BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 6 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:48 UTC
Range after NFP sweep, compressing · RSI 47 · price 75,824.50
Higher lows from 74,797 vs lower highs from 76,068.
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove a sweep below the London low to the 74,797 NFP low, reclaimed in the same bar. Late NY has since compressed between rising lows and lower highs, with price sitting just above EMA20/50 near 75,760 and RSI(14) flat around 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,940 lower high and the 76,068 post-NFP high breaks the compression, with the 76,282 pre-NFP high above
Failure at the 75,610 swing low and the 75,436 higher low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 74,797 NFP low
Thin late-NY and weekend liquidity after the USD-positive NFP/wage beats can produce outsized breaks of this narrow range
The NFP beat at 13:30 UTC sent BTC to a 74,797 NFP low below the London low, but that move was fully reclaimed. Since then the late NY session has compressed under a lower-high trendline from the 76,068 NFP high, with the 75,940 lower high capping and the 75,611 late NY low holding. Price sits just below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,940 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 76,068 NFP high
Loss of the 75,611 late NY low exposes the 75,436 higher low, which is also the 38.2% retracement zone of the NFP rebound
Acceptance back above 76,068 puts the 76,314 Asian high in play
Thin liquidity after the NY close and into the weekend can produce outsized wicks relative to the current range
Post-NFP rising lows against lower highs, compressing around 75,780.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC to a 74,797 nfp low, a sweep below the Asian range that was bought back within the bar. Since then, late NY session trade has carried rising lows at 75,436 and 75,611 under lower highs from the 76,068 post-nfp hi to 75,940, and bar ranges are shrinking.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,940 lower highs line opens the 76,068 post-nfp hi, then the 76,282 london high
Loss of the 75,611 rising lows exposes the 75,436 higher low; below that the nfp low at 74,797 comes back into view
Thin late-Friday trade can produce outsized wicks relative to the shrinking bar ranges
Fed's Daly remarks and any hawkish follow-through on yields after NFP could break the compression
Higher lows since NFP sweep, capped by lower highs inside 75,436–76,068.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC from the 76,282 pre-nfp high to a 74,797 nfp low in the first 90 minutes of NY. That flush swept the overnight 75,111 low and was bought back above the 61.8% retrace at 75,714. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 75,436 range floor and 76,068 range top, with higher lows into the 75,610 late NY low and price now pressing the lower-highs line near 75,850.
What it said to watch
Close above the 76,068 range top reopens the 76,282 pre-NFP high
Hold above the lower-highs line near 75,850 turns the compression into a range break higher
Loss of the 75,610 late NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 75,436 range floor
Break of the 74,797 NFP low would resume the post-payrolls leg lower
Lower highs from 76068 and higher lows from 75436, inside the Asian range.
The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC through the 75218 London low to 74797, and price fully recovered within the hour. Since then late-NY trade has contracted between lower highs from the 76068 post-NFP high and higher lows off the 75436 swing low. Price sits just below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 48, boxed by the 75610 micro low and the 75928 swing high, well inside the Asian range that tops at 76314.
Support: 75,435.92, 75,218.16
Resistance: 75,928.38, 76,068.23, 76,313.96
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75928 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 76068 post-NFP high back in play, with the 76314 Asian high above
Loss of the 75610 micro low and then the 75436 swing low reopens the 75218 London low and the NFP spike tail
Thin weekend liquidity after the NY session; US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled macro risk
Contracting range: lower highs from 76,068, higher lows from 75,208.
The 13:30 UTC NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed BTC through the asian low to a 74,797 NFP low before a sharp rebound. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at the 76,068 post-NFP hi and 75,928, and higher lows at 75,208 and the 75,436 post-NFP HL. Late in the NY session, price sits below EMA20/50 between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the NFP drop, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
What it said to watch
A break of the 75,436 post-NFP HL and the higher-lows line reopens the asian low near 75,210, with the 74,797 NFP low below that.
An M15 close above the 75,928 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 76,068 post-NFP hi and the 76,282 pre-NFP high.
Friday-evening USD strength after the hot payrolls and wages print keeps rallies toward the NFP-drop 61.8–78.6% zone under pressure.
Post-NFP sweep low reclaimed, compressing between 75,436 and 75,928 inside the Asian range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) and hot wages drove a sweep below the Asian low to the 74,797 NFP low in early NY, which was fully reclaimed. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 75,436 swing low and a 75,928 lower high below the 76,068 NY high. RSI(14) is neutral at 47, and price sits just under EMA20 and EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,928 lower high and the 76,068 NY high breaks the compression and brings the 76,314 Asian high into view
Failure to hold the 75,436 swing low, which sits at the 50% level of the NY rebound fib, exposes the 75,210 Asian low
A return below the 74,797 NFP low would mean the sweep failed and confirm a lower-low
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekend against a USD bid after the NFP beat; ATR near 267 points is still elevated from the release
Post-NFP range 74797–76068; lower highs vs higher lows into the late NY session.
The 165K NFP beat knocked BTC from the 76282 london high to a 74797 nfp low, a false break below the 75218 asian low that was reclaimed within the bar. Since then the late NY session has compressed between the 76068 rebound high, a 75928 lower high and a 75436 swing low, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 75,436.00, 75,218.00, 74,797.00
Resistance: 75,928.00, 76,068.00, 76,282.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76068 rebound high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 76282 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 75436 swing low opens a retest of the 75218 asian low and the 74797 nfp low
Reaction to Daly's post-NFP remarks and thin weekend liquidity could resolve the compression either way
Higher lows inside a 75,200–76,070 post-NFP range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC through the Asian low to the 74,796 NFP low, but the break failed. Price has retraced back to the 61.8% level of the NFP drop near 75,715. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between a 75,436 higher low and the 76,068 post-NFP high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and both EMAs flat just below price.
What it said to watch
A close below the 75,436 higher low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the 75,208 swing low
A close above the 76,068 post-NFP high exposes the 76,282 London high, the top of the NFP drop
Losing the 74,796 NFP low would turn the false break into a fresh lower low
Fed's Daly remarks (18:00 UTC): further hawkish pushback after NFP could pressure the higher lows structure
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove BTC through the Asian low to 74,797 during NY hours. Price reclaimed the level quickly, the rebound stalled at the 76,068 post-NFP high, and the 50% retrace held at the 75,436 swing low. Late in the NY session, price is pinned near EMA50 inside the day's range with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,436 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the Asian low at 75,218
M15 close above the 76,068 post-NFP high reopens the Asian high at 76,314
Trade back below the 74,797 NFP low invalidates the false break read
Fed's Daly remarks (18:00 UTC) on easing after the 165K NFP could shift this read
NFP sweep below Asia low reclaimed; higher lows capped under 76,068.
