Lower high at 0.7126 after break of 0.7120; tight coil under EMA20.
Wednesday's NY session produced the week's dominant move: a near-50-pip H1 candle that sliced the 0.7120s after the hawkish Fed hike and unanimous 25bp move, extending to the 0.70744 week low. The recovery since has been corrective — it stalled at the 0.7126 bounce high, a retest of the broken shelf, and price has spent the last twelve hours coiling in a handful of pips either side of the 0.7100 psych pivot with RSI(14) near 47 and EMA(20) around 0.7111 capping. Asia hours have compressed the range to under 5 pips a bar, leaving the session low at 0.71069 as the immediate floor.
Support: 0.7100, 0.71069, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7111, 0.7126, 0.7140
What it said to watch
RBA Governor Bullock speaking at 23:30 GMT is the next AUD-specific trigger and lands inside the current bar
An hourly close back above the 0.7111 ema20 and then the 0.7126 bounce high would break the sequence of lower highs
Loss of the 0.71069 session low and an H1 close below the 0.7100 psych pivot re-exposes the 0.70744 week low
0.7140 week cap remains untested since the Fed drop; a reclaim there would invalidate the lower-high structure
Post-FOMC impulse low, lower highs into a tight range under EMA20/EMA50.
Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike cut roughly 50 pips in a single NY-session hour, dragging AUDUSD from the pre-fomc hi at 0.7138 down to the week low at 0.7074. The recovery since has been corrective rather than impulsive: two pushes into the 0.71259 prior hi were capped, and the last dozen bars have compressed into a few pips of Asian range either side of the 0.7100 psych pivot, with price sitting marginally below both EMA(20) near 0.7111 and EMA(50) near 0.7113. RSI(14) around 46 is flat mid-range, consistent with drift rather than a fresh leg.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70889, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.71384, 0.7140
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.71259 prior hi would end the lower-highs sequence and put the 0.7140 cap back in focus
Loss of the 0.7100 psych pivot reopens the fomc bar low at 0.70889 and the week low at 0.70744
RBA Governor Bullock speaking at 23:30 GMT lands just after this window and can materially reprice this structure
Lower highs all week, sharp break to 0.70744 then sideways repair under EMA20.
The week opened near 0.7160 and ground lower through a series of lower highs before the Fed's 25bp hike and hawkish dots snapped the multi-session 0.7120–0.7135 compression, dumping the pair 50 pips in one bar to a week low of 0.70744. Since that flush price has repaired steadily through the London and NY sessions, tagging a prior high at 0.71259 before fading back to sit right on the EMA20 near 0.71106, with the EMA50 at 0.71142 still overhead. Momentum has flattened: RSI(14) is mid-40s and the last six hours have coiled into a 5-pip band above the 0.71052 session low, so the bounce has lost its impulse without giving back ground.
Support: 0.71052, 0.70885, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71106, 0.71259, 0.71384
What it said to watch
RBA Governor Bullock speaking tonight (23:30 GMT) is the nearest catalyst and could materially shift this read
An hourly close back above 0.71259 prior high would break the lower-highs sequence; 0.71384 pre-fomc caps the wider move
Loss of the 0.71052 session low reopens the 0.70885 fomc low and the 0.70744 week low
Sustained acceptance above the 0.71106 ema20 and 0.71142 EMA50 would neutralise the post-FOMC break
Lower highs since Monday's open; Thursday coiling in 0.71052-0.71259.
Monday's 0.7159 open was unwound all week, with the decline accelerating on Wednesday's Fed hike bar during NY hours and printing the 0.70744 week low. Thursday's London-NY recovery topped out at the 0.71259 day high and was rejected there; price at 0.7110 is now pinned to EMA(20) with the ema50 at 0.71151 and the pre-fomc shelf at 0.7134 overhead. RSI(14) near 46 and an eight-bar coil above the 0.71052 day low point to momentum flattening rather than turning, the 0.7100 psych level directly beneath.
Support: 0.71052, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71151, 0.71259, 0.7134
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 0.71259 day high would break the week's lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.71052 day low reopens the 0.7100 psych level and the 0.70744 week low
RBA Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the immediate event risk to this consolidation read
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling after FOMC drop · RSI 51 · price 0.71097
Lower highs since Monday; rising-lows base above 0.7100.
