AUDUSD has carved lower highs since the 0.7026 peak, capped repeatedly below 0.7010 and now pressing the lower half of the 0.6900-0.7025 range after the soft Q2 CPI cemented an RBA pause. The final bar swept to a fresh local low at 0.6920 before rebounding to close near 0.6949, a rejection of the 200-DMA support cluster around 0.6900 that has held all month. With the Fed on hold, the USD leg keeps the range intact.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7025
What it said to watch
H4 close below 0.6900 confirms a lower-low and breaks the multi-week range
Reclaim of 0.7000 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
US Core PCE/GDP Thu could shift the USD leg materially
21:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 44 · price 0.69486
Lower highs since 0.7025 peak, testing 0.6900 zone.
The multi-week advance topped out with a double top around 0.7026 and price has since carved a sequence of lower highs, dropping under both EMA20 and EMA50 after the soft Q2 CPI cemented an RBA pause. The latest bar swept the 0.6920 swing low to 0.6927 before recovering to close near 0.6949, holding the 200-DMA cluster at 0.6900 defended so far. Structure now favours retracement toward the 0.6955 (50%) and 0.6938 (61.8%) fib zone of the prior impulse.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7026, 0.6975
What it said to watch
FOMC tone tonight and Thu Core PCE/GDP drive the USD leg of this read
H4 close below 0.6900 confirms a break of the 200-dma support cluster
Reclaim of 0.7000 round number needed to break the lower-highs sequence
17:02 UTC
Rolling over, turning lower · RSI 37 · price 0.6928
Breaking below multi-week range.
AUDUSD spent two weeks capped at the 0.7020 range top with repeated rejection at the 0.7000 psych level, and has now sliced through the 0.6970 support after the soft Q2 CPI print undercut RBA hike odds. Price is trading below both EMAs at 0.6928, pressing the 0.6920 swing low as the range breaks lower. ATR is moderate, consistent with an expanding down-leg rather than compression.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6910, 0.6890
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.7000 psych negates the breakdown
FOMC decision (Wed) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 0.6920 swing low opens the 0.6890 range base
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum building lower · RSI 33 · price 0.6928
Rolled over below 0.7000, lower highs and lower lows.
AUDUSD has rolled over from the 0.7026 range high, repeatedly capped at the 0.7000 psychological level before losing the 0.6950 CPI low after yesterday's soft Australian CPI print slashed August RBA hike odds. Price now trades 0.6928 with both EMAs overhead and ATR expanding as the decline extends toward the 0.6920 swing low. Structure is a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6884
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.7000, 0.7026
What it said to watch
FOMC decision (Wed) is the dominant driver for the USD leg and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold 0.6920 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
H4 close back above the 0.6950 cpi low would neutralise the breakdown
AUDUSD capped repeatedly at the 0.7020-0.7026 triple top through mid-month, then rolled over and broke the 0.6970 range floor after the soft Q2 CPI print gutted RBA hike premium. Price now trades sub-0.6950 with a fresh swing low at 0.69367 and a clean sequence of lower highs; ATR is expanding as the leg extends. Retracement of the 0.6913-to-0.7026 up-leg is complete, with spot back near the base of that move.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70263
What it said to watch
FOMC tonight is the dominant catalyst — a hawkish hold/firm USD extends the break below 0.6970
H4 close back above 0.6970 range floor would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms a lower-low toward the 0.6913 prior low
13:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 39 · price 0.69433
Lower high below 0.7000, range breaking down.
The multi-week grind higher toward 0.7000 has failed, with twin peaks near 0.7026 forming a double top and price now breaking below the 0.6970 shelf that supported the mid-month range. Yesterday's soft Q2 CPI knocked out the RBA hike premium and pressed AUD sub-0.6950, leaving spot below both EMA20 and EMA50 for the first time in the window. Momentum has turned lower into tonight's FOMC.