The hot NFP and wage beat knocked BTC from the 76,282 London high to a 74,797 NFP low, a sweep below the 75,218 Asia low that was reclaimed within the bar. Late in the NY session, price has retraced about 62% of the drop and is chopping between the 75,436 swing low and the 76,068 post-NFP high. It is holding higher lows off the NFP low, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
What it said to watch
A close below the 75,436 swing low breaks the post-NFP higher lows and reopens the 75,218 Asia low
A close above the 76,068 post-NFP high puts the 76,282 London high back in play
Fed's Daly remarks from 18:00 UTC, after the hot NFP and wage beat, could shift this read
Loss of the 74,797 NFP low would invalidate the sweep-and-reclaim read
18:05 UTC
Range-bound below EMA20/50 after NFP drop · RSI 48 · price 75,615.73
Post-NFP range 75,210–76,070 with lower highs under the Asian high.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC from 75,990 down through the London low at 75,210 and swept the prior-day low to the 74,797 NFP low before price snapped back. The NY afternoon has since chopped between the London low and the 76,068 post-NFP high, with lower highs forming under the 76,314 Asian high. RSI(14) is flat near 48, and price sits around the 38.2% retrace of the post-NFP bounce, just above the 75,436 swing low.
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could break the 75,210–76,070 post-NFP range
An M15 close above the 76,068 post-NFP high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 76,314 Asian high
Failure to hold the 75,436 swing low and 75,210 london low exposes a retest of the 74,797 nfp low
The hot NFP print triggered a NY-session sweep through the London low to the 74,797 nfp low. The post-NFP rebound stalled at the 76,068 rebound high, a lower high under the Asia high. Price is back near 75,600 below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) flat at 49, compressing between lower highs and rising post-NFP lows.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 75,458 intraday low exposes the 75,215 london low and the 74,797 nfp low
M15 close above the 76,068 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 76,314 asia high next above
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could extend the post-NFP volatility
Higher lows off 74,797 capped by a lower high at 76,068.
The NFP beat at 13:30 UTC and the follow-through in the 15:00 UTC hour flushed BTC below yesterday's 75,111 low to a 74,797 session low. A V-shaped recovery then cleared the 61.8% post-NFP retrace near 75,715. The higher-low chain is now capped by a lower high at 76,068, still under the 76,282 London high; RSI(14) is mid-50s and ATR is elevated near $390 after the data.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,068 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 76,282 london high in play
Failure to hold the 75,570 higher low unwinds the recovery and re-exposes the 74,797 session low
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read given the hawkish NFP repricing
Sweep of london low reclaimed; higher lows inside 24h range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) sparked a whipsaw that broke the London low at 75210 and ran to 74797 on the 15:00 UTC bar. That break was reclaimed, and a chain of higher lows since then has lifted price back to mid-range near 75875 after London close, capped so far at the 76068 NY high. RSI(14) is neutral near 51, and the 24h range of 75210–76314 (asia high) remains intact.
Support: 75,565.00, 75,210.00, 74,797.00
Resistance: 76,068.00, 76,314.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76068 NY high exposes the 76314 Asia high and the top of the 24h range
Failure to hold the 75565 higher low breaks the post-NFP higher-low chain and puts the 75210 London low back in play
A move back below the 74797 NFP low would turn the sweep into a range break lower
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC, under way) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read if they endorse a December hike
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) drove a flush to 74,797 that briefly broke below the Asian range low near 75,218, but it closed back inside and became a false break. Mid-NY, price has since printed higher lows at 75,321 and 75,565, retraced beyond 61.8% of the London high-to-NFP low drop, and is pressing the 76,055 post-NFP high with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 76,055 post-NFP high puts the 76,282 London high back in play
Loss of the 75,565 higher low, then the 75,321 swing low, breaks the post-NFP lows trendline and the recovery chain
A return below the 74,797 NFP low would negate the false-break read
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read if they endorse a December hike
16:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing after NY spike · RSI 43 · price 75,588.76
Lower highs from London high; higher lows off 74,797 spike low; 75,210–75,910 chop.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC off the 76,282 London high. The 15:00 UTC spike swept below the 75,210 London low to 74,797 and was bought back inside the bar. Since then price has chopped between 75,210 and the 75,910 lower high. After London close it sits near the 50% retracement of the 76,282–74,797 NFP drop, under the descending trendline from the London high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,910 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 76,055 NY high
Loss of the 75,321 swing low ends the higher-low sequence off the spike; a close below the 75,210 London low reopens 74,797
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; ATR is elevated at roughly $350 per bar
False break below Asian low, higher lows capped under 75805.
The hot 165K NFP at 13:30 UTC knocked BTC out of the London range. The 15:00 UTC Michigan print then swept the asian low down to the 74797 ny low before a full reclaim, a false break. Since then it has printed higher lows into the 75805 swing high and sits near the 61.8% retrace of the London-to-NY drop after London close, RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 75,321.00, 75,218.00, 74,797.00
Resistance: 75,805.00, 76,055.00, 76,282.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 75805 swing high lifts the post-sweep cap, with the 76055 spike high and 76282 london high above
Loss of the 75321 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 75218 asian low back in play
A re-break of the 74797 ny low negates the false-break read
Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC and Daly at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read after the hawkish jobs data
Lower highs from London high; higher low at 75,208 after session-low sweep.
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed BTC down from the 76,282 London high. In early NY hours price swept below the overnight low to the 74,797 session low and reclaimed it quickly; the bounce then stalled at 75,806, just above the 61.8% retracement of the NFP drop. Since then, a higher low at 75,208 and post-NFP lower highs have compressed price below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR near 322 USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,208 higher low reopens the 74,797 session low
Close above the 75,806 lower high breaks the post-NFP lower highs line and brings the 76,055 nfp spike high into view
Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC and Daly at 18:00 UTC could shift this read on any December hike signal
Lower highs off London high; Asian low swept, price back inside range.
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove NY-session selling through the asian low near 75208 to a 74797 sweep low, but the 15:00 UTC bar closed back inside the Asian range. Price is now near 75720, at the 61.8% retrace of the london high-to-sweep low move. It is capped below EMA20 and the ny high at 76055, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 75,208.00, 74,797.00
Resistance: 76,055.00, 76,282.00, 76,314.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian low at 75208 would turn the sweep into a range break and put the 74797 sweep low back in play
A close above the 76055 ny high breaks the descending highs from the 76282 london high
The 76314 asian high marks the top of the session range
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could extend the post-NFP move either way
Asian low swept and reclaimed, price back inside Asian range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) hit BTC at 13:30 UTC, and the NY session swept below the Asian low near 75210 to a NY low of 74796.63 before reclaiming the range within the bar. Price now sits near 75620, around the 50% retrace of the London-to-NY drop, below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 49. ATR has expanded to roughly 334 USD per bar.
