22:08 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact · RSI 39 · price 76,091.20
LH/LL sequence from the Sep 21 peak; October range broken lower on Oct 29.
BTC has carved seven weeks of lower highs and lower lows since the 87,270 Sep 21 peak. The Oct 29 Binance hack broke the 79,200–84,800 October range and pushed price below 77k, where it held a tight post-hack range capped by the 78,820 range top. Wednesday's squeeze to 81,100 printed another lower high below the 50% retrace and into the falling trendline, and Thursday reversed it entirely, setting a fresh swing low at 75,500 with RSI near 39 and price below both daily EMAs.
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 78,820 range top would undercut the post-hack breakdown read
- Close above the 81,100 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the LH/LL chain, with the 84,800 Oct 20 high as the next pivot
- Daily close below the 75,500 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 75,000 round number
- Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) follows firm ADP, JOLTS and claims prints and could materially shift this read
- Movement from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC is a supply-side risk to any stabilisation