Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; tight box 76,655–76,955 since the 19:45 UTC low.
BTC fell from the 78,824 Asian-session high through London and NY. The digest's push toward $79k never showed on this chart, and the 15:45 UTC break below 77,200 lost the $77k post-hack area, reaching a 76,619 session low at 19:45 UTC. Since the NY close, price has compressed between the 76,655 range low and the 76,955 range top, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40. The 77,151 lower high sits on the 23.6% retracement of the day's drop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 76,618 session low extends the lower-low sequence out of the post-NY box
Close above the 76,955 range top and the 77,151 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the day's drop structure
US midterm voting from 05:00 UTC Tue with results overnight is crypto-regulation headline risk into the Asia and London sessions
Any outbound transfers from the hacker wallets (18,270 BTC) are an unscheduled shock risk to this range
Lower highs compressing onto a 76,655 floor after the NY breakdown.
NY faded its opening spike to 78,181 and broke lower from mid-session, falling through the sub-$77k post-hack area to a 76,619 session low as the rebound narrative lost traction. Since then price has compressed above the 76,655 range floor under a descending line of lower highs at 77,151 and 76,955. The bounce has not reached the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 44.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,955 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and the compression read
Failure to hold the 76,655 range floor exposes the 76,619 session low; a break there confirms a fresh lower-low
The 77,151 swing high and the 38.2% fib at 77,215 form the next resistance band, an area to watch for rejection or break
US midterm polls open 05:00 UTC Tue, and any outbound transfers from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 76,774.45
Lower highs from the Asia high; tight late-session band above the session low.
The rebound read in the digest has faded on this chart: steady lower highs since the 78,824 Asia high, and the NY session broke through 78k and the 77k post-hack low area to print a 76,618 session low. Late-session price is compressing between that low and the 76,955 range top, with the 77,151 lower high and the 77,316 swing high (both near the Asia high–session low fib 23.6%/38.2% zone) overhead and RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
A close below the 76,618 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery above the 76,955 range top and the 77,151 lower high, then the 77,316 swing high, breaks the intraday lower-high structure
US midterm polls open 05:00 UTC Tue with results overnight, and any outbound moves from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY open, tight late-NY range 76655–76955.
The short-covering rebound in the digest topped at 78824 in Asia. The NY spike to 78176 was rejected, and the 15:45 UTC slide broke the London low at 77544. A lower-high chain since has pushed price back under 77k toward the post-hack low area. Late NY has compressed into a base low near 76655, above the 76619 session low, with the 76955 swing high capping and the bounce off the session low stalling near the 38.2% of the NY drop fib. RSI(14) is neutral and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 76,618.62
Resistance: 76,955.25, 77,151.04, 77,543.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76955 swing high and the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday lower-high chain; 77151 lower high next
Failure to hold the 76619 session low extends the lower-low sequence out of the base
A reclaim of the 77544 london low would retrace most of the NY drop fib
Midterm polls open 05:00 UTC with results overnight; crypto-regulation read could materially shift this read
Any outbound transfer from the hacker wallets is a downside shock risk
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 76,775.45
Lower highs from 78180 NY-open spike; late-NY range 76618–77151.
The NY-open spike to 78180 failed, and the 15:45 UTC drop broke the london low at 77543. That leg extended to a session low of 76618, about 2,200 below the 78824 Asian high, so the digest's $79k test is not visible on this chart. Late NY trade has flattened into a band with a range floor near 76655 and a range top at 76955, capped by the 77151 swing high. RSI(14) sits near 42, neutral rather than stretched.
Resistance: 76,955.25, 77,151.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 76618 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the sub-$77k post-hack area
Reclaim of the 77151 swing high, then the 77543 london low, would undo the NY breakdown read
Repeated failures at the 76955 range top keep price pinned to the range floor into the Asia session
US midterm results overnight (polls from 05:00 UTC Tue) could break the current compression either way
Any outbound transfer from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC is a downside shock risk to this structure
The 78,824 Asia high faded through London. NY broke through the 77,543 prior low at 15:45 UTC and slid to a 76,619 session low, so the short-covering rebound in the digest has not held on this chart and price sits back under the $77k post-hack area. Late-NY trade is compressing above the twin lows at 76,656, with lower highs since the 77,151 swing high and RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
Close below the 76,619 session low breaks the twin lows floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the lower highs line near 76,950, then the 77,151 swing high, invalidates the compression read and puts the 77,543 prior low back in play
US midterm results overnight (polls open 05:00 UTC Tue) or any outbound move from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; tight base above the session low.
Price has faded steadily from the 78,824 Asian high through London and NY, setting lower highs after the 13:45 UTC spike to 78,181 and a NY-session low at 76,619. The digest's short-covering bounce toward $79k has unwound on this chart. Since 20:00 UTC price has compressed between the 76,655 swing low and the 76,943 lower high, with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,151 swing high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence; 77,317 prior high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 76,655 swing low and the 76,619 session low extends the lower-low chain
Midterm results overnight into Asia session Tue could materially shift this read
Any outbound transfer from the 19 hacker wallets is a downside-shock risk regardless of structure
22:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 44 · price 76,811.41
Lower highs from 78824 Asia high, tight range above 76620 day low.
The short-covering push toward $79k cited in the digest stalled at the 78824 Asia high. A NY-session flush from 78000 broke 77500 and set a 76620 day low. Late NY is compressing in a 76620–76960 range below lower highs at 77151, with RSI(14) near 44 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 76,620.00
Resistance: 76,960.00, 77,151.00, 77,460.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 76960 range top and the 77151 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
A break of the 76620 day low, tested three times, would extend the lower-low chain
Reclaiming 77460, the 38.2% fib of the Asia high–day low drop, would challenge the downtrend read
US midterm results overnight, or any movement from the hacker wallets, could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 76,862.35
Lower highs capping a flat base near 76,620–76,655.
The Asia high at 78,824 marked the top of the rebound toward $79k. The move faded through London, and the post-hack overhang and ETF outflows showed through NY hours as price broke 77,234 and the $77k area to print a session low at 76,618. Since then a lower high at 77,151 and a run of lower highs have held closes under the 77,000 round number, with a double low at 76,655 forming the base.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,151 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens 77,316 swing high
Failure to hold the 76,618 session low extends the downtrend below the double low
US midterms (polls from 05:00 UTC Tue, results overnight) could materially shift this read
Any outbound transfers from the hacker wallets risk a fresh downside spike
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 76,753.47
Lower highs from Asia high; tight late-NY range above swing low.
BTC topped at the 78,824 Asia session high, printed lower highs through London, then broke the 77,543 London low during NY hours. The drop ran to a 76,619 swing low as the short-covering bounce toward $79k faded and the $77k post-hack area gave way. Late NY is compressing between repeat lows near 76,656 and the 77,151 lower high, with RSI(14) near 40 and a descending trendline capping each bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,151 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 77,543 london low, near the 38.2% retrace of the Asia high to NY low drop, would turn that level back into support
Failure to hold the 76,656 repeat lows and the 76,619 swing low extends the lower-low chain
US midterm results overnight Tue and any on-chain moves from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; tight base 76,618–77,151 late NY.