Support: 75,210.00, 74,796.63
Resistance: 76,055.24, 76,313.96
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 75210 Asian low turns the sweep into a breakdown and puts the 74797 NY low back in play
Close above the 76055 spike high reopens the 76314 Asian high
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could extend the post-NFP volatility
Lower highs from 76,282; Asian low and prior low swept, then reclaimed.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC off the 76,282 London high. Lower highs followed, and the selloff swept the asian low and the 75,111 prior low to a 74,797 sweep low around the Michigan release. The rebound stalled at 75,760, just above the 61.8% retrace of the post-NFP drop, and price is back at 75,371 early in the NY session, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 75,220 asian low puts the 75,111 prior low and the 74,797 sweep low back in focus
Reclaiming the 75,760 rebound high and the 76,055 lower high would break the post-NFP lower-high sequence; the 76,282 London high sits above
Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC and Daly at 18:00 UTC could extend the hawkish post-NFP read
15:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the London high, bouncing off a spike low · RSI 42 · price 75,663.67
Lower highs from 76282; UoM-bar sweep below the prior low reclaimed.
The 165K NFP beat at 13:30 UTC (forecast 65K) pushed BTC off the 76282 london high into a sequence of lower highs. The 15:00 UTC UoM bar then swept through the 75215 london low and the 75111 prior low to a 74797 spike low before closing back near 75740. Price now sits about 58% back up that move, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 42, and ATR has expanded to roughly $330.
Support: 75,215.00, 75,111.00, 74,797.00
Resistance: 76,055.00, 76,282.00, 76,314.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below 75215 (london low) would undo the sweep rejection and expose the 74797 spike low
An M15 close above the 76055 lower high breaks the post-London sequence of lower highs, putting 76282 (london high) and 76314 (asian high) back in play
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could extend the hawkish NFP repricing during NY hours
15:03 UTC
Range, heavy after NFP · RSI 38 · price 75,500.85
Lower highs from London high, lows holding 75,214–75,258.
The hot payrolls print (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC off 75,950 into an NFP low at 75,214, matching the London low at 75,218. The 14:45 UTC spike to the post-NFP high at 76,055 was rejected, and the close came back near 75,435. That leaves lower highs below the London high at 76,282. Early NY session price sits in the lower half of the 75,214–76,282 range with RSI(14) near 38, below the 38.2% retracement of the NFP leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,214 NFP low breaks the session-low cluster and exposes the 75,111 window low
Reclaim of the 76,055 post-NFP high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 76,282 London high back in range
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Bowman at 17:15 and Daly at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:48 UTC
Range, NY sell-off retracing · RSI 46 · price 75,865.45
75,200–76,300 day range; lower highs since London high, lows held.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC from 76,000 to the 75,214 NFP low in early NY. That move swept the 75,218 London low by a few dollars before buyers reclaimed it. Price is now testing the 61.8% NFP drop fib near 75,870, the lower-highs line from the 76,282 London high, and the flat EMA20/50 cluster, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and the day range intact.
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the lower-highs line and 76,000 psych opens the 76,282 London high and 76,314 Asian high
Loss of the 75,519 pre-NFP low puts the 75,214 NFP low back in play; a close below it breaks the range toward the 75,111 24h low
Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) remarks on post-NFP rates could extend the NY move
Lower highs since 76,282 inside 75,220–76,310 session range.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) knocked BTC from the 76,282 session high to a 75,402 nfp low. The bounce stalled at 75,903, a lower high near the 61.8% of the drop. The wider 75,220–76,310 range holds: London's dip under the Asian low reversed at 75,218, and the morning rally was rejected just shy of the 76,314 asian high.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75,402 nfp low exposes the 75,218 london low and the 75,111 swing low
An M15 close above the 75,903 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the post-NFP sequence
The 76,282 session high / 76,314 asian high remains the range top; acceptance above it ends the range read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Bowman 17:15 and Daly 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 36 · price 75,484.87
Lower highs off 76,282; fresh session low inside the Asian range.
The hot NFP print (165K vs 65K) saw the spike to the nfp high near 75,991 rejected. Price then slid to a session low at 75,402 early in the NY session, extending the lower-high sequence off the 76,282 London high. Price sits in the lower half of the Asian range (75,218–76,314), below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 36 and not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the session low at 75,402 exposes the Asian low at 75,218 and the 75,111 swing low
M15 close above the nfp high near 75,991 breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the London high and Asian high (76,282–76,314) would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Bowman 17:15 and Daly 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
BTC has held a 75.1k–76.3k range since yesterday's NY-session slide from 79.5k. London lifted it off the 75218 session low to 76282, just under the 76314 Asian high. The NFP release bar flushed to 75519 and was rejected; price now sits mid-range near the 50% of the London leg, below both EMAs, with the 76000 psych level overhead.
Support: 75,519.00, 75,218.00, 75,111.00
Resistance: 76,000.00, 76,282.00, 76,314.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75519 NFP low exposes the 75218 session low and the 75111 prior low
M15 close back above 76000 psych reopens the 76282 session high / 76314 Asian high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC and Bowman at 17:15 UTC could shift this read
NFP actuals are not yet in the feed; a delayed reaction once the print is digested could break the range
13:49 UTC
Sideways after yesterday's NY sell-off, momentum soft · RSI 42 · price 75,775.55
75,200–76,300 range; London rally being retraced into early NY.
BTC has held a 75,200–76,300 range since yesterday's NY slide from 79,500. London swept the Asian range low at 75,258 to a 75,218 london low, then rallied to a 76,282 session high, just under the 76,314 asian high. The 13:30 UTC NFP bar ran to a 75,519 nfp low before closing back near 75,720, and price now sits around the 50% retrace of the London rally with RSI(14) near 42. The payrolls actual is not yet in the feed.
What it said to watch
A close below the 75,519 nfp low puts the 75,218 london low and the rising-lows line in play; below 75,111 (window low) breaks the range floor
A reclaim of 76,000 psych returns price to the range mid; acceptance above the 76,282 session high and 76,314 asian high breaks the range top
The NFP actual hitting the feed, then UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC during NY hours is a further volatility risk
After Thursday's Nasdaq-rout sell-off, BTC has held a 75,111–76,950 range, and the London leg from the 75,220 asia low to the 76,282 session high gave way at 12:30 UTC. The NFP bar pushed through the 75,880 range base to a 75,545 nfp low, about a 69% retrace of that leg, with RSI(14) near 45 and lower highs still capping from Thursday's 76,935 bounce peak.
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 75,880 range base puts price back inside the London range
Failure to hold the 75,545 nfp low exposes the 75,220 asia low and the 75,111 swing low
A close above the 76,282 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Payrolls volatility, then Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Range 75,200–76,300; London leg retracing into NY.
Price is still boxed in 75,200–76,300 after yesterday's slide from 79,400. London lifted off the Asian low at 75,218 and the London low at 75,388, but the rally met rejection at the 76,282 London high just under the 76,314 Asian high. The fade into the NY open printed a swing low at 75,727 on the 61.8% retracement of the London leg, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs ahead of NFP.
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) lands on the next bar and could materially shift this read; a hot wage print is the flagged downside risk
M15 close below the 75,727 swing low exposes the London low at 75,388 and the Asian low at 75,218
Break of the 75,218 Asian low invalidates the range read and confirms a lower low
Reclaim of the 76,000 round number reopens the London high / Asian high band at 76,282–76,314
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC are a second volatility point
Range 75,100–76,450; London leg up stalling at session high.
