Lower highs and lower lows from 81,104, price riding descending support.
BTC has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 81,104 early-month high. The hot October CPI print, which cemented December Fed hike pricing, drove a fresh swing low at 72,630, with price sitting below a falling ema20 and ema50 and ATR(14) expanding from about 640 to 962 dollars. RSI made a higher trough at 29.6 against 26.3 at the 73,443 prior low, a mild bullish divergence as price tests descending support.
Support: 73,443.12, 72,630.01, 70,000.00
Resistance: 74,786.94, 75,596.75, 76,030.72
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 73,443 prior low keeps pressure on the 72,630 swing low and descending support
Break of the 72,630 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 70,000 psych area
Reclaim of ema20 at 74,787 and then the 75,597 lower high would challenge the downtrend read; the 38.2% retracement near 75,870 sits just below ema50 at 76,031
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Thursday's Jobless Claims and Fed speakers follow
Lower highs and lower lows since the 81,104 swing high.
BTC has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 81,104 swing high on Nov 4. The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) added to the hawkish-Fed headwind and extended the decline through the 73,443 prior low to a fresh swing low at 72,630, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 74,897 and EMA(50) at 76,124 and ATR(14) expanding to about $963. RSI(14) at 29.6 is oversold, and the reading sits above the one at the 73,443 low, a modest bullish divergence against the lower price low.
Support: 72,630.01, 70,000.00
Resistance: 73,443.12, 74,896.64, 75,596.75
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 73,443 prior low would mark the post-CPI break as a false break
Failure to hold the 72,630 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 70,000 psych level
Recovery through the ema20 at 74,897 and the 75,597 lower high needed to break the lower-high structure; the 38.2% decline fib sits near 75,870
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 and 23:30 UTC could shift the post-CPI read; Thu Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) is the next data risk
Lower highs from 81.1K; price back at the 73.4K swing low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the early-November 81.1K peak. The hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) coincided with a push back into the 73.4K swing low, which sits at the base of the 81.1K-73.4K leg. Price holds below a falling ema20 (75,076) and ema50 (76,244), and RSI at 32.3 is weak but not yet oversold, while ATR(14) has expanded to about 87.7K pips from the 64K compression ahead of the Nov 8 breakdown.
Support: 73,431.13, 73,000.00
Resistance: 75,075.72, 75,596.75, 76,243.56
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 73,431 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 73,000 round number
A recovery through the ema20 and the 75,597 lower high would break the lower-high sequence; the ema50 near 76,244 sits above that
RSI slipping under 30 would put the pair in oversold territory after the CPI-driven leg
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak later today; hawkish follow-through on the hot CPI could extend the downtrend
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 38 · price 74,447.01
Lower highs from 84,885; tight box between 73,506 and 75,700.
The window shows a run of lower highs from the 84,885 peak through 81,958 to the early-month 81,176 lower high. The post-Binance-hack breakdown, followed by Friday's hawkish payrolls beat, carried price to Monday's 73,506 swing low. Since then BTC has held a roughly 2,200-point box, with the floor near the 74,000 round number and the 75,700 range top. The falling EMA(20) at 75,659 sits just under that range top and both are capping, with EMA(20) below EMA(50). ATR(14) has eased to about 1,068 from roughly 1,212 at its recent peak, and RSI at 37.5 sits below 50 but above oversold, so the bar range is compressing ahead of today's CPI.
Support: 74,000.00, 73,505.51
Resistance: 75,700.00, 77,183.63, 81,176.44
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read: a hot core print could push price through the 74,000 round number toward the swing low
An H4 close below the 73,506 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
An H4 close above the 75,700 range top and EMA(20) ends the consolidation and opens the 38.2% fib near 76,436
Recovering the EMA(50) at 77,184 would put the 61.8% fib near 78,246 in play
Only a close above the 81,176 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
06:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight consolidation · RSI 39 · price 74,774.69
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84,885 peak; base forming above 73,505.
Lower highs since the 84,885 peak; the 81,176 rebound high capped, and the hawkish data run (NFP 165K vs 65K) pushed the sequence to a 73,505 swing low on Nov 8. Since then price has held a tight consolidation below the 75,700 range top, with a falling ema20 (75,781) still above it and the ema50 (77,293) further out. ATR(14) has eased from about 1,230 to 1,090 USD as ranges contract, and RSI drifting near 40 shows the slide pausing without a momentum turn.
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 75,700 range top and ema20 (75,781) would break the consolidation to the upside and expose the 50% fib near the ema50 at 77,293
Failure to hold the 73,505 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could break the compression; a hot core print adds to the hawkish NFP backdrop
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC ahead of CPI could shift the read early
Price stays below the lower highs trendline from 84,885 while it holds under the 81,176 high
Lower highs/lower lows since 81.9k; short-term higher lows off 73.4k.
BTC has printed successive lower highs, from 81.9k to 81.1k and then 75.6k. The Nov 5 drop from 80.4k broke the multi-week floor, and the hot NFP print added pressure into the 74.8k prior low. Late Sunday, a break of the 75.5-76.4k weekend range set a fresh 73.4k swing low. Since then a higher low at 73.6k and a rising-lows line have lifted price back toward 75k. Supply keeps capping the 75.5-75.6k lower high, just above the 23.6% fib of the Nov 4 high-Nov 8 low leg. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR has re-expanded after the weekend compression.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (Waller 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; core ≥0.3% vs 0.2% f/c compounds the hot NFP signal
H4 close above the 75.6k lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 76.4k range top in play
Reclaim of the 76.4k range top exposes the fib 50% retracement near 77.27k
Break of the rising-lows line and the 74.8k prior low returns focus to the 73.6k higher low
Failure to hold the 73.4k swing low extends the lower-low sequence