Euro slides to 1.11441 as weakest major; US data and Lagarde next

New York Open, Tuesday, 27 October 2026. Published 12:00 UTC.

Risk-on: Risk appetite is modestly positive: indices average +0.64% over 24h, while the yen and franc are both soft at -0.06 and gold and oil are each down 0.13%.

In short

• EUR is the weakest major (-0.25). EURUSD is down 0.15% since the London Open at 1.11441, below the 1.1151 H4 swing low and near the 1.1113 range floor. NZD (0.27) and USD (0.16) lead.
• Metals recovered part of the Asia losses. XAGUSD is up 0.96% since the London Open at 53.314, off a day low of 52.657, and XAUUSD is back above $4,000 at 4009.89. USTEC is up 0.79% and UK100 is down 0.75% over the same window.
• There is no high-impact US data today. Durable Goods (f/c 0.6%) leads at 12:30 UTC, followed by HPI, New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence. Lagarde at 17:00 UTC is the day's only HIGH event before Wednesday's RBNZ, BoC and Fed.

Themes

Euro carries the dollar story into Fed week

EUR has replaced JPY as the weakest major (-0.25), and EURUSD is down 0.47% over 24h on French fiscal stress and pre-FOMC dollar demand. EURAUD dropped 0.53% within an hour around the ECB Bank Lending Survey, and EURGBP is off 0.11% since the London Open. ING sees the euro as undervalued and flags 1.1100 as key support, and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC is the next test of whether December ECB optionality stays alive.

Metals bounce off the lows, Fed still the hurdle

XAGUSD rebounded 0.96% since the London Open after a 52.657 low, and XPTUSD is up 0.61%, though both remain lower on the day. Gold is back above $4,000 even though CTAs are short across all signals, per TD. The desk notes that a hawkish Fed hold is largely priced, while pushback on December could force short-covering toward $4,092.

Wednesday's central-bank cluster lines up

AU Q3 CPI at 00:30 UTC and the RBNZ at 01:00 UTC open Wednesday, with a 25bp RBNZ hike about 90% priced and NZDUSD rejected at 0.5700 four sessions running. The BoC follows at 13:45 UTC with roughly 85% hike odds, so the desk sees a hold as the bigger CAD risk. The Fed decision at 18:00 UTC caps the day, with a hold priced and December guidance the focus.

What moved

• EUR/USD −0.15% The euro's slide extended to a fifth day on revived French bond stress, pre-FOMC dollar buying and a run of soft eurozone data, including M3 at 3.5% vs a 3.6% forecast.
• XAG/USD +0.96% Silver clawed back part of its drop after printing a fresh year-to-date low, with an upbeat dollar capping the rebound per our headlines.
• USTEC +0.79% US futures extended gains after Wall Street opened the week higher, and NVDA is up 0.85% over the same window.
• UK100 −0.75% No single clear driver in our news feed. It lagged the gains in FRA40 and the US indices during the London session.
• NZD/USD +0.32% Firming RBNZ hike bets lifted the kiwi into Wednesday's decision, helped by TD switching its call from a pause to a hike.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1113 Floor of the three-week 1.1113–1.1269 range, with price now trading below the 1.1151 H4 swing low.
• XAG/USD 52.657 Fresh year-to-date low set today, and the base of the current rebound.
• XAU/USD 4,000.00 Psychological pivot inside the tight 3976–4034 consolidation, regained after slipping below it in Asia.
• USD/CHF 0.8290 Range cap now being tested after a run of higher lows from the 0.8192 double bottom, with H4 RSI at 68.

Ahead

• 12:15 UTC USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average This is the most current private-payrolls read before the Fed, against a previous 18.5K, and it bears on USD crosses and US indices.
• 12:30 UTC USD Durable Goods Orders Forecast is 0.6% after 0%. It is the main pre-Fed growth check for a dollar already carrying a hawkish premium, with EURUSD and XAUUSD most exposed.
• 12:30 UTC USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation Forecast is 0.6% vs 0.3% previous. The core orders line will show whether any headline move reflects broad demand.
• 13:00 UTC USD Housing Price Index (MoM) A slowdown to 0.1% from 0.3% is expected, adding to the housing picture the desk is watching for any reference in the Fed statement.
• 14:00 UTC USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) No forecast is listed after a previous 6.4%. Any further housing deterioration would test the December-hike pricing behind the dollar.
• 14:00 UTC USD Consumer Confidence No forecast is listed. It is the last US sentiment read before Wednesday's Fed, with USD pairs and US indices exposed.
• 17:00 UTC EUR ECB's President Lagarde speech This is two days before Thursday's ECB decision, where a hold is priced. The desk's read is that a tone keeping December live has squeeze potential for a stretched euro, with EURUSD and the EUR crosses exposed.

Whether EURUSD holds the 1.1113 range floor through the US data and Lagarde at 17:00 UTC is the cleanest read on how much dollar strength the market carries into Wednesday's Fed.