BTC has been boxed in a 75,100–76,450 range since yesterday's NY-session flush from 79,800. London lifted price off the Asian low at 75,218 to a 76,282 session high, which was rejected in the last hour. Price now sits on the London low at 75,878, RSI(14) near 44, heading into NFP at 13:30 UTC.
What it said to watch
NFP and AHE at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot wage print as the larger downside risk
M15 close below the london low at 75,878 exposes the 50% retracement of the london leg near 75,750 and the break base at 75,590
Failure to hold the asian low at 75,218 breaks the range floor
M15 close above the session high at 76,282 and the asian high at 76,314 opens the prior high at 76,446
12:49 UTC
Range after NY sell-off, mild upward drift · RSI 55 · price 76,142.15
London higher lows inside Asian range, capped below Asian high.
Yesterday's NY sell-off from 79,800 stalled at the 75,111 prior low. Price has ranged since. London lifted price off the Asian low on a higher-lows line and is holding a 75,878–76,282 band, with the session high capped just under the 76,314 Asian high and RSI(14) neutral near 55 into NFP.
What it said to watch
NFP, AHE and unemployment at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could break the session range in either direction; a hot print is the bigger stated risk for BTC
Close above the 76,314 Asian high exposes the 76,446 prior high, then the 38.2% crash fib near 76,900
Loss of the 75,878 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 75,218 Asian low and 75,111 prior low
Post-flush range 75,111–76,935; higher lows since Asia, testing session high.
BTC has been range-bound since yesterday's NY-session flush from 79,800 to 75,499. The overnight swing low at 75,111 and the asian low at 75,218 both held, and London broke above the Asian range. Price is now pressing the 76,282 session high, close to the 61.8% retracement of the 76,935 bounce high to 75,111 swing, with RSI(14) near 59 and no extreme heading into NFP.
What it said to watch
NFP, AHE and unemployment at 13:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read. A hot print is the flagged downside risk for BTC.
M15 close above the 76,445 prior high clears the retracement zone and opens a path toward the 76,935 bounce high
Loss of the 75,878 london low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts price back toward the 75,218 asian low and 75,111 swing low
12:17 UTC
Short-term recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 58 · price 76,067.23
London range break higher, now a tight 75,878–76,215 consolidation.
BTC has held the 75.1k–76.4k shelf since yesterday's NY-session slide from 79.5k, which came amid the AI/tech equity rout. A London-open rally lifted price from the 75,218 session low to the 76,215 session high. Since then it has compressed into a range with higher lows, with the 75,878 swing low holding near the 38.2% of that move. Price is still capped below the 76,314 Asian high ahead of NFP.
What it said to watch
NFP at 13:30 UTC (~75 min, f/c 65K): a hot print is the main risk to this read
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high opens the path toward the 76,446 prior high
Loss of the 75,878 swing low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 75,599 61.8% fib of the London rally
Break below the 75,218 session low puts the 75,111 day low back in play
12:04 UTC
Range after sell-off, London lift holding · RSI 57 · price 76,018.28
Tight London range above Asian low, inside yesterday's post-drop base.
BTC is holding a 75,878–76,215 London range (london low to london high) after the 09:00 UTC lift from the 75,590 london base, which itself followed buyers defending the 75,218 asian low. RSI(14) near 57 sits mid-band, and price remains above yesterday's 75,111 low, the floor of the NY sell-off from 80,166. NFP at 13:30 UTC is the next catalyst; the digest notes BTC looks more exposed to a hot print.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 76,215 london high exposes the 76,314 asia high and 76,445 swing high
Loss of 75,878 london low returns price to the 75,590 london base
Break below 75,218 asian low reopens yesterday's 75,111 floor
NFP, wages and unemployment at 13:30 UTC could break the range either way; UoM sentiment at 15:00 UTC follows
11:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, compressing below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 76,095.20
Higher lows off 75,111; tight 75,878–76,215 London range.
A 09:00 UTC London thrust lifted BTC off the 75,218 Asian low. Price has since compressed between the 75,878 swing low and the 76,215 session high, still under the 76,314 Asian high, with higher lows intact from yesterday's 75,111 NY-session low. Short-covering drove the rebound and the macro read flags BTC as more exposed to a hot NFP print.
What it said to watch
Close above the 76,215 session high and the 76,314 asian high extends the London breakout toward the 76,446 prior high
Loss of the 75,878 swing low returns price to the 75,590 break base
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 75,218 asian low confirms a lower-low
NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; event range likely exceeds the ~180 USD ATR
11:32 UTC
Range after NY-session selloff, London grinding higher · RSI 59 · price 76,012.29
Higher lows since the London sweep, capped below the Asian high.
BTC is still boxed in the 75,100–76,450 range that formed after yesterday's NY-session slide from 80,340, which came with the Nasdaq AI-equity rout and a haven USD bid. London swept the Asian range low to 75,218, then lifted through the 75,578 breakout base to a london high of 76,215. The pullback low at 75,878 is a higher low, but price is still capped under the asian high at 76,314.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high opens the 76,446 swing high
Loss of the 75,878 pullback low exposes the 75,578 breakout base and the rising trendline
61.8% of the london rally sits near 75,600, in line with the breakout base
Break below the 75,218 london low means the London rally has failed
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read
11:18 UTC
London bounce fading under highs · RSI 55 · price 75,930.38
Higher low at 75,580 intact; pullback from 76,215 inside a 75,110–76,935 range.
London lifted price out of the 75,220–75,750 overnight base at 09:00 UTC. The move stalled at a london high of 76,215, just under the asian high at 76,314, and is now easing toward the 38.2% fib at 75,834 with RSI(14) near 55. The window still sits inside the range that formed after yesterday's NY-session flush from 79,400 to 75,500, with no fresh BTC news and a pre-NFP USD bid in the backdrop.
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) lands early in the NY session and could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is about 185 USD per bar before the release
Holding the breakout base near 75,580, which sits at the 61.8% fib, keeps the London higher low intact; losing it reopens the session low at 75,220
An M15 close above the london high at 76,215 opens a test of the asian high at 76,314
75,111–76,935 range since yesterday's NY dump; London HL then lower high under 76,215.
Range since yesterday's NY flush from 80,300 to 75,500. London swept the Asian range low into 75,218, then broke the 75,580 base at 09:00 UTC. The 76,215 London high was rejected twice and price is easing back toward 75,950, sitting just above EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 57 ahead of NFP.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,215 london high exposes the 76,314 asian high, with 76,935 bounce high above
Failure to hold the 75,580 base break puts the 75,218 london low and 75,111 range low back in play
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; ATR near 20,000 pips (~$200)
10:47 UTC
Range after sharp selloff, London bounce · RSI 60 · price 76,114.18
75,110–76,450 range; Asia double bottom broken higher at London open.
BTC has ranged between 75,110 and the 76,446 range top since Thursday's NY-session flush from 80,340, which came alongside the AI equity rout. Asia formed a double bottom near 75,218–75,250. London open broke the 75,750 neckline, and the London base at 75,970 is holding, but the session high at 76,215 is capping so far, still inside the 76,314 Asian high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 Asian high opens the 76,446 range top
Loss of the 75,970 London base returns price toward the 75,750 neckline
Break below the 75,218 double bottom low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 75,111
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; London leg fib levels sit inside a ~220-point ATR
Higher lows since London sweep, coiling below the Asian high.
