22:07 UTC
Downtrend, fresh swing low · RSI 35 · price 76,543.70
Lower highs and lower lows since the September peak; Sep–Oct range broke lower on Oct 29.
BTC has carved a seven-week sequence of lower highs from the 87,273 September peak, with price below a falling EMA(50) and the prior high at 84,797 now well out of reach. The Oct 29 Binance hack produced a range break through the 79,170–79,740 floor that had held through October. The three-day rebound stalled at the 78,824 recent high, and today printed a new swing low at 75,671. That keeps the weekly cadence of failed recoveries intact.
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 78,824 recent high and the cited 79,000 cap would interrupt the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the 75,671 swing low exposes the 75,000 round number
- 38.2% retrace of the Sept peak decline sits near 80,100, just below the 81,893 lower high; both mark where the downtrend read would be tested
- Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read after the ADP and JOLTS beats
- Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC is a direct supply shock risk to the swing low