Oil above $100 routs metals; RBNZ, BoC, Fed and ECB all decide next week

Week in Review, Friday, 23 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Mixed: Indices averaged -0.37% and gold -0.72% over 24h while oil jumped 4.36%; JPY (+0.06) held up but CHF (-0.52) was the weakest major, so this reads as oil-driven inflation stress rather than a clean flight to safety.

In short

• Oil drove the week. Gulf attacks lifted XTIUSD 4.16% to 104.33 and broke the $95-$101 band, which revived higher-for-longer Fed fears. That hit precious metals hard: XAGUSD fell 5.34% and XAUUSD 4.04% to below $4,000.
• Equities wobbled on AI and megacap doubts, with META down 9.04%, GOOGL down 5.33% and UK100 down 1.93%, while US30 still gained 0.56%. Havens split: USDJPY fell 0.72%, but CHF ended Friday as the weakest major.
• Data split FX. Hot UK CPI and PMIs pushed EURGBP to 17-month lows, Europe's PMI misses kept EURUSD pinned near 1.12, and RBA/BoC hike bets lifted AUDUSD 1.31% while USDCAD fell 0.89%. Next week: RBNZ and BoC on Wednesday, the Fed late Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday.

Themes

Oil's risk premium rewrote the inflation story

Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a tanker hit leaving Hormuz pushed WTI out of its $95-$101 Monday-to-Thursday band, while Brent settled up about 4% near $113.17. ING flags that prices are running on supply fear rather than fundamentals. That leaves weekend gap risk in both directions on the Monday open.

Metals liquidated even as yields eased

Gold hit a three-month low at $3,975 and silver a yearly low at $53.03, with the gold/silver ratio rising to 74.58. Oil-fuelled higher-for-longer fears outweighed falling Treasury yields. CFTC gold net longs were trimmed to 199.9K from 207.9K, but the remaining long base is sizeable.

UK firms up as Europe softens

UK CPI at 3.5%, firm labour data and an 8-month-high composite PMI cemented November BoE hike bets, pushing EURGBP to 17-month lows. Euro area PMIs missed across the board and France stayed in contraction at 48.4. French spread risk keeps EUR heavy, though a crowded spec short at -134.5K tempers follow-through.

A central bank gauntlet from Wellington to Tokyo

Wednesday brings Australian CPI, then the RBNZ (f/c 3%), the BoC (f/c 2.5%) and the Fed (f/c 4%). The ECB follows Thursday, and the desk's JPY digest flags a BoJ decision around 03:00 UTC on Oct 30 with a 1.25% hold expected. With hikes and holds largely priced, guidance is the swing factor across AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY.

What moved

• XTI/USD +4.16% Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, Aramco clearing its Dhahran HQ and a tanker hit leaving Hormuz pushed WTI through $100 to a 22-week high.
• XAG/USD −5.34% Thursday's ~5.8% collapse extended to a yearly low at $53.03 as oil-fuelled Fed-hike bets weighed and some traders appear to have sold silver to cover equity losses.
• XAU/USD −4.04% Gold traded oil and inflation risk rather than yields or haven demand, sliding to a three-month low at $3,975 with December Fed-hike odds around 78%.
• META −9.04% No META-specific item in our feed; the desk's digests cite AI-valuation worries and disappointing megacap earnings weighing on tech this week.
• AUD/USD +1.31% Hawkish RBA pricing and a lift from RBNZ hike bets kept AUD near monthly highs despite a sharp contraction in October PMIs.
• USD/CAD −0.89% Higher oil and consensus for an October BoC hike fuelled a multi-session CAD rally that took USDCAD below 1.4000 to a one-month low.

Releases

• CNY Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 4.5%. Monday's beat, alongside stronger retail sales and industrial output, opened a week in which AUDUSD rose 1.31%, though our digests credit RBA pricing rather than China for the move.
• CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.1%. The miss didn't stop CAD's rally, with USDCAD down 0.89% on the week, but core easing to 2.2% is why TD and RBC still see a BoC hold as viable.
• GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) 4.7%. It opened a run of firm UK data that left EURGBP down 0.63% on the week at 17-month lows.
• GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.5%. Together with core at 2.8% vs 2.7% forecast, it helped make a 25bp November BoE hike to 4.00% near-consensus.
• NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.7%. The soft print broke a five-day NZD rally and capped NZDUSD below 0.5700, though the pair still ended the week up 0.88%.
• EUR HCOB Composite PMI 51.9. EURUSD posted a third straight daily loss around 1.1200 and FRA40 fell 0.85% on the day as France stayed in contraction.
• GBP S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1. The 8-month high pushed EURGBP to ~0.8360, but GBPUSD still slipped 0.17% on the day as the dollar firmed.
• USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 56. The 53-month high revived dollar demand: XAUUSD dropped 1.06% in the following hour per a platform alert, and USDCHF ended the day up 0.58%.

Levels to watch

• XAU/USD 3,942.64 D1 support beneath the broken $4,000 pivot after the October range gave way; price sits at 3995.73.
• XAG/USD 53.016 H4 support at Friday's fresh yearly low, at the end of a lower-high sequence from 61.44.
• USD/JPY 156.08 H4 support at the five-week low, with rebound attempts so far stalling under 157.16.
• USD/CAD 1.4000 D1 support at the round number, tested after the triple top at 1.4293–1.4299 broke.
• EUR/USD 1.1113 D1 support at the floor of the three-week 1.1113–1.1269 base within a lower-high chain from the Aug 21 high.
• AUD/USD 0.7045 H4 resistance just above the 0.7036 monthly high, capping a higher-high, higher-low sequence since 0.6894.

Ahead

• 00:30 UTC AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY) Forecast 4.2% from 4%, with a November RBA hike only ~57% priced and specs adding AUD shorts, so AUDUSD and the AUD crosses are directly exposed.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A hike to 3% from 2.75% is the base case and mostly priced after the soft CPI, so guidance is what moves NZDUSD and AUDNZD.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision Consensus is a hike to 2.5% from 2.25% after CAD's rally, so a hold, which TD and RBC see as viable, is the bigger surprise risk for USDCAD.
• 18:00 UTC USD Fed Interest Rate Decision A hold at 4% is fully priced, so December-hike signalling decides whether crowded USD longs extend or unwind, with USDJPY, gold and silver most exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) Forecast 3.1% from 3% the day after the Fed, testing the oil-driven inflation narrative behind December-hike bets and the metals selloff.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement A hold is expected, and with CFTC EUR net shorts at -134.5K, a hawkish nod to a December hike could force EURUSD short-covering.

First the weekend Gulf headlines and how oil opens on Monday, then whether Wednesday's Fed hold carries a December-hike signal, the swing factor for crowded dollar longs, gold and the yen.