After the 78,824 Asia high, price formed lower highs through London and NY. A 15:45 UTC break of the 77,543 NY low extended the slide to a 76,618 session low, and the rebound noted in the digest faded well short of 79k. Since 19:45 UTC price has held a base low near 76,655 under the 77,151 lower high, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 76,618 session low and 76,655 base low extends the lower-low chain toward the post-hack low area
Close above the 77,151 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; the 77,316 swing high is next
Reclaim of the 77,543 NY low, the breakdown point, would neutralise the NY selloff read
US midterm results overnight (polls open 05:00 UTC Tue) could materially shift this read; any outbound transfer from the hacker wallets is a separate downside shock risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 78,824 Asia high; pressing the 76,618 session low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 77,990, and NY broke the 77,620–78,180 range at 16:45 UTC, carrying BTC to a 76,618 session low. Late-NY bounces stalled at 77,000 psych, with a lower high at 77,151 under the 77,317 swing high, so the NY leg fib's 38.2% is not reclaimed. Price has given up the digest's $78k pivot and sits below the $77k post-hack low area; RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 76,618 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 76,500 round number
M15 close above the 77,151 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 77,317 swing high sits just above
US midterm results overnight, or any outbound transfer from the hacker wallets, could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 76,851.37
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high; tight late-NY range.
Price has made lower highs and lower lows since the 78,824 Asia session high. The post-hack rebound has fully unwound, and price is back below the 77,000 round number into late NY hours. The last two hours have compressed between the 76,619 session low and the 77,151 lower high, with the 76,783 swing low just underneath and RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 76,619 session low extends the lower-low chain; a break of the 76,783 swing low comes first.
Recovery above the 77,000 round number and the 77,151 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 77,317 swing high is next above.
US midterm results overnight (polls open 05:00 UTC) or any outbound transfers from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since NY open; late-NY basing between 76,620 and 77,150.
The Asian high at 78,824 capped the rebound short of 79k. London broke the Asian range low, and the NY sell-off from 78,180 then extended to a 76,618 session low, consistent with the digest's risk-off fade, while lower highs stay pinned under a descending trendline. Price is now basing on a 76,820 range floor just below the 77,000 round number, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
What it said to watch
A close below the 76,618 session low extends the lower-low chain.
A close through the descending trendline and above the 77,151 lower high, near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib at about 77,215, would break the lower-high sequence; the 77,317 swing high sits above.
Repeated failure to hold the 76,820 range floor below the 77,000 round number keeps the late-NY range under pressure.
US midterm results overnight, or any outbound transfers from the 18,270 BTC hacker wallets, could materially shift this read.
LH/LL chain from the 78,824 Asia high; late NY holding near session low.
The rebound toward $79k that the digest describes failed at the 78,824 Asia high. Price has since printed lower highs at 78,180 (NY open) and 77,320 (swing high), and NY broke the 77,545 london low at 15:45 UTC on the way to a 76,620 session low. Late NY bounces are stalling at the 77,030 lower high, with the 76,780 swing low the nearest floor and price below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,320 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; reclaiming the 77,545 london low would neutralise the NY breakdown
Failure to hold the 76,620 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US midterms Tue (polls from 05:00 UTC, results overnight) could materially shift this read
Any outbound transfers from the 19 hacker wallets could trigger a fresh downside spike
20:04 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off day low · RSI 40 · price 77,008.19
Lower highs and lower lows from the 78,824 Asia high; price back at 77,000.
Lower highs since the 78,824 Asia high. The NY session broke the 77,543 breakdown level at 15:45 UTC and pressed into the sub-$77k post-hack zone the digest flagged as the rebound-fades scenario, below the 76,783 swing low to a 76,618 day low. The 19:45 UTC bar rejected the day low and closed back at the 77,000 psych level, with the 77,317 lower high, near the NY leg fib 50%, overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,317 lower high (NY leg fib 50%) breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 76,783 swing low and 76,618 day low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 77,543 breakdown level would neutralise the NY-session drop
US midterms (polls from 05:00 UTC Tue) or any hacker-wallet movement could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain after NY range break, fresh session lows.
The Asia high at 78,824 capped the rebound, and NY broke the 77,540–78,180 midday range at 15:45 UTC. Price is now printing a fresh session low at 76,649, below the $77k post-hack low area the digest flags. Each bounce has stalled lower along the lower-highs trendline, with 77,000 psych capping the last three bars; RSI(14) near 32 is not yet at an extreme.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 77,000 psych and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Reclaim of the 77,317 lower high and the 77,544 prior low (London low) would negate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 76,649 session low extends the leg toward the 76,500 round number
Any on-chain movement from the hacker wallets, or US midterm results overnight Tue, could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 36 · price 76,934.27
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asia high; tight late-NY band above the session low.
The Asia-session high at 78,824 capped the short-covering rebound flagged in the digest. Lower highs followed through London, and the NY break of the 77,544 broken low at 15:45 UTC ran to a 76,783 session low, back under the $77k post-hack area. Late NY is compressing in a roughly 180-wide band above that low, with the 77,317 bounce high capping and RSI(14) near 36, short of oversold.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,317 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 77,544 broken low, which sits at the 38.2% rebound fib, would mark the first structural repair
Failure at the 76,783 session low extends the lower-low chain
The 78k pivot is the upper marker of today's NY chop
US midterm results overnight (Nov 3) could materially shift this read
Any on-chain movement from the hacker wallets could drive sharp downside spikes
Lower highs and lower lows from the 78,824 Asia high; tight base above 76,783.
The Asia rebound toward $79k stalled at 78,824. London then broke the Asian range low, and NY extended the decline to a 76,783 session low as USD recovered Monday's early losses. Price is now basing at 76,830–76,850, capped under the 77,000 psych level, with a lower high at 77,317. RSI(14) is near 35, soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
A close back above 77,000 psych and the 77,317 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and the 23.6% retrace of the decline
Failure to hold the base and the 76,783 session low confirms another lower-low in the post-hack low area
Reclaiming the 77,550 broken low, near the 38.2% retrace of the decline, would neutralise the NY breakdown
US midterms Tue, results overnight, and any transfers from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 32 · price 76,956.25
Lower highs from 78824 Asia high; NY broke below 77544 prior low and printed a 76783 session low.
The short-covering rebound peaked at 78824 in the Asia session and faded through London. NY then broke the 77544 prior low after rejection at the 78176 NY high, and dropped to a 76783 session low near the post-hack $77k area. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 77317 swing high, which sits on the 38.2% retrace; the 76848 higher low is marginal, RSI(14) is near 32 and both EMAs sit overhead.
Support: 76,848.00, 76,783.00
Resistance: 77,317.00, 77,544.00, 78,176.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 77317 swing high (38.2%) breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 77544 prior low turns the NY breakdown into a false break
Loss of the 76783 session low extends the lower-low chain below $77k
US midterm results overnight and any hacker-wallet BTC movement could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since 15:45 UTC · RSI 27 · price 76,919.29
NY range break lower, 38.2% fib rejection capping the bounce.
Late in the NY session, BTC broke below the 77,540–78,180 NY range at 15:45 UTC and extended to a 76,783 session low, well beneath the Asian range. The digest's short-covering rebound has unwound on this chart. The 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 77,317, leaving a lower high below 77,541, and RSI(14) is near 27, not yet extreme.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 77,541 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 76,783 session low extends the sequence toward the 76,500 round number
Reclaiming the 78,181 ny high would negate the NY range break
Loan Officer Survey 19:00 UTC, overnight midterm results or any hacker-wallet transfers could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended through the NY session · RSI 35 · price 76,959.25
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia-session high at 78,824.
The Asia-session high at 78,824 marked the top, and London and NY extended the lower-high and lower-low chain. NY broke the 77,543 prior low and the Asian range, then printed a session low at 76,783. The rebound stalled at the 77,317 lower high, the 38.2% retracement of the NY leg, and price is now holding under the 77,000 psych level. RSI(14) is near 35, and the digest's short-covering rebound has unwound on ETF outflows and the hack overhang.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,896 minor low and the 76,783 session low extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close back above the 77,317 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence; reclaiming the 77,543 prior low negates the breakdown
Acceptance back above the 77,000 psych level would mark the first sign of the selling stalling
Overnight midterm results, or any outbound moves from the hacker wallets, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 03:45 UTC Asia high; NY range broken lower.
