21:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalling above 0.7000 · RSI 36 · price 0.70249
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; tight base at lows.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows from the 0.7237 top. Each rally has capped under the lower-highs trendline, and the latest leg from the 0.7140 lower high ran to a 0.7004 swing low as surging US yields and hawkish Fed repricing drove the USD higher. Price is now basing in a tight 40-pip band just above the 0.7000 psych level, capped by the 0.7042 bounce high near EMA(20), with both EMAs overhead. ATR(14) has compressed to about 18 pips, pointing to a range-bound pause ahead of the RBA.
Support: 0.70036, 0.7000
Resistance: 0.70423, 0.70744, 0.71398
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC (25bp hike priced): hawkish guidance vs one-and-done framing could decide the break from this base
- H4 close below the 0.7004 swing low and 0.7000 psych extends the lower-low sequence
- H4 close above the 0.7042 bounce high and EMA(20) opens a retrace toward the 0.7074 prior low, near the 50% fib of the last leg
- Only a move through the 0.7140 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
- US ADP, GDP and PCE on Wed can reassert USD and yield control over this read