AUD tops the strength board into Bullock, Australian CPI and the RBNZ decision

Asia Open, Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Published 23:30 UTC.

Risk-on: Risk appetite is still constructive: indices are up 0.79% on average over 24h, oil is down 1.41% and JPY is the second-weakest major (-0.16), but overnight trade has been near-flat.

In short

• Little has changed since the Daily Wrap and ranges are thin. USDJPY is at 157.986 on a range 0.16 of normal, and AUDJPY is up 0.12% on the day at 111.044.
• AUD is the strongest major (0.33). Bullock speaks at 00:15 UTC, then September CPI lands at 00:30 UTC: headline is forecast at 4.2% y/y vs 4% prior, and trimmed mean at 0.3% m/m vs 0.2%.
• The RBNZ decides at 01:00 UTC with a hike to 3% from 2.75% expected, so the guidance matters more than the move. NZDUSD sits at 0.56825, still under its 0.5700 cap. The Fed follows later Wednesday.

Themes

Back-to-back Antipodean tests in under an hour

Bullock, Australian CPI and the RBNZ all land between 00:15 and 01:00 UTC. In both cases the hike is largely priced, so the reaction rests on the core inflation detail and the RBNZ's guidance rather than the headlines. CFTC specs added to AUD shorts (-127.3K), which the desk flags as squeeze risk on a hot core print and sell-the-news risk on an in-line one.

Yen pinned near 158 ahead of Fed and BoJ

USDJPY sits just under 158 after recovering from 156.08, with the yen weak across the board for a third session. MUFG sees intervention as unlikely before 160, and a BoJ hold at 1.25% on Friday is fully priced. Wednesday's Fed tone is the next driver for JPY crosses.

What moved

• AUD/JPY +0.12% Hawkish RBA expectations have kept AUD a G10 outperformer, while the yen's haven bid keeps fading as risk appetite returns.
• USD/JPY +0.05% The yen stays soft into the Fed and BoJ, and FM Katayama's warnings that Tokyo is 'prepared to take decisive steps' are getting little traction below 160.
• XTI/USD −0.29% Hopes for Iran diplomacy keep trimming crude's risk premium, leaving WTI at 100.64, just above the $100 handle.

Levels to watch

• USD/JPY 158.09 First D1 resistance, just above spot, in a 156.08–159.03 range.
• AUD/USD 0.7040 Flat cap on the H4 range, with higher lows building beneath it since 0.6894.
• NZD/USD 0.5710 Top of the 0.5700–0.5710 zone that has capped the October rebound.

Ahead

• 00:15 UTC AUD RBA Governor Bullock speech Bullock speaks 15 minutes before CPI, so any pre-commitment toward a November hike would hit AUDUSD, AUDJPY and AUDNZD first.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Consumer Price Index (YoY) Headline is forecast at 4.2% vs 4% prior, a print the desk sees as largely priced alongside a November RBA hike.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Forecast is 0.7% vs 0.4% prior, adding detail to the headline print for AUD crosses.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (MoM) Forecast is 0.3% vs 0.2% prior; the core print matters more than the headline for RBA pricing, with specs heavily short AUD.
• 00:30 UTC AUD Trimmed Mean CPI (YoY) Previous was 3.6%, and the desk expects around the same, so a deviation shifts November RBA odds and moves AUD pairs.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Interest Rate Decision A hike to 3% from 2.75% is forecast and essentially fully priced, so NZDUSD and AUDNZD hinge on whether guidance beats the roughly two further hikes the market expects.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement The OCR track will show whether the RBNZ validates a 3.50% terminal rate, which TD now forecasts.
• 01:00 UTC NZD RBNZ Monetary Policy Review Look for the vote split and any sign of a pause, which the desk sees as having more room to move NZD than a plain hike.
• 07:00 UTC EUR GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Forecast is -31 vs -30.6 prior, the first European test for EUR, the weakest major (-0.23).

Watch Australia's trimmed mean against its 0.3% m/m forecast and whether the RBNZ's guidance beats the priced path, before attention turns to the Fed later Wednesday.