After London close, BTC broke the 77,620–78,180 NY range at 15:45 UTC from the 78,004 breakdown high. It extended to a 76,783 session low beneath the $77k psych area, as the short-covering rebound in the digest faded. The bounce has capped at 77,317, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement, with price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 77,540 (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of 77,000 psych and the 76,783 session low confirms another lower-low
Reclaim of the 78,004 breakdown level invalidates the downtrend read
US midterms Tue (polls from 05:00 UTC) and any hacker-wallet BTC movement could materially shift this read
18:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 32 · price 77,069.13
Broke below the 77,543 range floor; holding just above 77k.
The short-covering rebound peaked at 78,824 in the Asia session and faded from there. NY broke the 77,543 range floor, and the sell-off reached a 76,783 session low inside the sub-77k post-hack low area. Price is now pinned near the 77,000 round number late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 32.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 77,543 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 77,000 round number and the 76,783 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery into the 78k pivot (61.8% fib of the sell-off) would test the breakdown zone
US midterms Tuesday (polls from 05:00 UTC) or any hacker-wallet transfers could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 78,824 Asian high; NY range base broken.
BTC topped at 78,824 in the Asia session and has since printed lower highs. The 16:15 UTC bar around Goolsbee's remarks broke the 77,550–78,180 NY range base, and price lost the 77,000 psych level after London close to a 76,878 session low. The chart is running against the digest's short-covering rebound read. RSI(14) at 27 is stretched but not extreme, and the only bounce so far stalled at a 77,542 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the move from the NY high.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,878 session low leaves the 76,500 round number as the next reference
Reclaim of 77,000 psych and the 77,210 broken low would neutralise the breakdown
M15 close above the 77,542 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Senior Loan Officer Survey (19:00 UTC), Tuesday's midterm results or any hacker-wallet movement could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 28 · price 77,045.15
LH/LL chain from 78824 Asia high, NY range broken lower.
BTC has faded steadily from the 78824 Asia high. NY opened with a spike to the 78180 NY high, then broke below the 77543 London low after ISM, and is now printing a session low at 77040, just above the $77k round number and the post-hack low area flagged in the digest. RSI(14) near 28 and every bounce since has capped at a lower high under the descending highs line.
Support: 77,040.00, 77,000.00
Resistance: 77,210.00, 77,541.00, 78,180.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77000 round number extends the lower-low sequence below the post-hack lows
M15 close back above the 77210 broken low eases downside pressure; reclaiming the 77541 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain
Any on-chain movement from the hacker wallets or new hack-loss headlines could spike volatility at the 77k area
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and Tuesday midterm results are the next headline risks for this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 78,824 Asia high, tight base above 77,210.
Each high since the 78,824 Asia session peak has been lower. The 15:45 UTC drop broke the 77,543 range floor and set a 77,210 session low; the bounce has capped at 77,541, below the 38.2% retrace of the NY leg from the 78,181 lower high. The digest describes a short-covering rebound toward $79k, but price has already faded back toward the $77k post-hack low area, with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,541 bounce high, then the 78,000 round number, would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 77,210 session low exposes the 77,000 psych level and the post-hack lows
Midterm elections Tue Nov 3 (polls from 05:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Any outbound transfers from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 77,458.70
Lower highs and lower lows from the 78,824 Asia high; NY range broken lower, bounce capped at the broken low.
The rebound topped at the 78,824 Asia high and has printed lower highs since. A NY-session range break below 77,545 ran to a 77,210 session low, and the bounce is now capping at that broken low with RSI(14) near 40. The digest's push toward $79k is not visible on this chart, with ETF outflows and the stolen-coin overhang as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 77,545 broken low negates the retest read; the 78,005 lower high is next above
Failure to hold the 77,210 session low exposes the 77,000 psych / post-hack low area
Acceptance above the 78,180 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the Asia high–session low fib 50% zone near 78,017
Midterm results overnight Tue or any outbound move from the hacker wallets could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia peak; NY broke below the prior lows.
The rebound faded from the Asia high at 78,824. Lower highs at 78,338 and 78,181 capped London and NY, and NY broke below the 77,545 prior low to print a 77,210 session low during the Goolsbee window. Price is retesting the prior low from below, under both EMAs, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 77,545 prior low would mark the NY breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 77,210 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 77,000 psych level
A reclaim of the 78,181 NY high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US midterm results overnight Tue, or any outbound moves from the hacker wallets, could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 37 · price 77,301.87
Lower highs from Asia session high; NY range broken to downside.
Lower highs from the 78,824 Asia session high capped every bounce. The 15:45 UTC bar, about 45 min after the ISM beat, broke the 77,620–78,084 NY range and the 77,544 prior low, printing a 77,210 session low with RSI(14) near 37. The digest's push toward $79k has unwound on this chart; the 77,000 round number, the post-hack low area, sits just below.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77,210 session low exposes the 77,000 round number / post-hack low area
M15 close back above 77,544 (prior low) would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 78,004 breakdown hi and 78,176 NY high would break the lower-high sequence off the trendline
Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) tone and any hacker-wallet movement could extend the move; midterm results overnight are the larger risk
Lower highs from the 78,824 Asian high; NY range broken to the downside.
Lower highs since the 78,824 Asian high. The NY range (77,623 range floor to 78,181 ny high) that formed around the ISM beat gave way in a 770-dollar bar late in the first half of NY. It undercut the 77,544 london low and set a session low at 77,219, at odds with the 79k rebound story for now. RSI(14) near 36 is cooling but not oversold, and price sits below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 77,623 range floor would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 77,219 session low exposes the 77,000 psych and post-hack low area
The 38.2% retracement of the NY drop near 77,586 sits with the london low, a zone to watch for rejection or break
A close above the lower-highs line near 78,100 and the 78,181 ny high negates the downtrend read
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in NY · RSI 38 · price 77,438.72
Lower highs since Asia high; NY range broken to the downside.
The Asia high at 78824 gave way to lower highs through London and NY. The NY-open high at 78181 faded, and the 15:45 UTC bar broke the 77544 prior low to print a 77235 spike low. RSI(14) sits near 38 and price trades below both EMAs, so the chart contradicts the digest's short-covering rebound and reflects the fragile hack-overhang tone.
Support: 77,234.94, 77,000.00
Resistance: 77,543.60, 78,029.07, 78,180.90
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 77544 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 77235 spike low exposes the 77000 round number and post-hack low area
Close above the 78029 lower high (50% fib of the drop from the Asia high) breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, any hacker-wallet movement and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Down-leg from Asia high, basing in NY · RSI 52 · price 78,004.10
NY compression: lower highs from 78181, higher lows from 77544.
The Asia run to 78824 faded through London and found a day low at 77544 around 13:15 UTC, just under Sunday's 77573 low, before a sharp sweep reversal to 78181. NY has since compressed between lower highs off that ny high and a higher low at 77712. Price is pressing 78000 against the ema50 and the 38.2% retrace near 78030, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 77,712.00, 77,544.00
Resistance: 78,030.00, 78,181.00, 78,338.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 78181 ny high breaks the compression and opens the 78338 london high
Failure to hold the 77712 higher low puts the 77544 day low back in play
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
Any outbound transfers from the Binance hacker wallets are a downside shock risk regardless of structure
Lower highs since Asia high; NY holding a higher low above swept day low.
The Asia push stalled at 78,824, short of $79k, and London unwound it below the Asian range. The NY open swept Sunday's low into a 77,544 day low, then a short-covering spike ran to 78,181 (ny high, 50% fib). Since then NY has compressed into lower highs capped near 78,030 (38.2% fib), above a 77,623 ny low, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower highs line near 78,030 breaks the NY compression; acceptance above the 78,181 ny high opens the 78,337 london high
Failure to hold the 77,623 ny low exposes a retest of the 77,544 day low
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and any outbound moves from the Binance hacker wallets could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight are a high-impact risk beyond this session
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing into NY · RSI 51 · price 77,894.22
Lower highs from 03:45 UTC peak; NY chop 77543–78180.
