BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a NY-session top, bounce stalling · RSI 42 · price 73,810.71
Double top at 74690–74719, neckline 74119 broken, lower high forming below the EMAs.
The NY rally was rejected twice at 74690–74719, forming a double top. The late-session drop through the 74119 neckline ran to a late low at 73386 as RSI(14) touched 27.8, in line with the heavy, hot-CPI-driven tone. The bounce has stalled near 73855, around the 38.2% fib, with price under the ema50 and EMA(20). ATR(14) has expanded to ~24,650 pips ($246) after NY close.
Support: 73,386.18, 73,303.27, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,080.88, 74,119.37, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema50 at 74081 and the 74119 neckline weakens the double top read
Failure to hold the 73386 late low exposes the 73303 ny low, then the 73113 asian low
Initial Jobless Claims and Fed speakers Thu from 13:30 UTC could reprice hike odds and shift this read
23:31 UTC
Down-leg after failed NY rally · RSI 39 · price 73,710.82
Late-NY rejection from 74,719 erased the session rally; higher low at 73,386 above the 73,303 base.
A marginal false break of the 74,690 high to a 74,719 day high met rejection after NY close, and BTC unwound most of the 73,303 NY base rally to a 73,386 late low. That flush fits the heavy post-hot-CPI tone with USD at yearly highs. Price is bouncing toward 73,720 into the Asia session, below the ema50 (74,091) and ema20 (74,144), with RSI(14) back at 38.6 from 27.8.
Support: 73,386.18, 73,303.27, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,091.14, 74,143.83, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,386 late low exposes the 73,303 NY base, then the 73,113 Asia low
M15 close back above the ema50/ema20 band at 74,091–74,144 would undo the post-rejection down-leg
Day high at 74,719 is the rejection point; reclaiming it negates the false break
ATR near 25,300 pips (~$253) keeps M15 swings wide
US jobless claims and the Fed speaker slate Thu from 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failed NY breakout, price back inside prior range.
The NY rally broke the 73,300–74,080 range and topped at the 74,718 session high. It has since retraced about 80%, with the late-session drop to a 73,386 swing low pushing price below both EMAs and RSI(14) to an oversold 27.8, as hot-CPI Fed-hike pressure keeps BTC heavy. ATR(14) has widened to ~24,800 pips (~$248) on the breakdown bar.
Support: 73,386.18, 73,303.27, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,000.00, 74,106.29
What it said to watch
Close below the 73,303 ny open low exposes the 73,113 asian low
Reclaiming the 74,000 round number and the ema50 at 74,106 would restore the range read
Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and six Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Double top at 74,690–74,720, neckline 74,120 broken, lower high in place.
After London, BTC rejected a 74,690–74,720 double top and broke the 74,120 neckline. The move erased much of the NY rally off the 73,303 NY low, left price below the ema50 and ema20, and has it testing the 61.8% retracement near 73,840 with RSI(14) at 36.4. The selling fits the hot-CPI Fed-hike backdrop that has kept BTC heavy around the 74K area.
Support: 73,771.76, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,134.59, 74,270.08
What it said to watch
A break below the 73,772 late low exposes the 73,303 NY low.
A recovery above the ema50 at 74,135 and the ema20 at 74,270 would neutralise the double top read.
Holding the 61.8% NY rally retracement near 73,840 would keep the pullback corrective.
Jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read.
22:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after a rejected NY high, below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 74,012.49
Double top at 74,690–74,720 with the 74,119 higher low broken.
A NY-session double bottom at 73,303 (ny low) drove price to 74,690. After the NY close, a retest of that high made a 74,719 session high and was rejected. Price has since unwound through the 74,119 higher low and below the ema20 and ema50, and now sits on the 50% retracement of the NY rally near 74,010. RSI(14) is at 40 and ATR(14) is 21,945 pips (about $219), with the hot-CPI Fed-hike repricing keeping the tape heavy.
Support: 73,843.97, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,146.01, 74,313.81, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema50 at 74,146 would reclaim the broken 74,119 higher low and weaken the double top read
The ema20 at 74,314 is rolling over; a recovery above it would neutralise the pullback
Failure to hold the 73,962 late low and the 61.8% fib at 73,844 exposes the 73,303 ny low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) and the Fed-speaker slate could shift the read; Fri Core PPI is the main catalyst
22:31 UTC
Range after NY rally, momentum cooling · RSI 47 · price 74,199.29
74,120–74,720 range; rejection at session high, testing floor.
The double low at 73,303 around the NY open gave way to a rally to 74,690. BTC has since ranged 74,120–74,720, with a rejection from the 74,719 session high late in NY, despite the post-CPI heaviness in the digest. RSI(14) has cooled from 72 to 46.7, and price now sits below ema20 (74,347) but above ema50 (74,152), near the swing low at the range floor.
Support: 74,152.16, 74,119.37, 74,011.00
Resistance: 74,347.31, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,119 swing low breaks the range floor and exposes the fib 50% of the NY rally near 74,011
Reclaim of ema20 at 74,347 returns focus to the 74,719 session high
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could shift this read
22:16 UTC
Uptrend after NY breakout, momentum cooling · RSI 53 · price 74,420.04
Higher lows from 73,303; equal-ish highs 74,690/74,719 capping.
Price broke out of the overnight 73,100–74,080 range during NY hours from a 73,303 base. It printed 74,690, then a marginal 74,719 session high, and has eased back to sit just above the ema20 at 74,362, with RSI(14) cooled from 72 to 53 and ATR compressing to about 21,200 pips. The bid on this timeframe runs against the heavy post-CPI tone in the crypto digest. Supply has capped price twice near 74,700.
Support: 74,361.74, 74,268.21, 74,119.37
Resistance: 74,718.71, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
Loss of the 74,268 pullback low, then the 74,119 swing low, breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the NY rally fib 61.8% near 73,844 into view
A sustained M15 close above the 74,719 session high opens the path to the 75,000 round number
Thursday's US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, the Fed speaker slate, and fallout from the MSCI Strategy index decision could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum fading after rejection at highs · RSI 50 · price 74,340.13
NY higher-low chain from 73,303 intact; false break above 74,690 prior high rejected.
NY session cleared the London high at 74,081 off a 73,303 double low and held a higher low at the 74,119 swing low. The push to a 74,719 session high was a false break of the 74,690 prior high and was rejected, which keeps this read heavy against the post-CPI backdrop. Price now sits below the ema20 at 74,360 and above the ema50 at 74,140, with RSI(14) cooling from 72 to 50 and ATR near $215.
Support: 74,119.37, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,360.12, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
The MSCI review of Strategy (MSTR), due 22:00 UTC with the current bar, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 74,119 swing low breaks the NY rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the london high at 74,081
An M15 close above the 74,719 session high would negate the false break
Reclaiming the ema20 at 74,360 would ease the rejection read; 74,178 is the NY rally fib 38.2% level
NY higher lows off 73,303; rejection at session high.
The NY rally held twice at 73,303 after the hot-CPI selling, then cleared the London high at 74,081. The 21:30 UTC push to a marginal new session high at 74,719 was rejected back toward the ema20 at 74,367, with RSI(14) easing to 53.7 from 64.8. ATR is about $219.
Support: 74,366.64, 74,119.37, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,718.71, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
MSCI review of Strategy/MSTR at 22:00 UTC, minutes away, could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the ema20 at 74,367 opens a test of the 74,119 swing low, which sits near the ema50 and the 38.2% of the NY rally (~74,178)
Failure to hold the 74,119 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and puts the London high at 74,081 in play
An M15 close above the 74,719 session high negates the rejection and brings the 75,000 psych level into view
21:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 65 · price 74,650.79
Higher lows off 73,303 double bottom; retesting 74,690 high.
BTC has worked off its post-CPI heaviness. The NY rally from a double bottom at 73,303 cleared the London high near 74,080 and set a 74,690 session high, and the 74,119 pullback held as a higher low at the ema50. Late in the NY session price is back testing the session high, above the ema20 at 74,364, with RSI(14) at 64.8 and ATR compressing to about $211.
Support: 74,364.18, 74,119.37
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,690 session high extends the higher-low chain and opens the 75,000 round number
Rejection at 74,690 followed by a loss of the ema20 at 74,364 would mark a double test of the high
Failure to hold the 74,119 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence from 73,303
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC tonight could jolt sentiment around the session high
Higher-low chain from 73,303 double low, retesting 74,690 session high.
A double low at 73,303 during NY hours gave way to a rally through the Asian range top near 74,080 to a 74,690 session high. BTC is holding steady despite the hot-CPI drag as tech stocks bought the dip. Price is now retesting that high with a 74,119 swing low beneath, holding above the ema20 at 74,337, with RSI(14) at 64.9 and ATR(14) easing to about $218.
Support: 74,337.16, 74,119.37, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,690 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 75,000 psych level
Failure to hold the 74,119 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC (Strategy/Metaplanet deletion risk) could jolt this read
A move back below the 73,303 double low would negate the NY rebound structure
Higher lows off the NY double bottom, retesting session high.
