21:05 UTC
Summer uptrend unwinding, short-term lower highs and lower lows · RSI 36 · price 0.70341
Pullback from 0.7237 Sep high testing June trendline and 61.8% zone.
The late-June to early-September advance from 0.6865 to 0.7237 has unwound over the past two weeks. Lower highs were capped near 0.7140, and the midweek drop took price below EMA(50) to a 0.7025 swing low. That drop came as soft AU flash PMIs met a hawkish-Fed repricing, with US 10y yields through 5%. Price now sits on the rising June trendline, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the summer leg. The 0.7000 psych level is just beneath, and RSI near 36 is not yet at a stretched reading.
Support: 0.7025, 0.7000, 0.6922
Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7103, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- Daily close below 0.7000 psych would break the June trendline and the 61.8% level, exposing the July low at 0.6922
- Recovery above the 0.7074 prior low and EMA(50) near 0.7103 would ease the pullback read; a close above the 0.7140 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
- RBA decision Tue Sep 29 04:30 UTC (+25bp to 4.60% consensus) and AU CPI Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read
- Friday US durables, UoM inflation expectations and Fed speakers feed the USD yield driver behind the drop to the 0.7025 swing low