Monday's 0.7172 area gave way to four sessions of lower highs, and the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike in Wednesday's NY session cut roughly 45 pips in a single bar down to the 0.70744 week low. Thursday has been a grinding recovery off that base — a chain of rising lows up to the 0.71259 day high through NY hours — but the move has stalled with price pinned to the ema20 near 0.7111 and RSI(14) back on the 50 line. The pre-fomc 0.7134 shelf remains untested, while the 0.71052 swing low and the 0.7100 psych level frame the current base.
Support: 0.71052, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71107, 0.71259, 0.7134
What it said to watch
RBA Governor Bullock speaks 23:30 GMT — first RBA read post-Fed and a live risk to this consolidation
Hourly closes back below the 0.7100 psych level would reopen the 0.70744 week low
Acceptance above the pre-fomc 0.7134 shelf would break the lower-highs sequence running from Monday
Repeated rejection at the ema20 keeps the post-FOMC range intact
18:03 UTC
Downtrend from Monday, stabilising · RSI 50 · price 0.71115
Post-FOMC break lower, now basing in a 0.7105-0.7126 consolidation.
The week has been a one-way unwind from 0.7174, with the decisive leg coming on the Fed's hike to 3.75-4.00% and hawkish dots — a single H1 bar sliced through 0.7130 and the low printed at 0.70744. Since then price has ground back above the 0.7100 psych level and is now pinned at the 38.2% fib of the weekly range, with EMA(20) flat under spot and EMA(50) still overhead. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold to the 50 area while the last five bars compress into a 0.7110-0.7113 coil, and the 0.71259 session high caps the bounce.
Support: 0.71052, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.71384, 0.71486
What it said to watch
RBA Gov. Bullock speech at 23:30 GMT is the next event risk for this read
Hourly closes back below 0.71000 psych would put the 0.70744 week low back in play
A close above the 0.71259 session high opens the path to the 0.71384 pre-fomc high
Loss of the 0.71052 swing low breaks the rising higher-lows sequence off Thursday's base
17:04 UTC
Downtrend this week, basing after the FOMC drop · RSI 50 · price 0.71119
Lower highs into 0.7075, now higher lows in a tight 0.7105-0.7126 range.
The dominant move of the week was the single-bar collapse from 0.71384 to 0.70744 on the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike during the NY session, which erased the multi-day 0.7127-0.7134 shelf. Since then price has carved a rounded bottom through the Asia and London sessions, reclaiming the 0.7100 psych level and grinding back to a 0.71259 day high before stalling; RSI(14) has recovered from the mid-20s to the 50 line. Price sits marginally above EMA20 near 0.7107 but still under EMA50, leaving the recovery inside the post-FOMC damage rather than beyond it.
Support: 0.7107, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.71384
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 0.7100 psych re-opens the 0.70744 week low
Acceptance above the 0.71259 day high would extend the base toward the 0.71384 pre-fomc shelf
Loss of the higher-lows line off 0.70744 ends the basing sequence
RBA Governor Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the next event able to reprice this range
Lower highs into a post-FOMC flush, now basing above 0.7100.
The week has been a stair-step of lower highs from 0.71765, with the 0.7120–0.7135 compression zone breaking violently during the Wednesday NY session as the Fed's unanimous hike and hawkish dots pushed the pair through 0.7100 to a 0.70744 week low in two bars. Since then price has ground back up through the NY and Asia sessions on USD profit-taking, reclaiming the psych 0.7100 handle and now sitting marginally above EMA(20) at 0.7111 but still capped by EMA(50). RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s from oversold, consistent with a corrective bounce retesting the underside of the broken range rather than a fresh impulse.
Support: 0.7111, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.7126, 0.71384, 0.71765
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 0.7100 would negate the bounce and re-expose the 0.70744 week low
Acceptance above the 0.7126 session high, then the 0.71384 pre-fomc high, is needed to break the sequence of lower highs
RBA Gov. Bullock speech at 23:30 GMT is the immediate event risk for this read
Failure to hold EMA20 at 0.7111 on pullbacks would flatten the rising-lows line off 0.70744
Lower highs since Monday, higher lows off the 0.7075 week low.
