Higher-low sequence off the 72,630 CPI low, consolidating 73,455–73,950.
NY's hot-CPI flush to 72,630 has been retraced in a higher-low sequence after the NY close. The pullback from the 73,950 swing high held the 73,455 swing low near the 38.2% fib, and price now sits just above the ema50 at 73,707 and ema20 at 73,597. RSI(14) is 55 and ATR(14) has compressed to ~22,246 pips ($222).
Support: 73,707.44, 73,455.11
Resistance: 73,949.56
What it said to watch
A break of the 73,455 swing low undercuts the higher-low trendline and reopens psych 73k
A close above the 73,950 swing high puts the 74,010 London low back in play
A slip back under the ema50 at 73,707 shifts the consolidation lower
Fed's Bowman/Paulson remarks on 25bp vs 50bp, underway now, could jolt this read
Lower highs from 73,950 since 21:30 UTC, holding 38.2% retrace.
The hot CPI print knocked BTC from the 74,502 cpi high to a 72,630 session low. The NY-hours recovery was rejected at the 73,950 swing high just shy of 74K, and highs have stepped lower since. Price is sitting on the 73,455 swing low near the 38.2% fib, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) flat at 49.5 and ATR compressing to about $226 from $361.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,134.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,706.37, 73,949.56, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
Bowman/Paulson are speaking at 23:30 UTC, now underway. Backing for a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 73,455 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 near 73,134, then the 72,630 session low.
A close above the ema50 at 73,706 and the lower-highs line reopens the 73,950 swing high. Above 74K, the cpi high at 74,502 is next.
Rebound off 72630 capped at 73950 swing high, pullback holding 73455.
The hot October CPI print flushed BTC to 72630 during NY hours. A higher-low recovery then met rejection at the 73950 swing high late in NY, and the pullback low at 73455 sits near the 38.2% fib of that rebound. Price is just below the ema20 and the ema50 with RSI(14) neutral at 49.4, while ATR(14) has contracted to about 23,340 pips.
Support: 73,455.11, 73,202.38
Resistance: 73,711.85, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the 73455 pullback low exposes the 73202 higher low and psych 73k
An M15 close above the ema50 at 73712 and the 73950 swing high would extend the higher-high sequence toward the psych 74k post-CPI breakdown level
Higher lows off 72,630, pullback after rejection at 73,950.
Hot October CPI at 13:30 UTC knocked BTC out of its 74,000–74,500 pre-release range. The NY-session post-CPI recovery printed higher lows up to 73,202 before a rejection at the 73,950 swing high, just shy of $74K. After the NY close, price is testing the 73,500 pullback low, above the ema20 but below the ema50 at 73,718, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) compressed to about $240 from $370.
Support: 73,500.00, 73,202.38, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,717.68, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
A close below the 73,500 pullback low and the 38.2% post-CPI recovery fib exposes the 73,202 higher low; losing that reopens the 72,630 cpi low
A recovery above the ema50 at 73,718 and the 73,950 swing high would put $74K and the 74,500 cpi high back in view
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC; backing for a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 72,630 session low; pullback between ema20 and ema50.
The hot October CPI at 13:30 UTC broke BTC below the 74,010 pre-cpi low. The NY session low at 72,630 then held through three tests. The late-NY recovery printed higher lows but saw rejection at the 73,950 swing high, short of 74,000, and price now sits between the ema20 (73,584) and the ema50 (73,723) with RSI(14) at 52 and ATR(14) easing to 24,688 pips (~$247).
Support: 73,583.60, 73,515.04, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,722.65, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Backing for a 50bp December hike would put the 72,630 session low back in play.
An M15 close below the 73,515 swing low breaks the recovery line and the higher-low chain.
A close above the ema50 and the 73,950 swing high puts the 74,010 pre-cpi low back in focus.
22:32 UTC
Recovery off post-CPI low, stalling under ema50 · RSI 50 · price 73,565.98
Higher lows since 72,630; rebound capped at 73,950.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC triggered a flush to a 72,630 session low, and the NY afternoon then built higher lows into a 73,950 rebound high. The latest bar rejected from 73,880 and closed back under ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) cooling to 49.5. Price is now sitting on the recovery trendline above the 73,451 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, and ATR has compressed to about $247.
Support: 73,451.00, 73,202.00, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,725.62, 73,950.00, 74,718.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close below the 73,451 swing low and the recovery trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 73,202 higher low, then 73,000 psych
Reclaiming the ema50 at 73,726 and then the 73,950 rebound high reopens the 74,718 post-cpi high
HH/HL chain off 72,630 session low, capped at 73,950.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC triggered a slide from the 74,719 post-CPI high to a 72,630 session low. Since then NY hours have built a higher-low chain back above ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 57.9 and ATR(14) compressing to 24,125 pips (~$241). Supply rejected the bounce at the 73,950 late NY high, near the 61.8% fib of the post-CPI drop.
Support: 73,713.82, 73,202.38, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,000.00, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, about 73 min out, could materially shift this read
A close below the 73,714 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 73,202 higher low reopens the 72,630 session low and the $73K area
A close above the 73,950 late NY high and 74,000 psych level opens the path to the 74,719 post-CPI high
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London drift lower, and the NY session ran to a 72,630 day low before a rebound built higher lows back above the ema20 at 73,552 and the ema50 at 73,729. The late-NY push saw rejection at the 73,950 rebound high just shy of 74K, with RSI(14) at 55.9, easing from 60. Rising support from the low now converges with the ema50 near 73,730, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $250 per bar.
Support: 73,728.56, 73,552.24
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ema50 and rising support near 73,700 would put the 73,200 higher low back in focus
Acceptance above the 74K mark would reopen the post-CPI high at 74,719
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC; talk of a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
The hot October CPI print sent BTC to a 72630 low during NY hours. Late NY has since built higher lows back above the rising ema20 and the flattening ema50. The 21:30 UTC bar printed a session high at 73950, near the 61.8% fib of the 74719–72630 drop, and was rejected just short of 74k psych. RSI(14) has cooled to 56 after climbing from 31, and ATR is compressing to about $262.
Support: 73,727.90, 73,531.98, 73,202.38
Resistance: 73,949.56
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp-hike talk could reverse the recovery
An M15 close above 74k psych and the session high clears the 61.8% fib
Loss of the ema50 at 73728 puts the ema20 at 73532 back in play
A break below the 73202 swing low and the rising-lows trendline ends the higher-low chain
HH/HL chain off the 72,630 double bottom; testing the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop.
Hot October CPI at 13:30 UTC drove a flush from the post-CPI high at 74,719 to 72,630. Price has since built a double bottom at 72,630–72,686 and a rising-lows chain into late NY hours. It now presses the recent high at 73,915, which coincides with the 61.8% CPI-drop fib, just under 74k psych. Price holds above the ema20 (73,509) and ema50 (73,727), with RSI(14) at 60 and ATR(14) compressing to ~26,500 pips.
Support: 73,726.92, 73,508.84, 73,202.38
Resistance: 73,914.60, 74,000.00, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above 74,000 (74k psych) reclaims the pre-CPI range and puts the post-CPI high at 74,719 back in view
Rejection at the 73,915 recent high / 61.8% fib with a close back below the ema50 at 73,727 stalls the recovery
Loss of the 73,202 higher low and the rising-lows trendline breaks the HH/HL structure
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Recovering from post-CPI low, momentum building · RSI 59 · price 73,834.69
Higher lows off 72630 base, neckline 73576 cleared.
Hot October CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the London range and, after a failed bounce at the 74719 post-CPI high, pushed BTC to a 72630 NY low. The base held on a second test and late NY has cleared the 73576 neckline and the ema50, with price sitting between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the post-CPI drop just under 74000 psych. RSI(14) has climbed from 31 to 59 while ATR(14) has compressed to ~27.5k pips (about $275).
