Mon–Tue range broken lower Wednesday; lower highs and lower lows since.
AUDUSD chopped in a 0.7092–0.7140 band through Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's soft Aussie PMIs broke the range floor into London. The sharp US flash PMI beat then extended the drop in NY hours to a 0.7025 week low, about 85 pips below the 0.7109 weekly open. Late NY bars have compressed around 0.7040 with RSI(14) near 29. Price is trading well under an EMA(20) near 0.7060, a level that lines up with the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday's selloff.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.70919, 0.71087
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.7060 ema20 / 38.2% of the Wednesday selloff would ease the lower-high sequence
Recovery above the 0.7092 range floor would turn Wednesday's break into a false break
Failure at the 0.7025 week low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
AU jobs data Thu 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US claims and Williams follow later Thursday
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended after range break · RSI 30 · price 0.70424
Lower highs since Monday's 0.7140 peak; Tuesday range floor broken.
The week opened at 0.7109 and chopped in a 0.7092–0.7140 range through Tuesday, with the Tuesday low holding three tests before Wednesday's slide broke it. Soft Aussie PMIs started the decline in the Asia session, and the US flash PMI beat accelerated it in the NY session, driving price to a 0.7025 week low under a lower-highs trendline from Monday's peak. Price sits well below EMA(20) near 0.7068, which lines up with the 38.2% of the week high fib. RSI(14) is near 30 after a late-NY bounce.
Support: 0.70253, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7068, 0.7092, 0.71087
What it said to watch
AU labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a break of the 0.7025 week low
H1 close back above the ema20 near 0.7068 (38.2% week high fib) would stall the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.7025 week low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.7092 tuesday low and 0.7109 weekly open would put price back inside the prior range
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu 12:30–13:00 UTC; a soft claims print could trigger a USD pullback
17:04 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.70285
Lower highs since Monday's 0.7140 peak; Mon–Tue range broken lower Wednesday.
Monday's 0.7140 high capped the week, and each rebound since has printed lower highs. The Mon–Tue 0.7092–0.7140 range gave way as soft AU flash PMIs weighed in Asia and the Tuesday low broke early in the London session. Blowout US flash PMIs and a 5.05% US10Y then drove a 24-pip NY-session leg to the 0.7028 week low, with the 0.7049 bounce high now capping and price about 45 pips under EMA20 near 0.7072 with RSI(14) oversold at 21.
Support: 0.70275, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70494, 0.7072, 0.70919
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7049 bounce high would be the first break in the lower-highs sequence since the US PMI drop
Failure to hold the 0.7028 week low exposes the 0.7000 round number
EMA20 near 0.7072 aligns with the 38.2% fib of the week's decline (0.7070); a reclaim there shifts the read to a broader retracement
A return above the 0.7092 Tuesday low would put price back inside the Mon–Tue range and void the range break
AU labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.5%) plus Trump-Xi summit headlines could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 12:30 UTC
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive and stretched · RSI 21 · price 0.70342
Lower highs since Monday, weekly range broken lower.
The week opened on a gap down to 0.7109 from Friday's 0.7124 close. Monday's NY-session high at 0.7140 capped price, and the pair has printed lower highs along the trendline since. The 0.7092–0.7140 range gave way in the London session today when price cut through the tue low. The drop then accelerated in NY hours after the US PMI beat, a 30-pip hourly bar that drove price to a 0.7032 week low, with RSI(14) near 21 and price well below both EMAs. Nearest overhead is the pre-pmi low around 0.7060, then the 38.2% fib of the week's drop at 0.7073.
Support: 0.7032, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.7073, 0.7092
What it said to watch
Aus jobs data Thu 01:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.5%) could materially shift this read in the Asia session
Failure to hold the 0.7032 week low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Any rebound that stalls at the pre-pmi low near 0.7060 or the 38.2% fib at 0.7073 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
H1 close back above the 0.7092 tue low and the lower-highs trendline would negate the range break
Oversold RSI(14) near 21 leaves room for a corrective bounce without changing structure
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after impulse · RSI 23 · price 0.70469
Range break lower, lower highs and lower lows through Wednesday.
