BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after late false break · RSI 50 · price 75,962.34
Lower highs from 76,935; late break of 75,650 range floor reclaimed.
The US-session sell-off took BTC from 80,300 to 75,499 as firm labour data lifted the dollar, and price then held a 75,650–76,450 range with lower highs. The late break of the range floor to the 75,111 swing low was reclaimed within two bars. After the NY close, price is pressing the lower-highs trendline near 76,000, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the rebound high to swing low leg, with RSI(14) at 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,287 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and opens the 76,935 rebound high
Failure to hold the 75,650 range floor puts the 75,111 swing low back in play; a close below it extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Post-breakdown range 75.5k–76.4k under lower highs; late sweep of the range low reclaimed.
BTC dropped out of the 80.2–80.8k Asia/London range during the London-NY transition and slid to the 75,499 ny low early in NY. The digest gives no fresh BTC news, but the backdrop is fragile post-hack de-risking and firm US labour data ahead of NFP. Since then price has chopped between 75.6k and 76.4k under a line of lower highs. A late sweep to the 75,111 session low was bought back above 75.5k, leaving price just under the 76,000 round number with RSI(14) near 44.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 75,499 ny low turns the 75,111 sweep into a lower-low extension
Clearance of the 76,000 round number and the 76,446 range high breaks the lower highs line; the 76,935 bounce high sits above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows after range break · RSI 29 · price 75,321.05
Lower highs since 76,446; post-crash range broken lower.
Asia and London held an 80,140–80,810 range before NY hours dumped BTC to a 75,499 low, as firm US labour data and a firmer USD fed the pressure. The post-crash 75,500–76,450 range then failed after the NY close. A chain of lower highs from the 76,446 range top gave way to a 75,111 session low, with RSI(14) near 29.
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold back above the 75,499 prior low would mark the range break as a false break
Loss of the 75,111 session low exposes the 75,000 round number
M15 close above the 75,742 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a 75.5k–76.4k post-crash range, now testing the floor.
The break below the 80.15k London floor turned into a flush at the NY open, taking BTC from 79.4k to 75.5k in five bars amid a weak Nasdaq tone. Since then the market has consolidated between 75.5k and 76.4k, with lower highs at the 76,935 rebound high and the 76,446 lower high. Price is back at the 75,479 session low into the early Asia session, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
A close below the 75,479 session low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 75,000 round number in play
A close above the 76,016 late high and the lower-high trendline would break the descending sequence; the 76,446 lower high and 76,935 rebound high sit above
Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Any movement from the hacker wallets holding 18,270 BTC is a supply-shock risk to the range floor
Lower highs pressing a flat 75,650 floor after the NY breakdown.
The overnight 80,150–80,800 range broke at 12:00 UTC, and the selloff accelerated through the NY open as USD firmed on the strong claims and productivity prints, bottoming at the 75,499 swing low. Since then price has held a 75,650–76,450 box. The bounce high at 76,935 and the range top at 76,446 are followed by successively lower highs along a falling trendline near 76,060, compressing into the range floor. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR(14) is roughly $290 per bar, with price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,650 range floor exposes the 75,499 swing low
Close above the trendline near 76,060 and then the 76,446 range top breaks the lower-high compression
Retracement still hasn't held the 23.6% of the selloff (~76,670); the bounce high at 76,935 caps it
Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could reset this range
BTC broke the overnight 80,150–80,830 range during the London-NY transition and dropped through NY hours to a 75,499 session low, alongside a firmer USD on strong US claims and productivity data. The bounce high at 76,935 retraced only about 0.3 of the selloff, and price has since compressed into post-NY trade with lower highs at 76,446 (swing high) and 76,290 (lower high) against a range floor near 75,650. RSI(14) is around 44.
What it said to watch
Close below the 75,650 range floor exposes the 75,499 session low
Close above the 76,290 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and the compression read
Recovery through the 76,935 bounce high would put the 0.382 selloff fib near 77,345 in play
Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Tight post-drop range 75650–76450, lower highs pressing range floor.
BTC broke down from the 80,200–80,800 Asian/London range during NY hours, sliding about 4,800 to a 75,498.85 ny low as firm US labour data and a weak equity tone weighed. The bounce stalled at 76,935 (bounce high), a shallow retrace of the crash leg fib, and price has since compressed in a 75,650–76,450 band. Highs are stepping lower from 76,445 (lower high) while three tests of the 75,650 range floor have held into the Asia session; RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and price sits below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,650 range floor exposes the 75,498.85 ny low
Close above the 76,445 lower high breaks the descending-highs line and reopens the 76,935 bounce high
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Post-selloff range 75,630–76,450 printing lower highs, price at range low.
The London-NY transition broke the 80,150 floor that held through Asia and London. NY hours then flushed price to the 75,499 swing low. Since the 76,935 bounce high, price has held a 75,630–76,450 range with lower highs (76,446, then 76,287) and is pressing the range low late in NY, RSI(14) near 28. The digest cites no BTC-specific catalyst, only firm US labour data ahead of Friday's NFP.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,630 range low exposes the 75,499 swing low and the 75,000 round number
M15 close above the 76,287 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; 76,935 bounce high sits above
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:48 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after crash · RSI 40 · price 75,831.49
Lower highs above a flat 75.6k base.
The 80,140–80,830 Asian range held through London. NY then broke it lower in a cascade to the 75,499 crash low as firm US labour data (claims 189K) lifted USD. Since then price has compressed above the 75,630 range floor under a falling trendline of lower highs from the 76,935 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 75,630 range floor exposes the 75,499 crash low
M15 close above the 76,287 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 76,446 swing high next
A recovery to the 76,935 bounce high would sit just above the 23.6% crash fib (~76,760)
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could reset this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 75,869.45
Post-selloff range 75500–76950 with lower highs.
BTC broke the overnight 80150–80830 range during NY hours and fell about 5,300 dollars to a 75,499 session low. The move came as firm US labour data and hawkish Fed talk lifted the dollar. Since then it has been compressing late in NY, with a 76,935 bounce high and a 76,445 lower high capping it, while the intraday low near 75,780 has held three times.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,780 intraday low exposes the 75,499 session low
Close above the 76,445 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 76,935 bounce high is next
Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after sell-off · RSI 47 · price 76,068.23
Post-breakdown range 75,630–76,450 under lower highs.
The 80,030–80,830 Asian/London range gave way near 12:00 UTC, and the slide accelerated after NY open to a 75,499 crash low by 15:45 UTC as USD firmed on the 189K claims beat. Since then price has held a 75,630–76,450 range low/range top band under a lower high versus the 76,935 bounce high, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,630 range low puts the 75,499 crash low back in play
Close above the 76,450 range top tests the 76,935 bounce high and the lower-highs line
Bounce high at 76,935 sits near the 23.6% drop fib at 76,640; acceptance above it would weaken the downtrend read
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) and Williams at 09:30 UTC could break this range
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after capitulation · RSI 34 · price 76,070.23
Post-selloff range 75,628–76,446, lower highs vs higher lows.
BTC broke below the 80,030–80,830 Asia/London range from 12:00 UTC and capitulated in the first hours of NY as USD firmed on the 189K claims print, putting in the NY low at 75,499. Since then it has compressed between the 75,628 swing low and the 76,446 range high. Lower highs off the 76,935 bounce high are converging with higher lows. RSI(14) is near 34 and price is below both EMAs late in the NY session.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,446 range high and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 76,935 bounce high
Failure to hold the 75,628 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 75,499 NY low
Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Any movement from the hacker wallets holding stolen BTC is a supply-shock risk to the range
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 31 · price 75,915.40
Pennant after impulsive NY breakdown; lower highs, higher lows.
