Oil sheds Iran premium, tech lifts US stocks; yen weakest as dollar firms pre-Fed

Daily Wrap, Monday, 26 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices rose 0.64% on average over 24h while oil fell 2.17% and the yen sat bottom of the strength table at -0.3, a risk-positive mix, though gold's 0.55% gain and the dollar's top score of 0.24 show hedging into the Fed.

In short

• Risk tone improved after Trump said 'there will not be a strike today' on Iran. XTIUSD fell 2.17% over 24h to 102.06, and USTEC led indices with a 1.08% day gain, helped by the Anthropic IPO filing.
• The dollar was the strongest major (score 0.24) as shorts were trimmed into Wednesday's Fed, and the yen was the weakest (-0.3). USDJPY is at 157.502, up 0.44% over 24h, and EURUSD at 1.11749 is pressing its range floor. No economic releases fell in our window.
• Tomorrow brings the ECB Bank Lending Survey at 09:00 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6%). Wednesday then stacks AUD CPI, RBNZ, the UK Budget, the BoC and the Fed.

Themes

Oil premium leaks out, risk assets breathe

Trump's 'no strike today' remark took WTI off Friday's $103.28 five-month high, and XTIUSD now sits at 102.06. Cheaper oil eased yields and helped XAUUSD reclaim $4,000 at 4017.04, while CAD lost a key support and USDCAD is back above 1.40 at 1.40125. The desk notes crude stays headline-elastic, with Houthi and Hormuz threats keeping the upside tail fat.

Dollar short-covering, not fresh longs

USD topped the strength table as shorts were trimmed into Wednesday's 18:00 UTC Fed decision. EURUSD fell 0.24%, GBPUSD 0.23% and USDJPY gained 0.44% over 24h. With a hold priced and December hike odds near 83%, the desk sees a 'patient' statement as having more room to unwind the move than a hawkish hold has to extend it.

Tech carries US indices

USTEC gained 1.08% and US500 0.63% on the day, while US30 finished flat, so the bid was concentrated in tech. NVDA rose 1.38% and MSFT 1.33% on the day, against a backdrop of Iran peace hopes and the Anthropic IPO filing. UK100 also firmed 0.39%.

Antipodeans stall before Wednesday's double test

AUDUSD failed again at the 100-day SMA near 0.7035 and sits at 0.7015, despite RBA hawkishness and a heavy spec short. NZDUSD at 0.56817 stayed capped under 0.5700, even after TD switched to calling an RBNZ hike. AUD CPI lands at 00:30 UTC Wednesday and the RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC.

What moved

• USTEC +1.08% Risk-on flows from Iran peace hopes and the Anthropic IPO filing drove tech higher, with the platform flagging a 1.19% hourly jump at 15:01 UTC.
• US500 +0.63% The same Iran de-escalation and IPO-filing backdrop lifted the broad index, flagged with a 0.6% hourly rise at 15:01 UTC, while US30 finished flat.
• XTI/USD −0.78% Crude kept shedding geopolitical premium after Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran, though Houthi threats against Riyadh's King Khalid airport limited the pullback.
• XAU/USD +0.42% Easing oil and Treasury yields lifted gold off $3,978 and back above $4,000, but a firmer dollar and December hike odds of 83% kept the bounce tentative.
• XPT/USD −0.81% No single clear driver in our news feed. The platform flagged a 1.43% hourly spike at 15:06 UTC that was not sustained.
• EUR/AUD +0.37% AUD eased after AUDUSD failed again at the 100-day SMA near 0.7035, with caution ahead of Wednesday's CPI and the Fed, and the cross whipsawed through several 15-minute alerts in both directions.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1173 H4 floor of the 1.1180–1.1260 range, under test with price at 1.11749 after a run of lower highs from 1.1269.
• GBP/USD 1.3343 D1 support, which price is sitting on at 1.33425 after the pullback from the 1.3419 swing high.
• USD/JPY 157.60 Resistance on both H4 and D1, just above price as the pair retests the broken 157.50 range floor from below.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 H4 support and the desk's pivot, reclaimed today inside the tight 3975–4035 consolidation.
• USD/CAD 1.4000 H4 support at the round handle, where the seven-session downtrend has stalled into a base above 1.3968.

Ahead

• 09:00 UTC EUR ECB Bank Lending Survey EUR has little rate support left, with an ECB hold fully priced for Thursday and a December hike largely priced, so a weak credit read adds to downside room for EURUSD and EURGBP ahead of Lagarde's 17:00 UTC speech.
• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average There is no forecast and the previous reading was 18.5K. It is the freshest labour read before the Fed and feeds the December hike debate that is driving USD pairs and gold.
• 12:30 UTC USD Durable Goods Orders Seen at 0.6% after 0%. A beat would reinforce the hawkish-Fed risk the desk flags for USD, XAUUSD and BTCUSD.
• 12:30 UTC USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Seen at 0.6% vs 0.3% prior. The core read either confirms or undercuts the resilient-growth story behind 83% December hike pricing.
• 13:00 UTC USD Housing Price Index (MoM) Seen slowing to 0.1% from 0.3%. Housing softness is one of the few threads that could support a dovish Fed reading for USD and risk assets.

Tuesday's 12:30 UTC Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) is the last US data test before Wednesday's central-bank stack, with EURUSD's hold on its 1.1173 H4 floor the cleanest gauge of how far the dollar's short-covering runs.