21:44 UTC
Downtrend from September high, rebound stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.70321
Lower highs from 0.7237; October false break below 0.6903, recovery capped at 50% retrace.
The July–August uptrend topped at the 0.7237 sept high, and the late-September slide set a lower-high, lower-low sequence. The mid-October dip to the 0.6894 oct low briefly undercut the 0.6903 late-September low before reversing, a false break that started a two-week recovery. Hot Australian September CPI lifted price to a 0.7068 monthly high midweek. That high marked a rejection at the 50% retrace of the September–October drop, just above a declining ema50 near 0.7058. Strong US data then pulled the pair back to 0.7032, between that cap and the ema20 near 0.7013.
Support: 0.7013, 0.6894, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7058, 0.7068, 0.7237
What it said to watch
- RBA decision Tue Nov 3 03:30 UTC (hike ~80% priced) could materially shift this read
- Daily close above the 0.7068 monthly high and ema50 breaks the lower-high sequence from the sept high
- Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.7013 reopens the 0.6894 oct low and the 0.6865 july low
- US ISM Manufacturing Mon Nov 2 and midterm elections Nov 3 are USD-side risks to the range