Support: 73,721.42, 73,471.66, 73,202.38
Resistance: 74,000.00, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above 74000 psych reclaims the pre-CPI break level and opens the 61.8% fib near 73920 and then the post-CPI high at 74719
Close back below ema50 at 73721 and the ema20 near 73472 undercuts the double bottom breakout
Break of the 73202 higher low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 72630 base
Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read given the 50bp December hike debate
Rising lows off 72,630 session low; 73,576 prior high cleared, testing EMA50.
The hot October CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) flushed BTC out of the 74,000–74,370 pre-CPI range to a 72,630 session low. Late NY has since built a rising-lows chain, cleared the 73,576 prior high and retraced about 57% of the CPI drop. The last close sits above EMA20 (73,433) and just under EMA50 (73,717), with RSI(14) at 55.4 and ATR compressing to about $282.
Support: 73,576.00, 73,433.45, 73,202.38
Resistance: 74,000.00, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
A close back above the 74,000 psych level, the old pre-CPI range floor, would reclaim the breakdown zone and bring the 74,719 cpi spike hi into view
Holding the 73,576 prior high as support confirms the breakout; slipping back below it puts the ema20 at 73,433 in play
A break of the rising lows line and the 73,202 swing low ends the recovery structure and reopens the 72,630 session low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC (about 2.5h); any 50bp December talk could reset this read
HL chain off 72,630 low, price between ema20 and ema50.
The hot October CPI broke the 74,000 pre-CPI base, and NY extended to a 72,630 post-CPI low. Higher lows at 72,686 and the 73,202 swing low have since lifted price back above the ema20 and into the 50% retrace of the 74,719–72,630 post-CPI drop. Late NY is now pressing the 73,650 session high just under the ema50 at 73,719, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.9 and ATR compressing to about $290.
Support: 73,408.46, 73,202.38, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,649.89, 73,718.67, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 73,650 session high and the 73,719 ema50 opens the 74,000 round number, the former pre-CPI base.
Loss of the ema20 at 73,408 and the 73,202 swing low on rising support breaks the higher-low chain and re-exposes the 72,630 post-CPI low.
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could materially shift this read; any 50bp December hike talk is the hawkish risk.
73,200–73,650 consolidation inside a 74,719–72,630 drop; testing the session high.
The hot US CPI beat drove a sweep from 74,719 to the post-cpi low at 72,630 during NY hours. Price has since reclaimed the ema20 and rotated to the 73,650 session high, near the 50% fib of that drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.6 and the ema50 just overhead at 73,725. ATR(14) is easing to 29,795 pips (about $298), so the rebound is in a compressing, rangebound state with rising lows rather than a trend reversal.
Support: 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,649.89, 73,724.57, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 73,650 session high and the ema50 at 73,725 breaks the consolidation and puts the 74,000 round number in view
Loss of the ema20 and the 73,200 range low breaks the rising lows and reopens the post-cpi low at 72,630
Bowman speaking now (20:30 UTC), then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI base forming · RSI 50 · price 73,409.16
Higher lows off 72630, capped below 73576 and ema50.
The hot CPI print broke the 74000–74400 pre-CPI range and extended to a 72630 cpi low in early NY hours. Late in the NY session price is grinding higher lows above the ema20 and sits at the 38.2% of the post-CPI drop fib, still under the 73576 bounce high and the ema50. RSI(14) has recovered to 49.5 from the 29.5 oversold reading, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $300 from $408.
Support: 73,202.38, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,575.97, 73,731.17, 74,009.49
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read after the CPI beat
M15 close above the 73576 bounce high and the ema50 at 73731 puts the 50% fib near 73674 and the pre-cpi low at 74009 in play
Loss of the 73202 higher low breaks the higher lows trendline and reopens the 72630 cpi low
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, short-term base building · RSI 48 · price 73,311.26
Higher lows off NY low, capped below falling ema50.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC whipsawed BTC from 73431 to a cpi spike high at 74719, then the NY session flushed to a 72630 ny low as RSI(14) hit 29.5. Since then, higher lows have lifted price to a 73576 bounce high, which stalled near the 38.2–50% fib. Price now sits on a flat ema20 at 73366, below a falling ema50 at 73743, and ATR(14) has eased from about 40,800 to 30,500 pips.
Support: 73,226.36, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,575.97, 73,743.09, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, about 28 minutes out, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 73226 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 72630 ny low
An M15 close above the 73576 bounce high exposes the ema50 at 73743 and the 50% fib near 73674
Acceptance above the ema50 would reopen the cpi spike high at 74719
Lower highs from 74,719; tight range 73,226–73,436 below both EMAs.
The hot US CPI beat (0.4% vs 0.3%) set off whipsaw, then a NY-session leg down from the 74,719 post-CPI high to a 72,630 session low. The rebound high at 73,576 stalled below the 50% fib of that drop, and price is now compressing in a 73,226–73,436 range just under the ema20 (73,366), with the ema50 at 73,758 still overhead. RSI(14) has recovered to 45.7 from 29.5. ATR has eased to ~$312 from ~$408.
Support: 73,226.36, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,365.84, 73,575.97, 73,758.43
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (in ~44 min) could break the range either way
M15 close below the 73,226 range low reopens the 72,630 session low
Close above the ema20 and the 73,576 rebound high breaks the lower-highs line
Reclaim of the ema50 at 73,758 would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, short-term base forming · RSI 46 · price 73,350.22
Post-CPI lower high at 74,719; higher low 72,686 over 72,630 session low; bounce capped at 73,576.
The hot US CPI print set off a NY-session break below the 74,010 London lows. The slide made a 72,630 session low, and a 72,686 higher low has formed since on rising lows. The bounce stalled at 73,576, inside the 38.2–50% fib of the 74,719–72,630 drop, and price now sits just under the ema20 at 73,373 and well below a falling ema50 at 73,777.
Support: 73,241.34, 72,685.95, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,373.37, 73,575.97, 73,777.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,241 swing low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 72,686 higher low / 72,630 session low
Close above the 73,576 bounce high brings the ema50 at 73,777 and fib 50% near 73,674 into play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read after the hot CPI
Post-CPI lower high at 73,576; higher low at 73,005 holding.
The hot US CPI print broke the pre-data 74,000 floor, and the NY session extended to a 72,630 ny low. The bounce printed a higher low at 73,005 but was rejected at the 73,576 swing high, about 45% of the post-CPI drop. Price is back under the ema20 at 73,378 and the ema50 at 73,796, with RSI(14) recovered to 44.9 from 29.5 and ATR easing to ~$334.
Support: 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,378.12, 73,575.97, 73,795.71
What it said to watch
A close above the 73,576 swing high and the ema20 rebuilds the bounce; the ema50 at 73,796 is next overhead
A break of the 73,005 higher low snaps the rising trendline and exposes the 72,630 ny low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~74 min) could materially shift this read after the hot CPI
The hot US CPI print broke the 74,000–74,400 pre-NY range. Price fell to a 72,630 CPI low, and the late-NY bounce stalled at the 73,576 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the CPI drop fib. Price is now retesting ema20 at 73,390 from below, with RSI 47.3, ema50 at 73,817 overhead and ATR near $347 per bar.
Support: 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,390.10, 73,575.97, 73,817.40
What it said to watch
A close back above the 73,576 bounce high, and then ema50 at 73,817, would extend the rising lows off the 72,630 CPI low
A break below the 73,005 higher low snaps the rising lows and reopens the 72,630 CPI low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~88 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 74,719; base at 72,630–72,690, higher lows since.
The hot US CPI print broke the 74,000–74,370 London range. The NY slide reached 72,630, and lows then held three times between 72,630 and 72,690. Price has reclaimed the ema20 at 73,390 and sits near the 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI leg (~73,430), still below the ema50. RSI(14) has recovered to 48.8 from sub-30, and ATR(14) is 36,085 pips (~$361).
