction fed into FRA40, the weakest index in our set at -1.11% since the London Open.
• EUR HCOB Services PMI 51.7. Germany's services miss added to euro pressure on the crosses, with EURJPY down 0.15% since the London Open at 175.625.
• EUR HCOB Composite PMI 51.9. EURUSD is down 0.15% since the London Open at 1.11937, holding just above the 1.11846 day low.
• GBP S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1. An 8-month high bought GBP little against the USD, but it helped push EURGBP to fresh 17-month lows; the cross is at 0.83713.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1185 Top of the flat 1.1180–1.1190 floor that lower highs from 1.1269 are compressing into; the day low is 1.11846.
• USD/CAD 1.4000 The round-figure D1 support, which a six-session slide is testing as 50% of the September rally; price is just under it at 1.39991 into Canada retail sales.
• USD/CHF 0.8243 First H4 lower-high resistance in the downtrend from the 0.8395 double top; price is at 0.8242 after basing at 0.8192.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 Psychological H4 support just above the 3986.72 three-month low, defended on today's dip after the multi-week range floor broke.

Ahead

• 12:30 UTC CAD Retail Sales (MoM) A rebound to 1.3% from -0.7% is expected, with USDCAD at the 1.40 pivot after a seven-session slide and about 20bp of BoC tightening priced for Oct 28.
• 13:45 UTC USD S&P Global Services PMI A dip to 57.9 from 58.8 is expected; the desk sees a strong print mostly confirming hawkish Fed pricing, while a soft one has more room to extend the USD correction across EURUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD.
• 13:45 UTC USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Forecast at 55.6 from 55.9, a further read on whether US activity is moderating as the PMI preview headline expects, ahead of next week's Fed decision.
• 14:00 UTC USD UoM 1-year Consumer Inflation Expectations Seen steady at 4.7%; with oil above $100 this is the most direct read on rate-path risk for gold, silver and BTCUSD.
• 14:00 UTC USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Expected unchanged at 46.3, a depressed level that keeps the consumer side of the US growth story in focus for the USD and US indices.
• 14:00 UTC EUR ECB's Cipollone speech Any reaction to today's PMI misses could shift the December hike pricing the desk sees at risk into the Oct 29 ECB meeting, with EURUSD and the euro crosses exposed.

Until the next briefing, the focus is whether the 13:45 UTC US PMIs and 14:00 UTC inflation expectations confirm or undercut the hawkish Fed pricing that gold, the yen and EURUSD's 1.1180–1.1190 floor are all trading off.