Support: 0.69367, 0.69106, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.7000, 0.70263
What it said to watch
FOMC tonight is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close back above 0.6970 broken supp would neutralise the downside break
Failure to hold 0.69367 swing low confirms a lower-low toward 0.6910
09:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 36 · price 0.69467
Twin peaks sub-0.7000, breaking lower.
Price stalled repeatedly at the 0.7000 psychological cap, printing twin peaks near 0.7020-0.7026 that mark a double top before rolling over. The last bar broke down toward 0.6937 after the soft Q2 CPI print cooled RBA hike odds, dragging spot back below both EMAs. Momentum has flipped from the earlier grind higher to a lower-high, lower-low sequence.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70108, 0.70263
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.7000 negates the rollover read
Loss of 0.69367 confirms a lower low toward 0.6913
FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term risk and could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over below 0.7000 · RSI 40 · price 0.69467
Double top under 0.7026, lower highs forming.
Price capped twice near 0.7026 and has since rolled over, slipping back under the 0.7000 psychological pivot after the soft Q2 CPI miss cooled RBA hike odds. The last bar broke to 0.69367 before closing at 0.69467, printing a lower high/lower low sequence with price now under both EMAs. ATR is subdued, but the FOMC decision later today is the dominant near-term driver.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6934
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.70263
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
AUDUSD spent two weeks ranging between the 0.6961 floor and the 0.7020 range top, repeatedly rejected at the 0.7000 psych level. The last H4 bar sliced below 0.6961 to 0.69367 after the soft Australian Q2 CPI print undercut RBA hike bets; price now trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with momentum turning lower.
Support: 0.69367, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.6961, 0.7000, 0.7020
What it said to watch
H4 close back above 0.6961 negates the range break and returns price to the range
Failure to hold 0.69367 confirms a lower low toward 0.6913
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 39 · price 0.69444
Capped below 0.7000, breaking two-week range low.
AUDUSD spent roughly two weeks pinned in a 0.6960-0.7026 range with repeated failures at the 0.7000 psych level, forming a double-top look. The latest bar broke the range low and slid to 0.6944 as the soft Q2 CPI print (3.8% vs 4.0%) undercut the RBA hike case. Price now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR holding a modest H4 regime.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6900, 0.6885
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7026, 0.6975
What it said to watch
FOMC decision today could materially shift this read
Sustained trade back above 0.7000 psych negates the range break
Failure to hold 0.6920 swing low confirms a lower-low toward 0.6900
01:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 44 · price 0.69715
Consolidation capped below 0.7000.
The month-long grind higher stalled at 0.7026 and price has rolled over into a consolidation pinned beneath the 0.7000 psych cap, with repeated rejections there through the window. AUD sits at the 38.2% retrace of the 0.6882-0.7026 advance after Bullock's patient tone and a firmer USD dragged it sub-0.6970. ATR(14) is moderate and the pair is coiling between 0.6962 support and 0.7000 into a binary event.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6920, 0.6882
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7026
What it said to watch
Australia Q2 CPI in ~2h then FOMC ~16h later — either can materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.7000 reopens the 0.7026 range high
Failure to hold 0.6962 confirms a lower-low and opens 0.6920
01:03 UTC
Range, rolling to lower half · RSI 44 · price 0.69715
Multi-day range 0.6960-0.7026, capped by 50-DMA.
AUDUSD has spent two weeks capped by the 0.7020-0.7026 range high and the 38.2% Fibo/50-DMA cap flagged in the digest, repeatedly failing above the 0.7000 psych pivot. Price has drifted into the lower half of the range toward the 0.69615 swing low as Bullock's patient tone and a firmer USD weighed. ATR remains compressed with the pair coiling ahead of the Q2 CPI print.
Support: 0.69615, 0.6913
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7026
What it said to watch
Australia Q2 CPI at 01:30 GMT is imminent and a binary re-pricing event for this read
FOMC ~16h later could materially shift the USD leg
H4 close back above 0.7000 re-opens the 0.7026 range high
Failure to hold 0.69615 confirms a lower-low and pressures 200-DMA support