Lower highs from 81,890 with successive lower lows to 73,443.
BTC has printed lower highs at 81,890 and 81,100, each followed by a lower low, most recently 73,443. The 75,470–76,140 range that formed after the Nov 5 breakdown gave way late in the week as the hot NFP and the Binance-hack overhang weighed. Price trades below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, ATR(14) has re-expanded on the drop, and the rebound is stalling just under the prior low at 74,800.
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 75,470 range floor would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 73,443 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 76,140 range top opens the fib 50% at 77,270 and the 61.8% near 78,180
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Fed speakers Mon and Waller Tue precede it
Lower highs and lower lows; tight range above swing low.
Lower-high structure from 81,893 to 81,104 gave way to a sharp leg down to the 74,797 swing low. Since then price has held a narrow range between the 75,470 range low and the 76,140 range high, tested three times, and sits beneath the post-drop 76,445 swing high. Price is below both EMAs, and range-bound bars have pulled ATR(14) down from the impulse highs. The fib 38.2 of the 81.1k-74.8k leg sits at 77,206 and has not been approached, with the hot NFP/wage print and the Binance-hack overhang keeping rebounds shallow.
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read and break the compression
H4 close above the 76,140 range high, then the 76,445 swing high, opens the path toward the fib 38.2 near 77,206
Failure to hold the 75,470 range low exposes the 74,797 swing low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Continued compression in ATR(14) inside the range keeps a range break pending