NY session broke the Asian/London range (80,150–80,830) and the NY drop ran about 4,800 to a 75,500 session low. The slide followed firm US claims and productivity data, with no fresh BTC headline. Price has since compressed into a pennant, with a lower high at 76,450 under the 76,935 bounce high and a higher-low chain from the 75,630 swing low, capped below the fib 23.6 at 76,670; RSI(14) sits near 31.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,450 lower high and pennant top shifts focus to the fib 23.6 at 76,670 and the 76,935 bounce high
Break of the pennant base and the 75,630 swing low puts the 75,500 session low back in play
Fed Williams Fri 09:30 UTC and NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 33 · price 75,939.37
Lower highs inside 75,500–76,950 post-drop box.
NY session broke the 80,000–80,800 Asian/London range and flushed about 4,800 to a 75,499 NY low. There was no BTC-specific catalyst; the only driver on the tape was firm US labour data. Since then price has based in a 75,500–76,950 box, printing lower highs at the 76,935 bounce high and the 76,446 lower high, with RSI(14) at 33 and price below EMA20/50 and under the 23.6% of the NY selloff fib.
What it said to watch
A close above the 76,446 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 76,935 bounce high sits above.
Failure to hold the 75,628 base low exposes the 75,499 NY low; a break there extends the lower-low chain.
Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read.
Movement from the stolen-BTC wallets is an unscheduled supply risk to the base.
20:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 36 · price 76,211.07
Post-selloff base 75,500–76,950 with higher lows under a capped late high.
BTC broke out of the 80,000–80,830 overnight range and flushed to a 75,499 NY low in the first hour of US cash trading. The digest carries no fresh BTC headline to explain the drop, and firm US labor data tilts macro risk hawkish. Late in the NY session price is basing, with a higher low at 75,896 above the 75,628 swing low, but sellers are capping it at the 76,446 late high; RSI(14) is near 36 and price sits below EMA20.
What it said to watch
Close above the 76,446 late high and 76,935 bounce high extends the recovery toward the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib near 77,350
Loss of the 75,896 higher low and 75,628 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 75,499 NY low
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) are the next scheduled catalysts; a hot print adds USD pressure
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing after capitulation · RSI 37 · price 76,337.93
Lower-high/lower-low drop from 80,340, now a tight 75,750–76,360 base.
Asia and London held an 80,000–80,830 range before a NY-hours liquidation drove price to a 75,499 session low, below the $77–78k zone cited in post-hack news, with no fresh BTC-specific catalyst in the digest. Late NY trade is pressing the 76,360 range top of a narrow base, with a higher low at 75,628 and price still under the 76,620 EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 76,360 range top opens the 76,935 bounce high and the 23.6% drop fib near 76,640
Loss of the 75,750 base floor and the higher low line puts the 75,499 session low back in play
Fed Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower highs compressing above the 75499 session low.
Price lost the Asian range low near 80144 during the London-NY transition. The NY open then extended it into a roughly 4,950-point flush to a 75499 session low, alongside the firmer US claims print and hawkish Fedspeak that lifted USD; the digest carries no BTC-specific headline. Late in the NY session price is compressing between the 75628 swing low and the 76307 lower high, under a descending trendline from the 76935 bounce high, which stalled between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the flush fib; RSI(14) is near 29.
Support: 75,627.71, 75,498.85
Resistance: 76,306.96, 76,935.27
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 75628 swing low, then the 75499 session low, extends the post-flush downtrend
An M15 close above the 76307 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the consolidation, with the 76935 bounce high next
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
19:18 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 31 · price 76,156.13
Post-drop consolidation 75,628–76,190 beneath the 76,935 bounce high.
NY session broke below the Asian range low near 80,144 after the 13:30 UTC US claims and productivity data. The drop ran about 4,800 points to a 75,499 session low, and the recovery stalled at the 76,935 bounce high, just under the 23.6% of the sell-off fib. Late in NY, price is compressing in a 75,628–76,190 range and pressing the range top. RSI(14) sits near 31 and price is below the ema20 (~76,710).
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,190 range top breaks the consolidation, with the ema20 near 76,710 and the 76,935 bounce high stacked above
Loss of the 75,628 range low reopens the 75,499 session low and would extend the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Overnight range broken lower; tight base under lower highs.
BTC broke the overnight 80,140–80,830 range around 12:00 UTC. The NY sell-off ran through the first hour of NY cash to a 75,499 session low, taking out the 77,000 round number (the former post-hack low) as USD firmed on the claims and productivity beats. Since then price is pinned in a 75,630–76,180 consolidation below the 76,935 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 26 and well short of a washed-out extreme.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,184 range cap opens the 76,935 bounce high and the 38.2% NY sell-off fib near 77,140
Failure to hold the 75,628 swing low exposes the 75,499 session low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 77,000 round number would turn the former post-hack low back into support and weaken the downtrend read
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) after firm claims/ADP, with Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
18:48 UTC
Downtrend, stalling after flush · RSI 28 · price 76,110.18
Lower highs off 76,935 bounce high; higher low at 75,628, compressing under 76,185.
BTC slipped out of the 80,140–80,815 Asian range just after midday UTC. It then dropped ~4,800 from the first hour of NY cash trade to a 75,499 flush low, while firm US claims and productivity data kept USD bid. Late NY session is now a tight consolidation under the 76,184 minor high and the 76,935 bounce high, with a higher low at 75,628, RSI(14) ~28 and price below EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,628 higher low reopens the 75,499 flush low
Acceptance above the 76,184 minor high and then the 76,935 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 38.2 of the flush sits at ~77,350
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY selloff · RSI 28 · price 76,119.17
Post-selloff consolidation 75,500–76,935 under lower highs.
The 80,140–80,815 Asian range broke during the London-NY transition. NY turned that break into a ~$5k selloff to the 75,499 NY low as USD firmed on 189K claims and hawkish Fed talk, putting price below the $77k post-hack area. Since then, late NY has held a higher low at 75,628 while RSI(14) recovered from sub-15 to ~28, a bullish divergence on closes, but the descending trendline from the 76,935 bounce high still caps price, with the 77,599 spike high above it.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,935 bounce high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 75,628 higher low and a break of the 75,499 ny low resumes the selloff and voids the divergence
Fed's Williams Fri 09:30 UTC and US NFP/AHE Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
38.2% retrace of the selloff near 77,390 sits just under the 77,599 spike high, an area to watch for rejection or break
18:18 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY liquidation · RSI 25 · price 76,014.29
Lower highs off 76,935; tight band above the 75,499 session low.
BTC broke out of the 79,900–80,800 overnight range at 12:30 UTC. Selling accelerated into the NY open as the USD rebounded on 189K claims and hawkish Fed talk, and price set a 75,499 session low. The 76,935 bounce high stalled short of the 38.2% fib of the drop, and price has since coiled between 75,600 and 76,160 on lower highs. RSI(14) sits near 25 and ATR has stretched to about 430 USD.
What it said to watch
A close above the 76,158 lower high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 76,935 bounce high and 38.2% fib (~77,140) above.
A break of the 75,628 swing low exposes the 75,499 session low and the 75,000 round number.
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could reset this read. The digest flags a hot AHE print as the bigger downside risk.
18:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY liquidation leg · RSI 23 · price 75,796.53
Range break lower, lower highs below 76,935.
BTC broke lower out of the 80,050–80,830 range that held through Asia and London. The move accelerated during NY hours as the USD firmed on 189K claims and hawkish Fed talk, cutting through the $78k–$77k post-hack zone to a 75,499 session low. The rebound stalled at the 76,935 rebound high, and a run of lower highs has pressed price back onto the 75,750 shelf with RSI(14) near 23.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75,750 shelf exposes the 75,499 session low.
A close above the lower-highs line near the 76,072 minor high eases the immediate downtrend read; the 76,935 rebound high sits above.