The 0.7105–0.7140 range that held since Sunday's weekly open at 0.7109 gave way on Wednesday. Soft Aus PMIs preceded a London-open break of Tuesday's 0.7092 low, then the US flash PMI beat accelerated the drop to a 0.7033 session low during NY hours. Price sits roughly 45 pips under EMA(20), which is now near 0.7080, with each hourly bounce capped by the Wednesday lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) is near 23, oversold after the week's largest impulse.
Support: 0.70333, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7080, 0.70919, 0.71087
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.7080 ema20 and the Wednesday lower-highs trendline would ease the downtrend read; the 38.2% fib of the week high-low move sits just below at 0.7074
Failure to hold the 0.7033 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.7000 psych
Recovery back above the 0.7092 tuesday low and 0.7109 weekly open would put price back inside the week's range
Aus jobs data Thu 01:30 UTC (f/c 20K, 4.5%) could materially shift this read in the Asia session
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC plus Fed speakers are USD-side risk into NY hours
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 21 · price 0.70456
Mon–Tue range broken lower, lower highs since Monday.
From the weekly open at 0.7109, price spent Monday and Tuesday in a 0.7092–0.7140 range, printing lower highs off Monday's 0.7140 top. The AUD flash PMI miss started a steady slide through Asia and London today that cut through the 0.7092 tuesday low, and USD strength on hawkish Fedspeak extended it into the US flash PMI release, flushing to a 0.70385 session low. Price now sits about 40 pips below a falling ema20 near 0.7084, with RSI(14) near 21 after more than 100 pips of downside this week.
Support: 0.70385, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.7060, 0.7084, 0.70919
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.7060 london low would show the NY flush stalling
Failure to hold the 0.70385 session low exposes the 0.7000 psych level
Reclaiming the ema20 and 0.7092 tuesday low would put price back inside the prior range
A higher RSI low on any retest of 0.7040 would register as bullish divergence in oversold territory
Australian jobs data Thu 01:30 UTC (f/c +20K, 4.5%) could materially shift this read
Price holding below the 50% of the week decline fib (0.7089) keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
13:27 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after today's leg lower · RSI 24 · price 0.70637
Lower highs since Monday, Tuesday low broken.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.7140 test. The Tuesday low at 0.7092–0.7098 held through three sessions before giving way at today's London open, after Australia's flash PMI misses and firm USD pricing on hawkish Fedspeak. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 24, and the 0.7060 session low is the week low. The broken Tuesday low is now the first resistance, with psych 0.7100 aligned with the 50% retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 0.70596, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.70919, 0.7100, 0.71204
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read; a services miss would test the extended USD rally
Australian labour data Thu 01:30 UTC: a weak print below forecast puts the round number at 0.7050 in view beneath the session low
An H1 close back above the Tuesday low at 0.7092 would turn today's break into a false break
Lower-high trendline and psych 0.7100 capping any rebound keeps the downtrend intact; a close above the 0.7120 lower high invalidates the sequence
Successive lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's NY session.
After three sessions pinned in a 0.7095–0.7140 band around Monday's weekly open near 0.7109, the London session today forced a clean break of the 0.7100 psych level as September flash PMIs all deteriorated (manufacturing 49.3, services 51.4, composite 50.8), with a firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing compounding the move. Price has closed nine of the last ten bars below EMA20 near 0.71040, and the drop to 0.70635 leaves RSI(14) near 22 — oversold, but no divergence yet. The 0.70800 shelf that capped the last bounce is now the nearest resistance above.
Support: 0.70635, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7080, 0.7100, 0.7104
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.70635 session low opens the 0.70500 round number
An hourly close back above the 0.70800 broken shelf would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 0.71000 psych level and EMA20 at 0.71040 would invalidate the downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT today could materially shift the USD leg within the next bar
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC is the week's main event risk for this pair
Successive lower highs and lower lows after the 0.7095-0.7140 band broke.
Price spent Monday and Tuesday pinned in a 0.7095-0.7140 band before the soft September flash PMIs forced a clean range break, and the last six hours of the London session have carved out lower highs into a fresh week low at 0.70751. Price is trading roughly 17 pips under EMA20 near 0.70945 and well below EMA50, with every bounce attempt since 0.71162 capped progressively lower. RSI(14) at ~26 is the most stretched reading of the week, so the move is extended rather than freshly broken.