Early NY double-bottomed at 73,303 as post-CPI selling exhausted. The NY rally then cleared the Asian range and the 74,081 London high, printing higher lows at 74,119 (swing low). Price is now retesting the 74,690 session high above a rising ema20, with RSI(14) at 64, below its 71.9 peak despite a higher close, a mild bearish divergence into the test.
Support: 74,119.37, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,690 session high opens the 75,000 round number
Loss of the 74,119 swing low breaks the higher lows chain, with the 74,081 London high and the 50% NY rally fib (~73,996) below
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC tonight could jolt sentiment around the session high
ATR(14) near $224 and compressing from $284, so the retest is running on narrower ranges
The NY session rally ran from a double low at 73303 to a 74690 session high, reclaiming $74K as the post-CPI long flush stabilised. Since then price has compressed on higher lows from the 74119 swing low, under a 74545 range top, and holds above the ema20 at 74277. RSI(14) sits at 58.7 and ATR is easing to about $219.
Support: 74,277.33, 74,119.37, 74,061.40
Resistance: 74,545.00, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74545 range top reopens the 74690 session high
Loss of the 74119 swing low breaks the higher lows and exposes the ema50 at 74061, the 50% of the NY rally
MSCI review at 22:00 UTC tonight could jolt this compressed range
20:32 UTC
Uptrend since NY breakout, momentum cooling · RSI 60 · price 74,427.04
NY session cleared the Asian and London highs near 74080 after a double low at 73303 and tagged a 74690 session high. Since then BTC has held a 74120–74570 band, sitting above the ema20 (74263) and ema50 (74047), with the 74119 swing low holding near the 38.2% fib of the NY leg. RSI(14) has cooled from 71.9 to 60 and ATR(14) has compressed to about $229 as price stabilises after the hot-CPI long flush.
Support: 74,262.62, 74,119.37, 74,046.88
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
A close below the 74119 swing low exposes the ema50 at 74047 and the old London high near 74080
A break of the 74573 range top puts the 74690 session high back in play
MSCI review at 22:00 UTC tonight (MSTR deletion) could jolt sentiment inside the late-NY range
NY range break above 74,080, higher low at 74,119.
BTC spent Asia and London capped in a 73,100–74,080 range as the hot-CPI backdrop kept it heavy. The NY open broke the range top and ran to a 74,690 session high, with RSI(14) peaking at 71.9. The late-NY pullback held the 74,119 swing low above the old range top, and price is back above the ema20 at 74,243, pressing the 74,573 prior high with RSI at 61.8 and ATR(14) 23,572 pips (~$236).
Support: 74,242.90, 74,119.37, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,690 session high extends the higher-high chain
Close back below the 74,119 swing low and the 74,081 range top undoes the breakout read
Rejection at the 74,573 prior high would leave a lower high under the session high
MSCI review at 22:00 UTC (MSTR deletion) could jolt BTC sentiment within the next few bars
NY breakout above 74,080 London high, consolidating 74,120–74,690.
From 15:30 UTC the NY session broke the day's 73,300–74,080 range, pushing through the $74K cap that had held since the post-CPI sell-off and printing a session high at 74,690. RSI(14) has cooled from 72 to 57, and the 74,119 swing low held near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib. Price sits above ema20 at 74,218 and ema50 at 74,012, with a lower high at 74,573 capping the bounce and ATR(14) near $233.
Support: 74,217.73, 74,119.37, 74,012.00
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC (Strategy deletion) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 74,119 swing low breaks the rally trendline and exposes ema50 near 74,012
Close above the 74,573 lower high and the 74,690 session high resumes the NY breakout leg
NY breakout above London high, now consolidating below 74,690 session high.
NY session put in a double bottom at 73,303, then broke the London high at 74,081 and ran to a 74,690 session high. That lifted BTC back above the $74K cap despite the hot-CPI backdrop. Late in NY hours price is consolidating above the ema20 (74,206) and the 38.2% fib of that rally, capped by a lower high at 74,573, with RSI(14) cooled to 59.8 from 71.9 and ATR(14) at 24,241.5 pips (~$242).
Support: 74,206.11, 74,119.37, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,119 swing low brings a retest of the london high at 74,081 into play, with ema50 at 73,999 near the 50% fib
M15 close above the 74,573 lower high reopens the 74,690 session high
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC (~2h), with Strategy marked for deletion, could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 74,270.21
NY breakout above London high, now lower highs into 38.2% fib.
NY session twice held 73,303, then broke the London high at 74,081 and printed a session high of 74,690, where it was rejected. Price has since formed lower highs and is holding the 38.2% fib and swing low near 74,120, just under ema20 at 74,187. RSI(14) has cooled from 71.9 to 58 and ATR(14) is 24,792 pips (~$248). BTC is still carrying the hot-CPI hike pricing, and the MSCI ruling on Strategy is the next driver.
Support: 74,186.64, 74,119.37, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
Loss of the 74,119 swing low and the 74,081 london high opens the 50% fib near 73,996, with ema50 at 73,983 just below
M15 close above the 74,573 lower high breaks the pullback's lower-high chain and brings the 74,690 session high back into view
MSCI index review on Strategy at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Uptrend since NY open, pulling back · RSI 54 · price 74,206.28
Breakout from 73303 double bottom, now a lower high under the session high.
NY double bottom at 73,303, breakout above London high, now a tight range under the session high.
A NY-session double bottom at 73,303 drove a breakout through the London high near 74,081 to a 74,690 session high. Price is now compressing in a 74,318–74,573 range above the ema20 (74,168), with RSI(14) eased to 64 from 71.9 and ATR(14) down to 24,210.8 pips (~$242), as crowded downside positioning meets tonight's MSCI ruling on Strategy.
Support: 74,318.16, 74,168.20, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 74,318 range low exposes the ema20 at 74,168, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rally
Failure to hold the 74,081 London high puts price back inside the prior intraday range
Close above the 74,573 range high reopens the 74,690 session high
MSCI review release at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NY breakout above London high, higher lows holding beneath session high.
BTC slid from the London high at 74081 into a double bottom at 73303 early in the NY session, then broke above the London high and printed a session high at 74690. It is still holding the post-CPI recovery the digest describes. Price is now consolidating above the ema20 at 74142, with the pullback low at 74318 holding and a lower high at 74573 capping. RSI(14) has cooled from 71.9 to 66.5 and ATR is easing to about $248 per bar.
Support: 74,318.16, 74,141.69, 74,081.42
Resistance: 74,572.87, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74690 session high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 74318 pullback low exposes the ema20 at 74142
Close back below the london high at 74081 returns price to the pre-breakout range
MSCI index decision on Strategy at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the NY double bottom; shallow pullback from the session high.
NY session printed a double bottom at the 73,303 NY low, then the NY rally broke the London high at 74,081 and reached a 74,690 session high. BTC is holding near $74K despite the hot CPI. RSI(14) has cooled from 71.9 to 64.4 on a shallow pullback that held 74,318, with price above both EMAs and ATR at about 25,280 pips ($253).
Support: 74,318.16, 74,081.42, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 74,318 pullback low opens a retest of the London high and ema20 zone at 74,081–74,108
A close above the 74,690 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 75,000 round number
Loss of the 73,303 NY low negates the double bottom
The MSCI ruling on Strategy at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break above 74,080, lower highs off session high.
BTC double-bottomed at the 73,303 NY low near the NY open, then broke the 74,050–74,080 range top that had capped the Asian and London sessions. The move came as easing ETF selling let BTC shrug off the hot CPI print. Since the 74,690 session high, price has printed a lower high at 74,565, and RSI(14) has cooled from 71.9 to 63.2, with ATR(14) around $262 per bar.
Support: 74,080.00, 73,899.84, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,564.88, 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
MSCI index review at 22:00 UTC on the Strategy deletion could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 74,080 range top would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the ema50 at 73,900, near the 61.8% fib, exposes the 73,303 NY low
Close above the 74,690 session high opens the path to the 75,000 round number
NY breakout above London high, pulling back below session high.
BTC built a double bottom at the 73303 NY low and rallied through the London high at 74081 to a 74690 session high, looking past the hot CPI-driven dollar bid as ETF outflows eased. Price is now backing off under a 74565 lower high, RSI(14) cooling from 71.9 to 67.7, with the London high and ema20 near 74050–74080 the first shelf below and ATR expanded at ~27,100 pips ($271).
Support: 74,081.42, 74,049.02, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,564.88, 74,689.75
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the London high at 74081 and the ema20 at 74049 would undo the NY breakout
Close above the 74565 lower high and the 74690 session high resumes the NY rally structure
MSCI Strategy index decision at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 73303 NY low invalidates the double bottom
NY breakout above prior range top, higher-high/higher-low chain from 73,303.
A NY-session double bottom at 73,303 gave way to a breakout through the 74,080 prior high, which had capped price since London open, and printed a 74,690 session high. RSI(14) is overbought at 71.9 and ATR(14) has expanded to ~$279. The move fits the digest's squeeze above $74K as ETF selling eases, despite USD strength after the hot CPI.
Support: 74,311.16, 74,007.97
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 74,080 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 74,311 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ema20 near 74,008
Close above the 74,690 session high opens the 75,000 round number
Break of the rising trendline from the 73,303 double bottom would end the NY rally structure
MSCI Strategy index decision at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Uptrend after NY breakout, stalling at highs · RSI 69 · price 74,396.07
Range break above 74,080, higher lows since the 73,303 NY low.
