Higher highs and higher lows, pullback in progress.
AUDUSD has built a sequence of higher lows since the 0.7110 trough, with the breakout above 0.7200 pushing price to a cycle high near 0.7277 before fading. Current action looks like a retest of the broken 0.7200-0.7205 swing-low zone, with EMA20 and EMA50 both below price and turning up. RSI cooling to the mid-50s after the impulse leaves room for either continuation or a deeper pullback.
Support: 0.7205, 0.7150, 0.7110
Resistance: 0.7250, 0.7277
What it said to watch
H4 close back below 0.7205 swing low would break the higher-low sequence
Reclaim and close above 0.7250 swing high reopens the path to the 0.7277 cycle high
US CPI later this week is the key macro risk for this read
AUDUSD pushed to 0.7277 last week before stalling, with sellers capping repeated tests of 0.7250 and price now coiling in the 0.7204-0.7250 band. The broader sequence of higher lows from 0.7101 remains intact and EMA50 still slopes up beneath price, but momentum has flattened and the latest bar opened on a bearish gap after weekend Iran headlines. Stronger-than-expected China CPI did little to lift the Aussie, leaving structure constructive but stalling at the rejection zone.
Support: 0.7204, 0.7153, 0.7101
Resistance: 0.7250, 0.72772
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.7250 reopens the path to the 0.7277 swing high
Loss of 0.7204 swing low breaks the near-term higher-low sequence
Geopolitical headlines around Iran / Trump China visit can override structure
AUDUSD remains in a multi-week uptrend with higher-highs through the 0.7277 swing high, but the most recent leg stalled and pulled back sharply to the 0.7204 swing low before stabilising near 0.7233. Price now sits between the local high at 0.7250 and that swing low, with EMA20 capping the bounce while EMA50 still supports from below — a classic post-impulse pause. China CPI later today and ongoing Hormuz headlines are the immediate external risks to the structure.
Support: 0.7204, 0.7153
Resistance: 0.7250, 0.7277
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.7204 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.7250 local high reopens the path toward 0.7277 swing high
China CPI print in the next hours could shift the read on AUD