Support: 0.70751, 0.7070, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.70945, 0.7100, 0.7116
What it said to watch
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC is the next material catalyst for this structure
An H1 close back above the 0.7100 psych level would invalidate the range break read
Failure to hold 0.70751 week low confirms continuation and puts the 0.70700 psych and 0.70500 round number in play
Reclaiming EMA20 near 0.70945 would be the first sign the lower-highs sequence is stalling
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, third session of selling · RSI 31 · price 0.70881
Lower highs and lower lows after this week's range broke.
Price spent most of the week pinned in a 0.7105–0.7135 consolidation before the September flash PMI misses knocked spot through the 0.7100 psych shelf in the NY session, with the low at 0.70796 the weakest print of the window. Every attempt back toward 0.71161, the prior-day high, has been capped since Monday, and the EMA(20) near 0.7102 is now overhead rather than supporting pullbacks. RSI(14) at ~31 confirms the impulse but has not yet made a fresh extreme alongside the latest low.
Support: 0.70796, 0.7050
Resistance: 0.7100, 0.71161, 0.71398
What it said to watch
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC — the dominant near-term risk for this read
Sustained reclaim of 0.71000 psych level would negate the range break
Failure to hold 0.70796 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.7050 round number
An hourly close back above 0.71161 prior-day high invalidates the lower-highs line
Lower highs since Monday, flat base near 0.7092-0.7097.
AUDUSD has been pinned in a 0.7092-0.7140 band all week, but the sequence of lower highs — 0.71398 Monday NY, 0.71255 yesterday's prior day high, 0.71165 as today's day high — has price back at the 0.7100 psych area with the close now under the H1 ema20 at 0.71095. Yesterday's London hours produced the sharpest leg, a drop to 0.70919 after the soft September flash PMI trio (Composite 50.8 vs 52.7 prior) dented the resilient-demand leg of the RBA hike case, with a firmer USD on hawkish Fed rhetoric keeping rebounds capped. RSI(14) is cycling in the low 40s and ATR has compressed to roughly 8 pips per bar, consistent with the range read rather than an impulse.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70968, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.71095, 0.71165, 0.71255
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 0.71095 ema20 and then 0.71165 day high would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of 0.70968 day low and 0.70919 week low confirms a lower low out of the range base
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC (Employment Change f/c +20K, U-rate 4.5%) is the main scheduled risk to this structure
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC today could extend or unwind the USD leg driving the drift off 0.7140
0.7092-0.7140 range compressing, price under weekly open.
Since Monday's session open the week high at 0.71398 in the NY session has not been retested, and each bounce has capped lower — the 0.71160 day high and 0.71255 prior day high mark that sequence. Yesterday's soft Australian flash PMIs plus a firm dollar pushed a third session of slippage, with the Asia session low at 0.70977 probing the 0.71000 psych shelf and the last close at 0.71014 sitting below both EMA20 (~0.71090) and EMA50. RSI(14) has been cycling 40-55 without reaching an extreme, consistent with range compression rather than impulse.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70977, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.7109, 0.7116, 0.71255
What it said to watch
Australian labour force report Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC is the dominant event risk for this range read
Hourly close back above the 0.71090 ema20 and then 0.71160 day high would negate the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.70919 prior day low confirms a lower low and voids the 0.71000 psych shelf as the range base
Repeated closes between 0.71000 and 0.71090 keep the range/consolidation read intact
Compressing range with lower highs, pressing the 0.7100 shelf.
Since Monday's session open the pair has built a chain of lower highs from the 0.71398 week high, with the topside near 0.7140 capping as the September flash PMI misses (manufacturing 49.3, services 51.4) and a USD at seven-week highs on hawkish Fed repricing squeezed the range. Price has slipped under the EMA(20) at 0.71095 during the Asia session and now sits on the 0.7100 shelf, with RSI(14) at 39 after cycling down from 60s on Monday's NY hours. Demand has stepped in twice around 0.70919/0.70966 through the last two NY sessions, keeping the base intact for now.