Support: 73,390.40, 73,005.60, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,575.97, 73,834.96, 74,009.49
What it said to watch
A close above the 73,576 rebound high puts the ema50 at 73,835 and the 74,009 london low back in play
Loss of the ema20 and then the 73,006 higher low reopens the 72,630 cpi low; a break there resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~104 min) could materially shift this read after the hot CPI
Lower highs from 74,719; higher lows off 72,630 session low.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) broke BTC out of a slow London drift below the Asian range, and NY extended to a 72,630 session low after the 74,719 post-CPI bounce failed. Since the low, price is printing higher lows and pressing the ema20 at 73,383 from below. RSI(14) is 43.8 after a bullish divergence at the session low, and ATR(14) of 36,171 pips (~$362) keeps bar ranges wide.
Support: 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,382.86, 73,458.10, 73,850.18
What it said to watch
A close above the 73,458 swing high and the ema20 puts the 38.2% fib near 73,430 behind price and exposes the ema50 at 73,850
Losing the 73,005 higher low reopens the 72,630 session low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after NY sell-off · RSI 41 · price 73,116.48
Post-CPI lower high at 74719, base 72630–73460 with rising lows.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the London low near 74010. The bounce to 74719 was rejected, and NY extended to a 72630 session low. After the London close, price is consolidating below ema20 and ema50 on rising lows, with RSI(14) at 40.6 after sub-30 troughs: a mild bullish divergence on the second low.
Support: 72,779.85, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,320.25, 73,398.59, 73,875.35
What it said to watch
A close above the 73320 swing high and ema20 at 73399 (38.2% of the post-CPI drop near 73428) breaks the consolidation top
A reclaim of ema50 at 73875 would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend read
Losing the rising lows at 72780 exposes the 72630 session low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (Paulson/Bowman 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is about $370 (37,040 pips) per bar
Lower highs since 74,719; base forming at 72,630-72,690.
The hot US CPI beat broke the pre-data 74,000-74,500 range. A post-CPI bounce failed at 74,719 and NY hours then printed a session low at 72,630, with RSI(14) making a higher low against the lower price low. Price is lifting off a higher low at 72,780 toward the ema20 at 73,431, which sits beside the 73,458 swing high and the 38.2% fib.
Support: 72,779.85, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,430.60, 73,458.10, 73,907.23
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,458 swing high and ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the ema50 at 73,907
Failure at ema20 / 38.2% keeps the descending trendline intact
Loss of the 72,780 higher low and the 72,630 session low negates the bullish RSI divergence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near $380 per bar
Lower highs from 74,719; tight 72,630–73,460 base under ema20.
The hot US CPI print broke the 74,000–74,400 London range. The first NY-session spike to 73,431 was bought back to 74,719, then a second leg made a new session low at 72,630. Price is now basing below a falling ema20 at 73,455, with RSI(14) at 34.7 holding above its earlier 29.5 dip despite the lower low. ATR of about 37,700 pips ($377) shows NY-hours volatility still elevated.
Support: 72,630.01, 72,000.00
Resistance: 73,455.36, 73,936.28
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 / 73,460 post-CPI high breaks the lower-high sequence
Acceptance below the 72,630 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 72,000 round number
Ema50 at 73,936 marks the next cap if the base resolves higher
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~2.7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since hot CPI; tight base above 72,630.
The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the London low at 74,009 and the Asian range, and the 74,719 rebound failed into a lower high before the NY session flush to the 72,630 NY low. Price is basing between the NY low and the 73,458 bounce high, below a falling ema20 at 73,515. RSI(14) is at 35.7 after two dips near 29, and ATR has roughly doubled to about $377.
Support: 72,630.01, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,458.10, 73,514.90, 74,009.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,458 bounce high and ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 72,630 NY low extends lower lows toward the 72,500 round number
Reclaim of the 74,009 london low (ema50 near 73,979) would negate the post-CPI breakdown
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows below falling EMAs.
The hot US CPI print broke the London range floor near 74,000. After a rejection at 74,719, the post-CPI drop printed lower highs and a session low at 72,630, with price below a falling ema20 (73,573) and ema50 (74,021). RSI(14) at 34.1 is holding above its 29.5 trough despite the lower low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR has doubled to about $391.
Support: 72,630.01, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,458.10, 73,573.24, 74,020.56
What it said to watch
A close back above the 73,458 lower high and the ema20 at 73,573 breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 72,630 session low extends the downtrend toward the 72,500 round number
Ema50 near 74,020 caps any recovery back into the old London range
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Overnight 74,000–75,300 range broken lower; post-CPI leg making lower highs and lower lows.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the overnight range below the 74,009 pre-CPI low. The bounce failed at 74,719, and NY session has since printed a lower high at 73,458, near the 38.2% of the post-CPI leg, and a 72,630 session low. Price sits below the ema20 (73,644) and ema50, RSI(14) is 31.4 (not oversold), and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly $405.
Support: 72,630.01, 72,000.00
Resistance: 73,458.10, 73,644.46, 74,009.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 72,630 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 72,000 round number
Recovery above the 73,458 lower high and the ema20 at 73,644 breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 74,009 pre-CPI low puts price back inside the overnight range
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 74,719 post-CPI high; pre-CPI range broken lower.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the 74,000–74,370 London range lower. The 74,719 rebound high then failed, and NY extended to a 72,630 session low below both EMAs, with ATR(14) doubling to ~40,500 pips. RSI(14) at 34.6 is making a higher low against the 72,758 low, a mild bullish divergence that is not yet oversold.
Support: 72,630.01, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,458.10, 73,734.94
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 72,630 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 72,500 round number
Close above the 73,458 lower high and the ema20 at 73,735 breaks the lower-highs trendline and challenges the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 74,010 london low would put price back inside the pre-CPI range and void the range break
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London range broken lower on CPI; lower high at 74,719, lower low at 72,758.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC broke the London range of 74,010–74,480 lower. The NY rebound was rejected at 74,719, a lower high on the lower-highs line, and the next leg printed a 72,758 swing low. Price is now bouncing toward the cpi bar low at 73,431 (near the 38.2% fib), below the ema20 at 73,874, with RSI(14) off 29.5 to 36.8 and ATR(14) doubled to 39,500 pips.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,757.87
Resistance: 73,431.13, 73,873.62
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,431 cpi bar low / 38.2% fib (~73,507) would mark the first reclaim of post-CPI structure
Reclaiming the ema20 (73,874) and london low (74,010) would break the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 73,000 psych level reopens the 72,758 swing low; a break extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, give the first Fed read on the CPI beat and could reset this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high at 75,330; post-CPI second leg made a new session low.
The hot US CPI (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 74,009 London low. A rebound then stalled at 74,718, a lower high under the lower-high trendline from the Asian high, and a second leg during NY hours set a session low at 72,758 as ATR(14) expanded to 40,794 pips (~$408). Price is bouncing near the 73,000 round number, below the 73,431 CPI low, with RSI(14) at 34.1 after a 29.5 dip; EMA20 (73,941) sits under EMA50 and both slope lower.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,757.87
Resistance: 73,431.13, 74,009.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 72,758 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 73,431 CPI low (near the 38.2% fib of the 74,718–72,758 leg) would mark the first sign of the drop stalling
M15 close above ema20 at 73,941 and the 74,009 London low would break the lower-high sequence
Hold above the 73,000 round number keeps the bounce in play
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, give the first Fed read on the CPI beat
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 30 · price 73,110.48
Lower highs from the 75,330 Asia high; London range (74,010–74,500) and CPI low broken.
The hot US CPI print (core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) produced a whipsaw at 13:30 UTC. The post-CPI rebound stalled at 74,719, and the 15:30 UTC bar broke the 73,431 CPI low to a new session low at 72,758. RSI(14) is oversold at 29.5 and ATR(14) has roughly doubled to ~40,200 pips (~$402), with price below the ema20 (74,030) and ema50 under a lower-high trendline.
Support: 72,757.87, 72,500.00
Resistance: 73,431.13, 74,030.07, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 72,758 session low exposes the 72,500 round number
Reclaim of the 73,431 CPI low would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the ema20 at 74,030 neutralises the lower-high sequence; the post-CPI high at 74,719 caps above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, gives the first Fed read on CPI and could materially shift this read
Lower highs across the window; pre-NY range broken lower on CPI, rebound capped at 74,718.
Hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke BTC out of the 74,010–74,370 pre-NY range to a 73,431 cpi low. The rebound to the 74,718 rebound high was rejected inside the first two hours of NY, and price is back below the range low and the ema20 (74,150), near the 78.6% level of the cpi rebound fib. ATR(14) has jumped to 33,740 pips ($337) from about 18,900 before the release, while RSI(14) at 44.6 is mid-range.
Support: 73,500.06, 73,431.13
Resistance: 74,149.69
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,500 post-cpi low exposes the 73,431 cpi low and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 74,010 range low and ema20 at 74,150 would put the 74,718 rebound high back in play
A break of the cpi rebound fib's 78.6% level near 73,707 marks a near-full retrace of the post-CPI bounce
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~5h), then Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; CPI sweep below London low reclaimed.
Lower highs from the London 74,895 high ran into the hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c), which swept the 74,009 London low to a 73,431 CPI low. The 14:30 UTC bar then reclaimed 74,000 and the ema20, retracing about 58% of the London-CPI leg. Price sits between the ema20 at 74,132 and the ema50 at 74,364, with RSI(14) back at 49.8 from 29.4 and ATR(14) expanded to about $305.
Support: 74,132.07, 74,009.49, 73,431.13
Resistance: 74,363.81, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 74,009 London low puts the 73,431 CPI low back in focus
A close above the ema50 at 74,364 and the lower-highs trendline near 74,415 breaks the intraday downtrend read; the CPI high at 74,502 sits above
Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~5.7h) reacting to the hot CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs since yesterday's NY session; pre-CPI London range broken lower, price pressing the CPI low.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% MoM, core 0.3%) at 13:30 UTC broke the 74,009–74,372 London range lower, with a wick to the 73,431 CPI low. The post-release bounce stalled at 73,888, under the 50% retracement, and price is back near the CPI low in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is at 33.5 below both EMAs, and ATR(14) has jumped to ~26,800 pips (~$268) from ~18,900 before the release, all under the lower-high line from yesterday's 75,330 high.
Support: 73,431.13, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,887.63, 74,009.49, 74,125.31
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 73,431 CPI low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 73,000 psych level in view
A recovery above the 73,888 bounce high and back inside the 74,009 range floor would turn the CPI break into a false break
The ema20 at 74,125 sits above the range floor as a second cap
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, reacting to the hot CPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 75,330 Asia high; London range broken lower on CPI.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% MoM vs 0.3% f/c, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) produced a whipsaw bar at 13:30 UTC that wicked to the cpi high at 74,502, then broke the london low at 74,009 and printed the cpi low at 73,431. The first hour of NY has bounced only to ~73,860 and held a higher post-cpi low at 73,548, with RSI(14) back to 37.2 from 29.4. Price sits below the ema20 at 74,174 and ATR(14) has expanded to 26,551 pips from ~18,900.
Support: 73,548.00, 73,431.13
Resistance: 74,009.49, 74,174.09, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
Close back above the london low at 74,009 would mark the CPI break as failing
Loss of the post-cpi low at 73,548 and then the cpi low at 73,431 extends the lower-low sequence
Ema20 at 74,174 aligns with the 38.2% fib of the asia high-cpi low leg; rejection there keeps the downtrend read intact
Reclaim of the cpi high at 74,502, above the 50% fib and ema50, would negate the post-CPI break
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since midnight UTC · RSI 29 · price 73,716.82
Pre-CPI 74009–74372 range broken lower; post-CPI lows forming.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke BTC out of the pre-CPI 74009–74372 range to a cpi low at 73431.13, extending the lower-high sequence from the 75330 Asian high. Price is holding just above the 73548 post-cpi low in the first hour of NY, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 29.4 oversold and ATR(14) expanding to about $265.
Support: 73,548.00, 73,431.13
Resistance: 74,009.49, 74,209.82, 74,372.10
What it said to watch
A M15 close back above the 74009 range low (~61.8% of the CPI drop fib) would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 73431 cpi low extends the lower-low chain
A recovery through the ema20 at 74210 and the 74372 range top would break the lower-highs line
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~6h) could add to the post-CPI hawkish repricing
Lower highs since 75330; 74010–74370 London range broken lower on CPI.
Lower highs from 75330 carried through Asia and London into a 74010–74370 range, with the decline extending after Waller. Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%, headline 0.4% vs 0.3%) brought a spike rejected at 74502, then a break of the London low to 73431. Price sits below the ema20 and ema50, RSI at 32.5 is near but not yet oversold, and ATR jumped to 25202 pips.
Support: 73,431.13
Resistance: 74,009.49, 74,269.28, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the london low at 74009 would turn the CPI range break into a false break
Failure to hold the cpi low at 73431 extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Close above ema20 at 74269 and the cpi high at 74502 needed to challenge the lower highs line
CPI YoY actuals still pending; Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high; pre-CPI range low broken.
BTC printed lower highs in a decline from the 75,330 Asia high. Waller's 09:00 UTC hawkish warning pushed it to 74,009, and price then compressed in a 74,009–74,372 range under the ema20 into the 13:30 UTC CPI release. The still-forming CPI bar broke the range low and spiked to 73,431 before paring to 73,864, a swing of over five times the $189 ATR, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 73,431.13, 73,000.00
Resistance: 74,009.49, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 74,009 range low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 73,431 CPI low exposes the 73,000 psych level
Recovery through the ema20 at 74,318 and the 74,502 cpi spike high would negate the lower-high sequence
CPI bar is still forming; the closing print and NY session follow-through set the post-data structure
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~7h and could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 47 · price 74,190.30
Post-Waller range 74010–74372, lower highs into a flat base.
Waller's hawkish 09:00 UTC remarks broke the Asian low at 74270 in the London session. Since then price has compressed in a 74010–74372 range below both EMAs, with a descending cap of lower highs pressing into the session low. RSI(14) sits neutral at 46.8 and ATR(14) is about $189 heading into CPI.
Support: 74,135.00, 74,010.00
Resistance: 74,324.00, 74,372.00, 74,490.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, 14 min out: a hot core print would test the hawkish NFP read against the 74010–74372 range
An M15 close below the 74010 session low extends the London-session downtrend
An M15 close above the 74372 lower high clears the descending cap and the ema20 at 74324; the ema50 at 74490 is next overhead
Failure to hold the 74135 minor low puts the session low back in play
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into CPI · RSI 47 · price 74,170.32
Lower highs above a flat 74010 floor, below both EMAs.
Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks pushed BTC through the asian low at 74270 to a 74009 session low. Since then price has compressed between that floor and a line of lower highs, holding below the ema20 (74327) and ema50 (74498). RSI(14) sits at 47 and ATR is about $188 heading into CPI.
Support: 74,046.45, 74,009.49
Resistance: 74,270.21, 74,326.70, 74,477.98
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m, headline 0.3%) lands in two bars and can override the compression. ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC comes first.
An M15 close below the 74046 swing low and 74009 session low breaks a floor tested three times since London.
A reclaim of the asian low at 74270 and the ema20 would take price back into the prior range.
A close above the lower highs line and the 74478 swing high negates the lower-high sequence.
Lower highs since London open, flat base near 74,010.
London broke below the Asian low at 74,270 on the 09:00 UTC bar as Waller warned of aggressive tightening. A chain of lower highs has capped every rebound under the ema20 at 74,329 since then. Price is compressing just above the 74,009 session low into US CPI, with RSI(14) at 38.9 and ATR(14) near $186.
Support: 74,009.49
Resistance: 74,270.21, 74,328.86, 74,477.98
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~44 min) can materially shift this read; a move well beyond the ~$186 ATR is plausible on the print
An M15 close below the 74,009 session low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close back above the Asian low at 74,270 and the ema20 at 74,329 breaks the lower-highs trendline
The 50% retracement of the London selloff sits near 74,452, just under the 74,478 lower high
Lower highs below the broken Asian low, holding a 74010 floor.