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC Fri) and NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) are the next macro catalysts that could materially shift this read.
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after a sharp liquidation leg · RSI 22 · price 75,863.45
80,000 range broken; lower high at 76,935, testing a higher low near 75,755.
The overnight 80,000–80,830 range held through Asia and London, then broke at 12:30 UTC. Selling accelerated after the NY open into a 75,499 session low, a crash leg of about 5%. There was no BTC-specific headline; USD was firming on today's claims beat. The bounce stalled at the 76,935 bounce high, below the 77,000 post-hack area, and price is back near the 75,755 higher low with RSI(14) oversold at 22.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,499 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 75,000 round number
Reclaim of the 76,935 bounce high would shift the read to a base below the 77,000 post-hack zone
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP/AHE (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read
17:33 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded into lower high · RSI 23 · price 75,956.35
Asian range broke lower, then NY-hours capitulation; lower high at 76,935 under a descending line.
The Asian range of 80,144–80,814 held through London. A range break came at 12:30 UTC, and selling accelerated during NY hours as the 189K claims print firmed the USD. That move took BTC through the $77k post-hack area to a 75,499 session low. The bounce stalled at the 76,935 bounce high, a lower high beneath the lower-highs line, and price after London close is drifting back toward the session low with RSI(14) near 23 and ATR expanded to roughly 460 points.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75,499 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 75,000 round number.
An M15 close above the 76,935 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the fib 38.2% near 77,350.
The 79,459 shelf low, the 13:00–13:45 UTC base before the collapse, caps any deeper retracement.
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP/AHE (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read.
17:17 UTC
Downtrend after sharp NY sell-off · RSI 22 · price 76,004.30
Overnight range broken lower; lower high at 76,935 after 75,499 session low.
BTC slipped out of the overnight 80,000–80,830 range during the London-NY transition, then cascaded roughly 4,800 USD in the first hours of NY to a 75,499 session low as the USD firmed on today's jobless-claims beat. The bounce to 76,935 stalled below the 38.2% retracement of the drop, and price is back at the 76,000 psych with RSI(14) near 22.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 76,000 psych exposes the 75,499 session low
An M15 close above the 76,935 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 78,000 round number next above
A move through the 38.2% of the drop near 77,350 would shift the read from stalled bounce to deeper retracement
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Overnight range broken lower, lower highs since NY open.
BTC held an 80,140–80,830 range through Asia and London, then broke below it in the NY session and slid roughly 4,800 to a 75,499 session low as USD firmed on the 189K jobless claims print. The relief bounce was rejected at 76,935, short of the 38.2% fib of the sell-off, and price is drifting back toward the 76,000 round number after London close with RSI(14) at 26.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,935 bounce high opens the 38.2% fib near 77,350
Loss of the 76,000 round number exposes the 75,499 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Oversold RSI(14) near 26 leaves room for two-way swings, with ATR around 560 USD per bar
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
Range break into lower lows; bounce high capped at 76,935.
BTC broke out of the 79,900–80,800 range from 12:30 UTC, with firm US labour data as the backdrop, and the slide accelerated after the NY open. Price flushed to a 75,499 session low and fell back below the $77k post-hack low. The rebound stalled at a 76,935 bounce high, between the 23.6% and 38.2% cascade fib, with RSI(14) near 23 and the 76,154 higher low holding so far.
What it said to watch
A close above the 76,935 bounce high opens a retrace toward the 38.2% cascade fib near 77,140
Reclaiming the 77,599 lower high and the $77k area would negate the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 76,154 higher low exposes the 75,499 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, lower highs from the NY sell-off.
BTC held a tight 80,150–80,830 range through Asia and London. During NY hours it broke lower in a roughly 4,800-dollar leg to a 75,499 session low, slicing through the sub-$77k post-hack low as firm US labour data (claims 189K) lifted the USD. Price is now bouncing back above the 23.6% breakdown fib near 76,640, with RSI(14) recovering from deep oversold to about 27, but it remains under the 76,935 bounce high and the EMA20 near 78,040.
What it said to watch
A close above the 76,935 bounce high puts the 38.2% breakdown fib at 77,350 and the 77,598 swing high in play
Failure to hold the 76,100 swing low reopens the 75,499 session low
Rallies capped below the EMA20 near 78,040 keep the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
80,000–80,830 range broken in NY hours, lower-low cascade to 75,499, first higher low forming.
BTC held an 80,000–80,830 range through Asia and London. NY hours broke it from 12:00 UTC, and the move accelerated from the 14:30 UTC equity open into a 75,499 session low. That took out the sub-77k post-hack low flagged in the news as firm US claims data underpinned the USD. RSI(14) bottomed near 7 and has lifted to ~16 on a bounce to 76,350, with the 76,630 bounce high the first cap overhead.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 76,100 swing low reopens the 75,499 session low
A close above the 76,630 bounce high opens the path to the 77,000 psych level, near the 38.2% breakdown fib at 77,140
Rejection below the 77,600 spike high (50% breakdown fib) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
The London close in the next bar thins liquidity, and Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
BTC broke below the 79,890 range low of the overnight 79,890–80,830 range. It then cascaded about 4,300 during NY hours to a 75,499 session low, below the sub-77k post-hack low, as firm US claims data lifted the USD. RSI(14) near 11 is at an extreme, and price is pausing below the 76,630 bounce high inside a sequence of lower highs.
What it said to watch
A close above the 76,630 bounce high would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence; the 77,600 lower high and the 38.2% fib sit just above
Failure to hold the 75,499 session low exposes the 75,000 round number
The 79,890 range low is now overhead; reclaiming it would void the range-break read
ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 470 points, so swings stay wide while volatility stays elevated
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
24h range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since the NY open.
The 24h 79,890–80,830 range gave way during the London-NY transition. The slide then accelerated through the NY open, a drop of about 4,250 USD to a 76,083 session low, with no BTC-specific headline and firm US claims/productivity plus a recovering USD as the backdrop. RSI(14) near 7 is extreme and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 455 USD. The lone bounce stalled at the 77,600 spike high, just under the 38.2% sell-off fib (~77,710), and the 76,630 lower high caps the latest bars.
What it said to watch
A break below the 76,000 psych 76k level extends the lower-low chain, with no prior structure below in this window
An M15 close above the 76,630 lower high would be the first break of the descending sequence; the 77,600 spike high and 38.2% sell-off fib sit above
A fresh low with RSI(14) holding above its single-digit reading would mark bullish divergence and slowing downside momentum
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, then lower highs into a 76,100 session low.
BTC held a 79,886–80,830 range for about 20 hours and broke its range low in late London. It paused on a 79,460–79,800 shelf through the firm US claims and productivity data, then cascaded into the NY open to a 76,100 session low, with the firmer-USD read from the data adding weight. RSI(14) near 12 is deeply oversold; the 77,600 rebound high is the first cap, just below the 38.2% retracement of the breakdown fib near 77,720.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 77,600 rebound high and the 38.2% breakdown fib (~77,720) would break the falling highs trendline and mark first repair
Failure to hold the 76,100 session low exposes psych 76k and extends the lower-low sequence
Only a reclaim of the 79,458 shelf low reopens a test of the old range low at 79,886
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Overnight range broken lower, impulsive lower highs and lower lows.
BTC held a roughly 80,150–80,830 range through Asia and most of London, then broke lower in late London. Firm US labor data was the backdrop. After a brief pause at the 79,460 shelf low, the slide accelerated into the first hour of NY, a ~3,570-point leg to a 76,766 session low. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold. Price is hovering just above the 77,000 round number, with the 77,936 break pivot and the fib 38.2% near 78,131 overhead.
