Five central banks in three days, with oil above $100 setting the backdrop

Week Ahead, Sunday, 25 October 2026. Published 19:00 UTC.

Quiet: The weekend tape is flat: indices average 0% over 24h, gold 0.02% and oil 0.01%, with strength scores only between EUR 0.09 and JPY -0.04. Last week's oil-driven, risk-off backdrop carries into the open unchanged.

In short

• Oil sets the tone into the open. WTI ended last week at 104.33, up 4.16%, after Gulf attacks broke its $95–101 band, and weekend headlines will decide whether that risk premium holds.
• Wednesday is the pivot. The RBNZ is expected to hike to 3% and the BoC to 2.5%. A Fed hold at 4% is fully priced, USD longs are crowded and December guidance is the swing factor.
• Thursday brings US Core PCE, Q3 GDP and an ECB expected to hold at 2.5%. Friday has Tokyo CPI and then the BoJ, expected to hold at 1.25%. The BoE on Nov 5 sits just past this week.

Themes

A Fed hold that has to sound hawkish

A 4.00% hold is fully expected on Wednesday, and FX is meaningfully long USD into it, so the hold itself is priced. An explicit December-hike signal is what would extend dollar strength; a statement with no forward guidance leaves crowded longs exposed. Tuesday's Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) and Thursday's Core PCE (f/c 3.1% y/y) and GDP (f/c 3.2%) bracket the decision.

Oil risk premium versus precious metals

WTI broke above its $95–101 band on Gulf supply attacks. ING sees the move driven less by fundamentals, so a credible de-escalation headline could unwind it. Gold has been trading inversely to oil: it sits at 3995.73 after a 4.04% weekly fall, with speculative longs still large at 199.9K, and silver sits near $54 after a $53.03 yearly low.

Commodity-bloc hikes face a high bar

The RBNZ (f/c 3% from 2.75%) and BoC (f/c 2.5% from 2.25%) are both expected to hike on Wednesday, and both moves are largely priced. A soft NZ CPI raised the bar for Kiwi upside, and a BoC hold, which TD and RBC see as viable, is the bigger CAD surprise. Australia's Q3 CPI (f/c 4.2% y/y) lands hours earlier, with November RBA hike odds only about 57% and spec AUD shorts at -127.3K.

ECB and BoJ: crowded positions into expected holds

The ECB is expected to hold the deposit rate at 2.5% on Thursday, with EUR spec shorts at -134.5K and RSI near oversold. That makes a tone validating a December hike the squeeze risk, while French spreads remain the downside trigger. The BoJ is expected to hold at 1.25% on Friday after Japan's CPI moved above 2%, and with yen longs grown to ¥69.9K, a hold with no hint risks an unwind in USDJPY.

What moved

• XTI/USD +4.16% Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a tanker hit leaving Hormuz pushed WTI through its $95–101 band to a 22-week high.
• XAG/USD −5.34% Oil-driven Fed hike bets, high yields and AI-related equity liquidation took silver to a $53.03 yearly low, and the gold/silver ratio rose to 74.58.
• XAU/USD −4.04% Oil above $100 kept December Fed hike odds near 78%, so bullion stayed offered even as Treasury yields fell and closed the week just under $4,000.
• AUD/USD +1.31% Hawkish RBA repricing outweighed October flash PMIs that fell into contraction (Composite 47.7).
• EUR/GBP −0.63% Hot UK CPI and an 8-month-high UK composite PMI, against Eurozone PMI misses, drove the cross to 17-month lows near 0.8360.

Releases

• GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.5%. The beat cemented November BoE hike bets and fed the slide that left EURGBP down 0.63% on the week at 17-month lows.
• NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.7%. The miss broke a five-day Kiwi rally and undercut the RBNZ's 3.9% projection, though NZDUSD still finished the week up 0.88%, capped just under 0.5700.
• CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3.1%. Core easing to 2.2% led TD and RBC to call a BoC hold viable, but oil kept CAD bid and USDCAD fell 0.89% on the week.
• EUR HCOB Composite PMI 51.9. EURUSD posted a third straight daily loss around 1.1200 and ended the week down 0.29%.
• GBP S&P Global Composite PMI 53.1. The 8-month high pushed EURGBP to about 0.8360, but GBPUSD still slipped back under 1.3400 as strong US data and Iran tension lifted the dollar.
• USD S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 56. The 53-month high firmed the dollar, and XAUUSD was flagged down 1.06% in the hour around the print.