London swept below the Asian low to 75,218 (london low), then a 09:00 UTC impulse ran to the london high at 76,200. Price is now coiling between 75,970 and 76,200, still inside the range that followed Thursday's NY-session flush to the 75,111 swing low and capped below the asian high at 76,314. RSI(14) is near 63 and higher lows hold along the rising trendline into the 13:30 UTC NFP.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 76,314 breaks the post-flush range top, with the 76,446 ny pm high next
Loss of the coil low at 75,970 and the rising trendline puts the london low at 75,218 and the swing low at 75,111 back in focus
NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Michigan sentiment at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Range after NY sell-off, London rebound stalling · RSI 63 · price 76,092.20
Asian lower highs broken in London; tight consolidation below Asia high.
BTC has held a 75,110–76,450 range since Thursday's NY session slide from 79,800, which came alongside the Nasdaq AI rout. London broke the Asian lower-high chain with a 09:00 UTC thrust off the 75,218 Asia low. Price is now coiling between the 75,969 pullback low and the 76,200 London high, still below the 76,314 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 63.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 Asia high exposes the 76,446 NY high at the range top
Loss of the 75,969 pullback low puts the 75,580 breakout base and the fib 50% near 75,710 in play
Failure at the 75,218 Asia low reopens the 75,111 range floor
US NFP and AHE at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Michigan sentiment follows at 15:00 UTC
10:05 UTC
Post-sell-off range, early London lift · RSI 63 · price 76,105.19
75110–76450 range; Asian higher low at 75218, London pushing into upper half.
BTC has ranged 75110–76450 since yesterday's Nasdaq-led NY sell-off from 80300. Asia printed a higher low at 75218 (asian low) before London broke out of the pre-london 75590 base to a 76200 session high. The 75970 pullback low has held, with RSI(14) near 63 and price just under the 76314 asian high.
Support: 75,970.00, 75,590.00, 75,218.00
Resistance: 76,200.00, 76,314.00, 76,446.00
What it said to watch
NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a hot print plus firm wages is the flagged downside risk
M15 close above the 76314 asian high exposes the 76446 swing high and the top of the range
Loss of the 75970 pullback low puts the 75590 pre-london base, near the 61.8% of the london leg fib, back in play
Break of the rising swing-low line and the 75218 asian low reopens the 75110 range floor
75,100–76,450 range since Thursday's NY rout; higher lows, capped at 76,200.
Since Thursday's NY-session drop off 80,400, which came with the tech-led equity rout, BTC has held a 75,100–76,450 range. Early London lifted price from the 75,218 london low through the 75,750 range top to a 76,200 session high, where two bars stalled, with RSI(14) near 61. Higher lows at 75,111 and 75,218 are intact, and the 76,314 Asian high sits overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high clears the overnight lower highs, with the 76,445 prior high next
Loss of the 75,750 range top (≈50% of the London leg fib) returns price to the range interior toward the 75,218 london low
Break below the 75,111 swing low ends the higher lows sequence
NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot print with firm AHE as the larger downside risk
Range 75,111–76,446 since NY flush; rising lows in London.
Yesterday's NY-session flush from 79,400 to 75,500 came with the Nasdaq-led risk-off and haven USD bid, and BTC has since ranged between the 75,111 swing low and the 76,446 prior high. London has lifted from the 75,218 Asian low through a 76,200 session high, with rising lows off the base and RSI(14) near 67. Price is pressing the top half of the Asian range just below the 76,314 Asian high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high puts the 76,446 prior high and the range top in play
Failure back under the 75,388 london low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 75,218 asian low
A loss of the 75,111 swing low invalidates the double bottom read and extends the post-flush lower-low sequence
Rejection at the 76,200 session high keeps price inside the Asian range
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP/AHE at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot print is flagged as the larger risk
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, intraday bounce from a higher low · RSI 61 · price 76,097.20
Higher low at 75218, testing a lower-highs line.
After Thursday's NY-session flush from 79400 to 75499, the London-open dip to 75218 held as a higher low above the 75111 swing low. The 09:00 UTC bar then broke the 75400–75750 range top and lifted price to 76097, which sits on the lower-highs line from the 76446 swing high just under the 76314 Asian high. RSI(14) is 61, not stretched.
Support: 75,750.00, 75,218.00, 75,111.00
Resistance: 76,314.00, 76,446.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 76314 asian high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 76446 swing high next
A slip back under the 75750 range top would undo the London range break
Loss of the 75218 london low and the 75111 swing low would resume the lower-low chain and the higher low would fail
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a flat 75,220 floor; London inside the Asian range.
Yesterday's NY-session flush from 80,300 to 75,500 came alongside the Nasdaq slide into correction and haven USD demand. Since then price has carved lower highs from the 76,314 Asia high, while the 75,111 swing low has held. London briefly dipped below the Asian low to a 75,218 london low before recovering, and price now sits under the lower-highs line and the 75,750 range top, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-highs line and 75,750 range top breaks the compression; 76,314 asia high is next overhead
Failure to hold the 75,218 london low and the 75,111 swing low confirms a lower-low
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP/AHE at 13:30 UTC can materially shift this read; ATR is near $225 per bar
08:47 UTC
Downtrend after flush, basing · RSI 50 · price 75,618.72
Lower highs compressing onto a 75,100–75,250 floor.
Basing between 75,100 and 76,300 after yesterday's NY-hours flush from 80,400 amid the tech-led risk-off, with a chain of lower highs pressing price toward the floor. London open swept the Asian low to the 75,218 london low and snapped back, leaving price mid-range just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,111 prior low breaks the base and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the lower highs trendline near 75,750 opens a retest of the 76,314 asian high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend after NY-session flush, now compressing · RSI 47 · price 75,529.82
Lower highs from the Asian high pressing into flat lows near 75,220.
Yesterday's NY-session liquidation took BTC from 80,000 to 75,500 alongside the tech-led equity rout. It has since held a 75,100–76,450 band, with lower highs from the 76,314 Asian high compressing price onto the 75,218 London low. Early London trades just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,218 London low exposes the 75,111 Nov 5 low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the lower highs line near 75,750 breaks the compression and puts the 76,314 Asian high back in view
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near the lows · RSI 48 · price 75,622.72
Lower highs through Asia, floor in 75,200s.
Yesterday's NY-session flush took BTC from 79,400 to 75,500 inside about an hour, as the USD haven bid built on the equity rout. Since then the tape has held a 75,100–76,300 band. Asia printed lower highs off the 76,314 asia high and a session low at 75,218 at 07:30 UTC. Early London is bouncing toward the 38.2% of the asia decline near 75,640, with the morning high at 75,749 just above.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,749 morning high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the Asia sequence
Failure at 75,218 session low exposes the 75,111 24h low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then NFP/AHE at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Reclaim of 76,314 asia high needed to undo the lower-highs structure
Lower highs from the Asian high into a flat 75,220–75,260 base.
