19:04 UTC
Uptrend since the Apr 2025 low, now ranging · RSI 53 · price 0.70656
0.6830–0.7280 range since Feb 2026, above the 2025 base.
Range-bound between the 0.6833–0.6865 range low and the 0.7277 year high since Q1 2026, after the January breakout out of the 2025 0.64–0.67 base. The September high at 0.7237 printed a lower high, and a three-week slide has pushed price back under EMA(20). Fed-hike repricing and 5%+ US yields are driving the slide. Price still holds well above the rising EMA(50) near 0.6940, so the macro structure stays intact, and RSI around 53 is mid-range noise.
Support: 0.7000, 0.6940, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7237, 0.7277
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the 0.7000 psych level exposes the ema50 near 0.6940 and the range low at 0.6865
- A sustained break under the range low would end the post-breakout range and put the 0.6756 38.2% retracement of the Apr 2025–May 2026 rally in view
- A weekly close above the sept high at 0.7237 reopens a test of the year high at 0.7277, the range cap
- RBA decision Tue 29 Sep (4.60% hike expected) and its guidance could materially shift this read
- US PCE and ADP on Wed 30 Sep, then NFP, via the US yield channel