Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday, retesting post-RBA low.
Every session since Thursday's 0.7068 peak has printed a lower high. The RBA's dovish hike in Tuesday's Asia session and a London-open flush extended the slide to 0.6961. The NY-open rebound stalled at the 0.6997 lower high, just above the 50% retracement of the Mon-Tue leg, and the JOLTS beat pushed price back below the ema20 through NY hours. A marginal new week low at 0.6960 late in the session came with a higher RSI(14) low (~32 vs ~28 on Tuesday's London low), a mild bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has contracted to ~9 pips.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.6997, 0.7026
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.6960 week low, with the 0.6950 round number next, would void the divergence and confirm another lower low
Recovery through the ema20 and the 0.6997 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 0.7026 weekly open sits above
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; NY rebound capped below 0.7000.
Each session has printed a lower high since Thursday, and Monday's 0.7034 high just above the 0.7026 weekly open is the last swing top. The RBA's dovish hike in Tuesday's Asia session broke the 0.7000 handle, and London extended the drop to the 0.6961 week low. The NY rebound stalled at the 50% fib of the week's drop near 0.6997, then faded back below EMA(20) after firm US JOLTS, leaving price pinned just above the week low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.69614, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69972, 0.70256
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.6961 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.6950 round number
A reclaim of EMA(20) at 0.6978 and the 50% fib at 0.6997 would break the lower-high trendline
Acceptance back above 0.7000 and the 0.7026 weekly open would negate this week's downtrend read
AU PMIs at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 35 · price 0.69629
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; retesting the week low.
The week's drop from 0.7034 has printed lower highs since the weekly open at 0.7026. Monday's London slide broke 0.7000 in late NY hours, and the dovish RBA hike in the Asia session extended the drop to the 0.6961 week low at Tuesday's London open. The NY rebound stalled at 0.6997, a lower high near the 50% retracement, and faded after firm US JOLTS and factory orders. Price is back at the week low, below EMA(20) at 0.6978 and EMA(50) near 0.6995, with RSI(14) near 35 versus about 26 at the earlier low, a bullish divergence on the retest.
Support: 0.69614, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6978, 0.69972, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6961 week low confirms a lower low and extends the post-RBA slide toward the 0.6950 round number
H1 close above the 0.6997 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence, with the 0.7000 handle directly above
Pullbacks capped at EMA(20) near 0.6978 keep the downtrend structure intact
Reclaim of the weekly open at 0.7026 would negate this week's downtrend read
AU S&P Global PMIs at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; NY rebound rejected below 0.7000, retesting the 2-week low.
Highs have stepped lower since Thursday's 0.7043 cap. Monday's London session broke the late-week range, and the dovish RBA hike in Asia hours drove a fresh leg to the 2-week low at 0.6961 by London open. The NY rebound stalled at the 50% fib of the Mon–Tue decline near 0.6997, just under 0.7000, and after the strong US JOLTS print price slid back below ema20 to retest the low, with RSI(14) near 35 versus ~30 at the morning trough.
Support: 0.69614, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.69795, 0.69972, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 2-week low at 0.6961 confirms a lower low, with the 0.6950 round number the next reference
Reclaim of ema20 (~0.6980) and the 50% fib at 0.6997 would break the lower-high trendline sequence; the weekly open at 0.7026 sits above
AU S&P Global PMIs at 22:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services are the next USD data risk for the structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's week high; bounce failed at the 50% retrace.
Lower highs since Monday's 0.7034 week high. The 0.7000 psych handle gave way late in Monday's NY session, and the RBA's dovish hike in Asia hours extended the slide to the 0.6961 week low at London open. Today's NY rebound stalled at 0.6997, the 50% retrace of the week's decline and just under the descending lower-highs line. Price has since faded below EMA(20) near 0.6979 toward the 0.6966 NY low, with RSI(14) near 43 and price under EMA(50).
Support: 0.69655, 0.69614
Resistance: 0.6979, 0.69972, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 psych level and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6966 ny low and the 0.6961 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 0.6979 would put the 50% retrace at 0.6997 back in play
AU S&P Global PMIs at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7034 week high; bounce capped below 0.7000.
