21:05 UTC
Downtrend from September high, momentum soft but not oversold · RSI 35 · price 0.70088
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.7237 top; sitting on the 61.8% fib near 0.7000.
Three straight weekly losses have unwound the July–September advance from the 0.7237 sep high. Each bounce has stalled lower, at 0.7187 and then the 0.7140 lower high, and last week's USD-driven drop broke the rising trendline off the June base. Price now sits on the 0.7004 swing low, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the June–September leg and the 0.7000 handle. Daily closes are below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI near 35 still leaves room before a true oversold reading.
Support: 0.7004, 0.6983, 0.6922
Resistance: 0.7074, 0.7140, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue 04:30 UTC and Bullock's press conference at 05:30 UTC. Guidance on further hikes is the likely trigger for a move away from 0.7000
- A daily close below the 0.7004 swing low and the aug low at 0.6983 would extend the lower-low sequence toward the july low at 0.6922
- Recovery above the 0.7074 breakdown area and the falling trendline would ease the downtrend read. The 0.7140 lower high is the next structural cap
- Australia Aug CPI Wed 01:30 UTC and US ADP Wed 12:15 UTC add follow-through risk mid-week