Lower highs from 81,893 and 81,104; lower lows through 75,671 to 74,797.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 81,893 peak in late October, and the rebound to 81,104 failed on Nov 4. The Nov 5 collapse broke the 75,671 swing low and the prior 76,200–80,800 range. Price is now basing in a tight 74,800–76,450 shelf just above the 75,000 round number, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) expanded to roughly $1,230. The hot NFP and wage beat lifted USD and real yields, and the move came alongside heavy spot ETF outflows, which together explain the lack of follow-through on bounces.
What it said to watch
H4 failure to hold the 74,797 window low extends the lower-low sequence below the 75,000 round number
H4 close above the 76,446 range top turns the shelf into a base and opens the 77,950 fib 50% retracement
Lower-highs trendline from 81,893 and the 79k cap mark the levels where the downtrend read would be invalidated
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and Fed's Daly today at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low sequence; tight range above the 75111 swing low.
The early-November rally stalled at 81104, below the 81893 late-October high, extending the lower-highs line. A roughly 4,100-point drop then broke through the 79900 range floor and printed a fresh lower low at the 75111 swing low, with the USD bid into payrolls and AI-led risk-off weighing. Price is now compressing between that low and the 76446 range top, below both EMAs, while ATR(14) stays elevated after the breakdown bar.
Support: 75,111.28, 75,000.00
Resistance: 76,445.81, 77,400.00, 79,900.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 76446 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 77400
Failure to hold the 75111 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 75000 round number
NFP actuals (f/c 65K) are not yet in the feed, and a hot or soft print could resolve the range
Reclaiming the 79900 range floor would undermine the lower-highs read
Lower highs from 81,893 and 81,104; fresh swing low at 75,111 below the prior low at 75,670.
The late-October 79,300-81,900 range broke on the Oct 29 Binance-hack selloff. Price then held a 76,300-78,800 consolidation until a squeeze to 81,104, which stalled below the 81,893 prior high. That rejection was fully reversed by a single bar from the 79,460 breakdown area. The move cut through the 75,670 prior low to a new swing low at 75,111, leaving price below EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) expanding on record ETF outflows.
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) plus AHE could materially shift this read. A hot print and firm wages point to the downside risk flagged in the digest.
An H4 close back above the 75,670 prior low and the 76,300 range floor would mark the break below 75,670 as a false break.
Failure to hold the 75,111 swing low exposes the 75,000 round number and extends the lower-low sequence.
A recovery into the 38.2-50% fib zone near 77,400-78,100 that stalls under the lower-highs line keeps the downtrend structure intact.
Reclaiming the 79,460 breakdown level would neutralise the Nov 5 collapse.
Lower high at 81104 rejected, fresh lower low at 75111.
Three weeks of lower highs, from 81893 to the 81104 lower high, cap the H4 trendline. Thursday's roughly $4,100 flush broke below the post-hack prior lows at 76230–76400 and printed a new swing low at 75111. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR expanded to about $1,250 per bar, consistent with the defensive sentiment and ETF outflows in the digest. The early-week recovery toward 81K fully unwound and has not been followed by a bounce.
Support: 75,111.28, 75,000.00
Resistance: 76,400.00, 78,700.00, 81,103.68
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 75111 swing low and the 75000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 76400 prior lows turns the breakdown into a false break
The 61.8% fib near 78700 aligns with the prior pivot highs and marks the upper retracement boundary
A close above the 81104 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the downtrend read
NFP, AHE and unemployment at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with a hot print a key risk for the tape
Lower highs at 81893 then 81104; fresh lower low at 75111 below the 75671 sweep.
The Binance-hack flush broke the 79.4k–81.9k range, and the base that formed at 76.3k–78.8k gave way. The rebound to 81.1k printed a lower high below the 81893 peak and was rejected, then a single 3,700-point cascade bar took price through the 76300 base floor to a 75111 swing low, below the earlier 75671 sweep. Price sits under the EMA cluster near 78000, and ATR(14) is expanding near 1,265 points, so the H4 is in a trending, high-volatility phase rather than compression.
Support: 75,111.00, 75,000.00
Resistance: 76,300.00, 78,000.00, 81,100.00
What it said to watch
US NFP, AHE and the unemployment rate at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read; a hot print is flagged as the more damaging surprise for BTC
An H4 close back above the 76300 base floor would reframe the drop below 75671 as a false break
Failure to hold the 75111 swing low and the 75000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 38.2%–50% fib zone (77400–78100), which overlaps the EMA cluster, is needed to challenge the downtrend; only a close above the 81100 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Any movement in the hacker-held BTC wallets would revive supply fears flagged in the news