What it said to watch
A break below the 76,766 session low extends the impulse to a fresh lower-low
Reclaiming the 77,936 break pivot and the fib 38.2% at 78,131 would mark a deeper retracement of the leg
The 79,460 shelf low is the upper boundary of the recovery read; a return there would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the 77,000 round number puts the session low back in play
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) are the next scheduled catalysts
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive NY session leg · RSI 17 · price 78,104.98
Overnight range broken lower; lower highs into a 77,936 session low.
BTC broke below the 80,000 psych floor of the overnight 80,140–80,830 range at 12:30 UTC. After the firm 13:30 UTC claims print it lost the 79,460 shelf low and slid to a 77,936 session low, with RSI(14) near 17, deeply oversold. Mid-NY session, price is holding just above 78,000 with the 78,800 breakdown bar overhead.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 77,936 session low exposes the 77k area flagged in post-hack coverage
M15 close back above the 78,800 breakdown level would stall the impulsive leg, and 79,460 shelf low sits near the 61.8% of the drop fib
A break of the lower highs trendline and a reclaim of 80,000 psych would negate the range break
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 22 · price 78,808.21
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:00 UTC break of the day-long range.
The day-long 79,890–80,830 range broke at 12:00 UTC, before the firm 13:30 UTC US claims print. The first hour of NY then extended the slide through the 79,000 round number to a 78,734 session low, with RSI(14) near 22. Lower highs at 79,803 and 79,532 cap the break leg, and the 79,265 prior low now sits overhead.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 79,000 round number would show the break stalling
A move through the 78,734 session low exposes the 78k area cited in post-hack coverage
Reclaiming the 79,265 prior low and the lower-high trendline near 79,530 would break the descending sequence
The 50% retracement of the break leg, near 79,540, coincides with the lower-high trendline
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and NFP (13:30 UTC) on Friday are the next macro shocks for this read
14:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows into NY · RSI 31 · price 79,469.48
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain since London-NY transition.
Price slipped through the Asian low at 80,143 and the prior low at 79,886 from 12:00 UTC. The slide extended into the first hour of NY after the firm 189K jobless claims print, with a lower high at 79,803 and a new session low at 79,265. RSI(14) sits near 31, not yet extreme, with price below both EMAs on 15-minute ATR around $205.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 79,803 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the falling trendline under test
Failure to hold the 79,265 session low exposes the 79,000 round number
Reclaim of the 79,886 prior low and the 80,143 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and NFP (13:30 UTC Fri, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows after break of overnight range.
BTC slipped out of the 80,150–80,800 overnight range late in London, broke the 80,143 Asian low and lost 80,000 heading into the NY open. The bounce after the firm 189K claims print stalled at a 79,803 lower high, the descending trendline from 80,454, before a fresh session low at 79,284. RSI(14) near 28, price below both EMAs and sitting just above the 79,000 round number, which the digest flags as the reference area.
What it said to watch
Close back above the 79,803 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 79,284 session low exposes the 79,000 round number
Reclaim of the 80,143 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Fed's Williams (Fri 09:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
BTC broke the overnight 80,140–80,830 range between 12:00 and 12:45 UTC, slicing through the prior low at 79,886 to a session low at 79,458 under a series of lower highs from the London high at 80,454. Price is bouncing into the London-NY transition after jobless claims and is now nearing the 38.2–50% drop retrace at 79,840–79,956, which lines up with the prior low and 80,000 round number. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about $183.
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read.
An M15 close back above the 80,000 round number would put the range break in doubt and reopen the London high at 80,454.
Rejection at the 79,886 prior low or the drop retrace keeps the lower-highs structure intact.
Failure to hold the 79,458 session low confirms a lower low and exposes 79,000 psych.
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the next major macro risk for this structure.
13:31 UTC
Short-term downtrend after range break, momentum stalling · RSI 28 · price 79,581.36
Broke below the 80,150–80,800 range, now holding just above the 79,458 session low.
BTC held an 80,150–80,800 range from Nov 4's afternoon spike through Asia and most of London. It broke lower between 12:00 and 12:30 UTC as USD firmed in Europe, slicing through the London low at 80,157, the 80,000 round number and the prior low at 79,886 to print a session low at 79,458. Price has since compressed above that low with RSI(14) near 28, heading into the 13:30 UTC jobless claims.
What it said to watch
13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labour costs, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the prior low at 79,886, near the 50% retracement of the breakdown leg, would undercut the range-break read; the 80,000 round number and the 80,157 London low sit above
A break below the 79,458 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 79,036 rally base from Nov 4
Lower highs through London, Asian range broken lower at 12:00 UTC.
Lower highs through London gave way to a 12:00 UTC break of the Asian range low (80,144), the 80,000 handle and the 79,886 prior low, as the dollar firmed in Europe on Fed hike pricing. The slide stalled at the 79,458 session low on two straight bars, and RSI(14) is near 33, off the lows but not stretched, ahead of US data.
What it said to watch
Jobless claims and unit labour costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 79,886 prior low and the London selloff fib 38.2% (~79,934) would mark a false break of the range low
Failure to hold the 79,458 session low exposes the 79,000 round number
The London highs trendline and the 80,340 lower high cap the rebound; a close above both negates the lower-high sequence
London lower highs gave way to a range break below the Asian and overnight lows.
Between 12:00 and 12:45 UTC, BTC broke out of the Asian range low at 80144 and the overnight prior low at 79886. It printed a session low at 79458, close to the 50% retrace of the Nov 4 rally near 79620, after London had capped a sequence of lower highs. The drop came ahead of US claims, and RSI(14) at about 33 is stretched but not oversold.
Support: 79,458.49, 79,035.96
Resistance: 79,886.02, 80,143.74
What it said to watch
Jobless claims and unit labour costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
A break below the 79458 session low exposes the rally base near 79036 and the $79K area
A recovery back above the 79886 prior low would mark the move as a false break, with the 80144 Asian low the next cap
A close above the London highs trendline would end the lower-high sequence
12:47 UTC
Downtrend from London open, sharp extension lower · RSI 33 · price 79,724.20
Overnight range floor broken; lower highs since London open.
Late-London selling broke the overnight 79,886–80,830 range floor and the 80,000 psych handle, tagging a 79,579 session low near the 50% retracement of yesterday's NY rally (78,140 to 81,104). The slide followed a chain of lower highs from 80,703 to 80,454 as USD firmed on the data focus ahead of today's jobless claims. RSI(14) sits near 33, not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 79,886 prior low and 80,000 psych would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 79,579 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at ~79,270 and the 79,036 swing low
A close above the 80,454 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain
13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend inside a broader range · RSI 38 · price 80,125.76
Lower highs through London; Asian low lost, session low at 80,064.
London has carved a lower-high chain off the 80,703 London high, and price has now slipped through the Asian low at 80,144 to a session low of 80,064. RSI(14) sits near 37 and price is below both EMAs. The broader 80,000–80,800 range from yesterday's NY spike to 81,104 still sits above the 79,886 swing low, close to the 38.2% retrace of that rally.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 80,144 Asian low marks a false break of the range floor
A break through the falling trendline and 80,340 lower high ends the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 80,000 psych handle and session low exposes the 79,886 swing low / 38.2% retrace
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
12:04 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 80,242.63
79,886–80,831 range; London lower highs, lows easing.
Wednesday's NY spike to 81,104, which came alongside the softer services PMIs, has since settled into a 79,886 swing low to 80,831 range top band. London has carried lower highs down from the 80,703 London high to 80,454, with the London low easing to 80,157. Price sits in the lower half of the range below both EMAs, and RSI(14) at about 42 reads neutral rather than stretched.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,157 London low opens the 79,886 swing low, near the 38.2% of the spike fib
A close back above the 80,454 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline; 80,703 London high is next
Range top at 80,831 caps the post-spike consolidation
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Range after NY impulse, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 80,307.56
Lower highs pressing a flat 80150 floor.