Since the 0.7034 week high, H1 has printed lower highs and lower lows. The 0.7000 handle gave way late in Monday's NY session, and the RBA's dovish hike in Asia extended the slide to the 0.6961 post-RBA low at London open. The NY-session bounce stalled at 0.6997, where the 50% fib of the weekly decline meets the lower-high trendline. The JOLTS beat then pulled price back toward the 0.6966 NY low, leaving it below the ema20 near 0.6983 and the 0.7026 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 36, off its post-RBA trough.
Support: 0.69655, 0.69614
Resistance: 0.6983, 0.69972, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6997 50% fib and the 0.7000 round number breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6966 NY low and the 0.6961 post-RBA low confirms a fresh lower low
Recovery through the weekly open at 0.7026 would neutralise this week's decline
AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP and ISM Services are the next USD-side risk for the structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; NY bounce capped at 50% retrace.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.7026 weekly open. The dovish RBA hike drove the Asia-session break below 0.7000, and the London open extended the move to the 0.6961 RBA low. The NY rebound stalled at 0.6997, the 50% fib of the Monday–Tuesday leg. The JOLTS beat then pushed price back under EMA(20) near 0.6981, with RSI(14) around 39, sub-50 but not oversold.
Support: 0.69614, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.69972, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6961 rba low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6950 round number
H1 close above the 0.6997 50% fib and the lower-highs line breaks the downtrend read, exposing the 0.7026 weekly open
Repeated failure at EMA(20) near 0.6981 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
AU Services/Composite PMI at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; rebound capped below 0.7000.
Lower highs and lower lows have run since Thursday's 0.7068 peak. The week opened at 0.7026, and price lost the 0.7000 psych handle during NY hours Monday. The dovish RBA hike in the Asia session, and an extension into London open, set the 0.6961 week low. The rebound then stalled at 0.6997, just under 0.7000 and the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-to-Tuesday fall, and firm US JOLTS in NY hours pushed price back below EMA(20) near 0.6987, with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.6973, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.7000, 0.7026
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.7000 psych and the 38.2% fib would break the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the weekly open at 0.7026 would neutralise this week's downtrend structure
Failure to hold the RBA low at 0.6973 exposes the week low at 0.6961; a break there confirms a fresh lower-low
AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; rebound capped below 0.7000.
AUD/USD has carved lower highs since Thursday's 0.7068 peak, faded from the 0.7034 week high, lost the 0.7000 handle in Monday's NY session and extended to a 0.6961 post-RBA low at the London open after the RBA's dovish 25bp hike. The rebound stalled at 0.6997 in the first hour of NY, at the 50% retracement of the week's leg and just shy of the round number and the lower-highs trendline. Price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 0.6988 with RSI(14) near 45, while the session's rising bounce lows around 0.6979 are still intact.
Support: 0.6979, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6988, 0.7000, 0.7034
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 round number and the lower-highs trendline breaks the downtrend structure, opening the path back to the 0.7034 week high
A sustained hold back above EMA(20) at 0.6988 would turn the stall into a second test of 0.7000
Failure to hold the bounce lows near 0.6979 puts the 0.6961 post-RBA low back in play; a break there confirms a lower-low
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC (f/c 47.8) and US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday; recovery from 0.6961 testing EMA20.
Lower highs have formed since Thursday's 0.7068 Asia high. Monday's London session broke the 0.7013 range floor, and the dovish RBA hike extended the slide into a sweep of the 0.6961 two-week low at Tuesday's London open. Price has since recovered into the 23.6–38.2% fib of the week's decline, stalling just under the 0.7000 psych level, and now sits on EMA(20) near 0.6988 with RSI(14) at 44 and EMA(50) overhead near 0.7005; the descending trendline from the 0.7068 high runs near 0.7011, just below the range floor.
Support: 0.69725, 0.69614
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70135, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7000 psych level and the descending trendline near 0.7011 would challenge the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.7013 range floor would put the 0.7026 weekly open back in play
Break below the 0.6973 rba low exposes the 0.6961 two-week low; a close beneath it confirms a lower low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday open; false break under RBA low reclaimed.