BTC held the 73,303 NY low twice, then broke the overnight range top at 74,080 during NY hours. That fits the digest's read: hot CPI barely dented BTC and downside positioning is crowded. The latest closed bar tagged a 74,690 session high and left a long upper wick, a rejection, with RSI(14) at 69.3, just under overbought, price above a rising ema20 at 73,954 and ATR(14) about $281 per bar.
Support: 74,080.00, 73,954.18, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,689.75, 75,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 74,080 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 74,690 session high reopens the 75,000 round number
Loss of ema20 and the rising trendline puts the 73,303 ny low back in focus
Strategy's MSCI index verdict, due imminently, could shift this read
17:16 UTC
Uptrend, NY breakout extending · RSI 66 · price 74,320.15
Higher lows above the 73303 double low; Asian range top and prior high broken.
Early NY hours built a double low at 73303. Price then broke through the Asian range top and the 74080 prior high to a session high at 74371, and now sits near 74320 above both EMAs with RSI(14) at 66.1. The pop fits the digest's crowded-downside squeeze setup despite the hot CPI. ATR(14) has expanded to ~26,800 pips ($268) from ~18,200, and dips since the breakout have held above the rising trendline near 74030.
Support: 73,906.93, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,371.10, 74,500.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 74080 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline near 74030 exposes the ema20 at 73907 and the NY leg fib 50% near 73837
Acceptance above the 74371 session high opens the 74500 round number
Break back below the 73303 double low invalidates the breakout structure
Strategy's MSCI verdict, due imminently, could materially shift this read
NY double bottom at 73,303 broke out above London high; holding 74,100–74,350.
A NY-session double bottom at the 73,303 NY low gave way to a ~$1,070 rally to a 74,371 session high, clearing the Asian range and the London high at 74,081 against a heavy post-CPI backdrop. Price is consolidating 74,100–74,350 above both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 63.8 after a 67.4 peak and ATR(14) expanded to 27,066 pips (~$271).
Support: 74,081.42, 73,868.48, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,371.10
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 74,081 london high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 74,371 session high extends the NY up-leg
Loss of ema20 at 73,868, near the 50% of the NY rally fib, reopens the NY low
Strategy MSCI verdict is due imminently and could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below NY high · RSI 63 · price 74,144.35
Double bottom at 73,303, breakout above London high, lower highs under 74,371.
BTC built a double bottom at 73,303 early in the NY session and broke above the 74,081 London high, despite the heavy post-CPI backdrop. The move left a long upper wick at the 74,371 session high, and the last bars are printing marginally lower highs beneath it. RSI(14) is 62.5, up from a 35.8 low, and ATR(14) has expanded to 27,872 pips (~$279), with price holding above a rising ema20 at 73,835 that lines up with the 50% retrace of the NY rally.
Support: 74,081.42, 73,834.81, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,371.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,371 session high extends the breakout from the double bottom
Close back below the 74,081 london high would mark a false break and expose ema20 / 50% of the NY rally fib near 73,835
Loss of the 73,303 double btm negates the intraday reversal
Strategy MSCI verdict due imminently could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, breaking out of day range · RSI 67 · price 74,216.27
NY broke the 73,300–74,080 range top; higher lows since 73,303.
BTC spent London capped below the 74,080 prior high. Early NY then printed a double bottom at the 73,303 ny low. The 15:30 UTC spike to a 74,371 session high cleared the range top, and the last two bars are holding above it with RSI(14) at 67.4 and ATR expanding to about $284. Price sits above the ema20 at 73,803. The bounce comes despite a heavy post-CPI tone, with the Strategy MSCI verdict still pending.
Support: 73,802.76, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,371.10, 74,500.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 74,080 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ny higher lows trendline and the ema20 at 73,803 exposes the 73,303 ny low
Clearance of the 74,371 session high opens the 74,500 round number
Strategy MSCI index verdict, due imminently, could materially shift this read
NY double bottom at 73,303, breakout above London high.
NY session double-bottomed at the 73,303 NY low. The 15:30 UTC spike to the 74,371 spike high saw rejection, but the 16:00 bar still closed back above the 74,081 London high and the $74K pivot that has capped BTC since the hot CPI print. RSI(14) has recovered from 35.8 to 64.2 and ATR(14) is expanding to 28,281 pips (~$283), with price above the ema20 at 73,756 and the ema50; the 74,244 recent high is the nearest cap.
Support: 74,081.42, 73,756.49, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,244.24, 74,371.10
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 74,081 London high would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the 74,371 spike high clears the session high and extends the NY higher-low sequence
Loss of the ema20 at 73,756 shifts focus back to the 73,303 NY low
MSCI verdict on Strategy, due within hours, could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Range, NY recovery off session lows · RSI 58 · price 73,970.54
73303–74081 intraday range; NY spike above range top rejected.
NY session printed a double bottom at the 73303 NY low, then a 15:30 UTC spike swept the 74081 London high to a 74371 spike high and was rejected. That false break leaves price back under the $74K cap the digest ties to hot CPI and ETF outflows. Price holds above a flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 73720, RSI(14) has recovered to 57.9 and ATR(14) has expanded to 27306.5 pips (~$273).
Support: 73,718.82, 73,303.27
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,371.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74081 London high reopens the 74371 spike high
Slip back below ema20 at 73719 returns price to mid-range
Failure to hold the 73303 NY low breaks the double bottom
MSCI verdict on Strategy, due within hours, could jolt sentiment
15:46 UTC
Range, rebounding from NY low · RSI 56 · price 73,869.65
False break above london high, back inside the 73,300–74,080 range.
During the London-NY transition, the 15:30 UTC bar spiked through the london high at 74,081 to a spike high of 74,371, then was rejected back to 73,850. That leaves a false break, and ATR(14) has expanded to 27,017 pips (~$270). Price holds above the ema20 (73,699) and ema50 (73,716) after two NY tests of the 73,303 ny low, with RSI(14) recovering to 56 from 35.8, while the tone stays heavy after the hot US CPI.
Support: 73,715.60, 73,303.27, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,371.10
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 74,081 london high would negate the false-break read and put the 74,371 spike high back in play
Loss of the ema50 at 73,716 returns price to the middle of the range; a break of the 73,303 ny low exposes the 73,113 asian low
Strategy MSCI index verdict, due within hours, could materially shift this read
Rejection holds while price stays below the 50% level of the spike fib near 73,837
Lower highs since the 74,053 London peak, double test of 73,303.
London cleared the Asian range high and printed 74,081, but every high since has been lower. NY hours dropped price to the 73,303 session low, where buyers stepped in twice, and BTC stayed heavy after the hot CPI. Price is back near 73,600, below the ema20 and ema50 after a bearish ema cross, with RSI(14) recovering from 35.8 and ATR(14) expanding to about $227.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,682.32, 73,709.97, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,303 session low exposes the 73,113 asian low and the 73,000 round number
An M15 close back above the ema20 / ema50 (73,682–73,710), near the 50% retracement of the London-NY drop, would challenge the lower-highs read
Only a reclaim of the 74,081 london high would reverse the intraday structure
Strategy MSCI index verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 44 · price 73,487.07
London double top at 74,050–74,080, lower-high chain into NY-open low at 73,303.
London cleared the Asian high but formed a double top at 74,081/74,053. Lower highs followed into a NY-open drop to the 73,303 ny low, with price now below the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) 43.5 after a 35.8 dip and ATR(14) expanding to 22,285 pips. Rebounds are stalling at the ema20 near the 50% fib of the London-high-to-NY-low leg, with post-CPI USD strength weighing on the tape.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,693.30, 73,715.36, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 73,693 and the ema50 at 73,715 reclaims the 50% fib and breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 73,303 ny low exposes the 73,113 asian low, then the 72,630 prior low
Strategy MSCI index verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 74,081 london high would invalidate the double top read
15:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 39 · price 73,542.01
False break above the Asian high, then lower highs into NY.
London pushed through the Asian high (73,932) to a 74,081 london high and was rejected. Price then printed lower highs into the first hour of NY, which set a 73,303 session low. Price is back under ema20 and ema50, with the 20 now crossing below the 50; RSI(14) is at 39 and ATR has widened to about $217 as the hot-CPI hike repricing keeps BTC heavy. The 73,113 asian low is still untested.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,706.81, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,303 session low exposes the 73,113 asian low, then the 72,630 prior low near the 11-week floor
Reclaim of ema20 at 73,707 and a hold back above it would break the lower-high sequence
Recovery back above the 73,932 asian high negates the London false break
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Heavy, slipping below a flat EMA cluster · RSI 42 · price 73,513.04
London range broken lower at NY open, back inside Asian range.
The NY open knocked BTC out of its 73,640–74,000 London range to a 73,303 NY low, where a long-wicked rejection pulled price back inside the Asian range. Price sits below the flat ema cluster near 73,730, with RSI(14) at 42.3 and ATR(14) expanding to 21,145 pips. The London high at 74,081 capped twice, and the tape stays heavy after the hot CPI repricing.
