Thin, quiet Asia open: WTI holds 104.33 with no fresh Gulf news in our feed

Asia Open, Monday, 26 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Quiet: Risk gauges are flat: indices average 0% over 24h, gold is +0.02% and oil +0.01%, and with CHF at 0 and JPY at -0.04 in the strength table, there is no haven bid showing in thin trade.

In short

• Our feed shows no recent FX bars, so markets look shut or very thin. No holiday is listed for TSE, LSE or NYSE. Most moves since the Week Ahead note are a few hundredths of a percent; EURAUD is the exception.
• WTI sits at 104.33 and gold at 3995.73, just under $4,000. The desk has no fresh Middle East news since Friday's close, so headline risk on the reopen has not yet shown up in prices.
• The Asia-Pacific calendar is empty through Tokyo and Sydney. The first scheduled risks are ECB's Elderson at 06:00 UTC and Germany's IFO at 09:00 UTC (Business Climate f/c 89.8). The region's big days start Wednesday with AU CPI and the RBNZ.

Themes

Weekend gap risk still sits with oil

WTI is unchanged at 104.33, and the desk has no new Gulf headlines since Friday, so any weekend developments will show up as liquidity returns. The desk says gold has been trading inversely to oil and sits at 3995.73 after a roughly 4% weekly rout. CAD has leaned on the same oil tailwind into Wednesday's BoC.

Antipodeans firm into Wednesday's AU CPI and RBNZ

AUDUSD is at 0.7035 and NZDUSD at 0.57001, both pressing the tops of recent ranges. AU Q3 CPI (YoY f/c 4.2%) lands Wed Oct 28 at 00:30 UTC, and specs added AUD shorts to -127.3K, which the desk sees tilting risk upward. The RBNZ follows at 01:00 UTC with a hike to 3.00% expected and largely priced, so guidance carries more weight than the decision itself.

What moved

• EUR/AUD +0.38% EUR leads the 24h strength table at 0.09, but there is no single clear driver in our news feed, and the move came in thin trade.
• AUD/JPY +0.14% The desk says AUD is still supported by hawkish RBA repricing, while sliding JGB yields have capped the yen's gains despite hot Japanese CPI.
• XTI/USD +0.01% WTI is parked at 104.33. The desk notes no fresh news since Friday's breakout above the $95–$101 band on Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and a tanker hit leaving Hormuz.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 156.08 Floor of the 156.08–159.03 range in place since late September, and Friday's five-week low where a hammer candle formed.
• AUD/USD 0.70387 Top of the three-day 0.6994–0.7038 H4 range, which price is pressing at 0.7035 within a higher-high, higher-low sequence.
• XAU/USD 3,975.70 D1 support at Friday's three-month low, after the October range broke lower; D1 RSI is at 32.3.

Ahead

• 06:00 UTC EUR ECB's Elderson speech This is the first ECB voice of a week that includes Lagarde on Tuesday and an ECB decision where a hold is expected. EURUSD and EURGBP are exposed, with spec EUR shorts large at -134.5K.
• 09:00 UTC EUR IFO – Business Climate It is forecast at 89.8 vs 89.9 previous, after last week's German services PMI miss (51.7 vs 53.1). EURUSD is holding near 1.1200 with crowded shorts and near-oversold RSI.
• 09:00 UTC EUR IFO – Expectations There is no forecast and the previous reading was 90.4. It is the forward-looking read on whether the euro-area growth slowdown seen in the PMIs is deepening, with EUR crosses most exposed.

Until London opens, the tell is whether WTI holds above the old $100–$101 band top once liquidity returns, since oil has been setting the tone for gold, CAD and Fed-hike pricing.