The week's decline from Friday's 0.7178 area accelerated in the FOMC bar, a single 50-pip candle that broke 0.7100 and printed a one-month low at 0.7075 as the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike landed. Since then price has ground back up through the 0.7100 round number in a sequence of higher lows, tagging a 0.7126 day high in the NY session before stalling; the 0.7140 range top and the 0.7159 weekly open are both still untested. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 0.7106 but under EMA(50), with RSI(14) back at the 49 midline from deeply oversold — consistent with correction rather than trend reversal.
Support: 0.7106, 0.7100, 0.7075
Resistance: 0.7126, 0.7140, 0.7159
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 0.7100 puts the 0.7075 week low in play again
Acceptance above the 0.7140 range top would break the lower-highs sequence from Monday
RBA Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the next scheduled catalyst and can reset this consolidation
Loss of EMA20 near 0.7106 would end the higher-lows sequence off the low
Lower highs all week, base carved at 0.7074 with higher lows since.
The week has been a sequence of lower highs from 0.7178, and the hawkish FOMC hike on Wednesday's NY session broke the 0.7130 shelf in a single bar, spiking to a week low of 0.70744. Since the Asia session price has ground back up in higher lows and now sits above EMA(20) near 0.7105 but still under the flatter 50-period average, with the day high at 0.71259 capping the bounce. RSI(14) has recovered to the low 60s from oversold, consistent with a corrective recovery inside the broader downtrend rather than a structural turn.
Support: 0.7105, 0.70875, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.7134, 0.7140
What it said to watch
An hourly close above 0.7134 (pre-fomc shelf) would break the week's lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.7105 ema20 area on a close puts the 0.70875 fomc base back in play, with 0.70744 week low beneath
RBA Governor Bullock speaking 23:30 GMT is the next event risk and could reprice this bounce either way
0.714 band top remains the upper edge of this week's post-break consolidation — area to watch for rejection or break
Post-FOMC range break, now basing in higher lows below EMA(50).
The week has been a one-way grind lower from the 0.7175 area, and the FOMC hour in Wednesday's NY session broke the multi-day 0.7120-0.7135 balance with a single 50-pip bar into a 0.70744 week low. Since then price has carved a series of higher lows off 0.70825 toward the 0.71259 bounce high, with the last two sessions coiling between the 0.71052 swing low and that cap — the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC drop sits right at spot. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold to a neutral 51.5 and price is holding above EMA(20) while EMA(50) near 0.7115 still caps closes, keeping the recovery corrective in character.
Support: 0.71052, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.7134
What it said to watch
RBA Governor Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the next scheduled risk event for this pair and can reprice the bounce either way
An hourly close above the 0.71259 bounce high would extend the recovery toward the 0.7134 pre-fomc shelf
Loss of the 0.71052 swing low and the 0.7100 round number re-opens the 0.70744 week low
Sustained closes back above EMA(50) near 0.7115 would weaken the corrective-bounce read
Lower highs since Monday, higher lows off the post-FOMC low.
The week opened near 0.7180 and bled lower into a tight 0.7120–0.7134 shelf, which broke hard in the NY session on Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike to 3.75–4.00% — one bar took price from 0.71340 to a 0.70744 week low. Since then the recovery through Asia and London has been orderly, stacking higher lows off 0.71062 and reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.71110 with RSI(14) back to ~59 from deeply oversold. Price at 0.71206 now sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week's 0.71826–0.70744 impulse, with 0.71259 the session high and the broken pre-FOMC floor at 0.71340 the first real test; 0.71750 has capped rallies all week.
Support: 0.7111, 0.71062, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.7134, 0.7175
What it said to watch
RBA Governor Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the nearest AUD catalyst and could materially shift this read
An hourly close above 0.71340 turns the range break into a completed retest of the pre-fomc shelf
Loss of the 0.71062 higher low and EMA(20) at 0.71110 re-opens the 0.70744 week low
DXY acceptance above the 100.00 psychological level keeps pressure on the bounce
Lower highs since Monday; higher lows since Wednesday's 0.70744 low.
The dominant move of the week came in a single NY-session hour on Wednesday, when the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% dropped AUDUSD from 0.71384 to 0.70744 and forced a bearish ema cross, with EMA20 (0.71110) still tracking below EMA50. Since then price has ground back higher through Asia and London on a sequence of higher lows, reclaiming EMA20 and retracing roughly three-quarters of the FOMC impulse into the 0.71259 session high. RSI(14) has recovered from post-print lows to 58 without pushing into overbought, and the series of lower highs from Monday's 0.71826 remains intact.
