22:09 UTC
Downtrend, basing above hack low · RSI 36 · price 77,787.33
Lower-high/lower-low chain since early October, now in a tight post-breakdown range.
BTC has printed lower highs since the early-October failure near 86,900–87,060. The 84,797 swing high on Oct 18 and the 81,893 lower high on Oct 27 framed the move before the Oct 29 Binance hack drove the breakdown to the 76,227 hack low. Since then price has held in a narrow 76,300–78,800 band, below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the Nov 2 retest of the hack low holding and RSI parked in the mid-30s rather than oversold.
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 79,000 psych level and the descending trendline near 79,700 (38.2% fib zone) would break the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the 76,227 hack low extends the lower-low chain toward the 75,000 round number
- A recovery through the 81,893 lower high would neutralise the October downtrend read; the 84,797 swing high caps above
- US midterm results overnight, then ADP and ISM Services on Wed, could materially shift this read
- On-chain movement of the stolen BTC could reopen the hack low