Support: 0.70977, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.71095, 0.71161, 0.71398
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.70977 session low would extend the lower-high sequence toward the 0.70919 week low
Reclaim of the 0.71095 ema20 and a close above 0.71161 prior-day high would neutralise the lower-highs read
Australian labour force report Thu 24 Sep 01:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst and can reset this range
Since the week high at 0.71398 was set in Monday's NY session, AUDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs — 0.71255, 0.71204, 0.71171 — and now trades back under EMA20 near 0.71105 after the soft September flash PMIs dragged the pair down for a third straight session. The 0.7100 psych shelf has been defended repeatedly, with 0.70919 the week low from yesterday's NY hours. RSI(14) around 41 has failed to reclaim 50 on the last three bounces, and hourly ranges have compressed to roughly 8 pips.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.71105, 0.71204, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.70919 confirms a lower low and removes the psych shelf defence
Reclaim of 0.71204 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT today and the Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
No net trend, mildly heavy inside range · RSI 48 · price 0.71073
Range-bound between 0.7092 and 0.7140 with lower highs since Tuesday's NY session.
Price has gone nowhere since the week opened near 0.7109: the 0.71398 week high set in Tuesday's NY session capped the move, and the Asia-hours slide into 0.70919 was recovered inside two bars, leaving a false break below the 0.7100 round number rather than a directional shift. The last closed bar at 0.71073 sits just under the EMA(20) at 0.71112, which has been acting as resistance on each bounce attempt through the current session, while RSI(14) hovers near 48 with no divergence. Soft Australian flash PMIs at 23:00 UTC (manufacturing 49.3, services 51.4) did little to the pair, with ~94% RBA hike pricing offset by a firm USD after hawkish Fedspeak.
Support: 0.7100, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.71112, 0.71255, 0.71398
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the ema20 at 0.71112, then the 0.71255 day high, would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 0.7100 round number on a closing basis puts the 0.70919 week low back in view
A close above the 0.71398 week high would invalidate the range read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 GMT today, then the Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC, are the events most likely to break this range
Monday's range still governing: lower highs off 0.71398 against higher lows off 0.70919.
AUDUSD has spent the week inside Monday's range: the 0.71398 week high has not been retested since the Monday NY session, and Tuesday's two-stage slide stalled at the 0.70919 week low before demand pulled price back to the middle. Price now sits right on EMA(20) but under EMA(50) with RSI(14) pinned near 50 — the softer Australian flash PMIs overnight (composite 50.8, manufacturing 49.3) drew no follow-through, while hawkish Fed pricing continues to cap rallies. The 0.71073 day low and the 0.71000 round number are the shelves beneath, with the 0.71255 prior day hi the nearest cap.
Support: 0.71073, 0.7100, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.71255, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.71255 prior day hi would break the lower-highs sequence running from the week high
Failure to hold the 0.71000 round number re-exposes the 0.70919 week low
Sustained trade below the 0.71073 day low would end the higher-lows sequence off Tuesday's base
US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC today and the Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC could reset this range read
Lower highs under 0.7140, base holding the 0.7100 area.
Monday's NY session set the week high at 0.71398, just shy of the 0.7140 cap, and H1 has printed a sequence of lower highs since, with price now pinned on the weekly open at 0.71087, RSI(14) near 46 and the last close slipping back under EMA20 at 0.71115. Tuesday's London open swept the week low at 0.70919 and recovered the entire move within two bars, and the NY session retest at 0.70966 also held, leaving the 0.7100 psych area as the floor of a roughly 45-pip range. Softer Australian flash PMIs overnight (composite 50.8) drew little follow-through, while the hawkish-Fed dollar bid has capped every push toward the tue high at 0.71255.
Support: 0.71087, 0.7100, 0.70919
Resistance: 0.71115, 0.71255, 0.71398
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.71255 tue high would break the week's lower-high sequence
Sustained trade below the 0.71000 psych level re-opens the 0.70919 week low
Australian labour force report Thu 01:30 UTC is the largest scheduled risk to this range read
US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC plus Fed's Barr — the NY session driver for the USD leg