Waller's tightening warning at 09:00 UTC knocked BTC through the Asian low at 74270, and London has since printed lower highs at 74478 and 74372. The bounce stalled near the waller drop fib 38.2% and the falling EMA20 at 74351, with price now pressing toward the 74009 session low ahead of CPI. RSI(14) sits at 40.4 and ATR(14) is 18,888 pips (about $189 per bar).
Support: 74,009.49
Resistance: 74,270.21, 74,372.10, 74,477.98
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~1h) and ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC can materially shift this read
M15 close below the 74009 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 74372 swing high breaks the descending line and the lower-high sequence
Recovery of the 74270 Asian low as support would neutralise the post-Waller breakdown
Lower highs from 75474; flat base 74010–74030 into CPI.
The 09:00 UTC Waller bar broke the Asian low at 74270, extending the slide from yesterday's NY high at 75474. Price then held a London low near 74010 twice. It is now pinned back around the Asian low, under the lower-highs line and below both EMAs (ema20 74382, ema50 74547). RSI(14) at 45.8 has recovered from 35 and ATR is about 19,500 pips ($195).
Support: 74,270.21
Resistance: 74,381.74, 74,477.98, 74,546.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74478 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with ema50 at 74547 next overhead
Failure to hold the 74010 london low resumes the lower-low chain; a slip back under the 74270 asian low comes first
ADP at 13:15 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read during the first hour of NY
Lower highs since London open; 74010 base held three times.
London broke below the 74270 Asian low on the 09:00 UTC slide around Waller's speech. A chain of lower highs from 74896 ran into a 74010 London low, which has now held three tests. Price is retesting the asian low from below, under ema20 (74387) and ema50 (74556), with ATR(14) expanded to 20,220 pips (~$202) as hawkish post-NFP tone carries into CPI.
Support: 74,270.21
Resistance: 74,387.28, 74,477.98, 74,555.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74478 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence; the 61.8% of the London drop fib (~74557) sits on ema50
Failure to reclaim the asian low keeps 74010 london low in play; a close below it extends the downtrend
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 4-week at 13:15) could materially shift this read; core m/m f/c 0.2%
Asian range low broken, retest from below rejected.
BTC broke the Asian low at 74361 on the bar of Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks. The morning sell-off then made lower highs and lower lows down to a 74101 session low, with ATR expanding and both EMAs sloping lower overhead. The late-London bounce retested the broken asian low and was rejected at 74407. RSI(14) at 41.3 is mid-range heading into US CPI.
Support: 74,100.97, 74,000.00
Resistance: 74,360.95, 74,407.30, 74,483.09
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h), with ADP at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read. The digest flags a hot core print as the larger downside risk.
An M15 close above the 74407 lower high and the trendline would break the sell-off's lower-high chain, with ema20 at 74483 the next cap.
Failure to hold the 74101 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 74000 round number.
Lower highs since NY high; Asian range broken lower in London.
Highs have stepped lower since yesterday's 75554 NY high. Twin Asian highs near 74980 capped price, and the 09:00 UTC bar around Waller's speech broke the Asian range lower, with London printing a session low at 74101. Price is now back above the broken asian low at 74361 but still below the ema20 (74501) and ema50 (74666), with RSI(14) at 42.4 after a dip to 35; the 50% fib of the London drop lines up with the 74545 lower high. ATR(14) is about $193 per bar.
Support: 74,361.00, 74,101.00
Resistance: 74,501.00, 74,545.00, 74,666.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) and ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 74545 lower high / 50% fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the asian low at 74361 puts the 74101 session low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Rejection at the ema20 near 74501 keeps the London downtrend intact
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 74,175.82
LH/LL chain from 74,982; Asian low broken, testing 24h low.
London has stacked lower highs from 74,982 to 74,545 along a falling resistance line. Price broke the Asian low at 74,361 around Waller's 09:00 UTC slot and is pressing the 24h low near 74,101. Price sits below a declining ema20 (74,518) and ema50 (74,679), with RSI(14) at 36.9, soft but not oversold, and ATR(14) near 189 USD per bar ahead of CPI.
Support: 74,100.97, 74,000.00
Resistance: 74,360.95, 74,517.76, 74,545.40
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 74,361 would stall the lower-low sequence
Break of the lower high at 74,545 and the ema20 negates the London lower-highs read
Acceptance below the 24h low at 74,101 exposes the 74,000 round number
ADP at 13:15 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits the hawkish digest
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 35 · price 74,128.79
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
Lower highs since the 75,427 Asia-open peak. The drop during Waller's 09:00 UTC hour broke the Asian low at 74,361, and price now presses the 74,100 session low. It sits below a falling ema20 at 74,550, which caps near the 74,545 swing; RSI(14) 35.2 is soft but not oversold, and ATR is expanding into today's US CPI.
Support: 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,360.95, 74,549.60, 74,981.84
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 74,361 asian low would neutralise the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 74,100 session low exposes the 24h low at 74,041
Reclaim of the ema20 (74,550) and the 74,982 lower high would end the lower-highs sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.7h) can reset this structure; the digest flags a hot core print as the larger risk for BTC
10:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since 00:00 UTC · RSI 39 · price 74,309.18
Asian range broken lower, price retesting the Asian low from below.
The London drop around Waller's 09:00 UTC speech broke the Asian low at 74361 and printed a 74163 session low. The bounce was capped at the 74545 swing high, below the ema20 at 74589. Price is now pressing back under the Asian low, with lower highs intact from 75427 to 74982, RSI(14) at 38.6 and ATR expanded since the drop.
Support: 74,162.54, 74,000.00
Resistance: 74,360.95, 74,545.40, 74,588.98
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with ADP at 13:15, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 74361 Asian low, then the 74545 swing high, would negate the range-break read
Failure to hold the 74163 session low exposes the 74000 round number
Reclaim of ema20 at 74589 would break the lower-highs sequence
Lower highs from 75427; Asian low broken, bounce capped at 74545.
Lower highs run from the 75427 midnight high. London broke the 74361 Asian low and price flushed to 74163 during Fed's Waller remarks at 09:00 UTC, as the hawkish post-NFP read weighs into CPI. The bounce stalled at a 74545 lower high, about 47% of the drop, and price sits below the declining ema20 (74618) and ema50 (74736) with RSI(14) at 40.7 and ATR(14) near $188 per bar.
Support: 74,162.54, 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,360.95, 74,545.40, 74,618.10
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h15m) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 74545 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; ema20 at 74618 sits just above
Failure to hold the 74163 Waller low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 74041 24h low
Asian low at 74361 now overhead; acceptance back above it weakens the range-break read
Lower highs and lows; bounce after sweep of Asian low.
Lower highs from 75427 into a double lower high near 74980 during London. The Waller speech bar swept the asian low at 74361 down to a waller low at 74163, and ATR(14) expanded on that bar. The recovery holds back above 74361 but still sits below a falling ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 43.9.
Support: 74,360.95, 74,162.54
Resistance: 74,642.15, 74,750.25
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) can materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average lands 15 minutes earlier
M15 close back below the asian low at 74361 reopens the waller low at 74163
Failure to hold the waller low at 74163 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema20 at 74642 and the ema50 at 74750 puts the descending trendline and 74980 lower high in play
Close above the 74980 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 40 · price 74,499.32
Lower highs below a descending line; London swept the Asian low and reclaimed it.
Lower highs from yesterday's 75,554 NY high. In the 09:00 UTC bar, during the Waller speech slot, London cut through the 74,361 asian low to a 74,163 session low, then reclaimed the low. Price is still below the ema20 (74,657) and ema50 (74,760), RSI(14) is at 40, and ATR(14) has expanded back to about $192 as the hawkish NFP overhang carries into CPI.
