LH/LL sequence since the early-October peak; range floor lost Oct 29.
BTC has carved lower highs every week since the Oct 4 peak near 86,870, with the 80,000–87,000 September–October range giving way on Oct 29 as the Binance hack drove price under 77,000. The Nov 3 rebound produced a lower high at 81,100, under the falling EMA(50), and was rejected the next day as the hot NFP and wage beat lifted Fed-hike pricing. Price is now holding just above the 73,443 swing low after losing the nov 2 low at 76,300. RSI near 36 is weak but not yet oversold.
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC: a hot core print could extend the lower-low chain, while a soft one could test the 76,300 nov 2 low
A daily close below the 73,443 swing low extends the LH/LL sequence toward the 70,000 round number
Daily closes back above 76,300 would put the 79,000 psych level and the 38.2% fib near 78,570 in play
Only a close above the 81,100 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the October downtrend structure
19:28 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since early October · RSI 38 · price 75,806.52
LH/LL chain intact; sideways basing just above the 74,797 swing low.
BTC has printed lower highs and lower lows since the early-October peak near 86,900. The Oct 29 Binance hack broke the 79,000 floor and opened a leg toward 76,000. The Nov 4 spike to the 81,104 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the Oct high-to-swing-low drop, was fully rejected the next session after the hot NFP and wage beats. Price is now holding a tight range for three sessions just above the 75,000 psych level and the 74,797 swing low. RSI sits near 38 and price trades below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 74,797 swing low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery cap at 79,000 (near the 50% fib) is the first area to watch for rejection or break on any rebound
Daily close above the 81,104 lower high breaks the October downtrend line and the LH sequence
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC, with Fed speakers Mon and Tue, could materially shift this read