Yesterday's NY impulse from 78,250 to the 81,104 impulse high has since held a 79,886–80,831 range, with the 38.2% fib defending the 79,886 low. London has printed a chain of lower highs below the 80,814 Asian high, most recently the 80,454 lower high, and is now compressing into the 80,144 Asian low with RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,144 asian low breaks the London floor and exposes the 79,886 38.2% fib
Close above the lower-highs line and 80,454 lower high ends the compression and reopens the 80,814 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read into NY
BTC is still inside the 79,886–80,831 range built after yesterday's NY-open spike to 81,104. London has printed a lower-high chain from 80,703 and is pressing the Asian low at 80,144, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs. With no fresh crypto headlines, US data remains the driver. The range floor sits on the 38.2% spike retrace near 79,905.
What it said to watch
A close below the 80,144 Asian low opens the 79,886 range floor and the 38.2% spike retrace.
A close above the 80,454 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 80,569 London high into play.
Range top at 80,831 caps the read; acceptance above it ends the range.
Jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Hammack at 13:50 UTC land into the NY open and could shift this read.
Lower highs inside the 79,886–80,831 range; London trading within the Asian range.
BTC has held between the range floor at 79,886 and the range top at 80,831 since yesterday's NY-open spike to 81,103. Highs have stepped lower all night, and London has stayed under its 80,569 high, with price pressing the 80,144 Asian low. RSI(14) is near 46 and price sits below both EMAs, while firm US data (ADP beat) keeps the tape two-way.
What it said to watch
A close below the 80,144 asian low opens the 79,886 range floor, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of the 77,966–81,103 leg
A close above the 80,454 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 80,569 london high back into view
13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 could materially shift this read into the NY session
Asian range 80144–80814 intact; London lower highs pressing range floor.
Since yesterday's NY-session spike to 81104, price has held a range between the 79886 swing low, which sits at the fib 38.2 retracement, and the Asian high at 80814. London has printed a descending chain of lower highs from 80703 to 80454 and is now pressing the London low at 80166, just above the Asian low at 80144, with RSI(14) near 45. With no BTC-specific news in the last day, US data is the live driver.
Support: 80,165.72, 80,143.74, 79,886.02
Resistance: 80,454.40, 80,569.27, 80,814.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80144 Asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the fib 38.2 swing low at 79886
Close above the 80454 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the London high at 80569 is the next cap
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, land in the first hour of NY and could resolve the range
Friday's NFP (f/c 65K) is the larger event risk for the 80144–80814 range
Mid-London, BTC sits in the lower half of the 80144–80814 Asian range. A chain of lower highs runs 80814 → 80569 session high → 80454 and is compressing into the London low at 80193, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs. Yesterday's NY-hours spike from 77966 to 81104 came alongside the post-midterm USD sell-off, and its 38.2% retrace lines up with the 79886 swing low.
Support: 80,192.69, 80,143.74, 79,886.02
Resistance: 80,454.40, 80,569.27, 80,814.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80193 london low exposes the 80144 asian low, then the 79886 swing low at the spike's 38.2% retrace
Close above the lower-highs trendline and 80454 lower high breaks the descending sequence, with 80569 session high next
US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 80,317.55
Post-spike range 79,886–80,831 with lower highs since 80,831.
Since yesterday's NY-session spike to 81,104, which came alongside the soft PMI prints and a weaker USD, BTC has held a 79,886–80,831 band with the swing low near the 38.2% fib. London has stayed inside the Asian range (80,144–80,814), and a run of lower highs from 80,703 is pressing toward the 80,190 london low. RSI(14) sits near 40, below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 80,190 london low and the 80,144 asian low extends the lower-highs sequence toward the 79,886 swing low and 38.2% fib
A close above the 80,386 minor high and the 80,569 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 80,831 range top above
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read
10:05 UTC
Sideways after Nov 4 rally, lower highs forming · RSI 48 · price 80,378.48
Range 80144–80814 since Asia, London compressing inside it.
The Nov 4 rally from 77966 to 81104 came during the NY open and soft ISM Services print, with USD at monthly lows. Since then BTC has held a range, with the Asian low at 80144 and Asian high at 80814. Mid-London, price is pinned at 80378 inside a tighter 80193–80569 band (london low to london high), under a line of lower highs and flat EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 80,193.00, 80,144.00, 79,886.00
Resistance: 80,569.00, 80,814.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower highs line and the 80569 london high reopens 80814 asian high
Failure to hold 80193 london low and 80144 asian low exposes the 79886 swing low, near the 38.2% of the Nov 4 rally
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could break the session range
09:47 UTC
Sideways after breakout, London drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 80,258.61
Lower highs inside Asian range, pressing range floor.
Yesterday's NY-session spike after the ISM Services miss took price from 78.1k to 81,104. Since then it has held a 79,886–80,830 range, with the swing low sitting just above the 38.2% breakout fib. London has printed lower highs from the 80,703 London high to 80,569 and is now pressing the London low at 80,193 and the Asian low at 80,144, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,144 Asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 79,886 swing low and 38.2% breakout fib
Close back above the 80,569 lower high negates the London lower-high sequence; the London high and Asian high at 80,703–80,814 cap above
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could expand the range during NY hours
09:32 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 80,204.67
Range 79,886–80,831 with London lower highs.
BTC has held a 79,886–80,831 range since Wednesday's NY-session spike to 81,104, which came as US ISM Services missed. London is printing lower highs under the 80,569 london high and is pressing toward the 80,144 asian low, with RSI(14) near 40. Below that, the 79,886 swing low sits beside the 38.2% fib of the NY rally at 79,905.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 80,144 asian low opens the 79,886 swing low and 38.2% fib zone.
A move back above the 80,569 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 80,831 range top back in play.
US jobless claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could jolt the range.
79,886–80,831 range; lower highs since Asia, lows holding 80,140–80,290.
BTC has ranged between the 79,886 range low and the 80,831 range top since yesterday's NY-session spike to 81,104, which came as soft ISM Services and PMI prints and a weak USD hit. Highs have stepped lower through Asia and into London, from 80,814 to the 80,703 swing high and the 80,569 London high, and price is now back on the 80,213 London low. RSI(14) sits near 43, below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
A break of the 80,213 London low and the 80,144 Asian low exposes the 79,886 range low, near the 38.2% fib of the spike
An M15 close above the 80,569 London high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the drift lower and puts the 80,831 range top back in play
US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
09:04 UTC
Sideways after impulse, compressing · RSI 50 · price 80,415.44
Range 80144–80831 after NY spike, lower highs.
Price has been range-bound between the 80144 asian low and the 80831 range top since Wednesday's NY-session spike to the 81104 spike high, a move that came as US services PMIs missed and the USD stayed heavy. London has so far traded inside the Asian range, between the 80213 london low and the 80703 london high. Lower highs are compressing price, and RSI(14) is flat near 50.
Support: 80,212.66, 80,143.74, 79,886.02
Resistance: 80,703.12, 80,830.98, 81,103.68
What it said to watch
A break of the 80144 asian low exposes the 79886 swing low, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the 77966–81104 spike
A close above the lower highs line and the 80831 range top reopens the 81104 spike high
US jobless claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could break the range during NY hours
08:47 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, highs stepping lower · RSI 51 · price 80,431.42
Overnight range 80,143–80,814 with lower highs and flat lows.
Wednesday's NY-hours rally from 77,966 to the 81,104 spike high (extended as ISM Services missed) has given way to a range. Early London trades 80,431, mid-way inside the 80,143–80,814 Asian range. Highs have stepped lower from the late-NY 80,831 top while lows hold 80,140–80,290; the london high at 80,569 is capping so far, with RSI(14) ~51 and price pinned to flat EMAs.