BTC sits on 75,500 at London open after yesterday's NY-session flush from 80K. The Asian session printed lower highs from the 76,314 Asian high, while the 75,218 Asian low held on three tests. The last bounce stalled at the 75,750 lower high, near the 50% fib of the Asian decline, with RSI(14) mid-40s and price below both EMAs as the dollar firms on haven flows.
What it said to watch
Break of the 75,218 Asian low exposes the 75,111 swing low from late NY hours
Close above the 75,750 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 76,314 Asian high back in play
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Post-flush drift lower, lower highs since Asia · RSI 48 · price 75,711.62
Lower-high sequence off the 76314 Asian high; Asian range low swept and reclaimed pre-London.
BTC has been boxed in a 75100–76450 band since yesterday's NY-session flush from 79.4K, and Asia printed lower highs off 76314. The 07:30 UTC bar swept below the Asian range low to 75218 and reclaimed it, and price is now pressing the descending lower-highs line near the 75757 lower high ahead of the London open. RSI(14) sits near 48 and NFP risk later today keeps the tape fragile.
Support: 75,218.16, 75,111.28
Resistance: 76,000.00, 76,313.96
What it said to watch
Close above the 75757 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 76000 round number and 76314 Asian high in play
Loss of the 75218 sweep low turns the reclaim into a failed bounce and exposes the 75111 day low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read after a run of US labor beats
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower after NY flush · RSI 37 · price 75,233.15
Lower highs since Asian high, testing Asian low.
Yesterday's NY-session flush from 80,300 to 75,500 has not been retraced. Asia then printed lower highs from the 76,314 Asian high, and the London open is pressing the Asian low near 75,258 with RSI(14) near 37. The 75,111 swing low and 75,000 round number sit directly below.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,111 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 75,000 round number
Reclaim of the 75,706 swing high breaks the Asian lower-high trendline
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) after a week of labor beats could materially shift this read
75,100–76,450 range after NY sell-off; lower highs through Asia.
Thursday's NY-open flush from 79,400 to 75,499 has settled into a 75,100–76,450 range. Asia has printed a chain of lower highs off the 76,314 Asian high and is pressing the 75,258 Asian low ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,258 Asian low exposes the 75,111 swing low and extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 75,706 lower high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 76,314 Asian high
Range top at 76,445 sits near the 23.6% NY sell-off fib; acceptance above it would change the range read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 75,612.73
Lower highs through Asia above a 75,258 session low.
Thursday's NY session flushed BTC from 79,600 to 75,500, and the post-flush rebound stalled at the 76,935 ny high. The late sweep of 75,111 swing low bounced only to the 76,314 asian high. Asia has since printed lower highs into a 75,258 session low, and price is pinned below both EMAs ahead of London with RSI(14) near 44.
What it said to watch
A break below the 75,258 session low, and then the 75,111 swing low, extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 75,758 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would break the Asian downtrend structure
The 76,314 asian high caps the overnight rebound; it marks the 100% end of the Asian fib, with 38.2% near 75,660
The 76,935 ny high is the upper edge of Thursday's post-flush rebound
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a hot print tilts against a fragile tape
Asia lower highs from 76,314; 75,258 low holding above the 75,111 24h low.
After yesterday's NY-session flush from 79.4K, Asia has printed lower highs from the 76,314 Asian high. The 75,258 Asia low is holding above the 75,111 24h low, and price is pressing the Asia lower-highs trendline near 75,600 with RSI(14) at 38, below the 38.2% retracement of the Asia leg fib (~75,660).
What it said to watch
A close above the 75,683 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline and brings the 50% of the Asia leg fib (~75,786) into view.
Losing the 75,258 Asia low exposes the 75,111 24h low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence.
Recovery toward the 76,314 Asia high is needed to negate the intraday downtrend read.
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; London open is also due shortly.
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session, price pressing the 75,100–75,260 range base.
After yesterday's NY-session flush to 75,499, BTC has held a 75,100–76,450 range. Asia has stepped lower from the 76,314 asia high, with a lower high capping near 75,683 (the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib) and a fresh asia low at 75,258. RSI(14) sits near 35 with price below both EMAs, and the firm run of US labor data keeps the tape defensive into NFP.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75,258 asia low exposes the 75,111 swing low, the base of the post-flush range
A close above the 75,683 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence; the asia high at 76,314 is the range top above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-flush range 75,100–76,450 with lower highs; Asian session faded to lower half.
Thursday's NY-session flush from 80,700 to 75,500 picked up pace around the firm US claims print. Since then price has held a 75,100–76,450 consolidation, capped below the 76,935 rebound high. The Asian session faded from its 76,314 Asian high to a 75,258 session low, still above the 75,111 swing low, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
A break of the 75,258 session low and the 75,111 swing low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 75,000 round number
Recovery above the 75,820 lower high and the 61.8% Asian fib (~75,910) neutralises the Asian fade; the 76,314 Asian high is the range ceiling to clear
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, ranging after flush · RSI 36 · price 75,611.73
Lower highs inside a 75,111–76,446 post-drop range.
Thursday's NY-session flush from 80,300 to 75,500 left a range capped by the 76,446 range top, with the 75,111 swing low as its floor. The Asian session has printed lower highs from the 76,314 Asian high, tagged a 75,258 session low and is now bouncing toward the 38.2% fib near 75,660. RSI(14) sits near 36 as firm US labour data keeps the tape fragile into payrolls.
What it said to watch
Close above the 75,758 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 50–61.8% fib (75,786–75,911) in play
Failure to hold the 75,258 session low exposes the 75,111 swing low and the 75,000 round number
Close above the 76,314 Asian high returns price to the 76,446 range top
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 32 · price 75,311.06
Asia lower-high chain off 76,314; price pressing session low above 75,111 swing low.
The Asia session has printed lower highs from the 76,314 session high and is pressing its low near 75,307. That retraces more than 78.6% of the overnight bounce off the 75,111 swing low. The 75,480 broken shelf, which held three times after yesterday's NY-session flush from 79,600, now caps price, and RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
A break of the 75,111 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 75,000 round number
An M15 close back above the 75,480 broken shelf softens the downside read
A recovery above the 75,758 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain, with the 76,314 session high next
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 32 · price 75,490.86
Lower highs since the Asia high, retesting the post-flush low.
After yesterday's NY-session flush from 80,300 to the 75,500 area, Asia session has stepped lower from the asia high at 76,314. Price has given back about 68% of the 75,111–76,314 bounce and is pressing the session low near 75,460, under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 32. Each rally since 00:30 UTC has capped at a lower high, the latest at 75,758.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,460 session low leaves the 75,111 swing low and the 75,000 round number exposed
Recovery above the 75,758 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 76,314 asia high back in view
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a hot print fits the defensive tone in the digest
Lower highs through Asia, price pressing the Asian low after the NY-open flush.