London broke the Asian range low near 77986 and printed lower highs into a 77543 session low at 13:15 UTC. Price swept Sunday's 77572 low and rebounded hard to a 78180 spike high as hack-related headlines kept swings wide. Since then NY hours have chopped between the 77623 NY low and the 38.2% fib at 78030. The 15:00 ISM bar stayed inside that range, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around $207.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78180 spike high clears the 50% fib and breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 78337 London high next
Repeated rejection under the 78030 fib 38.2 keeps the NY range capped
Failure to hold the 77623 NY low reopens the 77543 session low
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and any hacker-wallet or ETF-flow headlines could materially shift this read
15:04 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, chopping near lows · RSI 47 · price 77,795.33
Lower highs since 78824; sweep low at 77543, wide range below 78180.
The overnight hack-relief push stalled at the 78824 asia high, well short of $79k, and has printed lower highs since, including the 78337 london high. During the London-NY transition price swept under Sunday's 77572 low to a 77543 sweep low, and the rebound high at 78180 was rejected at the 50% retrace of the decline. Price is now chopping around 77800 above the 77623 ny low into ISM, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and EMA20/50 overhead.
Resistance: 78,824.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78180 rebound high (50% retrace) opens the 78337 london high / 61.8% zone
A close back above the 78824 asia high would invalidate the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 77623 ny low exposes the 77543 sweep low; a close below confirms a lower-low
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, now chopping mid-range · RSI 47 · price 77,789.33
Lower highs since Asia; sweep of Sunday low then capped at 50% retrace.
Price has printed lower highs since the 78,824 Asia high, a sequence that held through the London session. Into the NY open it swept Sunday's 77,572 low to a 77,544 day low and snapped back to 78,181. That NY spike high stalled almost exactly at the 50% retrace of the move. Price now sits just above a 77,675 higher low with RSI(14) near 47, as hack-related headlines and ETF outflows keep the bounce fragile.
What it said to watch
A close above the 78,181 ny spike high and the lower highs line would open the 78,337 london high, which sits at the 61.8% retrace
Loss of the 77,675 higher low exposes the 77,544 day low; a break there would extend lower lows toward 77,000 psych
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia high; session low swept, spike rejected.
The Asia session high at 78,824 has given way to lower highs through London, matching the digest's read of a fragile, short-covering bounce. The 13:15 UTC flush to the 77,544 sweep low took out Sunday's 77,573 low and briefly lifted price to a 78,181 spike high, but that move was rejected within two bars. Price sits near 77,845, below EMA20 with RSI(14) at 48, and the 77,675 pullback low is holding ahead of the 15:00 UTC ISM print.
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read within the next few bars
M15 close above the 78,000 round number and the 78,181 spike high would break the lower-highs line; the 78,338 london high sits next above
Failure to hold the 77,675 pullback low would reopen the 77,544 sweep low
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC is a second headline risk this NY session
14:17 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, lower highs intact · RSI 44 · price 77,798.32
Lower highs from 78,824; day-low sweep reversed, spike rejected.
Since the 78,824 Asian high, BTC has printed lower highs, including the 78,338 london high, and sits in early NY hours. The 13:15 UTC dip swept Sunday's 77,573 low to a 77,544 day low, then a spike stalled at the 78,181 spike high, almost exactly the 50% fib of the Asian high to day low leg. Price is now back below 78,000 and both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 44, a softer chart than the digest's relief-bounce tone.
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read; Goolsbee speaks at 16:15 UTC
A close above the 78,181 spike high and 50% fib breaks the lower-highs line, putting the 78,338 london high in play
Failure to hold the 77,729 swing low reopens the 77,544 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
14:05 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, NY-open spike rejected · RSI 46 · price 77,861.25
Lower highs and lower lows since 78824; sweep of Sunday low, then rejection at the 50% retrace.
London unwound the Asia rally from the 78824 Asia high through a chain of lower highs. That run printed a 77544 sweep low just under Sunday's 77573 low before NY open. The NY-open spike stalled at the 78181 spike high, right at the 50% retrace of that leg and through the lower-highs line, then rejected back to 77860, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 77,543.60
Resistance: 78,180.90, 78,337.73, 78,824.19
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, with Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 78181 spike high, then 78338 lower high, breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 77544 sweep low confirms another lower low and puts psych 77k in view
ATR near 180 points: NY-open bars running 2-3x normal range, hack/ETF-outflow headlines amplify swings
Lower highs and lower lows through London, broken by NY-open thrust off a sweep low.
London extended a lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 78,824 asia high, sweeping Sunday's 77,573 low to a 77,544 sweep low before the NY-open bar reclaimed the 77,986 asia low and tagged the 50% fib near the 78,181 ny open high. RSI(14) has recovered to about 56. The thrust fits the digest's short-covering read, with Binance-hack and ETF-outflow overhang still in the background.
What it said to watch
A close above the 78,338 london high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence; rejection at the ny open high leaves the bounce corrective
A close back under the broken lower-high line and the 77,986 asia low exposes the 77,730 swing low and 77,544 sweep low
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, Asian range low broken, now testing Sunday's low area.
The Asian session high at 78824 stalled short of $79k. Since then the relief bounce has faded into a chain of lower highs from the 78338 London high. Price broke the Asian low near 77864, and the pre-NY slide printed a 77543 session low, under Sunday's 77572 low, with RSI(14) near 29. This fits the digest's hack and ETF-outflow overhang.
Support: 77,000.00
Resistance: 77,729.40, 78,059.04, 78,337.73
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 77729 broken low would ease the immediate pressure, with the 78059 lower high next above
Failure to hold the 77543 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 77000 round number
The 38.2% retracement of the Asian high-to-session-low leg sits near 78033, close to the 78059 lower high
A close above the 78338 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Downtrend from the Asia high, momentum stretched · RSI 30 · price 77,641.50
Lower highs and lower lows since 78,824; pressing session low pre-NY open.
The 78,824 Asia high has given way to a chain of lower highs and lower lows. The london high at 78,338 and the 12:15 UTC lower high at 78,059 capped each bounce as the relief rally faded, and the 77,730 prior low gave way. Price is pressing the session low at 77,615 in the London-NY transition, just above the sunday low at 77,573, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR(14) around $140.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 77,730 prior low and the 78,059 lower high would break the lower-high chain
A close below the 77,573 sunday low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 77,000 psych level (post-hack lows) in view
ISM Manufacturing PMI (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets is a headline risk that could extend the decline from the session low
LH/LL chain from 78,824; Asian range low broken during London.
Since the 78,824 Asian session high, price has printed lower highs at the 78,337 london high and the 78,015 lower high. London broke below the Asian low at 77,864 and set a session low at 77,642. The relief bounce is fading on hack overhang and ETF outflows, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs early in the London-NY transition.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77,642 session low exposes the 77,572 prior low, the floor of Sunday's late range
An M15 close back above the 77,864 Asian low and the descending lower-high trendline near 78,015 would break the LH/LL chain
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6 / 77), then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 77,840.28
Asian range low broken; lower highs and lower lows through London.
The London session broke the asian low at 77986 and extended the decline from the 78824 Asia high, with a london high at 78337 and a lower high at 78059 capping the bounces. The 12:30 UTC flush to the 77642 session low was rejected back to 77840, but price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36 as the short-covering bounce fades.
Support: 77,642.49
Resistance: 77,986.12, 78,059.04
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77642 session low exposes the 77572 sunday low and the $77k post-hack area
Reclaiming the asian low at 77986 and closing above the 78059 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
A push through the 78337 london high would invalidate the M15 downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC (17:00 broker), then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia high; Asian range broken lower in London.