What it said to watch
Close below the 80,143 asian low breaks the overnight range; the pre-London low at 80,212 is the first test
Below 80,143, the 79,886 swing low sits at the 38.2% of the ny rally fib
Close above the lower highs line and the 80,814 asian high reopens the 81,104 spike high; 80,569 london high is the first hurdle
US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs and Productivity at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Compression inside the Asian range: lower highs against a flat 80,140–80,290 floor.
BTC has held between 80,144 and 80,814 since yesterday's NY-session spike from 77,966 to the 81,104 spike high, which came amid broad USD weakness and the soft ISM Services print. The overnight pullback held 79,886, at the 38.2% fib of the spike. Asia printed a run of lower highs into the 80,703 lower high, while the 80,213 higher low held the asian low. The first hour of London is trading mid-range with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 80,703 lower high breaks the Asia lower highs trendline and puts the 80,814 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 80,213 higher low and the 80,144 asian low exposes the 79,886 swing at the fib 38.2
The post-spike rally only resumes on a clearance of the 81,104 spike high
US jobless claims and unit labor costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows compressing below the 81,104 spike high.
Since Wednesday's NY-session spike through $79k to the 81,104 spike high, a move the digest ties to USD weakness and lower yields, BTC has held an 80,144–80,814 Asian range. Lower highs and higher lows are tightening into a pennant, with the 07:45 swing low at 80,213 holding into London open. Price sits mid-range at 80,440, flat on the EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR(14) about $140.
What it said to watch
Break of the 80,703 lower high and the 80,814 Asian high clears the pennant top and puts the 81,104 spike high back in view
Loss of the 80,144 Asian low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 38.2% fib of the spike near 79,905
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, fall in the NY session and could resolve the compression
Post-spike range 79,886–80,831; Asia lower highs, lows holding above 80,144.
BTC cleared the ~$79k cap cited in the digest at yesterday's NY open, spiking from 78,249 to the 81,104 spike high. It has since held a 79,886–80,831 range, above the 38.2% NY spike fib near 80,013. Asia printed lower highs off the 80,831 Asian high, and London opens near 80,300 just above the 80,213 swing low, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,144 Asian low exposes the 79,886 range floor and the 38.2% NY spike fib near 80,013
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 80,703 lower high reopens the 80,831 Asian high, with the 81,104 spike high above
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tight range 80144–80814 through Asia, lower highs into London open.
Yesterday's NY-session breakout from 78250 ran to a spike high at 81104 around the mixed US data (ISM Services miss), lifting price well above the 79k cap cited in the stale news digest. Since then price has held a 80144–80814 Asian range with a lower high at 80703. It now sits on the recent low near 80285 at the London open, between the 23.6% (80430) and 38.2% (80013) retracements of the breakout leg.
Support: 80,285.00, 80,144.00, 79,886.00
Resistance: 80,703.00, 80,814.00, 81,104.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 80144 asian low breaks the Asian range and puts the 79886 swing low and the 38.2% breakout-leg fib near 80013 in play
Close above the 80703 lower high and the 80814 asian high invalidates the lower-highs read and reopens the 81104 spike high
Failure to hold the 80285 recent low during London confirms a lower low inside the range
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read in the NY session
Range 79886–81104, Asia lower highs over a flat floor.
BTC has held a 79,886–81,104 range since the 14:30–15:15 UTC spike to the 81,104 spike high around the US PMI misses. The 20:00 UTC swing low at 79,886 sat on the 38.2% spike fib, and price has not revisited it. Asia printed lower highs (80,814 to 80,703, below the 80,831 range top) against an 80,285–80,300 asia floor, leaving price mid-range just under EMA20/50 into London open, with RSI near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,286 asia floor exposes the 80,144 asian low, then the 79,886 swing low and spike fib
Break of the lower highs line and the 80,703 lower high reopens the 80,831 range top, with the 81,104 spike high above
US jobless claims and ULC at 13:30 UTC, followed by Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, mild upward drift · RSI 56 · price 80,576.26
Asian range 80144–80820 holding below 81104 spike high.
BTC is consolidating Wednesday's spike to 81104. The spike began at the NY open and extended through the ISM Services and S&P PMI misses, and the pullback held near the 38.2% retracement of that leg. Late in the Asia session, price sits mid-range at 80576 with RSI(14) near 56. It has printed a higher low at 80431 after repeated tests of the 80290 asian floor, while the 80703 session hi caps the latest push.
Support: 80,431.00, 80,290.00, 80,144.00
Resistance: 80,703.00, 80,820.00, 81,104.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80820 asian high breaks the overnight range and puts the 81104 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 80431 higher low returns price to the 80290 asian floor; a break there exposes the 80144 asian low and the spike leg fib 38.2% near 79970
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a flat 80,290 floor inside the Asian range.
Yesterday's NY-session spike from 78,250 to the 81,104 spike high cleared the $79k cap cited in coverage. The pullback held at the 79,886 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and price has ranged below it since. The Asian range ran 80,144–80,815, and Asia printed a lower high sequence (80,814 → 80,614) into a flat 80,290 asia floor. Price sits mid-range at London open with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,640 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 80,815 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 80,290 asia floor exposes the 80,144 asian low, then the 79,886 swing low
Loss of 79,886 would break the 38.2% fib hold of the NY spike
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could shift this read in the NY session
Pennant: lower highs from 80,814, higher lows from 80,144.
BTC broke above 79k in a NY-session breakout leg from 78,250 to the 81,104 ny high around the soft US PMI prints, and the 79,886 swing low later held near the 38.2% fib. Asia has coiled into a pennant, with the pennant top falling from the 80,814 asian high and the pennant base rising from the 80,144 asian low. Price sits at 80,440 near EMA20 with RSI(14) at 46, late in Asia ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,522 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 80,814 asian high and 81,104 ny high back in play
Loss of the 80,290 higher low and the 80,144 asian low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 79,886 swing low at the 38.2% fib
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could break the compression
06:34 UTC
Sideways after NY breakout, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 80,481.37
Lower highs pressing a flat 80,290 base inside the Asian range.
BTC cleared the $79k cap at yesterday's NY open and ran to the 81,104 spike high as the dollar stayed heavy and ISM Services missed. The 79,886 swing low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that NY spike. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing between the 80,290 intraday low and a run of lower highs off the 80,814 Asian high, with RSI(14) flat near 48 ahead of London open.
What it said to watch
A break of the 80,290 intraday low opens the 80,144 Asian low, and below that the 79,886 swing low
A close above the lower-highs line and the 80,643 lower high would put the 80,814 Asian high back in play
Acceptance above the 81,104 spike high would extend the NY spike structure
London open is the first test of the Asian range; Challenger cuts at 10:30 UTC and jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could shift this read
BTC ran about 2,960 from 78,140 to the 81,104 spike high during NY hours yesterday as the USD sold off. Price has since held a 79,886–80,830 range, retracing only about 41% of the ny rally to the 79,886 swing low. Through the Asia session it printed lower highs from the 80,814 asian high to the 80,643 lower high and into 80,460, while the 80,286 range floor held three times. RSI(14) sits near 47 and price is pinned to EMA20 ahead of the London open.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 80,286 range floor exposes the 80,144 asian low, then the 79,886 swing low near the 38.2% ny rally retracement
M15 close above the lower highs line and the 80,643 lower high reopens the 80,814 asian high and 81,104 spike high
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read
The NY-open surge through 79,000 on USD weakness and the ISM Services miss topped at 81,104. Price has held a 79,890 ny low to 80,830 range top since. Late in the Asia session, lower highs at 80,815, 80,736 and 80,645 are pressing price onto the 80,290 session low, near the 23.6% fib, just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) ~44.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,290 session low exposes the 80,145 asian low
Loss of 80,145 opens the 79,890 ny low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rally
Close above the 80,645 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high trendline; the 80,830 range top is next
London open within the hour could set the session range
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC
Any movement from the hacker wallets is a headline risk that could break the range
Post-spike range 79,886–80,830, lower highs into late Asia.