Support: 0.7111, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71259, 0.71384, 0.7175
What it said to watch
RBA Governor Bullock speaks 23:30 GMT — the nearest high-impact AUD catalyst and capable of resetting this read
Hourly close above the 0.71259 session high and then 0.71384 pre-fomc hi would break the week's lower-high sequence
Loss of EMA20 and an hourly close below the 0.71000 psych pivot would re-expose the 0.70744 week low
0.71750 has capped rallies all week; unbroken, it keeps the corrective label on this bounce
Lower highs since Monday, post-FOMC base holding above 0.7074.
The week opened near 0.7187 and ground lower in a clean sequence of lower highs, with the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% in the NY session on Wednesday breaking the 0.7120-0.7136 shelf in a single 50-pip bar down to a 0.70744 week low. Asia and early London have since retraced back to 0.71206, where the advance stalled, leaving price pinned either side of the ema20 around 0.7105 with RSI(14) back at the 50 midline. The pre-fomc hi at 0.71340 remains untested, and 0.7175 has capped every rally attempt since Monday.
Support: 0.7105, 0.70885, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71206, 0.7134, 0.7175
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7100 handle would re-open the 0.70744 week low and the 0.7050 area
A close above 0.71340 pre-fomc hi would break the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the fomc close zone at 0.70885 confirms continuation of the downtrend
US claims / Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC and RBA's Bullock at 23:30 GMT are the next catalysts that could reshape this range
Sequence of lower highs into the FOMC break, higher lows since the 0.70744 week low.
Lower highs have defined the week since Monday's 0.71663 print, and the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% broke the 0.7120-0.7135 consolidation in one bar, extending to a 0.70744 week low before stabilising. Asia and early London have ground the pair back above the ema20 and the 0.7100 psych pivot, with the advance stalling at the 0.71206 session high and RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-40s. The pre-fomc shelf at 0.71340 is the structure capping this rebound; below, 0.7100 is the pivot the market keeps returning to.
Support: 0.7104, 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71206, 0.7134, 0.71486
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7100 psych pivot re-opens the 0.7050 area and confirms the week low is in play
Acceptance back above 0.71340 pre-fomc would invalidate the range break read
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next bar and can decide the 0.7100 test
RBA Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the next AUD-specific catalyst for this structure
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.71040 breaks the higher-low sequence built off 0.70744
Lower highs all week; post-FOMC range 0.7074–0.7121.
Price has ground lower all week from Monday's 0.7185 area, and the hawkish Fed hike in yesterday's NY session broke the 0.7128–0.7134 shelf in a single bar, printing the week low at 0.70744. The Asia and London recovery reclaimed the 0.7100 psych handle and topped out at the 0.71206 day high — roughly the 61.8% retracement of the FOMC leg — but the last three bars have faded back under the ema20 at 0.7108. RSI(14) has cycled back from the low-50s to the mid-40s without confirming the bounce.
Support: 0.7100, 0.7086, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71084, 0.71206, 0.71384
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 0.7100 psych level would put the post-fomc lo at 0.70860 and then the 0.70744 week low back in focus
A close above the 0.71206 day high would break the sequence of lower highs that has held since Monday
US jobless claims and Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC land inside the next bar and can reprice the USD leg
RBA's Bullock at 23:30 GMT is the nearest AUD-specific catalyst and could reshape this range read
Lower highs all week, sharp break to 0.7074 then corrective bounce capped under 0.7121.
AUDUSD has traded a clean lower-highs sequence since Monday's session open, and the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% took out the 0.7120s floor in one bar, spiking to 0.70744 during the NY session. The Asia and early-London rebound stalled at the 0.71206 rebound high — roughly the 50-61.8% retracement of that impulse — and price has slipped back under the EMA20 at 0.71086 with RSI(14) fading to the mid-40s. The 0.7100 psych handle is the pivot the whole rebound now rests on.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70744
Resistance: 0.71086, 0.71206, 0.7134
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.7100 psych handle re-opens the 0.70744 fomc low as the next reference
Reclaim of the 0.71206 rebound high, then the 0.71340 pre-fomc lvl, would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure at the ema20 keeps the rebound corrective rather than structural
US claims/Philly Fed at 12:30 UTC and RBA Bullock at 23:30 GMT are the near-term catalysts for this read