Support: 74,360.95, 74,162.54, 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,656.70, 74,760.31, 74,981.84
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (about 3h45m away) could materially shift this read; core at 0.3% or above is the hawkish-risk case
A close back below the 74,361 asian low turns the sweep into a failed reclaim
Losing the 74,163 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 74,041 prior low in view
A recovery above the ema20 and then the ema50 at 74,760 would challenge the downtrend read
The 74,982 lower high, capped twice in Asia and early London, sits on the descending line and is the level the downtrend read rests on
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 41 · price 74,431.40
Lower highs from 75427, Asian low broken on Waller.
Lower highs at 75427, then twice at 74982 during Asia and early London. The Waller-hour bar broke the Asian low at 74361 and printed a waller low of 74163. Price is bouncing back toward the Asian low, with RSI(14) at 41.4, both EMAs sloping down and ATR(14) expanding on the drop. The 61.8% fib of the Waller drop sits near 74669, close to the ema20 at 74683, with the ema50 at 74775 above.
Support: 74,360.95, 74,162.54, 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,682.81, 74,774.66, 74,981.84
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 74982 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 74163 waller low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 74041 prior low
Acceptance back above the 74361 Asian low turns the break into a false break
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP at 13:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:22 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 36 · price 74,321.26
Lower highs from 75427; Asian low 74361 broken in early London.
The 09:00 UTC bar, which coincided with Waller's slot, broke the Asian low at 74361 and printed a session low at 74163. Price sits below both EMAs, and the lower highs from 75427 and the 74982 lower high remain intact. ATR(14) jumped to 193 from about 166 and RSI(14) is at 36, soft but not oversold.
Support: 74,162.54, 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,360.95, 74,706.75, 74,982.38
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74163 session low exposes the 74041 prior low from yesterday's London session
Recovery back above the 74361 Asian low turns the range break into a false break
M15 close above the 74707 ema20 and the 74982 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (248 min) is likely to expand ranges well beyond the current 193-pip ATR
09:02 UTC
Intraday lower highs inside a 24h range · RSI 48 · price 74,424.64
Lower highs since the Asia-open high; Asian low pierced on the current bar.
BTC dipped to the 74,243 session low as Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks began, piercing the 74,361 asian low before rebounding back above it. Price sits below the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 47.7. Since the 75,427 high at the Asia open the tape has printed lower highs, with the london high at 74,982 capping, all inside the 24h low–high band of 74,041–75,554 ahead of CPI.
Support: 74,360.95, 74,242.94, 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,747.33, 74,806.73, 74,981.84
What it said to watch
Forming bar is still open: an M15 close back below the asian low at 74,361 confirms the sweep turned into a lower low, with the 24h low at 74,041 next
Recovery through the ema20/ema50 band (74,747–74,807) and a close above the london high at 74,982 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Waller speaking now (09:00 UTC) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the market digest flags a hot core print as the larger downside risk for BTC
Lower highs off 75427; double top at 74982 broken lower.
Price has made lower highs since the 75427 midnight high. London was capped at 74982 for a double top, and the drop has taken price back below ema20 and ema50 to test the 74447 london low, with RSI(14) at 40.9 and ATR compressing. The Asian low at 74361 is the next reference as the tape digests Friday's hot payrolls ahead of Waller and US CPI.
Support: 74,447.49, 74,360.95, 74,041.08
Resistance: 74,751.21, 74,810.66, 74,982.38
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74447 london low exposes the 74361 asian low, then the 74041 swing low
Recovery back above ema20 (74751) and ema50 (74811) neutralises the double top read
An M15 close above 74982 breaks the lower highs sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday down-drift, range contracting · RSI 44 · price 74,604.64
Lower highs from 75,427 Asia high; higher low held at 74,552.
London open was rejected at the 74,982 equal highs left from Asia. Price has faded below the ema20 (74,771) and ema50 (74,821) to 74,605, sitting on the 61.8% retracement of the 74,361–74,982 Asian bounce. The range is contracting under a descending line from the 75,427 Asia high, ATR(14) is easing toward ~$160, and RSI(14) sits at 44 as the market digests Friday's hot payrolls ahead of CPI.
Support: 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,771.42, 74,982.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,552 swing low exposes the asian low at 74,361
Close above the 74,982 equal highs breaks the descending line and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 at 74,771 would neutralise the London-session fade
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~30 min) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asian open · RSI 50 · price 74,763.52
Coiling between 74,552 and 74,982 with higher lows.
Asia sold off from the 75,427 asian high to a 74,361 asian low. Since then BTC has printed higher lows into a 74,552 range low, while London's push stalled twice at the 74,982 range top, inside the 50–61.8% fib of that drop. Price sits just above the ema20 and below the ema50 at 74,828, with RSI(14) flat at 49.5 and ATR compressing ahead of Waller and CPI.
Support: 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,827.52, 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,982 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 75,427 asian high
Failure to hold the 74,552 range low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 74,361 asian low
Rejection at the ema50 near 74,828 keeps price inside the range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, about 43 min out, could break the current coil
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%). A hot core print is the main intraday risk to this range read
08:02 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, capped below 74,982 · RSI 52 · price 74,873.42
Higher lows from 74,361 under a flat intraday cap.
The bounce off the 74,361 Asia low has printed higher lows. It has been rejected twice at the 74,982 intraday cap, just shy of the 61.8% level of the Asia drop fib from the 75,427 Asia high, and price sits fractionally above the ema50 into London open. RSI(14) is neutral at 51.5 after recovering from 31.5, and ATR is compressing as desks wait on US CPI after Friday's hot payrolls.
Support: 74,829.15, 74,594.58, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,982 intraday cap opens the path toward the 75,427 Asia high
Break of the higher low line and 74,595 higher low reopens the 74,361 Asia low
Failure to hold the ema50 near 74,829 keeps price boxed under the cap
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Recovering within overnight range, higher low in place · RSI 54 · price 74,972.07
Higher low at 74552 above the 74361 Asian low, price testing session high.
BTC has rebuilt from the 74,361 Asian low, putting in a higher low at 74,552. It is now pressing the 74,982 session high early in London, back above the ema50 at 74,829 with RSI(14) at 54. ATR(14) is compressing as the market digests Friday's hot payrolls ahead of CPI, and price sits roughly midway on the asia drop fib, with the 75,427 asia high and 75,554 prior high above.
Support: 74,828.92, 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,982.38, 75,426.84, 75,553.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,982 session high opens the path toward the 75,427 asia high
Failure to hold the 74,552 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 74,361 asian low
Loss of the ema50 at 74,829 would undo the recovery read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~73 min) could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the session; the 75,554 prior high caps yesterday's range
Lower high at 75427 vs 75554, higher low at 74552 after the Asian low.
BTC fell from the 75427 Asian high to the 74361 Asian low at 03:30 UTC as RSI(14) dipped to 31.5, then printed a higher low at 74552 and reclaimed the ema20 at 74765. Price is now pressing the ema50 at 74826 into the start of London. The 74982 swing high caps this bounce, ATR(14) is compressing and the market is holding ahead of US CPI after Friday's hot payrolls. Price sits near the midpoint of the Asian drop.
Support: 74,764.68, 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,826.12, 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74982 swing high extends the recovery toward the 75427 Asian high
Failure to hold the 74552 higher low breaks the higher low line and reopens the 74361 Asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift the read in the first hours of London
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk; compressing ATR points to a contained range until then
Lower highs from 75554, compressing above 74552 swing low.
Lower highs since the 75554 NY-session peak. The Asia session marked a 75427 Asian high, then a 74361 Asian low, and the rebound stalled at 74982, short of the 61.8% retrace of the overnight decline. Early London is compressing between the 74552 swing low and the ema20 at 74761. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is at 44.5 and ATR(14) is easing as the market digests Friday's hot payrolls ahead of CPI.
Support: 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,761.31, 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74982 swing high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 75427 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 74552 swing low exposes the 74361 Asian low; a break there confirms a fresh lower low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 44 · price 74,729.44
Lower highs 75,554 → 75,427 → 74,982 with a higher low at 74,552.