The first hour of NY drove a spike from 78.1k through the 79k cap cited in coverage to a 81,104 spike high. Price has since ranged between the 79,886 range low and the 80,830 range top. Late in the Asia session the rejection under the range top is printing lower highs, latest 80,645. Price is sitting on the 23.6% fib near 80,404 and above the 80,285 swing low, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Close below the 80,285 swing low exposes the 80,144 asian low and the 79,886 range low near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 80,645 lower high reopens the 80,830 range top; acceptance above it brings the 81,104 spike high back into view
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read in NY session
Range 80,140–80,830 with Asia lower highs compressing toward a higher low.
BTC has held an 80,140–80,830 range since the NY-session spike to the 81,104 spike high, which came alongside a weaker USD at monthly lows. Late in the Asia session the range top has given way to a chain of lower highs at 80,814, 80,736 and 80,643, while the 80,286 higher low holds above the 80,144 Asian low. Price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 43, and the 38.2% fib of the spike near 79,970 sits just above the 79,886 swing low.
What it said to watch
Break below the 80,144 Asian low opens the 38.2% spike fib and the 79,886 swing low
Close above the 80,643 lower high breaks the descending-highs line and puts the 80,831 range top back in play; clearing that exposes the 81,104 spike high
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at 13:30 UTC, then Hammack at 13:50 UTC, could shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Higher lows and lower highs inside the 79,886–81,104 band.
BTC broke above 79k at the NY open and ran to the 81,104 spike high into the 15:00 UTC ISM Services miss. Since then it has compressed. The ny low at 79,886 held near the 38.2% of the spike fib, and higher lows at 80,144 and 80,286 sit under lower highs at 80,831, 80,814 and 80,736. In late Asia session, price sits mid-range at 80,396, inside the 80,144–80,814 Asian range, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
What it said to watch
Break below the 80,286 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 80,144 asian low
Close above the 80,736 swing high and 80,814 asian high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Loss of the 79,886 ny low unwinds most of the NY open breakout
London open is the next session test of the Asian range
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, higher lows forming · RSI 59 · price 80,626.21
79,886–80,831 range below 81,104 spike high; higher lows through Asia.
BTC has held a 79,886 swing low to 80,831 swing high range since the 81,104 spike high printed during NY hours on the ISM Services miss. The 79,886 low sits near the 38.2% of the NY spike fib. Late in the Asia session price is above the EMA20 and EMA50, with a rising higher-lows trendline through 80,144 (asian low) and 80,286 (higher low), RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,831 swing high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Break of the 80,286 higher low and the trendline puts the 80,144 asian low in play, then the 79,886 swing low near the 38.2% of the NY spike fib
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the read; NFP Friday is the larger risk
04:32 UTC
Sideways after NY open impulse, compressing · RSI 47 · price 80,374.49
Pennant: lower highs from 81,104, higher lows from 79,886.
The NY open impulse ran from 78,140 to the 81,104 ny high, with the 15:00 UTC leg coinciding with the ISM Services miss and broad USD selling. Price has since compressed into a pennant, with lower highs at 80,831 and 80,736 and the 79,886 ny low holding near the 38.2% fib of that leg. Late Asia session trades at 80,374, just below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral at 47, and the 80,286 swing low is the nearest floor above the 80,144 asian low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,144 asian low breaks the pennant floor and exposes the 79,886 ny low / 38.2% fib
Close above the 80,736 lower high and 80,814 asian high breaks the pennant top, putting the 81,104 ny high back in play
London open may resolve the compression; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the read
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets is a headline shock risk to this structure
Range 80,144–80,830 under the 81,104 spike high, lows rising.
The NY open spike from 78.1k cleared 79k and peaked at the 81,104 spike high as ISM Services missed. Price has since ranged under the 80,820 range top, with the 79,886 swing low holding near the 38.2% retrace. The Asian session is holding between 80,144 and 80,814 on rising lows, and RSI(14) is neutral at 46 with price just under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
A close below the 80,144 asian low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 79,886 swing low and the 38.2% retrace
Clearing the 80,820 range top reopens the 81,104 spike high
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift the range read
Contracting range: lower highs from 80,831 against higher lows from 79,886.
BTC spiked from ~78,250 to the 81,104 NY high at the NY open amid broad post-midterm USD selling. It has since compressed between the 79,886 swing low and the 80,831 range top. Late Asia session has price at 80,414, mid-range and just under the ema20 near 80,495, with lower highs (80,831 → 80,736) pressing against a higher-lows line off 79,886 and RSI(14) neutral at 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,144 asian low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 79,886 swing low
M15 close above the 80,831 range top ends the lower-highs sequence and puts the 81,104 ny high back in play
Repeated closes back above the ema20 near 80,495 would shift the read toward the upper half of the range
US jobless claims, unit labor costs and Fed's Hammack (13:30–13:50 UTC) could materially shift this read
Pennant: lower highs vs higher lows inside the Asia session.
BTC ran from 78,250 to the 81,104 spike high between the NY open and the 15:00 UTC ISM Services miss, as USD softened. The pullback held the swing low at 79,886, near the 38.2% spike fib. Mid-Asia, price is coiling between the 80,144 Asian low and the 80,814 Asian high, with a lower high at 80,736 against a higher low at 80,433. RSI(14) is flat near 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,814 Asian high breaks the pennant's lower-highs line and puts the 81,104 spike high back in play
Loss of the 80,433 higher low, then the 80,144 Asian low, breaks the pennant to the downside
Failure at the 79,886 swing low (38.2% spike fib) would turn the post-spike consolidation into a deeper retracement
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs, plus Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could materially shift this read
Post-spike range 79,886–81,104; Asia coiling 80,144–80,814.
BTC has held a 79,886–81,104 range since the NY-open impulse and ISM Services miss lifted it off 78,140 yesterday. The 79,886 swing low held near the 38.2% retracement of that impulse. Mid-Asia, price is coiling under the 80,830 range top with a higher-low chain at 79,886, 80,144 (Asia low) and 80,433; RSI(14) neutral near 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,830 range top opens a retest of the Nov 4 high at 81,104
Loss of the 80,144 Asia low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 79,886 swing low
US Initial Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs Thu 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could reset the session range
Any outbound movement from the hacker wallets is a headline risk outside the chart structure
Range 79886–80830 after NY-open spike; higher lows.
The US data window broke the 78.1k–78.6k range, running from 78248 to an 81104 spike high on the ISM Services miss and broad USD selling. Since then price has held a 79886–80830 range. The swing low sits near the 38.2% retrace and the Asian low at 80144 is a higher low on the rising trendline. Mid-Asia session, RSI(14) at 54 and price pinned to EMA20: no setup in play beneath the range top.
Support: 80,434.00, 80,144.00, 79,886.00
Resistance: 80,830.00, 81,104.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80830 range top exposes the 81104 spike high
Loss of the 80434 micro low puts the 80144 Asian low and rising trendline in play
Break below the 79886 swing low invalidates the higher-low read and opens a deeper retrace
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims/ULC and Fed's Hammack could shift USD tone and this range
Sideways range 79,886–80,831 below the NY spike high, Asian range inside it.
Price broke out of the London range at the NY open, rallying from 78,140 to a spike high at 81,104 as USD sold off and ISM Services missed. Since then it has held a 79,886–80,831 range, with the range low near the 38.2% retracement of the NY spike. Mid-Asia, price sits mid-range inside an 80,144–80,814 Asian range with RSI(14) at 46 and no setup in play.