Since the 78824 Asia high, London broke below the Asian low near 78090, printing a london high at 78338 and a lower high at 78059. It then tagged a session low at 77729 before bouncing to the 78000 psych area, with RSI(14) near 38. The digest frames the broader relief bounce after the Binance hack as short-covering-led, and the recovery from the prior low at 77864 is still capped below the descending lower-high line.
Support: 77,864.25, 77,729.40
Resistance: 78,059.04, 78,337.73, 78,824.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78059 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the london high at 78338 (near the fib 50–61.8% zone) into view
Failure to hold the prior low at 77864, then the 77729 session low, extends the lower-low sequence toward the sunday low at 77572
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Headlines on the dormant Binance hacker wallets are an unscheduled risk to the intraday structure
12:17 UTC
Downtrend from Asia high, bouncing off session low · RSI 43 · price 78,037.06
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high, now pressing the descending line.
London extended the lower-high/lower-low sequence off the 78824 asia high, printing a session low at 77729 before a sharp rejection of that low lifted price back to 78037, just above ema20 and through the descending line. The 78143 lower high sits on the 38.2% retracement, and the rebound fits the digest's short-covering relief read after the Binance hack rather than a flow turn.
Support: 77,729.40
Resistance: 78,142.94, 78,337.73, 78,824.19
What it said to watch
M15 close above 78143 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the descending structure and puts the 78338 london high in play
Failure back below 77729 session low confirms another lower low and reopens 77572 sunday low
Move back under the descending line from the asia high marks a false break
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high · RSI 29 · price 77,841.28
Lower highs and lower lows through London, at 78.6% of the Asia rally.
The short-covering bounce from the 77572 swing low peaked at the 78824 Asian session high. London has since printed a lower high at 78338 and a new intraday low at 77729 under a descending trendline. Price sits at the 78.6% retracement of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 29 as the post-hack relief move fades.
Support: 77,729.40
Resistance: 78,000.00, 78,337.73, 78,824.19
What it said to watch
A break of the 77729 intraday low extends the lower-low chain toward the 77572 swing low
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 78000 round number (near the 61.8% fib) negates the lower-high sequence; 78338 lower high is next
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets is a headline risk to the 77572 swing low
11:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 27 · price 77,817.30
Lower-high chain from 78824; Asian range low broken during London.
The Asia-session relief rally topped at the 78824 asia high, short of $79k, and has since printed a chain of lower highs. The London bounce stalled at the 78338 london high before price slipped through the Asian range low and the 07:45 UTC swing at 77864, with the post-hack bounce fading against record ETF outflows. RSI(14) is near 27 with price below EMA20 and EMA50, and the old 77920 prior floor is now capping.
Support: 77,779.34, 77,572.57
Resistance: 77,920.19, 78,337.73, 78,824.19
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77779 session low exposes the sunday low at 77573
Recovery above the 77920 prior floor and the lower-high line near 78000 would stall the downtrend read
M15 close above the 78338 london high invalidates the lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) during NY hours could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 34 · price 77,821.30
LH/LL chain from 78,824; repeated caps just under 78,000.
BTC has retraced most of the overnight rally from the 77,573 Sunday low to the 78,824 Asia high, a 78.6% pullback. London printed a lower high at 78,338, highs have stalled just under the 78,000 round number, and the latest bar set a fresh session low at 77,798 with RSI(14) near 34. The fading relief bounce fits the hack overhang and record ETF outflows in the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77,798 session low exposes the Sunday low zone at 77,573–77,599
An M15 close above the 78,000 round number and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 78,338 London high above
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 77,913.20
Asian high faded, lower highs into London.
The overnight short-covering bounce from the 77,575 swing low topped at the 78,825 Asian high, short of the $79k resistance flagged in the digest. London has printed lower highs along a falling trendline, with the 78,340 London high capping. Price is back below the 78,000 round number, holding the 78.6% fib near the 77,850 London low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77,850 london low exposes the 77,575 swing low and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 78,000 round number and a break of the falling trendline turns the focus back to the 78,340 london high
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets is unscheduled headline risk
11:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 45 · price 77,965.14
Lower-high chain from 78824, London pressing session low.
The Asian session's short-covering push to the 78824 Asian high faded into a chain of lower highs. London was rejected at 78337 (London high) and price now sits on the 77902 session low, below both EMAs. The move has retraced about 69% of the Sunday low rally, with RSI(14) near 45 and no momentum extreme.
Support: 77,902.21, 77,864.25
Resistance: 78,824.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77864 swing low confirms a lower low and reopens the 77572 Sunday low
Close above the 78142 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 78337 London high next above
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Hack-wallet or ETF-flow headlines remain a source of sudden range expansion
10:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, unwinding the Asia rally · RSI 40 · price 77,922.19
Lower highs and lower lows since the 78,824 Asia high; testing the 77,920 intraday base.
The Asia-session rally from the 77,573 Sunday low topped at the 78,824 Asia high. London has since retraced past the 61.8% fib near 78,050, printing lower highs at 78,426 and 78,338. Price is pressing the 77,920 base just above the 77,864 London low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs as the short-covering bounce noted in the digest fades back under the 78,000 round number.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77,864 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 77,573 sunday low
Reclaiming the 78,000 round number and clearing the 78,338 lower high would break the lower-highs trendline from the asia high
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read during NY hours
10:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 41 · price 77,962.14
Lower high at 78,338 under 78,824 Asia high, pressing the 77,864 session low.
The overnight rally from the 77,573 swing low peaked at the 78,824 Asia high. Price has since retraced about 69% of that move, with London rejected at a 78,338 lower high and BTC slipping back under the 78,000 round number. RSI(14) sits near 41 as price leans on the 77,864 session low, consistent with the digest's read of a short-covering bounce with little spot follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77,864 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 77,573 swing low
Reclaim of the 78,000 round number and a break of the 78,338 lower high would negate the lower-high trendline
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Movement from the hacker wallets or ETF-outflow headlines remains a source of abrupt intraday volatility
10:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 77,944.16
Lower-high/lower-low sequence off the 78,824 Asia high.
The overnight rally from the 77,572 sunday low topped at the 78,824 asia high. Mid-London, price is back below the fib 61.8 at 78,050, with the London high at 78,337 capping a lower-high trendline and RSI(14) near 38. The digest's hack and ETF-outflow overhang fits the fade of a short-covering bounce.
What it said to watch
Close below the 77,864 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 77,572 sunday low
Close back above the lower-high trendline and the 78,337 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Reclaim of the fib 61.8 at 78,050 would put price back inside the upper half of the overnight move; the 78,824 asia high is the next marked level above
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 77,969.13
Lower highs at 78824, 78337 and 78142 into the 78k handle.
The short-covering rally off the 77572 weekend low topped at the 78824 session high in Asia. London has since printed lower highs at 78337 and 78142, and price is back on the 78k handle inside the 0.618–0.786 zone of the overnight rally fib, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40. Fragile post-hack sentiment and ETF outflows give the bounce little follow-through.
Support: 77,864.25
Resistance: 78,824.19
What it said to watch
Break below the 77864 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 77572 weekend low
Close back above the 78337 London high invalidates the lower-high read
Failure to clear the 78142 lower high keeps the lower-high line intact
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets is a headline risk to the 78k area
09:47 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 78,059.04
Lower highs from 78824 Asia high, higher low still intact above 77864.
The rally off the 77572 Sunday low topped at the 78824 Asia high and has since printed lower highs. London dipped to 77864, then met rejection at 78337. Price sits on the 61.8% retrace near 78050, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43, as the short-covering post-hack bounce loses steam.
