Nothing on the US calendar today; dollar shorts trimmed into Wednesday's Fed
New York Open, Monday, 26 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.
Quiet: The risk gauge is flat because our feed is stale (indices 0%, gold +0.02%, oil +0.01% over 24h), while the desk's digests describe a modest risk-on tilt as crude eased after Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran.
In short
- No US data is scheduled for the 08:30 ET slot or the rest of today. Our feed still shows no recent FX bars, so markets look shut or very thin. No holiday is listed for NYSE, LSE or TSE, and NYSE has simply not opened yet. Treat our quoted moves as stale.
- London's main event was Germany's IFO. Business Climate beat at 90.2 vs a 89.8 forecast, driven by Expectations at 91.6, while Current Assessment slipped to 88.8. Together with Moody's keeping France at Aa3, the desk reports EUR/USD lifted to ~1.1210–1.1220, with early gains partly pared.
- The dollar firmed modestly as traders pared shorts ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. The digests have USD/JPY up around 157.36 and GBP/USD just below 1.3350. The next US data is Tuesday: durable goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6%) and consumer confidence at 14:00 UTC.
Themes
Dollar shorts pared into Wednesday's FOMC
The USD digest describes a modest dollar recovery as traders trimmed shorts before the Fed decision on Wed Oct 28 at 18:00 UTC. A hold at 3.75–4.00% is ~90% priced and a December hike 'virtually fully priced', so the bar for a hawkish surprise is high. The desk sees the dollar's risk running lower if Powell blurs the December commitment. With no US data today, Tuesday's durable goods (f/c 0.6%) and consumer confidence are the next read on the economy before the Fed.
Euro relief rally meets a known cap
Moody's holding France at Aa3 cooled French yields, and the IFO beat added support, but ING sees the euro's upside capped near 1.1270. Specs remain heavily net short (CFTC -134.5K) and sell-side views are uniformly bearish, which leaves squeeze risk into Thursday's ECB decision at 13:15 UTC. EUR/GBP bounced from Friday's 0.8361 17-month low to test 0.8400.
Oil premium trimmed; metals still fragile
WTI has corrected toward $100 after Trump ruled out an immediate Iran strike. The desk says the premium is trimmed, not gone, given Houthi threats against Saudi targets. Gold is consolidating near $4,000 after last week's slide to $3,975, and silver sits near $54 just above its $53.03 YTD low. The digests link both metals to oil via Fed-hike pricing. Easing crude is also eroding CAD's support into Wednesday's BoC decision at 13:45 UTC.
What moved
- EUR/USD +0.01% Our quote has barely moved, but the EUR digest reports a bounce to ~1.1210–1.1220 on the IFO beat and Moody's sparing France a downgrade, with gains partly pared.
- GBP/USD +0.02% The GBP digest says cable failed to hold early gains near 1.3373 and slipped just below 1.3350 as USD shorts were trimmed into the FOMC; our 1.33764 quote has not caught up.
- USD/JPY +0.01% Per the USD digest and the 'Japanese Yen underperforms as US Dollar bounces back' headline, USD/JPY rose to around 157.36 on pre-Fed short-covering in the dollar.
- XTI/USD +4.38% This figure looks stale: the oil digest and the 'WTI corrects to near $100' headline have crude giving back Friday's spike after Trump said 'there will not be a strike today' on Iran.
Releases
- EUR IFO – Business Climate 90.2. Our EURUSD quote is only +0.01% since the last note because the feed is stale; the desk reports EUR/USD lifted to ~1.1210–1.1220 and EUR/GBP to test 0.8400 on the beat, with gains partly pared.
- EUR IFO – Expectations 91.6. Expectations drove the headline beat, and the EUR digest credits them with the euro's early bounce. Our EURUSD price shows no real reaction yet.
- EUR IFO – Current Assessment 88.8. The softer current-conditions read tempered the beat. Per the EUR digest, early euro gains were partly pared; our quotes do not reflect it.
Levels to watch
- EUR/USD 1.1269 Top of the H4 1.1185–1.1270 range, which has formed lower highs over a flat floor; it coincides with the 1.1250–1.1270 cap cited in the EUR digest.
- GBP/USD 1.3353 Floor of the H4 1.3353–1.3419 range; the GBP digest has cable slipping just below 1.3350 this morning.
- USD/JPY 157.35 First H4 resistance under the broken 157.60–158.60 range, in a lower-high sequence; the USD digest puts spot around 157.36.
- XAU/USD 3,975.70 D1 support at last week's three-month low area, in a lower-high downtrend from the 4696.74 peak.
Until the next note, watch whether the dollar's pre-Fed short-trimming extends with no US data to drive it, and whether our feed resumes so the quotes catch up with the moves the desk describes.