AUD/USD has set lower highs since Monday's 0.7034 Asia-session high, slipped under the 0.7000 psych level in Monday's NY session, and fell again after the RBA hike was read as dovish, first to the 0.6972 rba low and then to a 0.6961 week low at London open. The rebound since then has stalled just under the ema20 near 0.6989, which lines up with the 38.2 retracement of the week's decline and Tuesday's pre-London highs. RSI(14) has recovered to about 41 from the low 30s but is still below 50.
Support: 0.6972, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6989, 0.7000, 0.7026
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 / 38.2 zone at 0.6989 opens a retest of 0.7000 psych, with the weekly open at 0.7026 above
Failure to hold the 0.6972 rba low exposes the 0.6961 week low; a close below it confirms a fresh lower-low
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
AU Services/Composite PMI at 22:00 UTC and Wednesday's US midterm results are the next volatility risks
Lower-highs trendline from Monday's high remains intact unless price reclaims the 0.7000 area
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.7068 high.
From the weekly open at 0.7026, Monday's sessions broke below last week's 0.7013–0.7043 range. Rallies since Thursday's 0.7068 high have stalled at successively lower highs. Today's dovish RBA hike in the Asia session set the 0.6973 RBA low, and the slide carried to a 0.6961 week low into the London open despite a softer USD. Price has bounced but is still capped below EMA(20) near 0.6986, with RSI(14) recovering only to around 41.
Support: 0.6973, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.7000, 0.7026
What it said to watch
H1 close back above EMA(20) near 0.6986 would mark the first test of the lower-highs line
0.7000 round number aligns with the 38.2% fib of the week's decline; reclaiming it breaks the post-RBA breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.6961 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, followed by midterm results, could shift the USD side of this read
AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC is the next AUD-specific risk
11:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday's open · RSI 39 · price 0.69771
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.7000 after the post-RBA leg.
Since the 0.70256 weekly open, AUDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs and broke the 0.7000 psych level late in Monday's NY session. The RBA's 'dovish hike' during the Asia session set the rba low at 0.69725, and the London open extended the move to a 0.69614 week low. Price has recovered to 0.6977 but remains below both EMAs, with the fib 38.2 of the week's decline at 0.69891 sitting just above. RSI(14) near 39 has stayed below 50 on every bounce this week.
Support: 0.69725, 0.69614
Resistance: 0.69891, 0.7000, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7000 psych and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read
Rejection at the fib 38.2 (0.69891) would keep the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.69614 week low confirms a fresh lower-low; the 0.6900 trend line cited in the digest sits beyond
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and midterm results due Wednesday could shift USD tone during NY hours
AU Services/Composite PMI at 22:00 UTC is the next AUD-side catalyst
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's open; 0.7000 lost.
Each session has printed a lower high since the 0.7026 weekly open and the 0.7034 Monday high. The 0.7000 psych handle gave way into Monday's NY session, and the RBA's dovish 6-3 hike pushed the pair to the 0.6973 rba low in the Asia session. The London open then extended that to a 0.6961 week low before a partial recovery. The post-RBA bounce stalled at the 0.6989 lower high, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the week-high fib. Price holds below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69725, 0.69614
Resistance: 0.69891, 0.7000, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6989 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the sequence
Reclaim of 0.7000 psych would put the weekly open at 0.7026 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.6961 week low confirms another lower-low
US JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC and midterm results could materially shift USD tone
AU S&P Global PMIs at 22:00 UTC (f/c 47.7 composite)
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7068 peak; 0.7000 lost.