Support: 73,303.27, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,730.36, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,303 NY low exposes the 73,113 asia low
Reclaim of the 73,730 ema cluster restores the London range read
Only a break above the 74,081 london high neutralises the intraday lower-high sequence
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 36 · price 73,503.05
London high rejected; slipping back into the Asian range.
BTC recovered from yesterday's post-CPI prior low at 72,630 and London briefly cleared the Asian range high, but the 74,081 London high was rejected. Lower highs since then have dragged price below the flattening EMAs into the NY session. Price now sits near the 38.2% of the recovery fib with a fresh NY low at 73,405, RSI(14) at 35.8 and ATR(14) about $194.
Support: 73,405.16, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,747.35, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,405 ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 73,113 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 73,747 and a break of the lower highs line neutralises the pullback read
Close back above the 74,081 london high reopens the recovery leg
Strategy MSCI verdict is due within hours and could materially shift this read; prior low 72,630 is the deeper reference
14:16 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower from London high · RSI 41 · price 73,618.93
Lower highs since 74,081 London high, early NY pressing the session lows.
BTC is holding the $73-74K band after the hot CPI print, but the London high at 74,081 was rejected and a lower-highs line has capped price since. Early NY slipped below the ema20 (73,779) and ema50 (73,750), set a NY low at 73,555 and sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) easing to 40.8 and ATR around $191.
Support: 73,555.00, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,778.63, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,473 london low opens the 61.8% retrace and the 73,113 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 73,779 and a break of the lower-highs line would undo the drift lower
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours is headline risk for this read
Range 73,470–74,080 since London, lower highs since 10:30 UTC.
BTC is still heavy after the hot-CPI flush to 72,630 yesterday. It has been boxed in 73,470–74,080 since London, with a double top at 74,053–74,081 (london high) and a chain of lower highs since 10:30 UTC. The NY open dip to 73,582 held near the 50% fib, but the last close sits below ema20 (73,799) and ema50 (73,756) with RSI at 46 and ATR around $187.
Support: 73,581.97, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,798.60, 74,053.45, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
Loss of the ny open low at 73,582 exposes the london low at 73,473, the 61.8% fib
A break below 73,473 confirms the double top and brings the asia low at 73,113 into view
A close above ema20 and the lower-highs trendline reopens the double top zone at 74,053–74,081
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the London high, midday range floor lost.
BTC was rejected twice near the 74,050–74,080 London high and printed lower highs. The 73,740–74,050 midday range broke lower into the NY approach, putting price under the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 43.6. The heavy tone after the hot CPI and ETF outflows keeps the intraday low at 73,582 and the London low at 73,473 in focus, with ATR(14) near 18,600 pips ($186) per bar.
Support: 73,581.97, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,757.96, 73,807.73, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ema50 at 73,758 and ema20 at 73,808 negates the range break
Loss of the 73,473 London low exposes the 73,113 Asian low
Break of the lower highs trendline near 73,990 reopens the 74,081 London high
Price is at the 61.8–78.6% retracement of the 73,473–74,053 London swing; holding here keeps the swing intact
Higher lows pressing into a flat 74,050–74,080 cap.
Since Tuesday's 72,630 low, BTC has printed a chain of higher lows: the 73,113 Asian low, the 73,473 London low and the 73,642 swing low at the London-NY transition. Supply capped the London high at 74,081 and again at 74,053 late in London. The last close sits between EMA20 (73,822) and EMA50 (73,762), RSI(14) is a neutral 47.9 and ATR has eased to about 18,540 pips ($185), with the tape heavy after hot CPI and ETF outflows.
Support: 73,641.90, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,822.46, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,642 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 73,473 london low exposes the 73,113 asian low
Close above the 74,081 london high ends the double cap and opens the 74,718 prior high
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
Compressed range 73640–74080 since London, higher lows.
The hot US CPI print knocked BTC from the 74,502 cpi high to 72,630, and price has since recovered to trade above a rising ema20 (73,829) and ema50. Since the 74,081 london high it has compressed into a 73,640–74,080 range with higher lows: 73,473 london low, then the 73,642 swing low taken out and reclaimed in the last bar into the London-NY transition. RSI 54 is neutral and ATR near $190 per bar.
Support: 73,828.74, 73,641.90, 73,473.09
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 74,081 london high breaks the range top and brings the 74,502 cpi high into view
Loss of the 73,642 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 73,473 london low
Sustained trade below ema20 at 73,829 would mark the range rolling over
London false break above Asian range, lower high at 74053, rotating lower.
London took out the Asian range top near 73933 to a 74081 London high, then printed a 74053 lower high. Into the London-NY transition, price is probing the 61.8% fib of the rally from the 73473 London low, near 73694. The last close sat between the ema20 at 73823 and the ema50 at 73757, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near $185, after yesterday's hot-CPI flush to 72630.
Support: 73,756.56, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,822.86, 74,053.45, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema50 and the 73473 london low reopens the 73113 asian low
Recovery through the ema20 and the 74053 lower high puts the 74081 london high back in play
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
NY open liquidity could extend the rotation either side of the 61.8% fib
12:46 UTC
Higher lows, capped below range top · RSI 54 · price 73,943.57
Higher-low chain since London low, pressing Asian range high.
BTC is back inside the Asian range of 73,113–74,081 after the post-CPI flush to 72,630. London printed higher lows at the 73,473 london low and the 73,742 swing low, while supply capped the 74,053 london high just under the asian high. Price holds above the ema20 (73,825) and ema50 (73,755), with RSI(14) at 54.3 and ATR(14) around $184 (18,443 pips) compressed into the NY open.
Support: 73,825.40, 73,741.79, 73,473.09
Resistance: 74,053.45, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 asian high breaks the Asian range and the London cap
Break of the rising trendline and the 73,742 swing low ends the higher-low chain; ema20 at 73,825 is first in the way
Loss of the 73,473 london low reopens the Asian range floor near 73,113
Strategy MSCI verdict due within hours could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the Asian low compressing under a flat London high.
The hot-CPI flush to 72,630 has been retraced. Price is building higher lows from the 73,113 Asian low, and London has twice been rejected just under the 74,081 london high. Price holds above a rising ema20 at 73,820, the 09:30 UTC london low at 73,473 sat on the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London leg, RSI(14) is a neutral 54.7 and ATR(14) is about 182 USD (18,163 pips) into the NY open.
Support: 73,820.00, 73,473.09
Resistance: 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 london high breaks the flat top and opens the 74,718 cpi high
Loss of the 73,741 swing low and the higher-lows trendline turns the compression lower
Break below the 73,473 london low undoes the 61.8% retrace hold of the Asia-London leg
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the CPI low; London range 73,470–74,080, compressing below the session high.
BTC has rebuilt from the hot-CPI flush to 72,630, printing higher lows at the Asian low (73,113) and the London low (73,473), and now holds above a rising ema20 (73,813). Late London is compressing just under the 74,081 session high after a 74,053 retest, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.9 and ATR(14) easing to ~$178.
Support: 73,813.41, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 session high opens the 74,719 cpi spike high
Loss of ema20 at 73,813 and then the 73,473 london low breaks the higher-low chain
Break below the 73,113 asian low puts the 72,630 post-CPI low back in focus
ATR compression into the NY open sets up a range expansion; no high-impact US data today
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed-speaker slate could shift the read
BTC has recovered from the 72,630 low that followed Tuesday's hot CPI. London cleared the Asian range high, but supply has capped the 74,050–74,080 london high twice, and late in the London session price is coiling around the 61.8% fib of the CPI drop at 73,921. Higher lows from the 73,113 asian low and the 73,473 swing low hold price above a rising ema20 at 73,808, with RSI(14) a neutral 55.7 and ATR(14) compressing to about $177.
Support: 73,808.01, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,920.80, 74,081.42, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 london high breaks the cap and opens the gap toward the 74,719 cpi high
Close below the 73,473 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 73,113 asian low
Sustained trade below the ema20 at 73,808 would signal the coil resolving lower
NY open with no high-impact data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
Higher-low sequence from 72,630 compressing under 74,050–74,080 session high.
BTC has rebuilt from the 72,630 low hit after yesterday's hot US CPI. It printed higher lows at the 73,113 Asian low and the 73,473 swing low on the London dip, and now sits in a tight 73,820–74,050 band just under the 74,081 London session high. Price holds above a rising ema20 (73,798) and the ema50, with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR(14) near 18,270 pips (~$183).
Support: 73,798.16, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 session high opens the path toward the 74,719 post-CPI high (cpi high)
Loss of the rising-lows trendline and the ema20 near 73,798 puts the 73,473 swing low back in focus
A break below the 73,113 Asian low undoes the higher-low sequence since the CPI flush
No US data today. Thursday's 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalyst
BTC has recovered from the hot-CPI flush to 72,630 with higher lows since the Asian low at 73,113. London broke above the Asian range and is now retesting its 74,081 session high, which sits just above the 61.8% retrace of the post-CPI drop (~73,920). Price holds above a rising ema20 at 73,784, RSI(14) is a neutral 56.9 and ATR(14) is ~$192 per bar; the post-CPI high at 74,719 is the next reference above.