Ahead

• 09:00 UTC EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey Credit conditions feed into Thursday's ECB meeting, with EUR already heavy after last week's PMI misses.
• 17:00 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech Lagarde's last public remarks before Thursday's decision could tilt December-hike expectations and EURUSD near 1.1200.
• 00:15 UTC AUD RBA Governor Bullock speech It lands minutes before Q3 CPI, with November RBA hike odds only about 57% and AUDUSD sitting on last week's 1.31% gain.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY) Forecast is 4.2% from 4%. A hot print could force short-covering given spec AUD shorts of -127.3K.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) Previous was 3.6%, no forecast given. The core gauge the RBA watches most closely for a November hike.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A hike to 3% from 2.75% is expected and largely priced, so a hold would unwind a large move in NZDUSD.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement Guidance on further hikes decides whether the Kiwi gets upside beyond a priced-in hike.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Review Released with the decision and read alongside the statement for the RBNZ's rate path.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision A hike to 2.5% from 2.25% is consensus after a seven-session CAD rally, so a hold is the bigger surprise for USDCAD.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Monetary Policy Statement The wording on further tightening matters after core CPI eased to 2.2%.
• 13:45 UTC CAD BoC Monetary Policy Report New BoC projections will show how much weight oil above $100 carries in its inflation outlook.
• 14:30 UTC CAD BoC Press Conference Q&A can shift expectations for follow-up hikes and move CAD crosses.
• 18:00 UTC USD Fed Interest Rate Decision A hold at 4% is fully expected. With FX meaningfully long USD, the reaction rests on December guidance across USD pairs, gold and indices.
• 18:00 UTC USD Fed Monetary Policy Statement An explicit December-hike signal extends the hawkish narrative, while no forward guidance leaves crowded USD longs exposed.
• 18:30 UTC USD FOMC Press Conference Comments on oil-driven inflation risk will be read directly into XAUUSD and USDJPY.
• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY) Forecast is 3.1% from 3%, the day after the Fed. A hot print would back December-hike bets.
• 12:30 UTC USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM) Forecast is 0.3% from 0.2%. The monthly pace tests the Fed's hawkish-hold message.
• 12:30 UTC USD Gross Domestic Product Annualized Forecast is 3.2% from 2.2%. A strong print adds to the US-versus-Europe growth gap weighing on EURUSD.
• 12:30 UTC USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index Previous was 6.1%. A second inflation read in the same release as PCE.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Rate On Deposit Facility A hold at 2.5% is expected. EUR spec shorts at -134.5K make a hawkish tone the squeeze risk for EURUSD.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate Expected unchanged at 2.65%, alongside the deposit rate.
• 13:15 UTC EUR ECB Monetary Policy Statement Any signal toward Commerzbank's 'one more hike' view, or concern over French spreads, will drive EUR.
• 13:45 UTC EUR ECB Press Conference Lagarde's read on soft PMIs versus inflation sets EURUSD and EURGBP into month-end.
• 23:30 UTC JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) Previous was 2.7%. It lands hours before the BoJ, after national CPI moved above the 2% target.
• 23:30 UTC JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) Previous was 3%. Underlying price pressure is key to whether the BoJ hints at December.
• 03:00 UTC JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision A hold at 1.25% is expected. With yen longs up to ¥69.9K, a hold with no hike hint risks an unwind in USDJPY.
• 03:00 UTC JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement Wording on a December move is what the market is leaning toward.
• 06:30 UTC JPY BoJ Press Conference The Governor's tone on falling JGB yields and hot CPI sets the yen into the week's close.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Forecast is 0.1% from 0.3%. It confirms or eases the growth worries behind last week's PMI misses.
• 07:00 UTC EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Previous was 1%. The annual pace frames the ECB's growth-inflation trade-off.

Until the next note, the key is whether WTI holds above the old $100–101 band top at the reopen, because oil is driving both the Fed hike debate and the slide in gold.