AUD/USD has printed successive lower highs since last week's 0.7068 peak, and Monday's London session broke the 0.7013–0.7043 range and the 0.7000 psych level. Today's dovish RBA hike (6-3 vote) drove an Asia-session drop to the 0.6973 RBA low, and a second leg at London open set a 0.6961 week low despite a softer USD. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.6990 and EMA(50) near 0.7000 with RSI(14) near 29, while the 0.6989 lower high capped the bounce at the 38.2% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 0.69614, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69725, 0.69891, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6989 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-highs sequence; reclaiming 0.7000 psych would shift the read to a range
Failure to hold the 0.6961 week low exposes the multi-month 0.6900 trend line
Price capped below the 0.6973 RBA low keeps the post-decision breakdown intact
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then AU PMIs at 22:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
US midterm results due Wed morning; a less-priced Republican hold would add USD risk
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7068 peak; last week's 0.7013 range floor broken.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since last Thursday's 0.7068 peak in Asia. Monday's London session broke the 0.7013 floor of last week's range, and price has stayed below the 0.70256 weekly open since. The dovish RBA hike (6-3 split, gloomy growth outlook) extended the slide to the 0.69725 rba low in Asia today, and AUD is not tracking USD softness. The London-open bounce to 0.6988 sits just under EMA(20) and the 0.7000 round number, with RSI(14) near 39 off its post-RBA trough.
Support: 0.69725, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7021, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.7000 round number and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs trendline and challenge the downtrend read
A rally into the 0.7021 lower high, near the 50% fib of the week decline, is the area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold the 0.69725 rba low confirms another lower low and puts the 0.69 handle in focus
US JOLTS and Factory Orders (15:00 UTC) plus overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC (f/c 47.8) is the next local catalyst for the post-RBA move
Lower highs from 0.7068; Thu–Fri base broke Monday.
The week high at 0.7068 printed in Thursday's Asia session after the post-FOMC lift, and every rally since has set a lower high. The Thu–Fri broken base at 0.7013–0.7014 gave way in Monday's London session, the 0.7000 round number was lost into NY hours, and the RBA's 'dovish hike' (6-3 split, growth downgrade) added a 27-pip Asia leg to the 0.6973 rba low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.6995 with RSI(14) near 30, and the week open at 0.7026 is 23 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69725, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70135, 0.70256
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.7000 round number and EMA(20) would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
A reclaim of the 0.7013 broken base (near the 38.2% fib) invalidates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.6973 rba low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 trend line
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AU Services PMI at 22:00 UTC (f/c 47.8) is a fresh catalyst around the rba low
Lower highs and lower lows; Thu–Fri range low broken Monday, 0.7000 lost.
AUD/USD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 0.70675 post-Fed peak. It broke the 0.70135 range low in Monday's London session and slipped under 0.7000 psych into the NY close, with each bounce capped by the lower-highs line. The fully priced RBA hike to 4.85% extended the slide in Asia through the 0.69877 Asia low to the 0.69725 RBA low, leaving price below EMA(20) near 0.6997 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) pressing 30.
Support: 0.69725, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.69877, 0.7000, 0.70135
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.7000 psych and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs line and bring the 0.70135 range low back into view
Reclaim of the 38.2% retrace of the post-Fed drop at ~0.7009 would weaken the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.69725 RBA low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
A new low with RSI(14) holding above 30 would mark bullish RSI divergence
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC plus overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after RBA leg · RSI 28 · price 0.69747
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7068; Thu–Fri range broken lower.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs in a steady decline from Thursday's Asia-session peak at 0.7068. Monday's London session broke the 0.7014–0.7043 range that held through Thursday and Friday. The post-ISM bounce in NY stalled at 0.7021 before a close below the 0.7000 round number, and the fully priced RBA hike to 4.85% extended the slide to the RBA low at 0.6973 in Asia. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.6994 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 28 in oversold territory and the lower-highs trendline capping just under 0.7000.
Support: 0.69725, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6994, 0.7000, 0.70256
What it said to watch
Bullock presser at 04:30 GMT: a no-peak, open-ended hawkish message could lift price back toward EMA(20) and the 0.7000 round number
H1 close back above 0.7000 and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence; week open at 0.7026 sits above
Failure to hold the RBA low at 0.6973 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 multi-month trend line
US midterm results and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's 0.7068 peak.
AUD/USD has slid steadily since the weekly open at 0.7026. Monday's London and NY sessions broke last week's 0.7014 floor and the 0.7000 psych handle, despite a softer USD, as the oil slide and Asian risk-off weighed. The RBA decision bar extended the decline to a 0.6973 rba low before a partial bounce to 0.6985. Price is below EMA(20) near 0.7002 and EMA(50) near 0.7014, and RSI(14) is around 28. Each rally this week has stalled under a descending line of lower highs, and the decline from 0.7068 has yet to retrace even 38.2%.