Support: 73,784.01, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 london high breaks the London double-top cap and exposes the 74,719 post-CPI high
Close back below the ema20 at 73,784 turns the 61.8% retest into a rejection
Loss of the 73,473 london low breaks the rising lows chain and points back to the 73,113 asian low
NY open in ~2h could expand the London range
11:16 UTC
Recovering, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 58 · price 73,946.56
Higher lows since the 73,113 Asian low, highs capped near 74,050–74,080.
Mid-London, BTC sits at the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's hot-CPI flush from 74,719 to 72,630. Lows have stepped up from the 73,113 Asian low to the 73,473 swing low, while London was rejected twice at the 74,050–74,080 london high. Price holds above the ema20 (73,770) and ema50 (73,717), with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR(14) at about 19,200 pips ($192) per bar.
Support: 73,769.53, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,080 london high breaks the flat cap and opens the path toward the 74,720 cpi high
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 73,473 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Close below the 73,113 asian low reopens the CPI flush lows near 72,630
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri Core PPI are the next macro tests; a hot print could reverse the retracement
London range 73473–74081, trading above Asian high.
BTC has recovered from the hot-CPI flush to 72630 and is back above the Asian high near 73930. London has met supply twice at the 74050–74081 london high, while higher lows off the Asian low hold along rising support with price above a rising ema20 at 73750. RSI(14) sits at 58.5 and ATR(14) is about $197.
Support: 73,473.09
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74081 london high breaks the London range and opens a path toward the 74719 ny high from the CPI session
Slip back below the asian high at 73930 puts the ema20 at 73750 back in focus
Loss of the 73473 london low breaks rising support and the higher-low sequence
No US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims is the next scheduled catalyst
The rebound from the post-CPI low at 72,630 has built a higher-low chain: Asian low 73,113, then a London swing low at 73,473. Late in the London session price is retesting the London high at 74,081 and printed 74,053, holding above the ema20 (73,729) and ema50 with RSI(14) at a neutral 57.5. ATR(14) is about $196 per bar.
Support: 73,729.01, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,372.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 74,081 London high opens the 74,372 pre-CPI high
A second rejection under 74,081 leaves a flat top over the higher-low line
Break below the 73,473 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 73,113 Asian low
Loss of the ema20 at 73,729 puts price back into the mid-range chop
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri Core PPI, could shift the read around the 73,000 level the digest flags
London range 73,445–74,081, higher low at 73,473, retesting top.
BTC is pressing 74,000 again mid-London, retesting the London high at 74,081 that capped the first push at 08:00 UTC. It has climbed back from the post-CPI flush low at 72,630, with the London hl at 73,473 forming above the 73,445 London open low and the Asian low at 73,113 well below. Price sits above a flat ema20 and ema50, RSI 57.2 is neutral and ATR is ~$200.
Support: 73,708.42, 73,473.09, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,501.95, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the London high at 74,081 breaks the London range and brings the cpi spike at 74,502 and the post-CPI cpi high at 74,719 into view
Rejection at 74,081 again keeps the range intact back toward the ema20 at 73,708
Failure of the London hl at 73,473 undoes the higher-low sequence and exposes the Asian low at 73,113
No US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri core PPI are the next catalysts for the hot-CPI repricing
10:16 UTC
Sideways after a rejected London push · RSI 49 · price 73,639.90
London false break of Asian high, lower highs inside the Asian range.
London lifted price above the Asian high to 74,081 at 08:00 UTC, but the move was rejected. Price has since printed lower highs back inside the 73,113–73,933 Asian range and sits just below a flat ema20/ema50 pair near 73,680. RSI(14) at 48.7 and ATR(14) of 19,269 pips (about $193 a bar) show rotation, with BTC still heavy below $74K after yesterday's hot CPI.
Support: 73,473.09, 73,113.48, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,932.58, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,800 lower-highs line and the 73,933 asian high reopens the 74,081 london high
Failure to hold the 73,473 london low exposes the 73,113 asian low
Loss of the 73,000 psych level, flagged in the news digest as key support, would extend the post-CPI downswing
No US data today. Thursday's 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next catalysts that could reset this read
Lower highs below London high, inside the Asian range.
After the hot US CPI flush to 72,630, the recovery stalled near the 61.8% of the post-CPI drop. London open pushed briefly above the Asian range to a 74,081 london high and met rejection. Since then price has printed lower highs at 73,800 and 73,710, holding the 50% level around 73,670. Flat EMAs, RSI 50.9 and ATR compressing to about $194 (19,361 pips) point to a mid-range market with no setup in play.
Support: 73,473.09, 73,113.48, 73,000.00
Resistance: 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,473 london low exposes the 73,113 asian low and the 73,000 psych floor flagged by analysts
Close above the 73,800 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 74,081 london high near the 61.8% fib
No US data today; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
09:46 UTC
Heavy, below flat EMAs · RSI 45 · price 73,567.98
Failed break of Asian range high, lower highs back inside range.
Early London pushed through the Asian high at 73,932 to a london high of 74,081. The break failed, and price slid back inside the Asian range, printing lower highs beneath the EMA20 (73,690) with RSI 45 and ATR near $196 per bar. Post-CPI tone keeps BTC heavy, with the London low at 73,445 and the Asian low at 73,113 sitting just above the psych 73K floor that analysts flag.
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,689.50, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
A close below the london low at 73,445 completes a full retrace of the London leg fib and exposes the asian low at 73,113
Loss of the psych 73K level reopens yesterday's post-CPI low at 72,630
A reclaim of the ema20 and the lower highs line near 73,800 would undo the false-break read and put the asian high at 73,932 back in play
No US data today; Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Friday's core PPI, are the next catalysts that could shift this read
09:31 UTC
Sideways after post-CPI selloff · RSI 50 · price 73,661.88
73100–74100 range; London false break above Asian high.
Since the hot US CPI flush to 72630 yesterday, BTC has held a 73100–74100 range. London's push through the asian high to the london high at 74081 failed. Price is back below the flat ema20 (73704) and ema50 (73684), with RSI 49.5 and ATR about $194. Retracement of the london leg has reached the swing low at 73534.
Support: 73,534.02, 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,704.08, 73,932.58, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 73933 reopens the london high at 74081
Break of the london low at 73445 exposes the asian low at 73113 and the $73K level flagged by analysts
Hold of the 73534 swing low keeps price inside the london leg retracement
No high-impact US data today; regulatory or Fed-crypto headlines are the intraday risk ahead of Thu Jobless Claims and Fedspeak
09:16 UTC
Intraday recovery stalling, rolling over below EMAs · RSI 46 · price 73,563.99
Higher lows since post-CPI low; London rejected above Asian range high.
The London open pushed above the Asian range high to 74081 (london high) and was rejected straight back inside the range. Price is now below the ema20 at 73707 and ema50 at 73684, and RSI(14) has cooled from 62.8 to 46.2. The rebound from yesterday's hot-CPI low at 72630 still holds a higher-low chain, with the 07:00 UTC swing low at 73445 and the asian low at 73113. ATR sits near $197 per bar.
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,706.84, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73445 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 73113 asian low
Loss of the 73113 asian low puts the $73K psych level, the analyst-flagged support, back in play
Reclaim of the ema20 at 73707 and a push back through the 74081 london high would negate the false break read
74718 cpi high is the post-release spike top and caps the broader range
No US data in the next 8h; Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalysts
Higher lows since Asian low; London false break above Asian high.
The hot US CPI print drove a spike to 74718.71 and then a flush to 72630.01. Since then BTC has rebuilt a run of higher lows, and the Asian range held 73113–73932. Early London broke above the Asian high to a session high at 74081.42, but the move was rejected. The last close at 73651.89 sits under the ema20 (73719) and ema50 (73688), with RSI(14) neutral at 48.2 and ATR(14) near $196.
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,719.03, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
A close back above the Asian high at 73932, then the 74081 session high, would negate the false break and extend the higher-lows sequence
Failure to hold the 73600 swing low, then the 73445 london low, would break the higher-lows trendline and expose the 73113 asian low
The ema20 at 73719 is capping the last close; reclaiming it would put price back above both EMAs
Thu 13:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate are the next scheduled risk; no high-impact US data today
Asian range 73113–73933; London false break above, back inside.
Early London pushed through the asian high to a 74081 london high, roughly the 61.8% of the hot-CPI drop. It was rejected back inside the Asian range within one bar, a false break. Price now sits at the 50% cpi fib, wedged between ema20 at 73726 and ema50 at 73690, with RSI(14) neutral at 50 and ATR(14) near $204 per bar. Higher lows from the post-CPI 72630 trough remain intact.
Support: 73,689.60, 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,726.10, 73,932.58, 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 73933 asian high reopens the 74081 london high and the $74K reclaim
Loss of the 73445 swing low exposes the 73113 asian low and the higher lows trendline
A break of the higher lows sequence puts the $73K floor flagged after CPI back in focus
No US data today; Thursday's claims and Fedspeak, then Friday's PPI, are the next catalysts for a range break
Higher lows from 72,630; London false break above the Asian high.
Hot US CPI knocked BTC to a 72,630 low yesterday. Since then a higher-low sequence has held, with the 73,113 Asian low and the 73,445 London low. London open pushed through the 73,932 Asian high to a 74,081 London high, then failed back below 74,000 within an hour. That leaves a false break, with price wedged between ema20 (73,727) and ema50 (73,689), RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) near $209.
Support: 73,688.57, 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,081.42
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 74,081 London high negates the false break and reclaims 74K
Acceptance back above the 73,932 Asian high would turn it into a retest rather than a rejection
Loss of ema50, then the 73,445 London low, breaks the higher-low line
Failure at the 73,113 Asian low unwinds the post-CPI recovery toward the 73,000 floor
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Fri PPI, are the next scheduled catalysts; nothing major is due this session
08:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 63 · price 73,986.52
London break above Asian range high, testing 74,000.
London lifted price through the Asian high at 73,933 and back over 74,000. That extends a higher-low chain off the 73,113 Asia low and the post-CPI recovery from 72,630, after the hot CPI print drove yesterday's flush. RSI(14) sits at 62.8 with price above the ema20 (73,730) and the ema50. The 74,081 session high is capping the move, and the London low at 73,445 is the base of the leg.
Support: 73,933.00, 73,729.86, 73,445.12
Resistance: 74,081.42, 74,372.10, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 73,933 asian high puts price back inside the Asia range and undercuts the break
Clearance of the 74,081 session high opens the pre-cpi high at 74,372, with the 74,719 cpi spike high beyond
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 73,445 london low ends the intraday recovery structure
ATR(14) near $197 per bar has compressed from ~$246 in Asia, so expected bar ranges are narrowing
Asian range broken higher, retest of range top in progress.
BTC extended its post-CPI recovery from the 72630 low, pushing through the Asian high at 73932 before London open and printing a session high at 74028. That retests the $74K level lost after yesterday's hot US CPI. The forming bar is retesting the Asian high, with price above the ema20 at 73698, the ema20 back above the ema50, and a higher-lows line from 73113 and 73445 intact. RSI(14) is 62 and ATR(14) is about $200.
Support: 73,697.90, 73,445.12
Resistance: 74,028.47
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 73932 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Sustained close above the 74028 session high reclaims $74K and opens the 74718 cpi bounce high
Loss of the higher-lows line and the 73445 swing low exposes the 73113 Asian low
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Thu claims/Fedspeak and Fri PPI are the next macro tests
The hot-CPI slide bottomed at 72,630. Asia has since held a 73,113–73,932 range, and higher lows at 73,387 and 73,445 have pushed price back toward the Asian high, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop near 73,920. Price is above a flat ema20/ema50 pair near 73,665, RSI(14) is neutral at 55 and ATR(14) has compressed to about $196 ahead of London open.
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,932 Asian high and the 74,000 round number breaks the range top and the 61.8% retracement cap
Failure to hold the 73,445 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 73,113 Asian low, then 73,000
London open is the first test of the compressed Asian range; ATR expansion from about $196 would mark the break
Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers are the next scheduled USD risk; none in the next 8h
Asian range 73,113–73,933 intact, higher lows into London open.
BTC is rotating inside the 73,113–73,933 Asian range after yesterday's hot US CPI print drove it to 72,630. London open bounced off the 73,445 london low and pushed back toward the asian high, which sits almost exactly at the 61.8% post-CPI fib. Price holds above a flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 73,654 on higher lows, with RSI(14) at a neutral 57 and ATR(14) at about 20,200 pips ($202), lifting off its compression.
Support: 73,653.64, 73,445.12, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,932.58, 74,000.00, 74,501.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,933 asian high / 61.8% post-CPI fib opens the 74,000 round number, then the 74,502 CPI high
Loss of the higher lows line and the 73,445 london low puts the 73,113 asian low and the $73K floor back in focus
A drop back below the ema20 (73,654) returns price to mid-range chop
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri PPI, are the next scheduled risks to this read
07:17 UTC
Range after the CPI selloff, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 73,562.99
Asian range 73,113–73,933 with lower highs into the London pre-open.
BTC is holding inside a 73,113–73,933 Asian range after the hot CPI flushed it to 72,630 and the CPI rebound stalled near 73,950. Rejection at the 73,882 lower high has price back below the ema20 at 73,635 and the ema50 at 73,648, testing the 73,445 swing low ahead of the London open. RSI(14) is 44.7 and ATR(14) has compressed to 18,471 pips (~$185).
Support: 73,445.12, 73,113.48, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,634.90, 73,932.58
What it said to watch
A close below the 73,445 swing low exposes the asian low at 73,113 (61.8% of the cpi rebound fib) and the 73,000 psych floor
A reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 73,882 lower high break the lower highs sequence and reopen the asian high at 73,933 and 74,000
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fedspeak could reset this range
07:03 UTC
Sideways after post-CPI drop, slipping below flat EMAs · RSI 45 · price 73,503.05
Asian range 73113–73933, lower high at 73882.
The hot US CPI print drove BTC to 72630 during NY hours. Since then it has held inside a 73113–73933 Asian range. Late in Asia, ahead of London open, the rejection at the 73882 lower high has pushed price back under the flat ema20/ema50 at 73647–73654, into the 50% fib of the Asian swing. RSI is neutral at 45.3 and ATR (~$189) is compressing.
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,653.73, 73,932.58
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73387 swing low exposes the 73113 asian low, then the 73000 psych level flagged as near-term floor
M15 close back above the ema50 at 73654 and the 73882 lower high puts the 73933 asian high back in play
Range break at London open from the compressed ATR would end the sideways read
Thursday's jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled USD risk for this read
Asian range 73113–73933 with lower highs capping below 73900.
The hot US CPI selloff bottomed at 72630, and the post-CPI rebound has stalled inside a 73113–73933 Asian range. A lower high at 73882 met rejection, price is back under the ema20 near 73660 with RSI(14) at 47, and ATR(14) has compressed from ~25500 to ~19200 pips into the London open. The swing low at 73387 and the 61.8% retrace near the Asian low at 73113 frame the downside, with the analyst-flagged 73k floor just below.
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,659.56, 73,932.58
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73933 Asian high breaks the range top and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 73387 swing low exposes the Asian low / 61.8% retrace at 73113 and the 73k floor
Compressed ATR into London open: a range break from here may carry outsized follow-through
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fedspeak (Williams 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Sideways after post-CPI drop, higher lows building · RSI 53 · price 73,759.77
Asian range 73113–73933, higher lows under a flat range top.
The hot US CPI print knocked BTC to a 72630 low during NY hours. Asia has since built a 73113–73933 range, with higher lows at the 73113 asian low and the 73387 swing low, and price is holding just above a flat ema20/ema50 pair near 73665. Supply is capping the range top at 73950 below the 74000 psych level, and ATR(14) has compressed to about $189 as London open approaches. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 73,668.36, 73,387.18, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,882.63, 73,949.56, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 73883 swing high and the 73950 range top would put the 74000 psych level in play, which the digest flags as the reclaim level after CPI
A break below the 73387 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 73113 asian low, with $73K the digest's near-term floor
Losing the ema20 near 73668 on a closing basis would return price to the middle of the Asian range
London open could expand the compressed ATR and test either edge of the range
06:16 UTC
Range after post-CPI flush, higher lows building · RSI 55 · price 73,722.81
Asian range 73,113–73,933, higher lows inside it.
Late in the Asia session, BTC is holding the upper half of the 73,113–73,933 Asian range. Price has printed higher lows at the 73,113 Asian low and the 73,387 swing low since the hot-CPI flush to 72,630. It sits just above the ema20, which has crossed ema50 near 73,660. The Asian high also lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop near 73,920, capping price, while ATR(14) compresses to ~19,500 pips ($195).
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,932.58, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,933 asian high opens a reclaim of the 74,000 round number
Break of the 73,387 swing low ends the higher-low trendline and exposes the asian low at 73,113, then $73K
Close back below the ema20 near 73,660 returns price to mid-range chop
Higher-low chain inside Asian range 73,113–73,933.
The hot US CPI flush to 72,630 retraced to 73,950 in NY hours. The Asia session has ranged 73,113–73,933, and a higher-low chain off the 02:30 UTC asian low has carried price back toward the asian high. Price holds above a rising ema20 that is converging on the ema50 near 73,650, with RSI(14) at 58.5 and ATR(14) around $202.
Support: 73,579.97, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,932.58, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,933 asian high and the 74,000 round number breaks the Asian range into London open
Loss of the 73,580 higher low and the higher-low line breaks the micro HH/HL chain; the 73,113 asian low is the range floor
A close back below the ema20/ema50 zone near 73,650 would neutralise the intraday recovery read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate, then Fri PPI, could shift the post-CPI structure
05:46 UTC
Range after post-CPI flush, higher lows forming · RSI 56 · price 73,749.78
73,113–73,950 range since the CPI low; higher lows through late Asia.
The hot US CPI print flushed BTC from 74,720 to 72,630, and price has since held a 73,113–73,950 range, with the range top sitting near the 61.8% fib of that drop. Late in the Asia session, price is printing higher lows off the 73,113 Asian low and holding just above flat EMA20 and EMA50 (ema50 at 73,648), capped so far by the 73,820 session high. RSI(14) is neutral at 56.1 and ATR(14) is easing to about 20,500 pips ($205).
Support: 73,648.00, 73,387.00, 73,113.00
Resistance: 73,820.00, 73,950.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,950 range top / 61.8% fib would break the post-CPI range and bring 74,000 psych into play
Loss of the higher-low trendline and 73,387 higher low would put the 73,113 asian low back in focus
Rejection at the 73,820 session high into London open would keep the range read intact
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Asian range 73,113–73,933 with higher lows coiling under 73,820.
After the hot US CPI flush to 72,630, the Asia session has held a 73,113–73,933 range. Higher lows at 73,113 and 73,387 have price coiling near the 50% retrace of the post-CPI drop, just above a flat ema20 and the ema50 at 73,643. RSI(14) at 53 and ATR(14) easing from 25,566 to 21,054 pips point to compression rather than direction.
Support: 73,642.92, 73,387.18, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,819.70, 73,932.58, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,820 recent high and the 73,933 Asian high opens a test of 74,000, the post-CPI breakdown (cpi break) level
Loss of the 73,387 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the coil; below the 73,113 Asian low, the $73K support cited by analysts comes into play
M15 close back below the ema50 at 73,643 returns price to mid-range chop inside the Asian range
London open approaching could expand the compressed Asian range
Asian range 73,113–73,950 with higher lows inside.
Mid-to-late Asia session is holding a 73,113–73,950 range after hot US CPI flushed BTC to 72,630. The post-CPI bounce stalled at the range top, and the Asian low sits near the 61.8% fib of that bounce. Higher lows at 73,113 and 73,387 keep price just above a flat ema20/ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) around $214.
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,949.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,950 range top, then the 74k pivot (the post-CPI breakdown level), would end the range read
Loss of the 73,387 higher low puts the asian low at 73,113 back in play
Break of 73k support reopens the 72,630 post-CPI low
London open in ~2h may set the first expansion out of the Asian range
Higher low inside Asian range, lower session highs.
Late in the Asia session, BTC is coiling inside the 73,113–73,932 Asian range after the hot CPI flush to 72,630 and the rebound that followed. A higher low at 73,387 against lower session highs near 73,810 has price pinned around the flat EMA20/EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to about $219 from $256 and RSI(14) sits neutral at 51.7. The asian low sits near the 0.618 of the post-CPI rebound.
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48
What it said to watch
Break of the higher-low trendline and the swing low at 73,387 reopens the asian low at 73,113
Loss of 73,113 exposes psych 73k, the analyst-flagged support
Clearance of the session high at 73,810 and the asian high at 73,932 puts psych 74k, the post-CPI breakdown level, back in play
London open may resolve the Asian range compression
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Post-CPI selloff, now coiling · RSI 54 · price 73,682.85
Pennant inside Asia session range, higher low vs lower high.
The hot CPI flush to the 72,630 cpi low bounced to the 61.8% post-CPI fib near 73,930, where the asian high capped. Late in the Asia session price is coiling in a pennant, with a swing low at 73,387 (above the 73,113 asian low) and a lower high at 73,807, sitting just above a flat ema50 (73,640) and ema20 (73,602). RSI(14) is neutral at 53.8 and ATR(14) is 22,257 pips (about $223).
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 74,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 73,932 asian high breaks the pennant and the 61.8% post-CPI fib, putting the 74,000 round number (the post-CPI breakdown level) in play
Failure to hold the 73,387 swing low and then the 73,113 asian low reopens the 72,630 cpi low, with $73K support in between
A close back above the 73,807 lower high shifts the pennant toward an upside test
Jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC, then PPI Fri, could materially shift this read
The London open in about 3h is the first test of the Asian range
04:31 UTC
Post-CPI bounce stalling, flat in Asia · RSI 50 · price 73,636.91
Asian range 73113–73933 with lower highs, price mid-range.
Hot US CPI drove a flush to 72630 in NY hours. The rebound stalled at the 73950 range top, and Asia has printed lower highs at 73933 and 73808 above a 73113 asian low that held near the 61.8% retrace. Price is pinned around the ema20/ema50 with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR(14) about $226, so no directional setup is in play.
Support: 73,387.18, 73,113.48, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,638.02, 73,807.72, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
Hold of the 73387 swing low keeps price mid-range; a close above the 73808 swing high and the 73950 range top breaks the lower-high trendline
Close back above ema50 at 73638 needed to lift price off the EMAs
M15 close below the 73113 asian low exposes the 73000 psych level flagged as post-CPI support
04:16 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now ranging · RSI 52 · price 73,536.02
Asia range 73,113–73,932 with lower highs under the 61.8% retracement.
The hot October CPI print broke BTC down from its 74,000–74,400 pre-release range. The NY afternoon flush set a post-CPI low at 72,630, and the recovery stalled at the 73,950 range high, roughly the 61.8% fib of the drop. Asia session is chopping between the 73,113 Asian low and 73,932, with highs stepping lower. RSI is neutral at 51.7, and the last close sat above EMA20 (73,592) but just under the EMA50 at 73,640.
Support: 73,113.48, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,640.06, 73,949.56, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 73,113 Asian low puts the 73,000 psych level in play, and losing that exposes the post-CPI low at 72,630
Hold above the EMA50 and a close through the 73,950 range high and 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs line
Reclaim of 74,000, the CPI breakdown level, would mark the post-CPI breakdown as failing
ATR near 224 USD: a 200–250 USD swing per bar is normal inside this range
Thursday jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Friday PPI, could materially shift this read
Asian range 73,110–73,950, range high capped twice.
The hot US CPI flush to 72,630 has been partly retraced into a 73,110–73,950 Asian range. The range high has been rejected twice near the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib. Price sits just above ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at a neutral 53.3; ATR(14) is 22754.8 pips (~$228 per bar).
Support: 73,640.11, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,950.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 73,950 range high reclaims the $74K post-CPI breakdown area and opens the 74,720 cpi bounce high
A break of the 73,110 asian low exposes the 73,000 psych level flagged as support after CPI
Losing ema50 at 73,640 puts price back in the lower half of the range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the heavy Fedspeak that follows could materially shift this read
Higher low off the post-CPI low; Asia range 73,113–73,932 capped under 73,950.
Hot October CPI flushed BTC from the 74,000s to a 72,630 post-cpi low during NY hours. The rebound has twice stalled at the 73,950 range top, at the 61.8% fib of the drop. Late in the Asia session price sits mid-range near the 50% fib, just above ema20 and ema50 on a higher-low line, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.8 and ATR(14) about $237.
Support: 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,950 range top and a reclaim of the 74,000 breakdown level would end the range read
Break of the higher-low line and the 73,113 asian low reopens the 72,630 post-cpi low
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could reset intraday structure
03:31 UTC
Range after post-CPI rebound · RSI 53 · price 73,650.89
Asia range 73,113–73,932 capped below 73,950 range top.
Hot US CPI knocked BTC to the 72,630 cpi low in the NY session. The rebound has stalled twice under the 73,950 range top, and Asia is ranging 73,113–73,932. The Asian low held near the 61.8% level of the post-CPI recovery fib, and price is back above the ema20 and a flattening ema50 with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 73,567.77, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,950 range top opens the 74,000 round number, the reclaim level flagged after CPI
Slip back under the ema20 at 73,568 returns price to the lower half of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 73,113 asian low exposes the 72,630 cpi low and the $73K floor
ATR(14) near $246 per bar; jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session range 73,113–73,933 above a rising higher-low line from the 72,630 NY low.
The hot US CPI drove BTC to a 72,630 low during NY hours. Since then price has built higher lows, and the Asian low at 73,113 was rejected near the 61.8% of the recovery fib. Price now sits in the upper half of the Asian range, above ema20 and the flattening ema50. RSI(14) reads a neutral 54.7 and ATR is about $256 per bar.
Support: 73,635.26, 73,555.44, 73,113.48
Resistance: 73,932.58, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,933 asian high and the 74,000 psych level would break the Asian range to the upside
Slip back below ema50 at 73,635 and ema20 at 73,555 returns price to the range middle
Loss of the 73,113 asian low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 73,000 floor flagged in the digest
Jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC onward could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Sideways chop after post-CPI selloff · RSI 50 · price 73,584.96
Asia range 73,113–73,933 under a flat lower-high cap near 73,950.
The hot US CPI print drove BTC to a 72,630 post-CPI low, and the bounce has stalled under a flat 73,933–73,950 cap. The Asia session has chopped inside that range. The latest dip to the 73,113 asia low found demand near the 61.8% retrace of the post-CPI bounce and on rising support, and snapped back. Price is wedged between the ema20 (73,537) and the ema50 (73,631), with RSI(14) neutral at 49.9 and ATR(14) at 25,250 pips (~$252).
Support: 73,536.98, 73,113.48, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,631.36, 73,932.58, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 73,113 asia low breaks rising support and exposes the 73,000 round number flagged as the post-CPI floor
A close above the 73,933 asia high, with the 74,000 round number just beyond, ends the lower-high cap
Acceptance above the ema50 at 73,631 shifts the read toward the range top
US Jobless Claims and the Fed speaker slate Thu 13:30 UTC, then PPI Fri, could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalled, ranging in Asia · RSI 53 · price 73,660.88
Asian range 73,113–73,933 with lower highs under 73,950 and rising lows off 72,630.
Asia session is chopping inside a 73,113–73,933 range, capped below the late-NY 73,950 high, after the hot US CPI print drove the slide to the 72,630 CPI low. The 02:30 UTC bar rejected the Asian low near the 61.8% level of the post-CPI bounce fib and closed back above both EMAs, just over ema50. RSI(14) is neutral at 52.5 and ATR(14) has expanded to 25,433 pips (~$254).
Support: 73,635.00, 73,113.48, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,932.58, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 73,933 Asian high and the 74,000 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 73,113 Asian low breaks the rising lows off the 72,630 CPI low
Slipping back below ema50 at 73,635 returns price to mid-range chop
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Double top at 73,940 area, Asia session pressing the 73,260 neckline.
Hot US CPI drove a flush to the 72,630 cpi low during NY hours. The rebound stalled twice near 73,940, forming a double top. The Asia session has since probed below the 73,260 neckline to 73,113, close to the 61.8% fib, with price under both the ema20 and ema50, RSI(14) at 41.5 and ATR(14) at about 23,317 pips (~$233).
Support: 73,113.48, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,634.80
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 73,113 exposes the 73,000 round number, then the 72,630 cpi low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 73,525 and the ema50 at 73,635 would undercut the double top read
Rejection at the double top near 73,940 on any retest keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Post-CPI relief bounce stalling, lower high in Asia · RSI 44 · price 73,352.22
Lower high at 73,932 under the 73,950 swing high, price below both EMAs.
The bounce off the post-CPI low at 72,630 stalled at the 73,950 swing high in late NY hours. Early in the Asia session price was rejected at 73,932, leaving a lower high, and is now trading under the ema20 and ema50 near the 50% fib of the bounce. The Asian low at 73,263 is the nearest floor, with the hot CPI tone still weighing.
Support: 73,263.32, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,649.64, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
Break of the 73,263 Asian low exposes the 73,000 round number and the 61.8% fib near 73,135
M15 close back above the ema20 and ema50 (73,550–73,650) undoes the lower-high read
Close above the 73,950 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence toward 74,000
Loss of 73,000 brings the 72,630 post-CPI low back into play; ATR near $232 per bar
73,260–73,950 range above the CPI low; higher lows, range top rejected twice.
The hot US CPI print drove BTC to a 72,630 CPI low during NY hours. The post-CPI bounce has since held a 73,260–73,950 range on higher lows, and the 01:30 UTC spike was rejected at the range top. Early in the Asia session price sits back under ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 47.8 and ATR(14) near $228 per bar, still elevated after the CPI expansion.
Support: 73,263.32, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,949.56
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 73,263 range low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes 73,000 psych, the post-CPI floor
Loss of 73,000 psych puts the 72,630 CPI low back in play
A close above the 73,950 range top, after two rejections there, ends the range read
Holding back above ema20 and ema50 would put price in the upper half of the range
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 72,630; twin highs near 73,950 cap the range.
Hot US CPI broke the London range floor near 74,010 and drove a low at 72,630. The rebound has stalled twice near 73,950, the double cap that sits at the 61.8% post-CPI fib. Early in the Asia session, price holds above the ema50 at 73,668 after the 73,263 swing low held, with RSI(14) recovering from 39.6 to 56.4.
Support: 73,668.00, 73,263.00, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,950.00, 74,010.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 73,950 double cap and the 74,010 range floor would put price back inside the pre-CPI range.
A break of the 73,263 swing low ends the rising lows chain and brings the 73,000 psych floor back into play.
Losing the ema50 at 73,668 returns price to the middle of the range.
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers could shift this read; Fri PPI is the larger risk.
01:32 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalling into a range · RSI 54 · price 73,682.85
73,260–73,950 range in early Asia session; descending trendline reclaimed.
The hot US CPI flush to 72,630 gave way to a 73,260–73,950 range through NY and into the early Asia session. The 01:15 UTC bar swept below the 73,410 lows to a 73,260 swing low, near the 50% fib of the recovery, then snapped back above both EMAs and the descending trendline from the NY high. RSI(14) rebounded from 39.6 to 53.6, and ATR(14) is about 21,789 pips (~$218).
Support: 73,560.28, 73,260.32, 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,949.56, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
A close back below the ema20 at 73,560 would undo the trendline reclaim and keep the range intact.
Failure to hold the 73,260 swing low exposes the 73,000 round number and the CPI low at 72,630.
A close above the 73,950 NY high and the 74,000 round number ends the range and brings the 74,718 CPI high into view.
Thursday's jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, Williams at 23:30 UTC, and Friday's PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 73,950 rebound high; 73,410 shelf broken in early Asia.
The rebound from the 72,630 cpi low, which followed the hot October CPI print, topped at the 73,950 rebound high late in NY. Since then price has printed lower highs and slipped through the 73,410 broken shelf in early Asia, with RSI(14) at 39.6 and price below both EMAs. It is now testing the 50% retrace of that rebound near 73,290, just above the session low and the 73,000 psych level.
Support: 73,260.32, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,410.15, 73,548.32, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
A close back above ema20 at 73,548 would undo the lower-high sequence; staying below the 73,410 broken shelf keeps it intact
A break of the 73,260 session low and 73,000 psych exposes the 72,630 cpi low, near the 61.8% retrace at 73,134 on the way
Reclaim of the 73,950 rebound high and $74,000 would show the CPI shock being absorbed
ATR(14) at ~$200 per bar is compressing from ~$298 over the last 20 bars, so moves are shrinking into Asia
Thu jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through Williams at 23:30 UTC, then Fri PPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 73,950, testing 50% retrace of rebound.
The hot CPI print drove BTC to the 72,630 cpi low. The rebound was capped at the 73,950 swing high, just short of 74,000. Lower highs into the early Asia session have pushed price below both the ema20 and ema50, and it is now testing the 50% retrace of that rebound, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR(14) compressed to ~19,979 pips.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,573.80, 73,949.56, 74,000.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 73,200 swing low and the 73,000 round number confirms a lower low, exposing the 72,630 cpi low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 73,574 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the fade; 74,000 psych is the reclaim level above the 73,950 swing high
Thu jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp could materially shift this read ahead of Fri PPI
00:46 UTC
Pullback inside post-CPI rebound, below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 73,483.07
Lower highs from 73950 pressing the 73410 session low.
The hot CPI print flushed BTC to a 72630 cpi low in the NY session. The rebound stalled with a rejection at the 73950 rebound hi late in NY. Since then a chain of lower highs has pushed price back under the ema20 and ema50, and early Asia is testing the 73410 session low near the 38.2% of the rebound fib. ATR(14) has compressed from ~$305 to ~$206 (20,616 pips) and RSI(14) is neutral at 46.1.
Support: 73,409.16, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,687.70, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73409 session low exposes the 73,000 psych level the market is treating as the line
Loss of 73,000 would put the 72630 cpi low back in play
M15 close back above the ema50 at 73688 and the lower-highs line negates the fade from the 73950 rebound hi
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fed speaker cluster are the next scheduled catalysts; ATR compression suggests a range expansion when they hit
Lower highs off 73,950; holding above 73,409 in early Asia.
The hot US CPI whipsawed BTC through 74,718 and then down to the 72,630 cpi low in NY. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 73,950 swing high, and price is now fading in early Asia below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 48. ATR(14) has compressed to about $207 from $312, and the 73,409 swing low is the nearest floor. Price is back near the 38.2% retracement of the rebound fib.
Support: 73,409.16, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,597.41, 73,695.56, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
A close below the 73,409 swing low exposes the 73,000 psych level, the line flagged after CPI
A break of 73,000 reopens the 72,630 cpi low
A reclaim of the ema20 and ema50 at 73,597–73,696, together with a break of the lower highs line, puts the 73,950 swing high back in play
No US data is due in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims and Fed speakers are the next scheduled catalyst
00:16 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalling, flat into Asia · RSI 49 · price 73,585.96
Higher lows from 72,630 low, capped at 73,950.
Hot US CPI drove BTC to a 72,630 cpi low. The rebound stalled at the 73,950 swing high late in NY hours, and the pullback held the 73,455 swing low near the 38.2% fib. Early Asia session trades just under ema20 (73,602) and ema50 (73,701), with RSI 48.7 neutral and ATR compressing to 20,894 pips (~$209).
Support: 73,455.11, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,602.09, 73,701.38, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 73,455 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes 73,000 psych, then the 72,630 cpi low
Close back above ema20 and ema50 (73,602–73,701) reopens a test of the 73,950 swing high
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri PPI, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 72630, pullback from 73950 held 38.2%.
The hot US CPI print flushed BTC from the 74718 cpi high to the 72630 cpi low. A grinding recovery of higher lows followed into a 73950 swing high late in NY hours, and the pullback found demand at the 73455 swing low, near the 38.2% retrace. Price opens the Asia session pinned between the rising ema20 (73606) and the flat ema50 (73707), with RSI 53 neutral and ATR compressing to about $213.
Support: 73,605.89, 73,455.11, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,706.91, 73,949.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 73707 and the 73950 swing high extends the recovery structure toward the 74718 cpi high
Loss of the 73455 swing low and the recovery trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing $73K and the 72630 cpi low
No US data in the next 8h. Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp could materially shift this read