Stocks and gold rise as oil eases; EUR weakest into AU CPI and RBNZ overnight

Daily Wrap, Tuesday, 27 October 2026. Published 21:15 UTC.

Risk-on: Indices averaged +0.73% over 24h, oil fell 1.09% and the yen was soft (-0.12), all consistent with better risk appetite. Gold's 1.08% gain was an oil-relief story rather than haven demand.

In short

• Risk appetite improved. USTEC rose 1.08% and JP225 2.16% on the day as AI-spending worries eased. WTI (XTIUSD) fell 1.13% to 100.94 on US-Iran de-escalation hopes.
• Cheaper oil lifted metals despite a firmer USD. XAUUSD is up 1.17% at 4060.18 off a 3989.2 low, and XAGUSD is up 0.94% after printing a 52.657 year-to-date low.
• USD (0.19) ranks behind only AUD (0.22) after firm US data, led by Durable Goods at 1.8% vs 0.6% forecast. EUR is the weakest major (-0.23), with EURUSD down 0.42% over 24h at 1.11266. Bullock, Australian CPI and the RBNZ decision come overnight.

Themes

Oil, not rates, is steering the metals

Gold and silver rose even though the USD and Treasury yields firmed, because WTI eased toward $100 on Middle East diplomacy and cooled inflation fears. CTAs are short gold across all signals, which leaves room for short-covering if oil keeps sliding. A renewed crude surge would revive Fed hike bets instead.

USD firm, EUR on the back foot into Fed and ECB

DXY extended a three-day rally to two-week highs above 102.00 on Durable Goods, CB Confidence at 91.7 and waning US-Iran peace-deal hopes. The 5Y auction clearing lower at 4.845% tempered the rally. EUR weakness amplified it: French OAT-Bund spreads widened to 161bp and French consumer confidence fell to 80 from 86. EURUSD is down 0.42% over 24h and GBPUSD is down 0.25% at 1.33072 into Wednesday's Budget.

Antipodean double header before the Fed

AUD leads the strength board but AUDUSD at 0.70248 remains capped near the 100-day SMA at 0.7035-0.7040, with CFTC net shorts deepening to -127.3K. NZDUSD has failed at 0.5700 for four straight sessions, and a plain RBNZ hike to 3% is largely priced. The forward guidance from both central banks matters more than the headline decisions.

What moved

• JP225 +2.16% Easing AI-related worries and better risk sentiment drove the gain, while a softer yen cut its safe-haven appeal, per the desk's JPY read.
• XTI/USD −1.13% Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey agreed to continue regional security talks, which lifted de-escalation hopes, and a DXY above 102.00 added mild pressure.
• XAU/USD +1.17% Gold bounced off 3989.2 as easing oil cooled energy-driven inflation fears, rising even as the USD and Treasury yields firmed.
• USTEC +1.08% Equities recovered as AI-spending worries eased, per the desk's AUD and JPY reads.
• XAG/USD +0.94% Silver rebounded from a fresh year-to-date low on the same oil relief, though it lagged gold as the gold/silver ratio rose to 75.19 from 74.43.

Releases

• USD Durable Goods Orders 1.8%. The beat helped extend the DXY rally to two-week highs above 102.00, and USD finished second on the strength board at 0.19.
• USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation 0.5%. The slight core miss was overshadowed by the headline beat, and the USD stayed firm.
• USD Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.3%. The desk counts it among the firm housing data that supported the USD into the Fed.
• USD New Home Sales Change (MoM) -0.6%. The level came in above expectations at 0.676M even as the monthly change dipped, so it did little to dent the firm-data story.
• USD ADP Employment Change 4-week average 16.8K. Our news feed shows no distinct market reaction to the softer weekly hiring figure.

Levels to watch

• EUR/USD 1.1113 Floor of the two-week 1.1113–1.1269 consolidation inside a lower-high, lower-low chain since mid-September; Scotiabank also flags it as key support.
• GBP/USD 1.3305 Mid-October base now being retested after lower highs and lower lows from the 1.3419 swing high.
• AUD/USD 0.7040 Flat cap over a higher-low sequence from the 0.6894 mid-month low; repeated failures here line up with the 100-day SMA.
• NZD/USD 0.5700 Upper area of the flat 0.5668–0.5710 range, rejected for four straight sessions.
• XAU/USD 4,087.20 First H4 resistance above the 3975–4034 base within the H4 downtrend; price has bounced toward it after retesting the broken range floor.

Ahead

• 00:15 UTC AUD RBA Governor Bullock speech She speaks 15 minutes before CPI, so any pre-commitment to a November hike, or caution over weak PMIs, would move AUDUSD and AUDNZD first.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY) A hot 4.2% is consensus after 4%. The desk flags a 'sell-the-fact' risk for AUD on an in-line print.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) Core matters more than headline for the November RBA hike call. Previous was 3.6%, and with speculators heavily net short AUD, a hot surprise would hit a crowded position.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (MoM) Forecast is 0.3% vs 0.2% previously. A soft print would undercut the RBA hike case and is the sharper downside risk for AUD, according to the desk.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A 25bp hike to 3% is about 90% priced, so NZDUSD's move hinges on whether the projected rate path validates further hikes.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement The rate track decides whether a plain hike becomes hawkish follow-through or a cautious disappointment for NZD.
• 10:00 UTC GBP Autumn Forecast Statement This is new Chancellor Healey's first Budget. OBR headroom and gilt issuance are the swing factor for GBPUSD, and EURGBP is the cleaner UK-specific read.

Bullock, the Australian trimmed-mean CPI and RBNZ guidance set the overnight tone. After that, the UK Budget, the BoC at 13:45 UTC and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC will show whether the USD can hold above 102.00.