Price sits in the lower half of the Asian range (asian high 75,427, asian low 74,361) ahead of London. It is below both EMAs, with ema20 at 74,772 capping, and the Asian session has printed a lower high at 74,982 near the 0.618 retrace. The 74,552 swing low held as a higher low, RSI(14) is at 43.5 after a 31.5 trough, and ATR is compressing into Waller and CPI.
Support: 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,771.54, 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,982 lower high breaks the descending-highs chain and reopens the asian high at 75,427
Failure to hold the 74,552 swing low exposes the asian low at 74,361
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 74,659.66
Lower highs from 75427 Asian high, base 74361–74552.
Asia session has printed lower highs from the 75427 Asian high. The 74982 lower high was rejected just under the 61.8% fib, and price sits below the ema20 (74785) and ema50 (74842), both sloping down. Demand held the 74552 swing low above the 74361 Asian low, with RSI(14) at 45 after the 31.5 dip, and ATR runs about $174 per bar ahead of Waller and US CPI.
Support: 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,785.24, 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
M15 close above 74982 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
Failure to hold 74361 asian low confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of ema20 at 74785 would neutralise the near-term downside read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~2h) could shift this read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the session's main volatility risk
06:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 74,645.44
Lower highs from 75,427, higher low at 74,552.
The Asia session has unwound the overnight push. Price slid from the 75,427 asian high to a 74,361 asian low, and EMA20 crossed beneath EMA50 near that trough. The rebound was rejected at a 74,982 lower high near the 61.8% fib, and price is back below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) around $180 per bar ahead of Waller and CPI.
Support: 74,551.86, 74,360.95
Resistance: 74,794.72, 74,982.38, 75,426.84
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74,552 higher low exposes the 74,361 asian low
M15 close above the ema20 at 74,795 and the 74,982 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~2.5h) could shift this read into the London session
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility event; a hot core print is the digest's key downside risk for BTC
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 43 · price 74,582.50
Lower highs 75,427 → 74,982 inside Asian range.
Late in the Asia session, price has set lower highs under a descending trendline from the 75,427 Asian high. The bounce off the 74,361 Asian low was rejected at 74,982, just under the 61.8% retracement of the Asian drop. Price sits below the ema20 (74,806) and ema50 (74,854) with RSI(14) at 42.8, and the tape is heavy as Friday's hot payrolls weigh ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,361 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 24h low at 73,734
Close back above the 74,982 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the 61.8% fib cap
Reclaiming the ema20 at 74,806 would neutralise the intraday lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs; higher-low rebound capped below the 61.8% fib.
Asia session sold off from the 75,427 Asia high to the 74,361 Asia low, and a stepped higher-low rebound met rejection at 74,982, short of the 61.8% fib of that drop. Price sits just below a flattening EMA20 and the ema50 at 74,863 with RSI(14) back near 48, while Friday's hot payrolls keep a hawkish overhang into CPI.
What it said to watch
Close above the ema50 at 74,863 and the 74,982 rebound high breaks the Asia lower-highs line
Loss of the 74,621 higher low exposes the 74,361 Asia low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian lower highs off 75427, higher low at 74621 inside 24h range.
Late in the Asia session, BTC has slid from the 75427 Asian high to a 74361 Asian low, just above Monday's NY low. The bounce was rejected at the 74898 rebound high, the 50% retracement of that drop, leaving price under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44. The 73734–75554 24h high/low range is intact as markets digest Friday's hot payrolls ahead of today's US CPI.
Support: 74,621.00, 74,361.00
Resistance: 74,898.00, 75,427.00, 75,554.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 74621 higher low exposes the 74361 Asian low and unwinds the rebound line
An M15 close above the 74898 rebound high (50% fib) opens the path to the 75427 Asian high, with the 75554 24h high beyond
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would test the 74361 floor
05:18 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off Asia low · RSI 50 · price 74,859.93
Lower high at 75427 Asia high, Asia low 74361 held above prior NY dip; minor downline broken.
Late Asia session: the 75427 Asia high printed a lower high under yesterday's NY peak at 75554, and the slide to the 74361 Asia low held just above the 74343 NY dip. The rebound broke the Asia downline and is stalling at the 50% fib near 74898, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near $180 ahead of Waller and US CPI.
Support: 74,768.00, 74,621.00, 74,361.00
Resistance: 74,898.00, 75,020.00, 75,427.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 74898 opens the 61.8% fib at 75020, with the Asia high at 75427 above
Slip back through the 38.2% fib at 74768 and the 74621 swing low puts the 74361 Asia low back in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 47 · price 74,844.43
Lower highs 75554→75427; Asia low 74361 rejected, higher low at 74621.
Asia faded from the 75,427 Asia high to a 74,361 Asia low. That low briefly undercut the 74,412 NY swing low before buyers stepped in and printed a higher low at 74,621. Price at 74,844 sits on EMA20 near the 50% retrace of the Asian drop, still below the lower-highs trendline from the 75,554 NY high, with a softer USD the backdrop ahead of Waller and CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74,621 higher low and a break back below the 74,361 Asia low would confirm a lower-low
A close above the 75,000 round number (61.8% of the Asian drop fib) puts the 75,427 Asia high and the lower-highs trendline back in play
Clearing the 75,554 NY high invalidates the lower-highs read
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is about $190 per bar
04:32 UTC
Sideways, Asia pullback now bouncing · RSI 49 · price 74,774.93
74,340–75,550 range since NY open, lower highs at the top, floor tested three times.
Asia session faded from the 75,427 asian high into 74,361, retesting a range floor that held at 74,343 in the first hour of NY and 74,412 late NY. The 74,530 higher low has the bounce at the 38.2% retrace (~74,770), just under the ema20 and the fib 50% at 74,894. Range top at 75,554 is capped by lower highs. RSI(14) 49, ATR(14) about $181. Flow is quiet ahead of CPI after Monday's Fed-speaker-driven session.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,360 asian low breaks a range floor tested three times since NY open
Loss of the 74,530 higher low puts the 74,360 floor back in play
Reclaim of the 74,894 fib 50% and the ema20 opens the path back toward the 75,427 asian high
Close above the 75,554 range top would break the lower-highs line and register a range break
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the Asian high, bounce capped below the 38.2% fib.
Monday's NY-session high at 75,554 faded, and the Asian session has stepped lower from the 75,427 Asian high along a lower-high trendline into a 74,361 Asian low. That low sits on Monday's NY low near 74,343. The bounce stalled at 74,730, just under the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) near 32 and ATR around $185. No fresh BTC news is in the inputs, and the tape is drifting into Tuesday's US CPI.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74,361 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 74,041 London low and the 73,734 24h low
A close above the 74,730 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline; the fib 61.8 near 75,020 is the next reference, with the Asian high at 75,427 above
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session faded from the 75,427 Asia high in a chain of lower highs under a descending trendline, dropping to a 74,361 session low just above Monday's NY low near 74,343. The 74,340–75,554 range from Monday's USD-softening NY rally is still intact. The bounce off the session low is shallow, RSI(14) is near 41, and the 38.2–61.8% fib of the Asia decline (74,770–75,020) overlaps the 74,950 breakdown area.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74,361 session low and Monday's NY low at 74,343 breaks the range floor, exposing the London low at 73,734
M15 close above the 74,950 breakdown and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence, with the Asia high at 75,427 next
Asia high 75,427 and NY high 75,554 remain the range ceiling
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session, testing the session low.
BTCUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session, sliding from the 75,427 Asia high to the 74,620 Asia low. That low sits near a 78.6% retrace of the rally off the 74,412 NY swing low, with RSI(14) near 28. Overhead, the descending trendline runs through the 74,958 lower high, and the 75,554 day high from NY hours caps the 24h range.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 74,958 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asia-session lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 74,620 Asia low leaves the 74,412 NY swing low and the 74,343 NY open low next in line
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia from the 75,427 open high.
Asia session has bled lower from the 75,427 asian high in a chain of lower highs capped by a descending trendline. Price is pressing the 74,730 session low and sits just under the 61.8% retrace of the 74,412–75,427 leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37 and not oversold.