Support: 0.69733, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70256
What it said to watch
Bullock's press conference at 04:30 UTC can reverse the initial RBA move
H1 close back above 0.7000 psych and the lower highs line would undercut the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.6973 rba low exposes the 0.6900 round number
Recovery through the 0.7026 weekly open would neutralise this week's breakdown; prior high at 0.7068 caps above
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC add USD-side risk to the read
Range break below 0.7013, lower highs and lower lows.
The week opened at 0.7026, just under Friday's 0.7032 close. The 0.7034 week high was set early Monday. Through the London-NY transition, price then broke last week's 0.7013 range floor, which had held three times. The NY bounce stalled at 0.7021, and AUD underperformed into the RBA, slipping through 0.7000 psych. In the Asian session the pair printed a 0.6988 week low and is now basing just above the 0.6994 Monday low. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.7002 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 40, not oversold. Pullbacks are being capped along the lower highs line, and the market has retraced none of Monday's drop.
Support: 0.69938, 0.69877
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70135, 0.7034
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 03:30 UTC and Bullock's 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read within the next few bars
H1 close back above 0.7000 psych and the lower highs line would break the lower-high sequence
A reclaim of the 0.7013 range floor would mark the Monday breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.6988 week low extends the lower-low sequence from Monday's drop
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results add USD-side risk to the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows; 0.7014 floor broken Monday, price now below 0.7000.
AUD/USD has carved lower highs since the post-FOMC peak at 0.7068, and Monday's London session broke the 0.7014 old floor that had held four tests since Wednesday. The NY bounce met rejection at 0.7021, just under the weekly open, and the Asian session pushed to a 0.6988 swing low beneath the 0.7000 psych handle. AUD underperformed despite a softer USD as the market de-risked ahead of the RBA. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 37 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.69877, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7014, 0.70256
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 03:30 UTC and presser at 04:30 UTC could materially shift this read: guidance on peak rates is the swing factor
H1 close back above the 0.7014 old floor, near the 38.2% retrace of the post-FOMC drop, would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.6988 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6900 round number
Reclaim of 0.7000 psych and the weekly open at 0.7026 would break the lower-highs line
US midterms plus JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC add USD headline risk during NY hours
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, pinned at 0.7000 into RBA · RSI 41 · price 0.69995
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.70675 prior high.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since last week's post-FOMC prior high at 0.70675. Monday's London session broke the 0.7014 floor and tagged 0.7000, and the NY bounce stalled at the 0.7021 lower high, near the 38.2% retrace, before fading into the close. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 41, holding the 0.7000 psych handle after an Asian dip to a 0.69877 day low, as AUD was pared into the RBA despite a softer USD.
Support: 0.69877, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7021, 0.70256, 0.70675
What it said to watch
RBA decision at 03:30 UTC and Bullock's 04:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.7021 lower high and the 0.70256 weekly open breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.69877 day low extends the downtrend toward the 0.6900 round number
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results add USD headline risk later in the day
Lower highs and lower lows; 0.7013 floor broken and retested from below.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Thursday's 0.7068 prior high. The 0.7013 old floor held from Thursday through Monday's Asia open, then gave way during London on Monday as pre-RBA de-risking and soft risk sentiment outweighed a weaker USD. An early NY bounce retested the broken floor and stalled at EMA(20) near 0.7021, and the 0.7000 psych handle was lost into the close with a new swing low at 0.6994; price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37, low but not oversold.
Support: 0.69938, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70135
What it said to watch
RBA decision and SMP Tue 03:30 UTC, presser 04:30 UTC, could materially shift this read: hawkish guidance vs 'near-peak' language
H1 close back above the 0.7013 old floor negates the range break; a break of the lower-high trendline near 0.7030 ends the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6994 swing low extends the lower-low sequence, with the multi-month 0.6900 trendline the next reference
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC are USD-side risk to the 0.7000 psych handle