Lower highs from 0.7237; range floor broken, fresh swing low.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs along a descending trendline since the 0.7237 early-month peak, and EMA20 sits below EMA50. The week's 0.7100–0.7140 range gave way after soft Aussie PMIs met a strong US PMI beat. Price cut through the 0.7074 prior low to a fresh 0.7025 swing low, with ATR(14) expanding and RSI now oversold.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70744, 0.7100, 0.71398
What it said to watch
AU jobs data Thu 01:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read; a weak print aligns with the break, a strong one tests the drop
H4 close back above the 0.7074 prior low would signal the break is losing traction
Failure to hold the 0.7025 swing low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.7100 range floor, near the 61.8% retrace, and then the 0.7140 range top would break the lower-high trendline structure
US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu, with DXY holding above 101.00, keep USD-side risk active
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 peak; range floor broken.
Lower-high sequence has held since the 0.7237 early-month peak, and each bounce has stalled below a descending lower-high line. This week's 0.7095–0.7140 range gave way after the US PMI beat and the push in US10Y above 5.05%. The last three bars then sliced through the 0.7074 prior low to a fresh swing low at 0.7032, with EMA20 below EMA50, ATR(14) expanding to about 20 pips and RSI deeply oversold.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7095, 0.7140
What it said to watch
AU labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC and the Trump-Xi summit could materially shift this read
H4 close back above the 0.7074 prior low would mark the break as a possible false break
Reclaim of the 0.7095 range floor and the 38.2% fib near 0.7110 would stall the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7032 swing low puts the 0.7000 psych level in play
Break above the lower-high line near the 0.7140 range high would invalidate the downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237 peak; range floor broken.
AUDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 0.7237 peak, stepping down through 0.7187 and 0.7140, and the latest leg has broken the 0.7092–0.7140 range floor. The move came after today's Australian flash PMI miss and against a firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing. Price is now at a fresh window low near 0.7062, below the 0.7074 prior low, with EMA20 under EMA50, ATR(14) expanding to about 18 pips and RSI(14) in oversold territory.
Support: 0.7062, 0.7050, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7092, 0.7140
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 0.7074 prior low would mark the break as a potential false break
A reclaim of the 0.7092 range floor puts the 0.7140 range top and the lower-highs trendline back in focus
Sustained trade below the window low opens the half figure at 0.7050, with the 0.7000 round number beyond
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC (f/c +20K, 4.5%) could materially shift this read
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC and Fed's Barr at 14:05 UTC are the near-term USD test
Lower highs and lower lows; multi-day range broken to the downside.
Since the 0.72374 pivot three weeks ago the H4 sequence has been an unbroken run of lower highs and lower lows, with price now trading beneath both the EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.7095–0.7140 compression band that held for most of last week gave way after the Australian flash PMI misses, leaving 0.7100 old support as overhead supply while a hawkish-Fed-driven USD at seven-week highs keeps the pressure on. ATR(14) near 19 pips is expanding off the mid-range lull, consistent with trend extension rather than compression, and RSI near 27 is oversold without any divergence yet.
Support: 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7100, 0.7140
What it said to watch
A sustained H4 close back above 0.7100 old support would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 0.70744 swing low leaves the 0.7050 round number as the next reference
Reclaiming the 0.7140 range cap would break the lower-highs sequence
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC and RBA on 29 Sep could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; 0.7100 shelf broken, probing the swing low.
Sequence of lower highs from 0.72374 into the 0.71398 range high remains intact, and this week's slide has taken out the 0.7100 shelf that had contained the prior multi-day consolidation — the flash PMI miss (composite 50.8 vs 52.7 prior) did the damage. Price trades below both EMA20 near 0.71140 and EMA50, with the last bar closing at 0.70842, just above the 0.70744 swing low from the prior flush. ATR(14) near 17 pips is expanding off the compressed mid-window regime, consistent with a trending rather than ranging read.
Support: 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7100, 0.7114, 0.71398
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.70744 confirms a fresh lower low and puts the 0.7050 round number in range
An H4 close back above the 0.7100 shelf would negate the range break and restore the 0.7100–0.71398 consolidation
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC (Employment Change f/c +20K, unemployment f/c 4.5%) is the main structural risk to this read, with the RBA decision 29 Sep behind it
Repeated rejection at the ema20 would keep the lower-high sequence alive
Lower highs since 0.7237, base grinding on the 0.7098 range floor.
Sequence of lower highs remains intact from the 0.7237 swing high — 0.7187, then 0.7140, with the last three attempts at 0.7140 capped and price now closing back on the 0.7098 range floor beneath both EMA20 (~0.7118) and EMA50 (~0.7121). Soft Australian flash PMIs (composite 50.8 vs 52.7 prior) stalled the topside even with a Sep 29 RBA hike near fully priced, while the Dollar sitting at seven-week highs keeps the rebound from 0.7074 shallow. ATR(14) near 17 pips is compressed against the 40-pip 0.7098–0.7140 band, a typical pre-expansion setting.
Support: 0.7098, 0.7074, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7118, 0.7140, 0.7187
What it said to watch
Australian labour force report Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC is the main risk to this compression read
H4 close below 0.7098 range floor confirms continuation toward the 0.7074 swing low and the 0.7050 round number
Reclaiming 0.7118 ema20 and a close above 0.7140 would break the lower-highs sequence
Repeated wicks into 0.7092–0.7098 without a close below show demand still stepping in at the floor
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening into a range · RSI 41 · price 0.71104
Lower highs since 0.72374; base carved at 0.70744, price coiling under EMA50.
The sequence of lower highs from 0.72374 through 0.71853 and 0.71398 remains intact, but the impulse that ended at the 0.70744 swing low has given way to two weeks of compression between the range floor near 0.70960 and the 0.71400 range cap. Price is trading beneath both EMA20 and the EMA50 around 0.71240, which has capped the last four attempts higher — consistent with the RBA-hike pricing being largely owned on the AUD side while a hawkish Fed keeps the upside contained. ATR(14) near 16 pips is a contracted regime for this pair, the kind of coil that typically resolves with an expansion bar rather than a drift.
Support: 0.7096, 0.70744, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7124, 0.7140, 0.7185
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.71400 range cap would break the lower-high sequence and invalidate the range read
Loss of the 0.70960 range floor puts the 0.70744 swing low, then the 0.70500 psych level, back in view
Reclaiming the EMA50 at 0.71240 on a closing basis would neutralise the downside skew inside the range
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC and the Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC are both capable of forcing this compression to resolve