Support: 77,977.00, 77,864.00, 77,572.00
Resistance: 78,337.00, 78,426.00, 78,824.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78337 London high, then the 78426 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 77977 swing low and 77864 London low exposes the 77572 Sunday low
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fresh on-chain movement from Binance hacker wallets is a headline risk to the bounce structure
09:32 UTC
Intraday lower highs since Asia peak, early London · RSI 40 · price 78,064.03
Asian range broken lower; London bounce capped below 78337.
London opened with a break of the Asian low at 78214, printing a 77864 london low before the bounce met rejection at 78337. Lower highs run from the 78824 asian high, and price now sits on the 61.8% rally fib near 78050 with RSI(14) around 40. The post-hack relief bounce is stalling well short of $79k.
Support: 78,000.00, 77,864.25
Resistance: 78,824.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 78337 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 78000 round number and the 77864 london low exposes the 77572 sunday low (78.6% rally fib near 77840)
Reclaim of the 78214 asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, stabilising mid-range · RSI 46 · price 78,198.88
Higher low at 77864 held; London high capped at 78338, price pivoting on flat EMAs.
The Asia rally from the 77572 Sunday low topped at the 78824 Asia high, then retraced deep to a 77864 swing low before London open, a higher low on the move. The London bounce met rejection at the 78338 London high, near the 38.2% fib, and price is now pivoting around the 50% (~78198) on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 46, in a relief bounce the digest ties to post-hack short-covering rather than spot demand.
Support: 78,032.00, 77,864.00, 77,572.00
Resistance: 78,338.00, 78,426.00, 78,824.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78338 London high opens the 78426 lower high, then the 78824 Asia high
Loss of the 78032 higher low (double bar low) exposes the 77864 swing low and the rising higher-lows line
Break of 77864 would put the 77572 Sunday low back in play
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets is a headline risk that could break the range abruptly
09:04 UTC
Pullback after Asia rally, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 78,248.83
Deep retrace into Asian range, London rebounding.
The hack-relief bounce carried the Asia session from Sunday's 77,573 low to a 78,824 Asia high. Price then retraced about 77% to a 77,864 Asia low just before London. Early London has lifted price back above the 50% fib at 78,198, but the 78,338 London high sits on a descending line of lower highs from 78,824, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,338 London high breaks the lower-high line; the 78,427 lower high and 78,824 Asia high are next
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 78,050 reopens the 77,864 Asia low
ISM Mfg PMI 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, early-London rebound · RSI 48 · price 78,246.83
Lower highs since the 03:45 UTC peak; descending trendline broken, London-open low held above Sunday low.
BTC faded from the 78,824 Asia high into a 77,864 London-open low near the 78.6% retrace of the Sunday-low rally. It has since cleared the descending trendline to a 78,338 session high, with price now holding the 50% fib and EMA20 near 78,200. Per the digest, the post-Binance-hack bounce is short-covering led and ETF outflows persist, so the rebound has thin support.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,426 lower high breaks the post-Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 78,824 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 78,200 50% fib and EMA20 reopens the 77,864 london low; below that, the 77,572 sunday low
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC is an unscheduled downside headline risk
08:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after Asian rally faded · RSI 40 · price 78,105.98
Lower highs from 78824; 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally being tested.
BTC rallied in the Asia session from the 77572 swing low to a 78824 Asian high on short-covering hack-relief flows, then faded through a chain of lower highs, with the bounce stalling well short of $79k. The 07:45 UTC pullback low at 77864 held near the 78.6% retrace. Price now sits around 78100, on the fib 61.8 near 78050 and just under the lower high at 78210. It trades below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 78,050.00, 77,864.00, 77,572.00
Resistance: 78,210.00, 78,824.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 78210 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain.
A break of the 77864 pullback low opens the 77572 swing low, with the post-hack lows below $77k.
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Monday ETF flow data and any movement in the hacker wallets are headline risk for the range.
08:17 UTC
Short-term downtrend off the Asian high · RSI 38 · price 78,094.00
Lower highs since 78,824; Asian low swept and reclaimed into London open.
The short-covering bounce from the 77,573 Sunday low peaked at the 78,824 Asian high, and price has since printed lower highs at 78,427 and 78,215. Late Asia swept the Asian low at 77,986 to a 77,864 sweep low before reclaiming it. Price now sits near the 61.8% retrace of that move, below both EMAs early in the London session.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,215 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 78,427 swing high back in play
Failure to hold the 77,864 sweep low confirms a lower low and exposes the 77,573 Sunday low
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, followed by Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday spot ETF flows and any movement in hack-linked wallets are headline risks once the NY session opens
08:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 78,029.07
Lower highs and lower lows since the 78,824 Asian high; 78,000 swept and reclaimed.
BTC has given back most of the Asian session push to the 78,824 Asian high, printing lower highs at 78,427 (swing high) and 78,215 (lower high) into London open. The 07:45 UTC bar swept below 78,000 to a 77,864 swing low and closed back above it, leaving price near the 61.8% retrace of the 77,573–78,824 leg, below both EMAs with RSI(14) around 39, as the hack-driven relief bounce described in the digest stalls short of 79k.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,215 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence since the Asian high
Failure to hold the 77,864 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 77,573 weekend low
Recovery through the 78,427 swing high reopens the 78,824 Asian high
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, unwinding the Asia rally · RSI 27 · price 77,940.17
Lower highs and lower lows since the 78,824 Asian high.
The short-covering Asia rally from the 77,572 swing low stalled at 78,824, short of $79K. Price has since faded in a chain of lower highs and is about 70% retraced into London open. It is back near Sunday's prior pivot lows around 77,890, with RSI(14) near 27.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 78,215 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs trendline; the 78,090 broken low is the first overhead test
Failure to hold the 77,890 prior pivot exposes the 77,770 break base of the Asia rally, then the 77,572 swing low
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
On-chain movement from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC would override the intraday structure
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asia peak · RSI 39 · price 78,016.08
Lower highs and lower lows since 78,824; price at the 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally.
The Asia session short-squeeze rally from the 77,572 sunday low stalled at 78,824 around 03:45 UTC, short of the $79K area. Since then price has printed lower highs back to 78,016, just under the 61.8% fib. Early London is pressing the 77,986 swing low, with RSI(14) near 39 and no oversold reading yet.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 77,986 swing low exposes the 78.6% fib at 77,840 and then the 77,572 sunday low
Recovery through the lower highs at 78,215 and 78,426 breaks the descending sequence off the 78,824 asia high
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, followed by Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Any movement from the hack wallets or new BTCPay/tBTC loss figures could override the macro print
07:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 31 · price 78,125.96
LH/LL chain off the 78824 Asia high, retracing the Sunday-night rally.
The short-covering rally from 77573 topped at the 78824 asia high mid-Asia session. Since then price has printed lower highs and lower lows into the 78090 session low, sitting between the 50% and fib 61.8 of the move. The 07:00 UTC bar was capped exactly at the 78215 broken low, a retest from below, with RSI(14) near 31 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 78,090.00, 78,050.00, 77,986.00
Resistance: 78,215.00, 78,426.00, 78,824.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 78215 broken low and then the 78426 lower high breaks the LH/LL sequence
Failure to hold the 78090 session low exposes the fib 61.8 at 78050 and the 77986 swing low
London open within the hour could set the session range
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since session high · RSI 36 · price 78,156.93
Lower highs and lower lows below a descending trendline, retracing the overnight rally.
The Asia session rally from the 77,573 rally base was rejected at a 78,824 session high, inside the $78.8K–$79K resistance band, as the short-covering bounce faded. Price has since printed lower highs under a descending trendline. It has slipped below the fib 50% at 78,198 and sits on EMA50, testing the 78,094 swing low ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 36.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,094 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward 78,000 and the 77,986 asian low
A move back above the fib 50% at 78,198, then a break of the 78,372 lower high, invalidates the descending trendline read
Loss of the 77,986 asian low exposes the 77,573 rally base
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6 / 77) could materially shift this read; the 78,824 session high marks the rejection point
06:47 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, momentum soft · RSI 36 · price 78,131.96
Lower highs and lower lows off 78,824, retracing the Asia rally.
