AUDUSD carved a rounded recovery off the 0.6882 June low, stringing higher lows into a 0.70497 high, but the advance has stalled with price pinned around 0.70. Upside has repeatedly capped near the 0.7050 100-day SMA and the 0.7075 range cap, while 0.6980 marks the pivot that has held on pullbacks. Hawkish-RBA versus firm-USD data keeps the pair boxed into Friday's NFP.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6950, 0.6882
Resistance: 0.7050, 0.7075
What it said to watch
D1 close below 0.6980 eases the recovery bid and opens the sub-0.69 handle
A close above 0.7075 clears the range cap
US NFP Friday and the Aug 11 RBA decision are the dominant risks to this read
AUDUSD has been rangebound for roughly six weeks, coiling between the 0.6980 pivot and the 0.7050–0.7075 cap after basing at 0.6865 in June. Price is pinned near 0.7000 with EMA(50) flat, reflecting the hawkish-RBA vs firm-USD tug-of-war flagged in the macro read; last week's push to 0.7050 was rejected and the pair drifted back to the middle of the range. A chain of higher lows off June holds, but momentum is neutral with RSI near 50.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6922, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7050, 0.7075
What it said to watch
Daily close above 0.7075 range cap opens the path back toward the May high
Failure to hold 0.6980 pivot eases the bid and exposes the 0.6865 june low
US NFP Friday and RBA Aug 11 are the dominant risks that could break this range