The NY-open liquidation took BTC from 79,400 to 75,499 inside five bars. The 76,935 bounce high has since capped price, and buyers absorbed the late-session dip to the 75,111 swing low. Asia has printed lower highs off the 76,314 Asian high, with supply sitting on the descending line. Late in the Asia session, price is holding just above the 75,524 Asian low on a defensive, ETF-outflow tape.
What it said to watch
A close below the 75,524 Asian low opens a retest of the 75,111 swing low
A close above the descending line and the 76,314 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with 76,935 bounce high next
Price is below the fib 23.6% (~75,710); reclaiming 50% (~75,920) shifts the Asia read to range
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after flush · RSI 36 · price 75,675.66
Lower highs inside post-flush range; Asian session fading toward its low.
Yesterday's NY-session flush took BTC from about 79,400 to 75,499, and the tape has since held a 75,100–76,950 range capped by the 76,935 bounce high, with defensive ETF-led sentiment in the background. The Asian session has faded from its 76,314 Asian high in a lower-high sequence, retracing roughly 62% of the overnight bounce from the 75,111 swing low; RSI(14) sits near 36.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75,524 Asian low exposes the 75,111 swing low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 75,818 lower high breaks the Asian-session lower-high chain; the 76,314 Asian high and 76,935 bounce high sit above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the 76,314 Asian high, pressing the session low.
BTC flushed from the 80,000 area to a 75,499 dump low during NY hours yesterday, then chopped between the 75,111 swing low and 76,300 overnight. Late in the Asia session, a lower high at 76,196 under the 76,314 Asian high has rolled into a fresh session low at 75,532, with price slipping beneath the overnight floor near 75,650 and RSI(14) near 31.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,499 dump low exposes the 75,111 swing low
Reclaim of the 76,196 lower high and 76,314 Asian high breaks the descending trendline and negates the range break
Close above the 76,935 bounce high would undo the post-flush lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after flush · RSI 37 · price 75,599.74
Lower highs inside 75,100–76,450 post-flush band.
BTC flushed from 80,300 to the 75,500 NY low during NY hours, alongside the USD rebound on 189K claims and hawkish Fed talk. It has since chopped in a 75,100–76,450 band capped by lower highs, with the 75,111 swing low set late in NY. Late Asia session is pressing the Asian range low near 75,580 after a rejection at the 76,314 Asian high. RSI(14) is at 37 and price sits below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
A close below the 75,500 ny low exposes the 75,111 swing low.
A recovery above the 76,000 round number and the 76,314 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline. The 76,446 lower high sits above.
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read.
04:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing after the NY flush · RSI 38 · price 75,778.55
Range 75111–76446 below post-flush lower highs, price at the Asian low.
Yesterday's NY-session flush from 79.4K bottomed at the 75498.85 NY flush low. Price has since chopped between the 75111.28 swing low and the 76445.81 lower high, with no BTC-specific news. Late in the Asia session, price is back at the 75658.68 Asian low and has retraced roughly half of the overnight bounce, while the 76313.96 Asian high and the lower-high trendline continue to cap rebounds.
Support: 75,658.68, 75,498.85, 75,111.28
Resistance: 76,313.96, 76,445.81
What it said to watch
A close below the Asian low at 75658.68 puts the 75498.85 NY flush low and the 75111.28 swing low back in play
Reclaiming the Asian high at 76313.96 and the 76445.81 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read, with a hot print the flagged downside risk
03:47 UTC
Post-selloff base, drifting lower within range · RSI 43 · price 75,853.46
Range 75,111–76,446 after NY-open flush; lower highs, price at Asian low.
BTC is basing after the flush from 79,400 to the 75,499 NY low near the cash open. A late-NY sweep to the 75,111 swing low was reclaimed, but the Asian high at 76,314 printed a lower high under the 76,446 prior high, and price is back testing the 75,659 Asian low with RSI(14) near 43, below both EMAs, as the tape stays defensive into NFP.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,659 asian low brings the 75,499 ny low and 75,111 swing low back into play
61.8% of the bounce fib near 75,570 is the next structural reference inside the range
Break of the lower-highs line through the 76,314 asian high exposes the 76,446 prior high
London open around 07:00 UTC is likely to set the first test of the Asian range
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Range 75.1K–76.9K after NY flush; Asian range printing lower highs.
Yesterday's NY-session flush from 80.3K cut through the $77K post-hack low cited in the news. It set a ny low at 75,499, and a late-session sweep to 75,111 was reclaimed within the hour. In the Asia session, price is holding a 75,793–76,314 range with lower highs off the range top. It sits at the 38.2% fib of the sweep-to-asia-high move, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Break of the asia low at 75,793 exposes the ny low at 75,500 and the 75,111 sweep low
M15 close above the asia high at 76,314 breaks the lower highs line; the range top at 76,445 and bounce high at 76,935 sit above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a hot print is the larger risk to the range floor
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a range · RSI 53 · price 76,015.29
Post-selloff range 75,500–76,450, Asia trading mid-range.
BTC dropped from 80,330 to 75,500 during NY hours, with no fresh catalyst in the stale news digest, then settled into a 75,500–76,450 range. A late false break to the 75,111 swing low reversed quickly. The Asia session is chopping between the asian low at 75,794 and the asian high at 76,314, which sits near the 23.6% selloff fib; price is pinned on EMA20, below EMA50, with RSI(14) at about 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,446 range high breaks the post-selloff range, with the 76,935 bounce high next
Loss of the 75,794 asian low exposes the 75,500 range low and the 75,111 swing low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-selloff consolidation; Asian range 75,794–76,314.
BTC dropped from about 80,300 to the 75,499 NY low during Thursday's NY session, then briefly swept below it to a 75,111 swing low late in the session before reclaiming the range. Asia is coiling mid-range between 75,794 and 76,314, with a 76,935 bounce high (near the 38.2% fib) and a 76,446 lower high both capping the recovery under the descending trendline. RSI(14) sits neutral near 55, and the digest carries no fresh crypto headline to explain the leg.
What it said to watch
Close above the 76,314 Asian high and the 76,446 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib at 76,903
Loss of the 75,794 Asian low reopens the 75,499 NY low; below that, the 75,111 swing low comes back into focus
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a hot print is the risk flagged for a fragile tape
75500–76450 range after NY flush; higher low in Asia.
Ranging since yesterday's NY-session flush from 80340 to the 75499 ny low. A late-NY dip to the 75111 sweep low was reclaimed within an hour, and the asia low at 75794 now marks a higher low. Price sits mid-Asian range at 76057, under the asia high 76314 and the 23.6% selloff fib near 76350, with RSI(14) neutral and sentiment defensive into NFP.
Support: 75,793.53, 75,498.85, 75,111.28
Resistance: 76,313.96, 76,445.81, 76,935.27
What it said to watch
Close above the asia high 76314 and the 23.6% selloff fib opens the swing high 76446, then the bounce high 76935
Break of the asia low 75794 cancels the higher low and puts the ny low 75499 back in play
Loss of the 75111 sweep low resumes the selloff structure
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Coil inside 75,111–76,446 after the NY flush; Asian range 75,794–76,314.