What it said to watch
A break of the 74,730 session low exposes the 74,660 late NY low, then the 74,412 NY swing low
An M15 close above the 74,958 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
A reclaim of the 75,427 asian high puts the 75,554 day high back in view
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 74,784.14
Lower highs from the 75427 Asia high, pressing a fresh Asia low.
The Asia session has printed lower highs off the 75,427 Asia high, which itself capped below the 75,554 NY high. Price is pressing a fresh Asia low near 74,766, just under the 61.8% fib of the 74,412–75,427 leg. RSI(14) is ~35 and ATR(14) about $160, with no BTC-specific catalyst ahead of today's US CPI.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 74,958 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 74,766 Asia low exposes the 74,412 swing low at the fib base
A reclaim of the 75,427 Asia high re-opens the 75,554 NY high
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 75427 under the NY high, sliding to fresh Asia session lows.
Asia session faded from a lower high at the 75,427 asia high, below the 75,554 ny high, and price is printing fresh session lows. It now sits on the 61.8% retrace of the 74,412–75,427 leg, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) about 165. The broader 74,412–75,554 range holds ahead of CPI.
What it said to watch
A close below the 74,660 swing low exposes the 74,412 ny low and breaks the higher-low sequence
A reclaim of the 75,140 lower high puts the 75,427 asia high back in play; a close above the 75,554 ny high would be a range break of the lower highs
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the 75,427 Asia high, testing the 61.8% fib.
Late in the Asian session, BTC has faded from the 75,427 Asia high, which was a rejection below the 75,554 day high. Price is now printing lower highs along a falling trendline and pressing the 61.8% fib of the 74,412–75,427 leg near 74,800. RSI(14) is at 38 and price sits below both EMAs, with ATR(14) around $160 per bar and the tape quiet ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 74,800 exposes the 74,660 swing low, then the 74,412 ny low that anchors Monday's recovery
A break of the falling trendline and a close above the 75,274 lower high would void the Asian lower-high sequence, with the 75,427 asia high and the 75,554 day high next
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 46 · price 74,966.38
Higher lows from 73,734; Asian lower highs pressing rising trendline.
The Asian session topped at 75,427, the asian high, below the 75,554 ny high. The 75,274 and 75,139 lower highs since have pushed price back onto the 74,904 asian low and the rising trendline from the 74,412 NY pullback. Price sits between EMA20 (~75,060) and EMA50 (~74,940), with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) around $170 ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
A close below the 74,904 asian low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib of the 73,734–75,554 rally at 74,858, then the 74,660 swing low.
A reclaim of the 75,139 lower high would neutralise the Asian lower-high sequence, with the 75,427 asian high and 75,554 ny high above.
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), coming after the hot NFP, could materially shift this read.
Asian range 74,832–75,330 inside Monday's 74,319–75,474 band.
Monday's NY rally stalled at 75,474, just under the window's prior high near 75,504, and the late-NY pullback held the 74,319 swing low. Since then lows have stepped higher, and the Asian range low at 74,832 sits on the 50% retrace of that recovery. Price is mid-range near 75,000 with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and no fresh crypto-specific driver, with markets squaring up ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
Close below the asian low at 74,832 breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 74,319 swing low
Close above the asian high at 75,330 puts the 75,474 prior high back in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read after the hot NFP/wages
Asia lower high under session high; holding near 50% retrace.
The grind up from the 74319 NY low topped at the 75330 session high early in the Asia session. Price has since printed a lower high at 75194 and slipped under rising support toward the 74831 session low, which sits on the 50% retrace. RSI(14) is near 47 and price sits between EMA20 and EMA50, with flow quiet ahead of tomorrow's US CPI.
Support: 74,705.00, 74,319.15
Resistance: 75,194.19, 75,330.04, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 74831 session low exposes the fib 61.8 near 74705
A break back above the 75194 lower high reopens the 75330 session high, then the 75474 NY high
Loss of 74705 brings the 74319 NY low back into view
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia range 74,871–75,330 inside a higher-low chain off 74,319.
BTC rebounded from the 73,636 London-open low to a 75,474 NY high, and NY hours left a higher-low chain from the 74,319 ny low, with the 74,565 higher low sitting near the 50% fib retracement of that leg. Early Asia is ranging between the 74,871 asia low and the 75,330 asia high, above rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and no BTC-specific news in the last 24h.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,871 asia low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 75,330 asia high opens a retest of the 75,474 ny high
Loss of the 74,565 higher low exposes the 74,319 ny low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY open, capped by 75,330–75,500.
The London-open flush to 73,636 was fully reclaimed during NY hours, with higher lows at 74,251, 74,319 and the 74,871 Asian low. Price is compressing under the 75,330 Asian high and the 75,504 Monday high ahead of Waller and US CPI, which arrive on the back of a hot NFP.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,871 Asian low breaks the higher lows trendline
Close above the 75,330 Asian high puts the 75,504 Monday high in play
Loss of the 74,319 swing low reopens the 73,600s
Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows building · RSI 58 · price 75,057.34
Early Asia session pushed to a 75,330 session high, which stalled under the 75,474–75,504 prior highs. The pullback held a 74,872 swing low, extending the rising-lows line off the 74,319 NY low. Price is mid-range after the London-open flush to 73,636 was fully retraced, with no fresh BTC news and US CPI the next driver.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,330 session high opens a retest of the 75,500 prior highs
Break of the 74,872 swing low and the rising-lows line shifts focus to the 74,720 higher low, then the 74,320 NY low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Range, short-term pullback from lower high · RSI 48 · price 74,933.48
74,300–75,500 range since NY spike; higher-low chain from 74,319 breaking down.
Early in the Asia session, price was rejected at a 75,330 asia high, a lower high under the 75,474 ny high, and slipped back below the 75,000 round number to sit on the 38.2% retrace of the 74,319–75,330 leg. The NY spike-and-fade still frames a 74,300–75,500 range, with US CPI later today the next macro driver after the hot payrolls print.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 74,890 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 74,825 and the fib 61.8% at 74,705
M15 close back above the 75,000 round number and the 75,330 asia high would restore the higher-low sequence
Close above the 75,474 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:38 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rising lows, capped below day high · RSI 53 · price 74,992.41
Higher lows from 73,636; 75,475–75,504 rejected twice.
Since Monday's 73,636 low at London open, price has printed rising lows, but the day high zone at 75,474–75,504 capped both the Asia and NY peaks despite a softer dollar. Early Asia is easing from the 75,330 late NY high toward the 38.2% fib of the late NY leg near 74,944, with the rising-lows trendline below around 74,735.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,330 late NY high puts the 75,504 day high back in play
Loss of the 74,720 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 74,319 NY low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the NY low into early Asia, below the day high.
Higher lows have stepped up from the 74319 NY low through the 74720 swing low and the 75000 round number into early Asia. Price printed a session high at 75330 and sits just under the 75474 NY high and 75504 day high, where supply capped price twice yesterday. RSI(14) near 61 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 74,720.00, 74,319.00
Resistance: 75,330.00, 75,474.00, 75,504.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 75504 day high clears the 24h range top
A break below the 75000 round number breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 50% fib near 74825
Losing the 74720 swing low exposes the 74319 NY low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read after a hot NFP
00:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing toward day high · RSI 68 · price 75,274.10
Higher lows off the 74,319 NY low inside a 73,636–75,504 day range.
Late-NY higher lows off the 74,319 NY low have lifted price to 75,274 into the Asia open. That low sits at the 61.8% of the 73,636–75,474 rebound, which ran as USD softened on lower yields. The move now sits above 75,000 psych with RSI(14) near 68, and the rising support line from the 74,565 swing low sits underneath. The NY high at 75,474 and day high at 75,504 cap the upside.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 75,504 day high breaks the 24h range top; rejection at 75,474–75,504 would leave a double test of the highs
Loss of 75,000 psych and the rising support line shifts focus back to the 74,565 swing low
Break below the 74,319 NY low and 61.8% fib undoes the higher-low chain
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read