The short-covering Asia rally from the 77,572 swing low topped at the 78,824 asia high, just under the flagged 78.8K–79K resistance. Since then lower highs at 78,672 and 78,426 have pulled price below the 50% retrace of the Asia rally toward the 78,000 round number, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
A break below the 78,000 round number, the recovery line flagged in the digest, exposes the 77,572 swing low
An M15 close above the 78,426 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the asia high
London open in about an hour may set the session range off the current low
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15, could materially shift this read during NY hours
Lower high at 78427, lower low below 78215 after Asia high rejection.
The Asia rally from the 77,573 sunday low stalled at the 78,824 asia high, rejected at the 78.8K–79K resistance band the digest describes as a short-squeeze-led test. Price has since printed a lower high at 78,427 and slipped through the 78,215 broken low. It now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, ahead of the London open.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 78,050 and the 77,986 swing low exposes the 78,000 line the recovery narrative depends on
A loss of 78,000 leaves the 77,573 sunday low as the next intraday reference
Reclaiming the 78,215 broken low and closing above the 78,427 lower high negates the lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Uptrend paused, pulling back from session high · RSI 44 · price 78,260.81
Lower highs and lower lows since the 78,824 rejection, holding above the 50% retracement.
The short-squeeze rally off the 77,572 Sunday low ran into the 78,800 resistance zone flagged in the digest, setting a 78,824 Asia session high before rejection. The pullback found a swing low at 78,214 near the 50% retracement, and the 78,425 bounce has so far printed a lower high, with price slipping back toward 78,260 into the London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,214 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 78,000 round number and 61.8% retracement
Close above the 78,425 lower high breaks the pullback trendline and reopens the 78,824 session high
Acceptance above the 78,824 session high clears the digest's 78,800 resistance; a second rejection there would mark a double-top risk
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read
Any outbound movement from the Binance hacker wallets is a headline risk to the 77,572 Sunday low structure
06:07 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 47 · price 78,328.74
Lower high at 78,426 after rejection at 78,824; holding above 50% retrace.
The Asia session extended the post-hack short squeeze from the 77,573 late-Sunday low to an asia high of 78,824, where price was rejected at the $78,800 resistance. Since then it has printed a lower high at 78,426 and is sitting near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) at 47. The 78,215 pullback low, just above the 50% level, is holding into the London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,426 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 78,824 asia high
Failure to hold the 78,215 pullback low exposes the 77,986 swing low near the 61.8% retrace
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Any outbound movement from the Binance hacker wallets is headline risk to the intraday structure
05:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 47 · price 78,367.70
Higher lows from 77573 intact; corrective dip after session-high rejection.
The short-covering rally from Sunday's 77573 low ran into the $78,800 resistance zone flagged in the digest and was rejected at the 78824 session high during Asia. The pullback held the 78215 pullback low, a retest of Sunday's 78207 high near the 50% fib, keeping the rising lows intact. Price sits below the ema20 with RSI(14) near 47 late in the Asia session.
Support: 78,214.86, 77,986.12
Resistance: 78,582.46, 78,824.19
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78215 pullback low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 77986 asian low
Close above the 78582 prior high reopens the 78824 session high and the $78,800 zone
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fresh hack or exploit headlines are the main tail risk to the rising lows
05:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Sunday low, now pulling back · RSI 49 · price 78,333.73
Higher-high run capped at 78,824; Asia pullback broke the 78,300 higher low.
The short-squeeze rally off the 77,573 Sunday low ran into the 78,824 session high, just under the $78.8K resistance, and was rejected early in the Asia session. The pullback has taken out the 78,300 higher low and is holding near the 38.2% retrace, with the 78,215 pullback low beneath. RSI(14) is flat at 49 and price sits below EMA20 but above EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,215 pullback low opens the 61.8% fib near 78,050 and the 77,986 swing low
Reclaim of the 78,580 prior high puts the 78,824 session high back in play
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain broken; pullback testing 50% fib of the Asia rally.
Asia session ran from a sweep of the 77,572 sunday low to a 78,824 session high on a short-squeeze bounce, with rejection just above the 78,800 cap. The pullback has broken the 78,300 higher low and is holding the 78,215 pullback low near the 50% fib, with price below EMA20 and RSI(14) at 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 78,200 (50% fib / pullback low) exposes the 77,986 swing low near the 61.8% retracement
Reclaim of the 78,475 prior high restores the higher-low sequence toward the session high
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC, with Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Asia uptrend, pulling back from high · RSI 45 · price 78,367.70
HH/HL chain from 77,572; testing last higher low.
A short-squeeze rally off the late-Sunday 77,572 low built an Asia-session HH/HL chain into the 78,824 session high, where the $78.8K resistance flagged in the market digest capped price. The pullback has slipped under EMA20 to the 38.2% fib, just above the 78,298 higher low, with RSI(14) cooling to about 45 ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 78,298 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 77,986 swing low (61.8% fib zone).
Reclaiming the 78,582 prior high puts the 78,824 session high back in focus. A break there opens the $80K line.
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read.
Fresh exchange-security headlines can quickly unwind the squeeze toward the 77,600 lows.
HH/HL chain off Sunday low, rejection at session high.
The short squeeze off the 77,573 Sunday low ran through the Asian session in a higher-low chain, but stalled with a rejection at the 78,824 session high, the 78.8K resistance flagged after the Binance-hack bounce. RSI(14) has eased to about 59 with price holding just above the 78,527 higher low late in the Asian session, and the 38.2% retrace of the squeeze leg sits near 78,346.
What it said to watch
Close below the 78,527 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 78,298 swing low
Acceptance above the 78,824 session high clears the 78.8K cap, with the 79,000 round number next
Loss of the 77,986 asian low, near the 61.8% of the squeeze leg, would unwind most of the overnight move
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read; fresh exchange-security headlines are a separate risk
04:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 78.8K · RSI 66 · price 78,657.38
Higher highs and higher lows off the 77,572 low; wick rejection at the session high.
Asia session extended the rebound off the 77,572 low into a higher-high, higher-low chain as Binance phased withdrawals eased hack-driven selling. The 78,824 session high printed a wick rejection at the flagged $78.8K resistance. Price holds above rising support and the 78,527 swing low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,824 session high clears the $78.8K lid and opens the 79,000 round number
Break of the 78,527 swing low and rising support shifts the read to a pullback toward the 78,298 higher low
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh exchange-security headlines are the idiosyncratic downside trigger
Higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia, rejection at 78.8K.
The late-Sunday rebound from 77,573 carried into a clean higher-high chain through the Asia session as Binance withdrawals resumed. The 03:45 UTC bar was rejected at the 78,824 session high, right at the flagged 78.8K weekly lid, and price now sits on the Asian rising support near 78,560 with RSI(14) around 66. The 78,465 pivot low and the 78,300 swing low sit beneath, with the 38.2% fib of the rebound near 78,346.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,465 pivot low breaks the Asian rising support and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 78,300 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone and the 77,986 Asian low
Close above the 78,824 session high opens the 79,000 round number
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fresh exchange-security headlines are the main idiosyncratic downside trigger
Higher highs and higher lows off the 77,570 double low; Sunday high broken.
Late Sunday's double bottom near 77,570 launched a rally through the 78,207 Sunday high. The Asia session has added a higher high and higher low chain (77,986 swing low, 78,298 higher low) up to a 78,716 session high, as Binance's phased withdrawal reopening steadied sentiment. Price is consolidating just under the session high with RSI(14) at 66, not stretched, and first resistance at 78,800 sits overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 78,800 first resistance clears the cap flagged after the hack sell-off
Failure to hold the 78,298 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 61.8% retrace near the 77,986 swing low in view
Return below the 78,207 Sunday high turns the breakout into a false break
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 77,572; breaking above the early-Asia range top.
From the 77,572 swing low late Sunday, the Asia session has built higher lows and is now pushing through the 78,582 range top, with a fresh session high at 78,716. RSI(14) is near 67, firm but not stretched. The digest's 78.8k resistance is the next overhead marker as BTC steadies after the Binance hack shock.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 78,582 range top would turn the breakout into a false break and return price to the 78,300–78,580 range
Loss of the 78,299 swing low (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes Sunday's prior high at 78,207
78.8k res: area to watch for rejection or break; a clean break above the 78,716 session high puts it in play
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
A late-Sunday rally off the 77,572 low broke the weekend range and its prior high at 78,207, and the swing low at 77,986 then held as a higher low. The Asia session is compressing in a 78,300–78,580 box under the session high, with RSI(14) near 59 and price above both EMAs, as the digest notes BTC firming on Binance reopening withdrawals.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,582 session high opens the 78,800 first res flagged in the digest
Loss of the 78,299 box low puts the 78,207 prior high and 38.2% fib in play as a retest
Break of the 77,986 swing low and the rising trendline voids the higher-low sequence
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 77,573; tight range 78,300–78,580 in Asia.
Twin Sunday lows near 77,600 gave way to a late-Sunday breakout through the 78,207 prior high, with a 77,986 swing low and a 78,582 session high into the Asian session as hack-related fears eased on Binance's phased withdrawal reopening. Early Asia is compressing between the 78,299 range low and the session high, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around $180.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78,299 range low opens a retest of the 78,207 prior high, near the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 77,986 swing low breaks the HL chain and the rising trendline
Close above the 78,582 session high brings the first res at 78,800 into play
ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows off the 77,573 swing low; Sunday high at 78,207 broken.
Asia session extended the late-Sunday rally off the 77,573 swing low. Price broke through the 78,207 Sunday high and set a 78,582 session high, with higher lows at 77,986 and 78,299 holding along a rising lows trendline. RSI(14) sits near 64, not stretched, as easing Binance hack fears keep the bounce intact.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 78,299 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the 78,207 Sunday high in play
A break of the rising lows trendline near 78,270 brings the rally fib 38.2% at about 78,200 into view; below that, the 77,986 swing low
An M15 close above the 78,582 session high exposes first resistance at 78,800
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 77,573; weekend range top broken, pullback in progress.
Asia session broke the weekend range top at the 78,207 prior high and tagged a 78,582 session high, with buyers stepping in at the 77,986 swing low on the way up. Price has eased to 78,340 and sits on the rising trendline from the 77,573 Sunday low, with RSI(14) cooled from the mid-60s. The bounce from the Binance-hack flush is holding, while ETF outflows keep the 78.8k cap in focus.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 78,207 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 77,986 swing low breaks the higher-low chain back toward the 77,573 Sunday low
Close above the 78,582 session high opens the 78.8k cap
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
02:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 64 · price 78,375.69
Higher lows at 77,573 and 77,986; broke above the weekend range top.
Thin weekend trade carried into early Asia session with a breakout above the 78,207 prior high, extending to a 78,582 session high on the Binance-withdrawal recovery tone before a pullback to 78,375. Higher lows at the 77,573 weekend low and the 77,986 swing low frame the advance. The 38.2% fib retrace (~78,197) sits on the prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 78,207 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 77,986 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising lows line
Clearance of the 78,582 session high exposes the 78.8k cap flagged as first resistance
ISM Manufacturing PMI Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
The late-Sunday rally off the 77,573 swing low cleared Sunday's 78,206 prior high, and early Asia session trade has extended it to a 78,582 session high. The 00:30 UTC dip held a 77,986 higher low. The bounce fits the modest bid after Binance's smooth withdrawal reopening, with RSI(14) near 72: stretched, not extreme.
What it said to watch
A close above the 78,582 session high opens the path to the 79,000 round number
Failure to hold the 78,206 prior high puts the 77,986 higher low back in focus
A break of the higher-low line toward the 77,573 swing low negates the rally structure
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend, fresh highs in early Asia · RSI 66 · price 78,419.64
HH/HL chain off the 77572 Sunday low; Sunday high broken.
Late-Sunday rally off the 77572 Sunday low cleared the 78206 Sunday high into the Asia session. The 77986 higher low held, supply capped the first push at the 78474 prior high, and a fresh session high printed at 78582. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is roughly $190 per bar, with the smooth Binance withdrawal reopening lending a modest bid.
Support: 78,206.00, 77,986.00, 77,572.00
Resistance: 78,474.00, 78,582.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 78206 Sunday high puts the breakout in question
Failure to hold the 77986 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the higher-low line
Repeated rejection across 78474 prior high to 78582 session high would mark a capping zone; a close above 78582 extends the rally
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst that could materially shift this read
Higher low at 77,986 after breakout above 78,206 prior high.
BTC bounced from the late-Sunday swing low at 77,573 and broke the 78,206 prior high into the Asia open. The first push to the 78,474 session high was rejected, but the pullback low at 77,986 held as a higher low and price is back testing the high, with RSI(14) near 64 and a defensive crypto tone on ETF outflows.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78,474 session high extends the breakout; a second rejection there leaves a double-test cap in place
Loss of the 78,206 prior high puts the 77,986 pullback low and the higher-low line in focus
Break below 77,986 returns price to the 77,570–78,200 range above the swing low
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Rebounding, capped after late spike · RSI 56 · price 78,084.01
Sweep of 77598 low, V-rally to 78475, now mid-retracement.
BTC dipped through the 77598 low to a 77573 swing low late Sunday, then rallied to a 78475 session high that drew a sharp rejection. Price is holding above the 77986 pullback low near 78080 in the early Asia session, with the 78207 prior high from Sunday's post-Binance-reopening spike as the nearer cap. The digest frames rallies as capped by ETF outflows and hack-related supply overhangs.
Support: 77,986.12, 77,917.00, 77,572.57
Resistance: 78,206.87, 78,474.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78207 prior high reopens the 78475 session high
Failure to hold the 77986 pullback low exposes the fib 61.8 at 77917
A break back under the 77573 swing low negates the rebound structure
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom breakout, rejected at 78474 and back below prior high.
A late-Sunday double bottom at 77572–77598 led to a breakout from the 77770 breakout base through the 78207 prior high. The move was rejected at the 78474 session high into the Asia open, and price is now back near 78092, with the fib 50% at 78006 just below. BTC is holding around 78K after Binance's withdrawal reopening passed without disorder.
Support: 78,006.00, 77,770.00, 77,572.00
Resistance: 78,207.00, 78,474.00
What it said to watch
Close back above the 78207 prior high reopens a test of the 78474 session high
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 78006 exposes the 77770 breakout base
Break below the 77572 swing low negates the double bottom
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Intraday push higher, stalled at spike high · RSI 60 · price 78,170.91
Late-Sunday break of the 78,207 prior high rejected back below it at the Asia open.
A late-Sunday leg from the 77,573 Sunday low cleared the 78,207 prior high and spiked to 78,475 into the Monday Asia open. The 00:00 UTC bar then rejected back to the 78,106 reject low, a potential false break that leaves price capped by the old high, consistent with the digest's fragile relief tone after Binance reopened withdrawals while ETF outflows persist.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 78,207 prior high reinstates the breakout and puts the 78,475 spike high back in play
Loss of the 78,106 reject low exposes the 78,027 pullback low near the 50% fib of the late-Sunday leg
Failure to hold above the 77,573 Sunday low fully retraces the late-Sunday leg
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst; thin Asia session liquidity until then