The NY session flushed price from 80,300 to the 75,499 ny low with no fresh BTC headline in the digest. Since then a sequence of lower highs (76,935 bounce high, 76,446 lower high, 76,314 asian high) is capping price. A late-NY dip to the 75,111 swing low was reclaimed, and Asia is now coiling mid-range around 76,080. RSI(14) is neutral near 49, ATR is about $290.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 76,446 lower high is next
Loss of the 75,794 asian low, below the bounce fib 50% (~75,713), exposes the 75,499 ny low and the 75,111 swing low
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
75,100–76,950 range after NY-session flush; Asian range compressing inside it.
Yesterday's NY-session flush from 80,300 to the 75,499 flush low has settled into a range capped by lower highs (76,935 bounce high, 76,446 swing high). The late-session false break to the 75,111 range low was reclaimed within a bar. Early Asia has a 75,794–76,314 range, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) near 53.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 75,794 asia low exposes the 75,499 flush low, then the 75,111 range low
Close above the 76,314 asia high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 76,446 swing high and 76,935 bounce high in play
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 54 · price 76,051.25
Post-selloff range 75,100–76,900; higher low in Asia.
NY session flushed BTC from 80,340 to the 75,500 NY low, and a sweep of the 75,111 swing low after NY close was bought back into the range. Early Asia is rotating between the 75,794 Asia low and the 76,314 Asia high, just under the 23.6% retrace of the NY selloff. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, with price above EMA20 but below EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,794 Asia low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 75,500 NY low and 75,111 swing low
Acceptance above the 76,314 Asia high opens the 76,446 evening high, then the 76,935 bounce high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:48 UTC
Sideways after NY flush, short-term higher lows · RSI 54 · price 76,068.23
75,111–76,446 range below the flush; Asian session printing higher lows.
The NY session flush during the US tech selloff took price from 79,800 to a flush low at 75,499, with the bounce high at 76,935. Since then price has held a 75,111–76,446 range. A late-NY false break to the 75,111 swing low was reclaimed within a bar. The Asian range of 75,794–76,314 is building rising lows, holding the 50% rebound fib, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 75,794 asian low breaks the rising lows and puts the flush low at 75,499 back in play
Loss of the 75,111 swing low turns the false break into a lower-low continuation
Close above the 76,314 asian high and the 76,446 range high opens the 76,935 bounce high
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 49 · price 75,962.34
Post-selloff range 75,500–76,900 with lower highs, late sweep low reclaimed.
NY session broke down from the 80,150–80,800 Asia/London range to the 75,499 ny low, well below the stale ~$79K reference in the news digest. Since then it has held a lower-highs consolidation. A late-NY sweep to the 75,111 swing low was reclaimed, and early Asia is fading off the 76,314 overnight hi toward EMA20 near 75,980, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 75,794 pullback low reopens the 75,499 ny low and the 75,111 swing low
A close above the 76,314 overnight hi breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 76,446 swing high sits near the 23.6% fib
A reclaim of the 76,935 bounce high invalidates the post-selloff consolidation read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a hot print as the larger downside risk
01:17 UTC
Downtrend after NY flush, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 57 · price 76,159.13
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped below the NY high.
BTC broke down from the 80,000 area through the London-NY transition and first hours of NY, flushing to the ny low at 75,499 before chopping in a 75,500–76,450 band. The Asia session swept below that low to 75,111 and reclaimed it. The asian rally is now stalling just under the asian high at 76,314, with the swing low at 76,052 underneath and RSI(14) neutral near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high 76,314 and the ny high 76,446 opens the path to the bounce high at 76,935
Loss of the swing low 76,052 and the asian uptrend line exposes the 50% retrace of the asian rally near 75,713, then the ny low at 75,499
Break below the asian low 75,111 resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A flush during NY hours took BTC from 80,300 to 75,500, then a 75,650 to 76,450 range held until a late sweep low at 75,111 was reclaimed. The Asia session is now testing the 76,314 asian high, at the 61.8% of the 76,935 to 75,111 bounce fib, with higher lows along the rebound line, RSI(14) near 56 and price below EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,314 asian high and the 76,445 swing high reopens the 76,935 bounce high
Break of the rebound line and the 75,952 asian low returns price to the 75,650 range floor
Loss of the 75,111 sweep low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend after NY flush, bouncing inside range · RSI 59 · price 76,276.00
Post-flush range 75,500–76,935, lower highs, range low swept and reclaimed.
Thursday's NY selloff, accelerating from the 13:30 UTC claims beat, took BTC from ~80,300 to 75,500, followed by an 8h range capped by lower highs. A late sweep low at 75,111 near 23:00 UTC was reclaimed, and price now sits at the 61.8% retrace of the range high to sweep low leg near 76,276 as the Asia session opens.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,445 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 76,935 range high in play
Loss of the 76,000 psych level returns price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the 75,500 range low reopens the 75,111 sweep low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising after NY flush · RSI 53 · price 76,118.17
Post-flush range 75,100–76,950; higher lows since late-session sweep.
Selling accelerated after the NY open, taking BTC from 79,400 to the 75,500 ny low on a fragile, defensive tape. A late-session sweep to the 75,111 swing low was reclaimed within one bar. Early Asia session is printing higher lows into the 76,220 session high, which sits at the 23.6% fib of the flush.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 76,220 session high and 76,445 prior high opens the 76,935 bounce high and 38.2% fib
Break of the rising lows and a close back below the 75,500 ny low revives the downtrend read
Loss of the 75,111 swing low confirms a lower-low and turns the sweep into continuation
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after liquidation leg · RSI 52 · price 76,099.19
Lower highs inside 75,500–76,450 range; late sweep below reclaimed.
NY hours broke the 80,150–80,800 range on firm US labor data and liquidated to 75,499 by 15:45 UTC. Price has since held a range under lower highs from the 76,935 bounce high. A late-NY sweep low at 75,111 was reclaimed into the Asia session, with price back near 76,100 below the 76,446 range high and RSI(14) neutral at 52.
What it said to watch
Close back below the 75,500 range low, then the 75,111 sweep low, resumes the downtrend leg
Close above the 76,446 range high clears the lower highs line; the 76,935 bounce high and 38.2% selloff fib near 77,105 sit above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY sell-off · RSI 47 · price 75,967.34
Post-crash range 75,111–76,935 with lower highs; late low swept and reclaimed.
BTC broke below the 80.1–80.8k Asia/London range around 12:00 UTC. The sell-off accelerated during NY hours to a 75,499 prior low as firm US labor data lifted the USD and tech equities slid. Since then price has ranged below the 76,935 bounce high, and the 23:00 UTC sweep to the 75,111 session low was reclaimed. Price now sits at the 76,000 round number with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
What it said to watch
Failure at the 76,000 round number and a close back below the 75,499 prior low reopens the 75,111 session low
Break of the 76,446 swing high opens the 76,935 bounce high and the 23.6% sell-off fib
Fed Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC Fri) could materially shift this read