What it said to watch
A break below the 80,144 Asian low exposes the 79,886 range low and the 38.2% fib zone
An M15 close above the 80,831 Asian high puts the 81,104 spike high back in focus
Losing 79,886 would turn the consolidation read into a deeper retracement of the NY spike
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fed's Hammack at 13:50, could break the range
02:47 UTC
Sideways after NY breakout, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 80,539.30
Post-breakout range 79,886–81,104; Asia coiling mid-range.
The NY-open breakout leg ran from 78,140 to the 81,104 spike high on broad USD selling after the midterm sweep and the ISM Services miss. Price has since held a range between the 79,886 swing low and the 80,830 range high. The Asia session is coiling between the 80,144 Asian low and 80,814 with RSI(14) near 53, and no fresh structure is in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,830 range high opens a retest of the 81,104 spike high
Loss of the 80,144 Asian low exposes the 79,886 swing low near the 38.2% of the NY breakout leg
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims/ULC and Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift this read later in the day
Range 79,886–80,830 after NY-open breakout, rising lows inside.
BTC broke out of the 78,250 base in the first hour of NY yesterday as USD sold off after the Democratic midterm sweep, printing the NY high at 81,104. It has since held a 79,886–80,830 range above the 38.2% retrace of that NY breakout. Early Asia is retesting the range top with rising lows underneath, and the asian low sits at 80,144; RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,830 range top reopens the 81,104 NY high
Failure to hold the 80,144 asian low and the rising lows exposes the 79,886 range low and the 38.2% retrace
US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs and Fed's Hammack at 13:30–13:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 79,886–80,831 after NY-open breakout to 81,104.
BTC has held an 11-hour range between the 79,886 range low and the 80,831 range top since the NY-open breakout through 79,000 to the 81,104 swing high. The breakout came alongside Wednesday's ISM services miss, and the pullback stalled near the 38.2% level of the breakout fib. The Asia session is printing higher lows off the 80,144 Asia low and pressing the range top again, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
Close above the 80,831 range top reopens the 81,104 swing high
Loss of the 80,144 Asia low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 79,886 range low and 38.2% breakout fib back in focus
A second failure near 80,814–80,831 would leave a capped range top within the session
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, plus any hacker-wallet movement, could materially shift this read
79,886–81,104 range after the NY-open breakout; higher lows under equal highs.
NY open broke the 78.1k–78.5k base and the $79k cap, and the leg extended on the ISM Services miss to a spike high at 81,104. Since then price has ranged 79,886–81,104. The range low held near the 38.2% retrace, and higher lows into early Asia are pressing against equal highs at 80,814–80,831.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,830 equal highs opens a retest of the 81,104 spike high
Failure to hold the 80,144 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 79,886 range low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 could materially shift this read; hacker-wallet movement is unscheduled headline risk
Lower highs from 81,104 against rising lows from 79,886; Asia testing session high.
BTC broke out of the 78,100–78,500 range at the NY open and extended to the 81,104 day high around the ISM Services/PMI misses and a heavy USD. The pullback held at the 79,886 swing low, close to the 38.2% of the breakout leg. Lower highs and rising lows now frame a tightening range, with early Asia pressing the 80,733 Asia high and RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,831 late NY high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 81,104 day high back in play
Loss of the 80,144 Asia low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 79,886 swing low, then the 79,477 breakout area
US jobless claims and unit labor costs Thu 13:30 UTC, ahead of Friday NFP, could materially shift this read
BTC broke out of the 78,000–78,650 London range at the NY open, spiking to an 81,104 session high and clearing the $79k cap from coverage despite mixed US data. Since then it has consolidated between the 79,886 swing low (near fib 38.2%) and the 80,831 swing high, printing lower highs. Early Asia session is dipping toward the 80,144 asia low, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,144 asia low exposes the 79,886 swing low and fib 38.2% near 79,970
Close above the 80,731 lower high and 80,831 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 81,104 session high
Loss of 79,886 swing low puts the fib 50% near 79,620 and the breakout base in play
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fri NFP, could materially shift this read
79,886–80,831 range after the NY spike, lower high forming in Asia.
BTC cleared the 78.1–78.5k band at the NY open and ran to the 81,104 spike high as ISM Services and S&P Composite PMI missed. It has since held a 79,886–80,831 range above the 38.2% level of the NY spike fib. Early Asia session has printed a lower high at 80,731, and price is now testing the 80,285 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,285 swing low exposes the 79,886 range low and the 38.2% of the NY spike fib
Close back above the 80,731 lower high and the 80,831 swing high reopens the 81,104 spike high
US jobless claims and unit labor costs Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Up after NY breakout, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 80,427.43
Higher lows from 79886 inside a 79886–81104 post-spike range.
The NY session breakout from 78250 to the 81104 spike high came as the ISM Services and PMI misses added to a heavy post-midterm USD. Price has since consolidated above the 38.2% fib, with higher lows off the 79886 swing low. Early Asia is holding 80285–80731; the latest bar rejected at the session high, and RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 80,284.58, 79,886.02
Resistance: 80,731.09, 80,830.98, 81,103.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80285 session low breaks the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 79886 swing low opens a deeper fib retracement of the NY spike
Close above the 80831 swing high exposes the 81104 spike high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs could reprice USD later in the day
The NY-open surge from 78,250 to the 81,104 spike high, with USD heavy after the midterm sweep, has retraced only to the 38.2% fib at the 79,886 range low. Early Asia session is pressing the 80,831 late high on a chain of higher lows from 80,032 (80,285 swing low, 80,380 higher low), RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,831 late high breaks the compression; the 81,104 spike high is the next reference
Loss of the 80,380 higher low and the 80,285 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Break of the 79,886 range low exposes the 50% NY surge fib near 79,535
US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
79,886–81,104 range after NY spike; lower high, higher low converging.
BTC broke out of the 78,140–78,480 range early in the NY session and spiked to 81,104 as USD stayed heavy after the ISM Services and PMI misses. It has since held a 79,886–81,104 range, with the range low near the 38.2% fib. Early Asia trades 80,657, between a lower high at 80,831 and a higher swing low at 80,284, RSI(14) near 60.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,831 lower high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Loss of the 80,284 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 79,886 range low
Break of the range low and the 38.2% fib (~79,970) exposes the 79,477 breakout area
Any movement in the 19 hacker wallets is a direct headline shock to this structure
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fri NFP, could materially shift this read
Post-breakout range 79,886–81,104 with rising lows.
A NY-session breakout from the 78,150–78,500 base ran to the 81,104 spike high alongside the US PMI misses and a softer USD. The 79,886 range low held near the 38.2% retrace of that move. In early Asia, price is coiling between the 80,285 swing low and the 80,831 lower high, with RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 80,285 swing low breaks the rising lows line
Close above the 80,831 lower high reopens the 81,104 spike high
Loss of the 79,886 range low / 38.2% fib exposes a deeper retrace of the breakout
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs could materially shift this read
Any movement in the hacker wallets is a headline risk to the range
79,886–81,104 consolidation above the 79k breakout; lower highs vs a higher low.
BTC broke out of the 78.1–78.7k London range in the first hour of NY and spiked to the 81,104 NY spike high as the dollar stayed heavy after the midterm sweep. It has since held a 79,886–81,104 consolidation above the 79k breakout. The swing high at 80,831 and the 80,636 high mark lower highs, while the 80,285 higher low is intact as the Asia session opens. RSI(14) is mid-range near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 80,831 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 81,104 NY spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 80,285 higher low exposes the 79,886 swing low; a break there brings the 79k breakout level into focus
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims / unit labor costs and Fed's Hammack at 13:50 UTC could shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP