BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 9 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, capped below the Asian high · RSI 56 · price 75,186.20
Higher-low chain since 08:00 UTC; lower high at 75241 below the 75474/75504 double cap.
Since the 73636 London-open low, BTC has printed higher lows. NY stalled at the 75474 ny high, just under the 75504 asian high, and the pullback held the 61.8% fib of the London low–NY high move at the 74319 swing low. Late NY ground up from the 74565 higher low to a 75241 late high as a softer USD and lower yields supported risk ahead of Tuesday's CPI. RSI(14) is in the mid-50s and price is now drifting near the late high.
Support: 74,998.41, 74,564.88, 74,319.15
Resistance: 75,241.14, 75,473.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
Close above the 75474 ny high / 75504 asian high would break the session range to the upside
Close back below the 74998 pullback low and the rising trendline turns the late-NY grind into a range toward the 74565 higher low
Loss of the 74319 swing low (61.8% fib) breaks the higher-low chain from the London low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London-open low; price retesting 75,000 under the late high.
After NY close, price has ground higher off the 74,319 NY low, a near-exact 61.8% retrace of the London-NY leg from 73,636. That bounce has built a chain of rising lows, and price is now retesting the 75,000 round number just under the 75,241 late high. The 75,474 NY high and the 75,504 day high from the Asian session still cap the window, while a softer USD (DXY below 102.00) has underpinned the recovery.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,504 day high clears the 75,474 NY high cap and the session range top
Rejection at the 75,241 late high with a close back below 75,000 round number stalls the rising lows
Close below the 74,720 swing low breaks the rising lows chain and puts the 74,319 NY low back in focus
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
23:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering the London-open drop · RSI 61 · price 75,169.22
Higher-low chain from 73636; late range top 75116 cleared, NY high 75474 still above.
BTC has retraced the London-open flush to 73636 with a rising trendline of higher lows. The late-NY dip held near the fib 61.8 at 74319 and later at the 74565 swing low, with a softer USD (DXY back below 102.00) as backdrop. After NY close price cleared 75000 and is pressing the 75241 late high. The NY high and Asia high at 75474–75504 sit overhead, and RSI(14) at 61 is not stretched.
Support: 75,000.00, 74,564.88, 74,319.15
Resistance: 75,241.14, 75,473.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75241 late high exposes the 75474 NY high / 75504 Asia high cluster
Loss of the 75000 round number and the rising trendline puts the 74565 swing low back in play
Break below the 74319 fib 61.8 negates the higher-low chain
Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC) on Tue could materially shift this read
22:49 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, higher lows intact · RSI 64 · price 75,168.22
Higher-low chain since London open; evening range broken to the upside.
Asia faded the Sunday-open day high at 75,597 into a 73,636 low at London open. Since then BTC has printed a chain of higher lows (74,251, 74,319 swing low, 74,565 higher low) as the USD softened, though the 75,474 NY high was rejected. Late NY broke the 74,565–74,990 evening range; the range top now sits underneath while price tests the 75,241 late high, RSI(14) near 64.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 74,990 range top negates the range break and puts the 74,565 higher low back in play
A close above the 75,474 ny high opens the 75,597 day high
A break of the rising lows trendline (~74,620) and loss of the 74,319 swing low, near the 61.8% of the london-ny leg, would end the higher-low chain
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 74,565, capped under 75,116 swing high.
BTC climbed from the 73,636 London-open low to a 75,474 NY high as USD gave back post-NFP gains, then held the 61.8% fib near 74,319 before spiking to a 75,116 swing high. Late NY trade is printing rising lows off the 74,565 swing low and compressing above the 74,720 range base, still under the swing high, with RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,116 swing high reopens the 75,474 NY high and the 75,597 Asia high
Loss of the 74,720 range base breaks the rising lows and puts the 74,565 swing low back in play
A break below the fib 61.8 at 74,319 would undo most of the London-NY leg
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue are the next macro catalysts for this read
22:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows under a capped top · RSI 61 · price 75,024.38
Higher lows from 73636, highs capped 75116–75474.
Recovery from the 73636 low set during London hours has printed higher lows at the 74319 swing low (near the 61.8% fib) and the 74565 higher low. The NY session high at 75474 was rejected, and quiet after-hours trade is now pressing the 75116 spike high. A softer USD on Monday, with DXY back below 102.00, has kept dips shallow; RSI(14) sits near 61.
Support: 74,564.88, 74,319.15
Resistance: 75,116.28, 75,473.88, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75116 spike high opens a retest of the 75474 session high and the 75597 sunday high
Close below the rising trendline near 74590 and the 74565 higher low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 74319 swing low
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read
22:07 UTC
Rebound off NY low, compressing · RSI 58 · price 74,895.52
Higher lows inside 74565–75116 range, below NY high.
A softer USD and lower yields lifted the NY leg from 74251, but it was rejected at the 75474 NY high, just under the 75597 day high. Since the 74319 NY low, higher lows have held along rising support. Price is now coiling at the 50% fib of the NY leg, inside a 74565–75116 range. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR is about 225 points.
Support: 74,564.88, 74,319.15
Resistance: 75,116.28, 75,473.88, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above 75116 range top opens a retest of the 75474 NY high and the 75597 day high
Break below the 74565 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 74319 NY low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 56 · price 74,902.51
Coil inside 74,320–75,120 after NY high rejected below Asian high.
London cleared the Asian low to 73,636 before the NY session rallied to a 75,474 high, rejected just shy of the 75,504 Asian high. Price has since printed lower highs at the 75,116 swing high and is coiling 74,565–74,930 in late NY hours, holding above the NY low at 74,319 near the 61.8% fib. RSI(14) ~56 and price sits above both EMAs, with a softer USD on Iran-deal headlines but no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,116 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 75,474 NY high next
Loss of the 74,565 swing low exposes the NY low at 74,319 and the 61.8% fib
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC Tue) and US CPI (13:30 UTC Tue) could materially shift this read
21:18 UTC
Intraday range, compressing after NY rejection · RSI 52 · price 74,774.65
Lower highs from 75474 against higher lows from 74319, coiling near 74770.
The rally from the 73636 london low was rejected at the 75474 ny high, just shy of the 75504 Asian high, during NY hours. Since then a lower high at 74944 and the 19:30 UTC spike high at 75116 have formed against a higher low at 74319 and a swing low at 74565. Price is coiling at the 38.2% retrace near 74770 late in the session, with the dollar soft on the day.
Support: 74,564.88, 74,319.15, 73,635.91
Resistance: 74,944.47, 75,116.28, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74565 swing low breaks the rising support line and puts the 74319 higher low (61.8% fib) back in play
Close above the 74944 lower high, then the 75116 spike high, would challenge the compression and reopen the 75474 ny high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
Lower high at 75,116 after the NY session high rejection; range 74,319–75,474.
The NY session rally off the London low stalled at the 75,474 session high, just under the Asian high near 75,500. The rejection pulled price to a 74,319 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg, followed by a lower high at 75,116. Price is hugging the EMA20 mid-range after NY hours with RSI ~53, and a softer USD has lifted BTC only modestly, so no structure is in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,116 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 75,474 session high
Failure to hold the 74,319 swing low (61.8% fib) puts the 73,636 london low back in focus
Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:49 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY high · RSI 48 · price 74,697.74
Contracting range 74320–75120 after rejection under Asian high.
The NY session rally off the London low at 73636 was rejected at the NY high of 75474, just under the 75504 Asian high. Price has since printed lower highs at 75116 and 74930 with a late low at 74565, and is now coiling at EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 48. BTC has not tracked Monday's softer USD, and Tuesday's CPI is the next driver.
Support: 74,564.88, 74,319.15, 73,635.91
Resistance: 74,930.48, 75,116.28, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 75116 spike high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 75474 NY high back in play
Failure to hold the 74319 ny low, near the 61.8% retracement of the London-NY leg, exposes the 73636 london low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
20:33 UTC
Two-way range, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 46 · price 74,680.76
Lower highs inside 73636–75504 range.
London swept below the Asian range to the london low at 73636. NY then rallied to the ny high at 75474 but was rejected just under the 75504 asian high, despite a softer USD tape. Since then the lower-high trendline (75474, then the 75116 spike high) has capped price, which sits mid-range near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 74,319.15, 74,251.23, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,116.28, 75,473.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75116 spike high breaks the lower-high trendline; the ny high and asian high at 75474–75504 sit above that
Failure to hold the 74319 swing low and the 74251 ny open low (61.8% fib zone) exposes the london low at 73636
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
20:18 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since NY high · RSI 49 · price 74,898.52
Mid-range inside 73636–75504 day range; NY high capped below Asia high, 75116 spike rejected.
Late NY, BTC sits at the 50% retrace of the drop from the 75474 ny high to the 74319 swing low. The 19:30 UTC spike high at 75116 faded and sets a third lower high under the 75504 asia high, so price stays capped despite the softer USD. RSI near 49 and the 73636 london low still frames the day range.
Support: 74,720.00, 74,319.15, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,116.28, 75,473.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75116 spike high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 75474 ny high / 75504 asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 74720 pullback low exposes the 74319 swing low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially reset this range read
20:05 UTC
Range, higher lows since London open · RSI 48 · price 74,804.62
Coiling between rising lows and a NY lower high.
Since the 73,636 London-open low, lows have stepped up to 73,953, 74,251 and the 74,319 swing low, which held near the 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg. Late in the NY session price is coiling below the 75,116 lower high and the 75,474 session high, holding above the 50% fib at 74,555, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 as USD softens on Fed-speaker flow and no fresh BTC news.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 74,319 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 74,251 ny low
Close above the 75,116 lower high reopens the 75,474 session high and the 75,597 asia high
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 74,555 shifts focus back to the swing low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
19:48 UTC
Two-way, recovering off London low · RSI 53 · price 74,895.52
NY range 74319–75474, lower high at 75116.
After the Asia-session slide from 75500 into the 73636 London low, NY rallied to the 75474 NY high on a softer USD, then faded to a 74319 swing low near the 61.8% retrace. The late-NY spike off the 74470 spike base was rejected at 75116, printing a lower high with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 74,470.00, 74,319.00, 73,636.00
Resistance: 75,116.00, 75,474.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75116 spike high puts the 75474 NY high back in play and voids the lower-high read
Loss of the 74470 spike base, then the 74319 swing low, exposes the 73636 London low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read
19:33 UTC
Two-way intraday, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 41 · price 74,505.95
Lower highs against higher lows, compressing below 75,000.
The NY high at 75,474 met rejection just under the 75,500 area that also capped Asia, and a lower-high sequence has followed. Price sits near the 50% retrace of the London-NY leg (~74,555), below EMA20/50, with the rising trendline from the 73,636 London low and the 74,319 swing low still holding; a weaker USD today has not lifted BTC off that range.
What it said to watch
A break of the 74,319 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 74,251 NY open low, then the 73,636 London low
An M15 close above the 74,665 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 75,000 psych level and the 75,474 NY high are next
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
19:18 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 41 · price 74,559.89
LH/LL sequence off 75,474 inside Asian range.
Late NY, after London close: price is fading from the 75,474 NY high. Lower highs sit at the 75,005 round number and the 74,784 lower high, and the 18:15 UTC swing low at 74,319 marks the third lower low. Price has retraced about 75% of the 74,251–75,474 NY rally and is sitting on EMA50, still inside the 73,636–75,504 Asian range. There is no BTC-specific catalyst; the tape is tracking a softer USD ahead of Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,319 swing low and the 74,251 ny open low breaks the NY lows line and exposes the 73,636 asian low
Close above the 74,784 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 75,005 round number and the 75,474 ny high sit above
Bars holding inside the 78.6% band of the NY rally fib (~74,513) keep the pullback read intact
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 75597 against rising lows from 73636; mid-range in late NY.
After Sunday evening's flush to 73443, BTC has compressed between lower highs (the 75597 Sunday high, then the 75474 NY high) and rising lows (73636 London low, the 74251 higher low and the 74319 NY low). The NY rally was rejected at 75474 and price is back below the 75000 round number, with RSI(14) near 40 and EMA20/50 just overhead as the market waits on Tuesday's CPI after Friday's hot payrolls.
Support: 74,319.15, 74,251.23, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,000.00, 75,473.88, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74319 NY low tests the rising lows line and the 74251 higher low; losing both reopens the 73636 London low
Reclaim of the 75000 round number and a break of the 75474 NY high would challenge the lower highs line toward the 75597 Sunday high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:49 UTC
Intraday range, sliding off NY high · RSI 41 · price 74,490.96
Lower highs since 75,474 rejection; still above 74,251 NY low.
The NY session rally from 74,251 stalled at 75,474, just under the 75,504 Asian high, and late-NY trade has printed lower highs down to 74,785. Price is back near the 61.8% retracement of the London low to NY high move, with the 74,319 swing low holding for now. This is happening despite a softer USD on the day, while CPI looms Tuesday.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 74,251 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 73,636 London low
Reclaim of 74,785 lower high and the 75,000 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Waller 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the London low capped at 75,474; late-NY pullback printing lower highs and lower lows.
The NY rally off the 74,251 NY low was rejected at 75,474, short of the Sunday-night 75,597 bounce high, and late NY has since pulled back in lower-high steps to the 61.8% fib near 74,338. Price is back under EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) at 45 and no fresh BTC news. The London low at 73,636 remains the floor of the 24h range.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the NY low at 74,251 breaks the higher-low chain built from the London low
A close above the lower-high line and 74,785 eases the pullback read, with the 75,000 round number next
A reclaim of the 75,474 NY high puts the 75,597 Sunday bounce high back in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday higher lows, momentum fading below NY high · RSI 47 · price 74,624.82
Higher-low chain from London low; lower high after NY high rejection.
The NY open low at 74,251 drew demand, and the rally stalled at the 75,474 NY high, just under the Asian and Sunday highs. A lower high at 75,005 and a swing low at 74,426 followed, leaving price near the 50% retrace of the London low–NY high leg. The higher-lows trendline is still intact, RSI(14) is neutral near 47, and macro is quiet into Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,426 swing low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the intraday higher-low chain, exposing the NY open low at 74,251
Reclaim of the 75,005 lower high reopens the 75,474 NY high and 75,597 Sunday high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HL chain from London low; NY high rejected under Asian high.
Higher lows have stacked since the 73636 London low. The NY push to the 75474 session high stalled just under the 75504 Asian high and slipped back below the 75000 round number. The pullback held the 74426 swing low, between the 50% and 61.8% of the London-NY fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50 as the market digests Friday's hot payrolls ahead of Tuesday's CPI.
Support: 74,426.04, 74,251.23, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,000.00, 75,473.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
A break of the 74426 swing low through the higher-low trendline ends the intraday HL chain
Loss of the 74251 ny open low exposes the 73636 london low
A close back above the 75000 round number reopens the 75474 session high and 75504 asian high
Fed's Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:48 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY rejection · RSI 47 · price 74,585.86
Lower highs from 75474, holding above London higher low.
The NY rally from the 74251 ny dip low, helped by a softer USD, stalled at the 75474 session high just under the 75504 Asian high. Price has since printed lower highs at 75005 and slipped back under EMA20, sitting near the 50% fib of the London low-to-NY high move (~74555) with the 74426 swing low as the nearest floor.
Support: 74,426.04, 74,251.23, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,005.40, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
A close below the 74426 swing low extends the lower-highs sequence toward the 74251 ny dip low
A reclaim of the 75005 lower high breaks the post-rejection descent; the 75474 session high caps above
Losing the 61.8% fib (~74338) and the rising support line exposes the 73636 london low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:32 UTC
Recovering from London low, NY rally rejected · RSI 53 · price 74,713.72
Higher lows since London open, pullback to 61.8% of NY rally.
After Sunday's late flush to 73,443, BTC set a London low at 73,636 and printed higher lows at 73,952 and the 74,251 NY open low, with softer USD as the backdrop. The NY rally stalled at 75,474, just under the Asian high near 75,500 and the 75,597 Sunday high. Since London close, price has slipped back below 75,000 psych and EMA20 and now sits on the 74,620 pullback low at the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,620 pullback low breaks the 61.8% NY rally fib and exposes the 74,251 ny open low
A loss of the higher-low trendline, and then the 73,636 london low, would end the intraday higher-low sequence
Recovery above 75,000 psych reopens the 75,474 ny high and 75,597 sunday high
Barkin at 17:15 UTC and Waller Tue 09:00 UTC ahead of US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HL chain from London low; NY rally rejected at session high.
Rising lows off the 73,636 London low carried the NY rally to a 75,474 session high, where supply capped the move just under the Asian high. The pullback found demand at the 74,673 swing low, near the 61.8% of the NY rally. Price is now holding just under the 75k psych level with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and the dollar softer, but there is no fresh BTC driver.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 75k psych level reopens the 75,474 session high and the 75,597 sunday high
Failure to hold the 74,673 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 74,251 NY open low
A break of the 73,636 London low would end the higher-low chain
Fed's Barkin (17:15 UTC, now) and Tue CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling below 75.5k · RSI 56 · price 74,917.50
Higher lows since 08:00 UTC; NY rally rejected under Asian high.
NY hours lifted BTC from the 74,251 higher low to a 75,474 session high, with risk-on and a softer USD in the background. That rally was rejected just under the 75,504 Asian high. The pullback held the 74,673 swing low near the 38.2–50% fib of the rally, and price is now back under the 75,000 round number with the higher-low chain from the 73,636 London low intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,504 Asian high clears the session high and opens the Sunday rebound high near 75,597
Break below the 74,673 swing low tests the rising trendline; losing the 74,251 higher low ends the chain back toward the London low
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC and Trump–Qatar headlines could jolt the USD and risk tone this hour
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the range
16:55 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from NY high · RSI 51 · price 74,762.67
Higher lows from 73,636 Asian low; rejection under Asian high.
Higher lows from the 73,636 Asian low carried price to a 75,474 NY high, just under the 75,504 Asian high, before a sharp 15:00 UTC rejection. The pullback is holding the 74,673 pullback low near the 61.8% level of the NY rally fib, with price on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 51. A softer USD has not yet carried price through the Asian high ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,673 pullback low exposes the 74,251 higher low and the rising trendline
Reclaim of the 75,003 london high puts the 75,474 ny high and 75,504 Asian high back in play
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low; lower high vs Sunday's rebound high.
Higher lows run from the 73,636 London low to the 74,251 higher low after NY open, but the NY rally rejected at the 75,474 NY high, just under the Asian high and Sunday's 75,597 rebound high. The 74,673 pullback low is holding near the 61.8% retracement of the NY leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 as USD softness on Iran-talk hopes offsets post-NFP hawkishness.
What it said to watch
Break below the 74,673 pullback low exposes the rising trendline near 74,440 and the 74,251 higher low
Loss of 74,251 breaks the higher-low chain from the 73,636 London low
M15 close back above the 75,002 prior high reopens the 75,474 NY high and the 75,597 rebound high
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London low 73636; NY rejection at 75474.
BTC has built higher lows since the London-open flush to 73636. The NY rally, helped by a softer USD and risk-on tone on Iran-talk hopes and lower yields, stalled at a 75474 session high just under the 75504 Asian high. It then reversed 450 to the 75000 round number, which is holding so far. RSI(14) is near 57 and ATR around $306 per bar, so the chart is still moving fast.
Support: 75,000.00, 74,772.00, 74,251.00
Resistance: 75,474.00, 75,597.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74251 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
A hold at 75000 or the fib 38.2 near 74772 keeps the HH/HL sequence intact
M15 close above the 75474 session high and 75504 Asian high exposes the 75597 sunday high
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC (about 1h out) could shift USD tone and this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk; positioning into it may compress the range overnight
Higher-low chain from london low, testing asian high.
London broke below the Asian range to a 73636 london low. A higher-low chain (73953, 74251) then carried NY back through the 75000 round number on a softer USD. Price is pressing the 75474 session high just under the 75597 asian high, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 75,000.00, 74,251.23, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,473.88, 75,596.75, 76,005.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75597 asian high extends the higher-low chain toward the 76005 sunday high
Rejection at the session high and loss of the 75000 round number put the 74251 higher low and rising trendline back in play
Break below the 73636 london low invalidates the recovery structure
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger rate-risk event
15:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, HH/HL since London open · RSI 68 · price 75,359.01
Higher highs and higher lows off 73636, pressing Asia high.
NY session extended a higher-high, higher-low chain off the 73636 London low. Price cleared the 75002 prior high and retraced most of the Asia decline as the USD softened on risk-on flows. It is now pressing the 75504 Asia high, with the 75597 weekend high just above, and RSI(14) near 68 is not stretched.
Support: 75,002.40, 74,251.23, 73,635.91
Resistance: 75,503.85, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75504 asia high clears the session high, with the 75597 weekend high the next cap
Rejection at the asia high and a slip back below the 75002 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 74251 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the higher-low trendline from the 73636 london low
Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD tone ahead of Tuesday's CPI
15:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the London open low · RSI 66 · price 75,078.32
Higher lows since 73,636; NY broke the 75,002 prior high.
After Sunday's flush to 73,443 and an Asia-session grind lower, BTC put in its london low at 73,636 and has since built a higher-low chain, with the ny low at 74,251 holding on rising support. During NY hours, with USD the weakest major on risk-on flows, price cleared the 75,002 prior high to a 75,178 session high. RSI(14) is near 66, not stretched, and the asia high at 75,503 is the next overhead reference.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold back above the 75,002 prior high turns the NY breakout into a false break
M15 close below the ny low at 74,251 breaks rising support and the higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 75,178 session high brings the 75,503 asia high into play
Barkin at 17:15 UTC could shift the USD tone; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
15:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 62 · price 74,734.70
HL chain from 73,636 swing low, highs capped near 75,000.
The rebound from the 73,636 swing low near London open has printed a higher-low chain. Lows ran from the prior hl at 73,953 to the latest higher low at 74,251 on rising trendline support, while sellers rejected price twice at the 75,000 session high. Price is consolidating between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the 75,597–73,636 drop, with RSI(14) at 62 and a softer USD on Monday lending a mild lift.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,000 session high breaks the cap and opens the 75,597 swing high
Loss of the 74,251 higher low breaks the trendline; failure at the 73,953 prior hl then exposes the 73,636 swing low
Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's US CPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
NY session range 74,250–75,000 with a rising low chain.
Sunday evening's flush to 73,443 was retraced, and London set the session low at 73,636. A higher low followed at 73,950, and the NY low at 74,250 held near the 50–61.8% retracement of the London leg. Price is capped below the 75,000 session high as USD softens on the day, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,000 session high breaks the NY range and brings the 75,504 Asian high into play
Failure to hold the 74,250 NY low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 73,950 higher low and the 73,636 London low
Goolsbee and Barkin Fed-speak this afternoon could shift the read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Higher lows from the London low; lower highs since the 12:45 UTC session high.
The rebound from the 73,636 London low formed a higher-low chain into the 75,002 session high at 12:45 UTC. NY hours have since printed lower highs, and price has eased back to the 38.2% fib near 74,480, just above the 74,403 NY low and the rising trendline off the 73,953 higher low. RSI(14) is neutral near 57, and broad USD softness on the day has not added follow-through.
What it said to watch
A close below the 74,403 NY low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 73,953 higher low
A close above the 74,769 lower high clears the descending trendline and reopens the 75,002 session high, with the 75,504 asian high beyond
Losing 73,953 ends the higher-low sequence and returns focus to the 73,636 london low
Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC) could jolt USD and shift this read; Tuesday's 13:30 UTC CPI is the larger event risk
Higher low at 73,953, lower highs off the 75,002 session high.
London undercut the Asian low to 73,636, then set a higher low at 73,953 before the push to a 75,002 session high into NY. Supply capped that level and a run of lower highs has pulled price back to the 38.2% fib (~74,480), with price pinned between EMA20 and EMA50. RSI(14) is near 56 and ATR(14) about $268.
What it said to watch
A break of the 74,403 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 74,320 and the rising trendline
A close back above the 74,769 lower high reopens the 75,002 session high, with the 75,504 Asian high above that
Loss of the 73,953 higher low negates the recovery structure off the London low
Fed speakers Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC), digesting the strong NFP beat, could shift risk tone ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Higher lows from 73,636; lower high at 74,769 after the 75,002 rejection.
After a late-Sunday flush to 73,443, the Asian range of 74,389–75,597 broke lower and London set a session low at 73,636. A higher-low chain then lifted price to a 75,002 session high at 12:45 UTC, with a rejection near 75,000 into the first hour of NY as USD softness gave only a mild lift. A lower high at 74,769 now sits above a higher low at 74,500, which marks the 38.2% retrace of the 73,636–75,002 move.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 74,500 higher low breaks the recovery chain and exposes the 74,257 swing low
M15 close above the 74,769 lower high reopens the 75,002 session high
Loss of the 73,636 session low would extend the London downleg
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC) after the hot NFP could materially shift this read
Higher low off London low, pullback from session high.
London open swept the Asian range low to a 73,636 london low. A 73,953 higher low followed, then a push to a 75,002 session high that was rejected into the NY open. Price is back at the 74,500 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace of the move, with RSI(14) neutral around 56 and Friday's hot NFP still the macro backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,500 swing low exposes the 73,953 higher low and the 61.8% retrace near 74,160
Reclaim of the 75,002 session high puts the 75,504 asian high back in play
Loss of the 73,636 london low would break the intraday higher-low sequence
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and Barkin (17:15 UTC) today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 62 · price 74,716.72
HH/HL chain off 73,636 London low, stalling at 75,002 session high.
A Sunday-evening flush to 73,443 and a steady Asia-session slide bottomed at the London low of 73,636, a sweep just under the Asian range low. Since then higher lows at 73,953, 74,257 and 74,501 have lifted price to a 75,002 session high, and the 74,501 swing low held near the 38.2% of the London rally fib. The hawkish post-NFP backdrop is the macro headwind behind the overnight selling, and price still sits well below the 75,504 Asian high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,002 session high opens the 75,504 Asian high
Break of the 74,501 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 74,257 higher low in play
Loss of the 73,636 London low invalidates the recovery read
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee (15:00) and the Trump-Qatar meeting (17:00) could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's 13:30 UTC CPI
13:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend since London open, pausing below 75k · RSI 56 · price 74,634.81
HH/HL chain off the 73,636 session low; first pullback from the 75,002 session high.
After the London-open session low at 73,636, BTC built a higher-low chain (73,953, 74,257) into a 75,002 session high. The 12:45 UTC bar was capped there, and price has faded to 74,635 with RSI(14) cooling to ~56. The pullback is nearing the London rally fib 38.2 at 74,480 and the higher-low line near 74,450, while the Asian high at 75,504 and the 75,597 rebound high from Sunday night's flush cap overhead as post-NFP hawkish repricing weighs into Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
Break below the 74,257 higher low ends the London HH/HL chain and exposes the 73,636 session low
M15 close above the 75,002 session high reopens the 75,504 Asian high and 75,597 rebound high
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15), plus the 17:00 Trump-Qatar meeting, could shift USD-driven risk tone during NY hours
13:05 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows in place · RSI 61 · price 74,816.61
HH/HL off the London low, stalling at the 61.8% retrace.
Recovery from the 73,636 London-morning low printed a higher low at 73,952, then broke the 74,631 prior high. That leg has retraced to the 61.8% of the Asian-session decline, with a rejection just above the 75k high. RSI(14) is near 61 with no stretch, against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop for risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75k high opens a test of the 75,504 asian high
Loss of the 74,631 prior high puts the 74,257 swing low back in play; a break of the 73,952 higher low unwinds the recovery
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) around the NY open could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major risk
12:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 61 · price 74,796.63
HH/HL chain off the 73,636 day low, pressing through the London range top.
Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to 73,443 failed to reclaim the 75,504 swing high, and Asia ground lower to a 73,636 day low at London open. Since then London has built higher lows at 73,953 and 74,257 and is pushing above the 74,710 range top into the 61.8% fib of that decline near 74,790. RSI(14) sits near 61, so the move is not stretched, and there is no fresh BTC-specific driver against the hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
What it said to watch
Holding above the 74,710 range top on a retest keeps the London HH/HL chain intact; a slip back inside reopens the 74,257 higher low
An M15 close above the 75,000 round number exposes the 75,504 swing high
Loss of rising support and the 74,257 higher low puts the 73,636 day low back in play
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) around the NY open could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend paused, basing in London · RSI 51 · price 74,404.06
London range 73,950–74,705 above the session low after the Asia-session decline.
After Sunday's flush to the 73,443 Sunday low, the Asia session ground lower from the 75,504 Asia high to a 73,636 London low at the open. London has since built a 73,950–74,705 range: buyers defended the range floor three times, and the 11:15 UTC spike to the London high was rejected inside the 50–61.8% fib of the Asia decline. Price is above EMA20 but just under EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, as the hot post-NFP backdrop keeps a lid on risk appetite.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 74,705 London high breaks the range and puts the 75,000 round number and the 61.8% of the Asia decline fib in play
A break of the 73,950 range floor exposes the 73,636 London low, and below that the 73,443 Sunday low
Rejection again at the London high keeps the range read intact into the NY session
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read, with US CPI due Tue 13:30 UTC
12:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 52 · price 74,266.21
Lower highs through Asia; higher lows since London open inside a 73,950–74,705 range.
After the Sunday-evening flush to 73,443, Asia carved lower highs off the 75,504 asian high. London opened with a sweep of the Asian low to the 73,636 london low, and price has since held a range with higher lows off the 73,952 range low. The late-morning spike to the 74,705 session high met rejection just under the 61.8% retrace and faded to 74,266; RSI(14) is neutral near 52 against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,705 session high clears the range top and the 61.8% retrace, putting the 75,504 asian high in view
Close below the 73,952 range low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 73,636 london low
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read; US CPI is due Tue 13:30 UTC
11:47 UTC
Down from Asian high, stabilising in late London · RSI 58 · price 74,456.00
London range 73,950–74,705 with a higher low at 73,952.
Sunday evening's flush to 73,443 was reclaimed, but Asia rolled over from the 75,504 Asian high into a 73,636 London session low as the hawkish post-NFP backdrop weighed on risk. London has since built a range with a higher low at 73,952. The 11:15 UTC spike to the 74,705 session high met rejection, leaving price between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Asia-London decline and just under EMA50 ahead of the NY open.
What it said to watch
A close above the 74,705 session high breaks the London range and brings the 75,000 round number into view, with the 75,504 Asian high above that.
A break of the 73,952 higher low and the higher-low line reopens the 73,636 session low.
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift the USD and risk tone and break the range.
11:32 UTC
Down from Asia high, basing since London open · RSI 54 · price 74,411.05
Higher lows above 73636, capped at 74631–74705.
After the Sunday-evening flush low at 73443, Asia printed lower highs from the asia high at 75504 into a london low of 73636. Higher lows have formed since, with twin lows near 73955, and the 11:15 spike high at 74705 faded back under the 09:00 swing high at 74631. Price sits near the 38.2% level of the asia high–london low fib, above EMA20 but below EMA50, with Friday's hawkish NFP still a headwind for risk.
Support: 73,955.00, 73,636.00, 73,443.00
Resistance: 74,631.00, 74,705.00, 75,504.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74705 spike high and the 74631 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% fib near 74790
Failure to hold the 73955 twin lows exposes the 73636 london low, then the 73443 flush low
A loss of the higher lows trendline from the london low invalidates the basing read
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 UTC and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC in the first hours of NY session could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger scheduled risk for the range
11:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 74,063.44
Lower highs from 74,631 pressing on a flat 73,950 base.
Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to 73,443 was bought back to 75,597, but the Asia session topped at 75,504 and the slide ran into a fresh day low at 73,636 at London open. The rebound stalled at the 74,631 London high, close to the 50% retrace of the Asia-London drop. Lower highs since have compressed price onto a 73,950 base below both EMAs, with Friday's hot 165K NFP still weighing on risk.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 73,950 base exposes the 73,636 day low and the 73,443 sunday low
An M15 close above the 74,245 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence; the 74,631 london high and 75,000 psych sit above
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) on the NFP beat could reset the range around NY open
11:04 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce fading · RSI 48 · price 74,030.47
Lower highs from 75504; compressing 73956–74307 under the 50% retrace.
After Sunday's flush to the 73443 spike low recovered to 75597, Asia printed a steady lower-high sequence into a 73636 asian low at London open. The London bounce met rejection at 74631, the london high and near the 50% fib of that drop, and has since faded toward the 73956 swing low under a series of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 48 against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
Support: 73,955.55, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,307.17, 74,630.81, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 73956 swing low exposes the 73636 asian low and the 73443 spike low
Close above the 74307 lower high and the asia downtrend line invalidates the lower-high read; the 74631 london high and the 75000 round number sit above
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 UTC and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC, early NY hours, could shift this read
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 49 · price 74,037.46
Lower highs since Sunday's spike high; London bounce rejected at 50% retrace.
Since the 75597 spike high, Sunday night's flush to the 73443 Sunday low has been followed by a run of lower highs. Asia ground down to a 73636 swing low at London open, and the bounce stalled at the 74631 London high on the 50% retrace. Price is now compressing between the 73956 session low and a 74245–74307 intraday cap, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
Support: 73,955.55, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,307.17, 74,630.81
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73956 session low exposes the 73636 swing low and then the 73443 Sunday low
Close above the 74307 intraday cap and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 74631 London high is next
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC in NY hours could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger macro risk for range expansion
Lower highs since the Asian high; tight range 74,000–74,300 after the London bounce failed.
After Sunday evening's spike to 73,443, BTC printed lower highs from the 75,504 Asian high and swept the Asian low at London open, setting a 73,636 session low. The London bounce stalled at 74,631, and price now sits in a 74,000–74,300 range with the higher low holding near the 61.8% retrace, below EMA20 and with RSI(14) near 46, against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,000 higher low reopens the 73,636 session low
Close above the 74,300 range top and the 74,631 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Below the session low, the 73,443 spike low is the next reference; the 75,504 Asian high caps the broader intraday move
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 74,064.43
Lower-high chain from 75504; London bounce rejected near 50% retrace.
After Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to the sunday low at 73443, the rebound stalled at the 75504 asian high. Since then the chart has printed lower highs, a weak tone consistent with the hawkish post-NFP backdrop. London open dipped below the Asian range to the 73636 london low, but the bounce was rejected at the 74631 london high, near the 50% retrace of the 75504–73636 leg, and price is back on the 74000 round number below EMA20.
Support: 74,000.00, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,630.81, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74000 round number exposes the 73636 london low; a break there brings the 73443 sunday low into play
M15 close above the 74631 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
Recovery toward the 75504 asian high needed to neutralise the post-flush structure
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 UTC and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs broken at London open; higher low at 74003 inside a 73636–74631 range.
Sunday's late flush to the 73443 sunday low set the window floor, and the Asian session printed lower highs from the 75504 asian high down to the 73636 london low. London opened by breaking the asia downtrend line and ran to the 74631 london high, then rejected back to the 74003 pullback low, about 63% of the London bounce fib. Price now sits mid-range near 74210, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at ~51. The hawkish post-NFP backdrop is unchanged, and the last 24h brought no fresh crypto-specific news.
Support: 74,002.50, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,630.81, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74631 london high extends the London breakout and opens the 75504 asian high
Failure to hold the 74003 pullback low reopens the 73636 london low and the 73443 sunday low
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Lower highs from 75,504; London bounce capped at 74,631.
BTC fell through the Asia session from the 75,504 high to a session low of 73,636 at London open. The bounce stalled at 74,631, just above the 50% retracement of the Asia leg, and price now sits back under the ema20 near 74,240 with RSI(14) neutral at 46. The hot NFP backdrop keeps risk tone heavy into Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,631 bounce high and the 61.8% fib at 74,790 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 74,000 psych level exposes the 73,636 session low; a break there opens the Sunday-evening spike low at 73,443
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
09:33 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce fading · RSI 40 · price 74,173.31
Asia printed lower highs into a 73,636 low; London bounce capped near the 50% retrace, higher low at 74,002.
The Asia session extended the selloff that followed Sunday's late spike, stepping down in lower highs from 75,504 to a 73,636 Asia low, with the hawkish NFP backdrop still weighing on BTC. The London open bounce met rejection at 74,631 near the 50% retrace of the Asia selloff, and the pullback is holding a 74,002 swing low. Price sits back below the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40.
What it said to watch
Break below the 74,002 swing low puts the 73,636 asia low and the 73,443 spike low back in play
Close above the 74,631 london high clears the 50% retrace and opens the 75,000 round number
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) plus the Trump–Qatar meeting (17:00 GMT) could materially shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC
Lower highs from 75,504; rebound from 73,636 capped near 50% retracement.
The overnight decline from the 75,504 high bottomed at the 73,636 session low into London open, with the hawkish post-NFP backdrop still weighing on BTC. The rebound stalled at the 74,631 bounce high, just above the 50% retracement. Price is holding near the fib 38.2 at 74,350, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 74,154 pullback low would expose the 73,636 session low
An M15 close above the 74,631 bounce high would bring the fib 61.8 at 74,790 and the 75,002 lower high into play
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
Lower highs since 75,597; higher low at 74,060 after Asian-low sweep.
An Asia-session grind of lower highs took price to 73,636. London open swept the Asian low there and reversed about 840 dollars, breaking the Asia downtrend line and reclaiming EMA20. Price is now pressing the london high at 74,474, just under the 74,569 lower high, which is also the 50% fib of the Asia leg. RSI(14) sits neutral near 49, price remains below EMA50, and the hot-NFP backdrop is unchanged with no fresh BTC news.
What it said to watch
Close above the 74,569 lower high (Asia leg 50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 75,002 swing high
Loss of the 74,060 higher low puts the 73,636 session low and the 73,443 sunday low from the Sunday-evening flush back in play
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) reacting to the 165K NFP could shift risk tone during NY hours
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off london low · RSI 44 · price 74,181.31
Lower highs from 75,504; asian low reclaimed.
Asia session ground lower from 75,504 in a lower-high chain. London open broke the asian low at 73,911 and printed a london low at 73,636, then reclaimed it. The bounce poked through the asia downtrend line but stalled near the ema20 around 74,240, under the 74,307 lower high, with RSI(14) near 44 against the hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
What it said to watch
Close back below the asian low at 73,911 turns the reclaim into a fresh leg lower; losing the london low at 73,636 exposes Sunday's 73,443 spike low
A close above the 74,307 lower high and the 38.2% fib near 74,350 breaks the lower-high chain; the 74,568 swing high and 50% retrace sit next
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 40 · price 74,080.42
Lower highs since Asia, asian low broken then reclaimed.
Sunday's late flush to the 73443 flush low was followed by a rebound that stalled at 75597. Asia then printed a chain of lower highs from the 75504 asian high, and early London broke the 73912 asian low down to a 73636 session low before the latest bar snapped back above it. Price sits at the 23.6% fib of the drop near 74077 and is testing the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs against the hot-NFP backdrop.
Support: 73,911.60, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,158.33, 74,568.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 73912 asian low turns the bounce into noise; loss of the 73636 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 73443 flush low
Clearing the 74158 bounce high, then the 74569 swing high at the 50% fib, would break the lower-highs sequence; the 75504 asian high sits above
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could shift the read during NY hours; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 73,798.73
The Sunday-evening flush to 73443 retraced to a 75597 rebound high. Asia then printed a steady chain of lower highs under the descending trendline, extending to a 73636 session low at the London open. RSI(14) is around 36, soft but not oversold, against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop with no fresh crypto-specific headlines.
Support: 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,120.37, 74,568.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73636 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 73443 flush low
Recovery above the 74120 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asia-session sequence; the 74569 swing high is the next reference
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift this read; US CPI on Tue at 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk
08:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 28 · price 73,826.70
Post-flush rebound failed; LH/LL chain into London open.
Late Sunday's flush to a 73,443 spike low drew a rebound capped at the 75,597 rebound high. Price then printed lower highs and lower lows under a descending trendline through the Asia session, and early London trades near the 73,661 session low with RSI(14) sub-30. The hawkish post-NFP backdrop is the macro headwind.
What it said to watch
Break of the 73,661 session low exposes the 73,443 spike low
M15 close above the 74,307 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 74,569 swing high and the descending trendline sit next
A reclaim of the 75,597 rebound high would negate the post-flush downtrend read
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could shift the read in NY hours
07:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 73,779.75
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the 75597 rebound high.
After Sunday's late flush to the 73443 sunday wick and the rebound to 75597, the Asia session printed a steady lower-high trendline from 75504. Price ground down to a 73716 session low ahead of London open, and the last bounce stalled at the 74120 minor high. The hot NFP backdrop and ETF outflows offer no offset to the selling, and RSI(14) at 31 is soft but not yet at an extreme.
Support: 73,715.82, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,120.37, 74,307.17, 74,656.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73716 session low exposes the 73443 sunday wick
Recovery above the 74307 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the Asia sequence
A reclaim of the 50% retrace of the 75597–73716 leg at 74656 neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC, plus the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 26 · price 73,856.66
LH/LL chain from Asian high, testing lows.
BTC has stepped lower through the Asia session from the 75,504 Asian high, capped by a falling trendline and printing a fresh session low at 73,716 into London open. The Sunday low at 73,443 from the late-Sunday flush sits just below. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme, and Friday's hot NFP leaves the macro backdrop heavy for risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,307 lower high breaks the Asia LH/LL chain; the 74,569 swing high and falling trendline sit above it
Loss of the 73,443 sunday low takes price to fresh lows for the window
A close back above 74,610, the 50% of the Asian high to session low decline (fib), would mark a deeper retracement
Fed speakers during NY hours (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; digest's $78–79k levels are stale versus the chart
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 30 · price 73,896.62
LH/LL chain after Sunday-evening flush; price pressing the Asian low ahead of London.
The Sunday-evening flush to the 73443 flush low recovered only to 75597. Asia then set a lower high at the 75504 Asian high and ground down along a descending trendline into a fresh Asian low at 73800 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 30. The swing high at 74569 and the lower high at 74307 have both capped bounces, and the hawkish post-NFP backdrop is still weighing on BTC.
Support: 73,799.73, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,307.17, 74,568.88, 75,503.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74307 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the intraday LH chain
Failure to hold the 73800 Asian low exposes the 73443 flush low
Reclaim of the 74569 swing high would put the 75504 Asian high back in view
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
07:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 74,289.19
Lower-high chain off Asian high; price testing the descending trendline.
The Asia session printed lower highs from the 75,504 Asian high through the 75,002 lower high to a 73,912 session low. That extends the late-Sunday spike low at 73,443, with the hawkish post-NFP backdrop offering no relief. London open has price pressing the descending trendline near 74,290 with RSI(14) ~35, and the 74,569 swing high sits at the 38.2% fib.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,569 swing high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection at the descending trendline keeps the Asia sequence intact; failure to hold the 73,912 session low reopens the 73,443 spike low
Reclaim of the 75,002 lower high would shift the read back toward the 75,504 Asian high
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
Lower highs and lower lows since the 03:30 UTC Asian high; now probing the post-spike rebound base.
Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to the 73,443 spike low recovered to 75,597. Since the 75,504 Asian high, the Asia session has printed a steady chain of lower highs under a descending line, with the latest at 74,569. Price has slipped below the 74,000 round number into the 73,955 rebound base ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 26, and the digest's hawkish post-NFP Fed backdrop fits the drift.
What it said to watch
A sustained break of the 73,955 rebound base exposes the 73,443 spike low
An M15 close back above the 74,569 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 74,000 round number would ease near-term pressure; the 75,504 Asian high caps the session range
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could shift hike pricing and this read during NY hours
06:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 30 · price 74,229.25
Lower-high/lower-low chain off the 75,504 Asia high; early-Asia low broken.
Asia session has stepped lower off the 75,504 Asia high, broken the 74,389 early-Asia low and printed a swing low at 74,192. That sits just under the 61.8% retrace of the rebound from Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to 73,443. RSI(14) is near 30 and price trades below both EMAs, with the tone still heavy after Friday's hot NFP and the ETF outflow streak.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 74,389 asia low and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the Asia slide
A break above the 74,569 lower high ends the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 74,192 swing low exposes the 74,000 round number and the 73,443 sunday low
London open is under 90 minutes away; Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could shift hike pricing and this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 74,428.03
Lower-high chain since 02:30 UTC; small bounce off session low.
Sunday's 75,600–76,100 range broke at 21:45 UTC in a flush to the sunday low at 73,443. The rebound stalled at 75,597, then Asia printed lower highs at the 75,504 asian high and the 75,040 lower high before setting a 74,221 session low. Price sits just under the 74,569 bounce high and the lower-high line, with RSI(14) near 31 and the post-NFP firm-USD backdrop still weighing.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,569 bounce high and the lower-high line puts the asian drop 38.2% (~74,710) and the 75,040 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 74,221 session low exposes the 74,000 round number, then the 73,443 sunday low
London open is the first test of the Asian range; a break of the 75,504 asian high would invalidate the lower-high read
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's 13:30 UTC CPI
06:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 30 · price 74,405.06
Lower-high/lower-low chain inside the post-flush range, pressing the Asia low.
The 21:45 UTC weekly-open flush to the 73,443 flush low bounced to a 75,597 rebound high. Asia then printed lower highs off the 75,504 Asia high and set a fresh 74,221 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 30 and price below both EMAs. Late in the Asian session, the hawkish post-NFP backdrop is still weighing.
What it said to watch
Break below the 74,221 Asia low extends the lower-low chain; the 73,443 flush low is the next reference
A close above the 75,040 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Reclaim of the 75,504 Asia high and 75,597 rebound high negates the intraday downtrend read
London open within the hour is the first test of the Asian range extremes
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift the read via Dec hike pricing
05:47 UTC
Downtrend through the Asia session · RSI 35 · price 74,337.13
Lower highs and lower lows since the 75,504 Asia high.
The late-Sunday flush to the 73,443 spike low was fully retraced to 75,597. The Asia session has since stepped down from the 75,504 Asia high through the 75,040 lower high to a fresh session low at 74,221, under both EMAs. There is no fresh crypto news. Friday's hot NFP and wage beat remain the backdrop, and supply has capped each bounce along the lower-highs line.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 74,654 broken low and the lower-highs line would interrupt the lower-high chain
A break of the 74,221 session low exposes the 74,081 swing low from the post-flush base
Losing 74,081 brings the 73,443 spike low back into view
London open is the next session test of the Asian low
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin later today could move the hawkish-Fed read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
05:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 32 · price 74,475.98
Lower highs from 75,504; Asia floor near 74,650 broken.
The late-Sunday flush to 73,443 rebounded to 75,597. Since then, Asia has stepped down from the 75,504 Asia high through a 75,040 lower high and has now broken the 74,650 prior floor. Late in Asia, price is sitting on the session low and the 50% retrace of the rebound fib near 74,520, with RSI(14) at 32 and the hawkish post-NFP backdrop weighing ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 74,650 prior floor and the descending lower-high trendline would negate the Asia breakdown
Failure to hold the 74,421 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 74,266 and then the 74,081 swing low
London open liquidity could test whether the 75,040 lower high still caps any bounce
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 74,518.93
Lower-high chain inside Asia range, testing session low.
Sunday evening's flush to the 73,443 flush low recovered to a 75,597 rebound high. Price has since put in lower highs from the 75,504 session high and is now pressing the 74,478 session low, which sits right on the 50% retrace of that rebound, with RSI(14) near 36 and no oversold extreme. Friday's hot NFP and wage beat keep the macro tone heavy into Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74,389 swing low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 74,266 and the 73,443 flush low
M15 close above the 75,000 lower high breaks the descending trendline and negates the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 75,504 session high and 75,597 rebound high would restore the post-flush recovery read
London open in under 3h, then Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin later Monday
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 74,389–75,504; lower-high sequence from 75,504.
Late Sunday's flush to the 73,443 spike low reversed to a 75,597 spike high. The Asian session then built a 74,389–75,504 range, and successive lower highs since the 75,504 Asian high have pushed price into the lower half. Price is pressing the 74,654 swing low below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 as Friday's hot payrolls keep a hawkish-Fed headwind on crypto.
What it said to watch
Break of the 74,654 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib area near 74,520 and the 74,389 asian low
M15 close above the 75,040 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 75,504 asian high
Loss of the asian low puts the 73,443 spike low back in view
Fedspeak during NY hours (Bowman, Goolsbee) ahead of Tuesday's US CPI could shift this read
Asia session lower highs and higher lows inside the 74389–75504 asian range.
The 21:45 UTC flush from 75527 to the 73443 spike low reversed to a 75597 rebound high, with no fresh BTC headline behind it against a hawkish post-NFP backdrop. Through the Asia session price has compressed between the 75504 asian high and the 74389 asian low. The 75040 lower high caps the range, rising lows hold near the 74706 session low, and price sits on the 38.2% rebound fib near 74775.
Support: 74,705.73, 74,389.08, 73,443.12
Resistance: 75,040.36, 75,503.85, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
Close below the 74706 session low and the rising lows line exposes the 74389 asian low, then the 61.8% rebound fib near 74266
Close above the 75040 lower high reopens the 75504 asian high and the 75597 rebound high
Retest of the 73443 spike low would invalidate the recovery read
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) on the 165K NFP could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Lower highs and higher lows since the 73,443 flush low.
Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to the 73,443 flush low was retraced to the 75,597 rebound high. Asia has since compressed into lower highs and higher lows between the 75,504 Asia high and the 74,705 higher low, with price pivoting just under 75,000 psych. RSI(14) sits near 47, price is below both EMAs, and Friday's hot NFP keeps the hawkish-Fed backdrop in place into Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,705 higher low breaks the contraction and exposes the 74,389 Asia low
Failure to hold the 74,389 Asia low brings the 73,443 flush low back into view
Close above the lower-highs line and the 75,504 Asia high reopens the 75,597 rebound high
Repeated rejection at 75,000 psych keeps price capped inside the contraction
Fedspeak today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows under lower highs through Asia, range 74389–75597.
Sunday's 21:45 UTC flush to a 73443 spike low was retraced within 90 minutes to a 75597 rebound high. With no fresh BTC headlines and Friday's hot NFP keeping the backdrop heavy, the Asia session has compressed. Lows are rising (74389 asian low, 74597, 74706 swing low) against lower highs at 75597 and 75504. Price sits at 74921, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 74,705.73, 74,389.08, 73,443.12
Resistance: 75,040.36, 75,503.85, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74706 swing low exposes the 74389 asian low, near the 50–61.8% rebound fib.
M15 close above the 75040 minor high, then the 75504 lower high, breaks the compression toward the 75597 rebound high.
A loss of rising lows support turns the post-sweep rebound into a lower-high sequence.
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin speak later today; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Late Sunday's flush to the 73,443 crash low recovered to a 75,597 bounce high. The Asian session has since compressed into a 74,389–75,504 range with higher lows, under a hawkish post-NFP backdrop and no fresh BTC news. Price is back on the 74,746 swing low, the 38.2% crash bounce retrace and the higher lows line, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
What it said to watch
Break of the 74,746 swing low and the higher lows line exposes the 74,389 asian low, with the 50% crash bounce retrace near 74,520 in between
Reclaim of the 75,000 round number and a close above the 75,504 asian high would reopen the 75,597 bounce high
Failure below the asian low leaves the 73,443 crash low as the next reference
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin later Monday, ahead of Tuesday's US CPI, could materially shift this read
03:48 UTC
Sideways after Sunday flush, below EMA20 and EMA50 · RSI 46 · price 74,949.46
Contracting range: lower highs from 75,597, higher lows from 74,389.
Sunday's late flush to the 73,443 spike low reversed within the hour, and the Asia session has since compressed between the 74,389 Asian low and the 75,504 Asian high, with lower highs and higher lows. Price is just under the ema20 near 75,058 after a 03:15 UTC swing low at 74,756. RSI(14) is neutral at 46, and Friday's hot NFP keeps the macro backdrop heavy into Tuesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,504 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 75,597 rebound high
Loss of the 74,756 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and reopens the 74,389 Asian low
Failure to reclaim the ema20 near 75,058 keeps price capped in the lower half of the range
Fedspeak later Monday (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and ETF-flow headlines could shift the read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Weekend range broken lower, Asia compressing below old range floor.
A Sunday-evening flush broke the 75,590–76,125 weekend range and printed a 73,443 flush low. The recovery stalled at 75,597, a retest and rejection of the old range floor, with no fresh BTC news and the hot NFP backdrop still weighing. The Asia session is compressing between a lower high at 75,504 and rising lows at 74,389 and 74,756. Price sits under the ema20 near 75,065, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
What it said to watch
Close below the 74,756 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 74,390 asian low
Close above the 75,504 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 75,595 range floor back into play
Loss of the 74,390 asian low reopens the 73,443 flush low area
Fedspeak from Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin today, ahead of Tuesday's US CPI, could shift this read
03:18 UTC
Post-flush recovery stalling, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 74,839.58
Contracting pennant: lower highs from 75,597, higher lows from 74,389.
Sunday's late flush to the 73,443 flush low recovered to a 75,597 Asian high, and the Asian session has since printed a lower high at 75,504 against higher lows from 74,389, forming a contracting pennant. Price has slipped back under the 75,000 round number and is retesting pennant support near 74,840. RSI(14) sits at 42, with Friday's hot NFP keeping BTC heavy into CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,597 higher low breaks pennant support and exposes the 74,389 Asian low
Loss of the 74,389 Asian low leaves the 73,443 flush low as the next reference
Reclaim of the 75,000 round number and a close above the 75,504 lower high (pennant resistance) would void the rollover read, with the 75,597 Asian high above
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) speak Monday, and US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia higher lows from 74389, capped under 75504–75597.
A thin-liquidity sweep late Sunday took BTC from 75527 to 73443 before a sharp rebound high at 75597. The Asia session has since held a rising line of higher lows from the 74389 session low, near the 50–61.8% retrace of that rebound, but met rejection at the 75504 session high. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53, price is above EMA20 but below EMA50, and the hawkish post-NFP Fed tone has so far capped the recovery under the pre-crash shelf.
Support: 75,018.38, 74,596.85, 74,389.08
Resistance: 75,503.85, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75597 rebound high reclaims the pre-crash shelf and opens 75880
Loss of the 75018 higher low and the rising line breaks the Asia recovery structure, exposing the 74597 swing low
Break below the 74389 session low resumes the post-sweep downside
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday from 13:40 UTC could shift this read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Asia higher lows under a lower high; coiling beneath the old weekend floor.
The late-Sunday flush to 73,443 swept the weekend range low and was mostly retraced into Asia. Since then, 75,500–75,600 has capped twice: the 75,504 session high and the 75,597 rebound high, which sits at the old weekend floor. Asia has printed higher lows at 74,389, 74,597 and the 74,950 pivot. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and price is hugging EMA50 around 75,310. There is no fresh BTC headline, and the hawkish post-NFP backdrop is intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,597 rebound high reclaims the old weekend floor and opens the 75,900 area
Rejection again at the 75,504 session high keeps the lower-high sequence and compression intact
Loss of the 74,950 pivot and the higher-low trendline exposes the 74,597 higher low, which is near the 50% flush rebound fib
A break below 74,597 shifts focus back toward the 73,443 flush low
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40 UTC Mon) and Tue CPI are the next macro catalysts; a hawkish read adds pressure on rebounds
02:33 UTC
Recovering from Sunday flush, below prior range · RSI 53 · price 75,405.96
V-recovery with rising lows, capped under 75,597 range floor.
A 21:45 UTC Sunday flush to 73,443 has been retraced to about the 78.6% level of the drop. The 23:15 UTC rebound stalled at the 75,597 range floor. The Asia session is printing rising lows at 74,389, 74,597 and 75,018, and price is now pressing the Asia high at 75,471, with RSI(14) neutral at 53. There is no fresh BTC news; the post-NFP hawkish-Fed tone remains the backdrop.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 75,597 range floor reopens the pre-drop range, with the 75,880 swing high next
Losing the 75,018 higher low and the rising lows line exposes the 74,597 swing low and the 74,389 Asia low
Fed's Bowman and Goolsbee (Mon) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range, below the broken weekend range floor.
A 21:30 UTC flush broke the 75,600–76,100 weekend range and tagged a flush low at 73,443 before rebounding to retest the old range floor at 75,597, where it was rejected. Asia session is coiling between the asian low at 74,587 and the asian high at 75,397, with RSI(14) neutral near 51. No fresh BTC news, and the post-NFP hawkish backdrop remains the macro overhang.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 75,397 puts the range floor at 75,597 back in play, and reclaiming it opens the day high at 76,125
Failure to hold the asian low at 74,587 breaks the higher-low chain toward the swing low at 74,389
Rising trendline from 74,389 and falling trendline from 75,597 converge near 75,000–75,200; a break of either resolves the compression
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15) could reprice the hawkish read ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Lower highs vs higher low inside the 74,389–75,597 post-spike range.
The weekend 75,570–76,125 range gave way around the Sunday evening open in a spike to the 73,443 spike low. There was no fresh BTC news, so Friday's hawkish NFP/wage backdrop remains the standing driver. Into the Asia session price is coiling between the 74,389 swing low and the 75,597 rebound top. Lower highs at 75,597, the 75,397 prior high and the 75,238 lower high sit against a 74,597 higher low; RSI(14) is near 49 and price is pinned at EMA20 under EMA50.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 75,238 lower high breaks the descending trendline and exposes the 75,397 prior high, then the 75,597 rebound top.
Failure to hold the 74,597 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 74,389 swing low; below that sits the 73,443 spike low.
ATR near $340 per bar is still elevated after the spike, so wide intraday swings remain in play.
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC), Goolsbee and Barkin speak later Monday. US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read.
Contracting range: lower highs vs higher lows after the Sunday-evening drop.
A Sunday-evening flush to the 73,443 flash low was bought back to a 75,597 rebound high. Early Asia session trade is now compressing between a 75,397 lower high and a 74,597 higher low, holding just above EMA20 but below EMA50. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is still elevated, with no fresh BTC headlines against the hawkish post-NFP backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,397 lower high, then the 75,597 rebound high, breaks the compression to the upside
Failure to hold the 74,597 higher low exposes the 74,389 pullback low, with the 73,443 flash low below
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak later Monday ahead of Tuesday's CPI; a hawkish read on the 165K NFP could reassert pressure
Weekend range broken lower; post-flush range 74389–75597 with a lower high.
A late-Sunday flush broke the 75590–76125 weekend range and tagged a 73443 flush low. The rebound high at 75597 stalled just under the old range floor, and the early Asia session then set a lower high at 75397 that was rejected back to about 74720, near the 38.2% of the rebound. Friday's hot NFP keeps a Fed-hawkish backdrop on BTC; RSI(14) is 43, price is below the ema20 near 74995 and ATR is elevated after the flush.
Support: 74,389.08, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,995.00, 75,396.97, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74389 swing low exposes the post-flush 73954 shelf and the 73443 flush low
A close back above the 75397 lower high and the 75597 rebound high returns price to the former weekend range floor
Holding beneath the ema20 near 74995 keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) today, and CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs vs rising higher lows below broken weekend range floor.
A late-Sunday flush from 75,527 to the 73,443 flush low broke the weekend range floor near 75,600. The rebound stalled at the 75,597 rebound high, and the 75,397 lower high was rejected early in the Asia session. Price is compressing between that falling trendline and a rising higher-low line from the 74,389 swing low, sitting just under the ema20 with RSI(14) near 46, while the hot-NFP, hawkish-Fed backdrop keeps BTC heavy.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,397 lower high breaks the compression and reopens the 75,597 rebound high
Close below the 74,864 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 74,389 swing low
Loss of the 74,389 swing low puts the 73,443 flush low back in view
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee speak Monday on the hot NFP, and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Sharp late-Sunday selloff, partial recovery into Asia · RSI 50 · price 75,171.22
Higher lows off 74,389, capped below broken range floor.
Sunday's 75,570–76,125 range broke at 21:45 UTC with a flush to 73,443. There was no fresh crypto headline, but Friday's hot 165K NFP leaves a hawkish backdrop. The rebound hit 75,597, the old range floor, and was rejected there. Early Asia is now printing higher lows from the 74,389 swing low (about 56% retracement of the rebound), and price is pressing the 75,207 Asia high with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,207 Asia high puts the 75,597 range floor back in play
Loss of the 74,865 higher low breaks the early-Asia trendline, exposing the 74,389 swing low
Break below 74,389 reopens the 73,443 flush low
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC ahead of Tue CPI; Fedspeak could shift this read
Range break lower, rebound rejected at old range floor, higher low at 74,389.
Sunday's 75,570–76,125 range gave way late in the session in a roughly 2,080-point flush to the 73,443 flush low, with no fresh BTC news and the hawkish NFP backdrop still hanging over the market. The rebound stalled at the old range floor near 75,597, and the pullback held the 74,389 swing low, inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the bounce. Early Asia trade is now coiling between that swing low and the 75,090 minor high, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
What it said to watch
A close below the 74,389 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline and puts the 73,443 flush low back in view
Recovery through the 75,090 minor high and then the 75,597 range floor would undo the range-break read
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC is the next scheduled US catalyst, with CPI on Tuesday as the bigger event risk
00:32 UTC
Post-flush rebound stalling below the broken range · RSI 45 · price 74,925.49
Range break, rejection at the retest high, lower high forming inside a 74,390–75,090 band.
A late-Sunday flush broke the 75,530–76,125 weekend range and tagged the 73,443 flash low. The V-rebound was rejected at the 75,597 retest high, just under the broken range low. Into early Asia, price is holding a 74,390–75,090 band, with the swing low near the 50–61.8% of the rebound fib, under a lower-high line and below both EMAs; the hot NFP / firm-USD backdrop is the only driver, with no fresh BTC news.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 75,597 retest high reclaims the broken weekend range
Loss of the 74,389 swing low exposes the 73,443 flash low
A break of the lower-high line through 75,087 eases the post-flush pressure
Fedspeak later Monday (Bowman, Goolsbee from 13:40 UTC) and Tuesday's CPI could shift this read
00:17 UTC
Post-spike rebound, capped under old range floor · RSI 45 · price 74,960.45
Sunday's 75,600–76,125 range broke late in the day: the 22:15 UTC bar spiked about 2,080 points to a 73,443 spike low. The rebound off that low stalled at 75,597, just under the old range floor. Early Asia session has printed a higher low at 74,389, near the 50% retrace of the spike rebound, with price now pressing ema20 at ~75,085 and ATR(14) blown out to ~330 against a hot-NFP, no-fresh-news backdrop.
What it said to watch
Close back above the 75,600 range floor reopens the prior 75,600–76,125 range
Failure to hold the 74,389 higher low exposes the 74,081 base low and the 73,443 spike low
Rejection again at ema20 (~75,085) keeps the rebound capped below the range floor
Fed's Bowman/Goolsbee Mon from 13:40 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Downtrend after range break, rebound fading · RSI 41 · price 74,729.70
Range break lower; rebound rejected at broken range floor.
Sunday's 75,570–76,125 range broke at 21:45 UTC in a one-bar flush to 73,443 (flush low). The rebound stalled at 75,597, right at the broken range floor, and price has slipped back to 74,730, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the rebound. RSI(14) is near 41, both EMAs sit overhead as Asia opens, and there is no fresh crypto news beyond the hawkish post-NFP USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
Hold of 74,500 (50% fib) keeps the rebound structure intact; a break exposes the 74,081 base low
Another rejection under the 75,000 round number would mark a lower high beneath the range floor
M15 close back above the 75,597 range floor neutralises the range-break read
Break of the 73,443 flush low confirms a fresh lower low
Fedspeak later Monday (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) could shift this read; CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk