22:07 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact · RSI 36 · price 74,768.66
LH/LL sequence from late-September peak, fresh swing low this week.
Seven-week downtrend of lower highs from the 87,183 late-September peak, with price below a falling EMA(50) and below EMA(20). The Oct 29 Binance-hack slide broke the 79,200 floor. The early-November spike to the 81,104 lower high was rejected the next session, and after the hot NFP print the slide extended to a new swing low at 73,443. RSI near 36 is soft but not oversold, so there is room before the 70,000 round number while the 76,230 prior low caps rebounds.
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 76,230 prior low would ease the immediate downside pressure
- Rebound into the 78,690 fib 38.2 / falling lower-highs trendline is the first major test of the downtrend
- Close above the 81,104 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain and invalidates the downtrend read
- Daily close below the 73,443 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 70,000 round number
- US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) after hot NFP could materially shift this read