Feed still dark into London; German IFO at 09:00 GMT is the first real test

London Open, Monday, 26 October 2026. Published 07:00 UTC.

Quiet: Risk gauges are flat over 24h: indices 0%, gold +0.02%, oil +0.01%. JPY is the weakest major on strength at -0.04 and CHF sits at 0, so the prices show no haven bid.

In short

• Our feed still shows no recent FX bars, so markets look shut or very thin. No holiday is listed for TSE, LSE or NYSE. Most moves since the Asia Open note are a few hundredths of a percent; EURAUD (+0.38%) and platinum (+0.41%) are the outliers.
• The desk's digests describe a softer dollar in Asia. DXY slipped toward 101.50 as US yields eased and Trump said 'there will not be a strike today' on Iran. Our quotes have not caught up: XAUUSD shows 3995.73 and XTIUSD 104.33, while the digests report gold back above $4,000 and WTI below $100.50.
• ECB's Elderson spoke at 06:00 with no notable market read. German IFO at 09:00 GMT is the only scheduled data in the window: Business Climate f/c 89.8 vs 89.9 previous. The week's real weight starts Wednesday with AU CPI, the RBNZ, the BoC and the Fed.

Themes

A softer-dollar story the tape hasn't printed yet

The digests describe DXY slipping from near 101.70 toward 101.50 in Asia as yields eased and haven demand faded after Trump ruled out an immediate Iran strike. Our price feed shows almost no change since the last note, with gold at 3995.73 against reports of a reclaim of $4,000. How prices reconcile once bars resume is the first thing London has to settle.

Iran de-escalation is draining haven and oil premium

Trump's 'there will not be a strike today' comment pulled WTI below $100.50 and pushed silver back below $54.00, per our desk. CHF gains are coming via USD softness rather than defensive flows. Houthi attacks on Riyadh's King Khalid airport keep some risk premium alive, and lower crude is removing part of CAD's oil tailwind.

Central-bank gauntlet starts Wednesday

AU Q3 CPI (y/y f/c 4.2%) and the RBNZ (f/c hike to 3.00%) land early Wednesday UTC, then the BoC (f/c hike to 2.5%) at 13:45 UTC and the Fed (f/c hold at 4.00%) at 18:00 UTC. The ECB follows Thursday at 13:15 GMT and the BoJ Friday at 03:00 UTC. With the decisions themselves largely priced, the desks see guidance as the swing factor across the board.

What moved

• EUR/AUD +0.38% EUR tops the strength table at 0.09 and AUD sits at -0.03. Our desk has EUR/USD firming to around 1.1220 on softer US yields, while AUD/USD stalled under its 100-day SMA after tagging a one-month high.
• XPT/USD +0.41% No single clear driver in our news feed.
• USD/CHF +0.58% With no fresh bars, the day figure largely reflects Friday's 0.56% rebound to ~0.8250. Our CHF desk reports the pair has since slipped back toward 0.8230 in Asia as the dollar eased on Fed-hold bets.
• XTI/USD +4.38% The feed's 104.33 sits well above what our oil desk reports: WTI fell from a 22-week high just under $103.00 to below $100.50 after Trump said there would be no strike 'today'. Treat the quote as stale until bars resume.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1200 H4 support at the top of the flat floor of the 1.1184–1.1269 range; price sits just above it at 1.1203.
• GBP/USD 1.3419 D1 resistance at the monthly high; the rebound from 1.3137 has stalled at the 50% retracement below it.
• USD/CHF 0.8225 D1 neckline of the 0.8382/0.8395 double top, already tested, with the rising trendline broken.
• USD/JPY 156.08 D1 support at the floor of the 156.08–159.03 range held since late September; the digest describes it as a five-week low.

Ahead

• 09:00 UTC EUR IFO – Business Climate Forecast is 89.8 vs 89.9 previous. Our EUR desk flags a miss as extending the soft-PMI narrative; EURUSD, EURGBP and EURCHF are most exposed.
• 09:00 UTC EUR IFO – Expectations There is no forecast; the previous reading was 90.4. The forward-looking gauge will shape how much of the euro's Asia bounce survives the European open.
• 09:00 UTC EUR IFO – Current Assessment There is no forecast; the previous reading was 89.5. It feeds the same German growth read that is weighing on EUR alongside French debt worries.

Watch whether FX bars resume and confirm the softer-dollar picture the desks describe from Asia, with German IFO at 09:00 GMT the first test for EURUSD around its 1.12 H4 floor.