Lower highs since Sunday; range break lower on CPI, pullback capped near ema20.
BTC dropped out of the 74,000–75,300 range at the NY open on the hot October CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) and set a week low at 72,630 before a late-NY bounce stalled at 73,950. That high sits just under the 50% fib of the 75,330–72,630 leg and the EMA(20) at 73,903. Price is below both EMAs, EMA(20) is falling under EMA(50), and the lower-highs line from Sunday is intact. RSI(14) has recovered to 43.6 from 31.4 without reaching oversold, and ATR is easing back from its post-CPI expansion.
Support: 73,431.13, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,902.85, 74,000.00, 74,437.94
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC, and their December hike-size language could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the ema20 and the 74,000 breakdown level would mark a reclaim of the pre-CPI range floor
A loss of the 73,431 prior low exposes the 73,000 psych level and the 72,630 week low, which would extend the lower-low sequence
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the ema50 at 74,438 would neutralise the downtrend read
Lower highs since Monday's 75,474 high; Monday range broke lower on CPI, bounce from week low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the monday high at 75,474. The hot October CPI print broke the Monday range floor near 73,640 during NY hours and set a week low at 72,630. The rebound has reached the 38.2% retracement and is stalling just under EMA(20) at 73,935, with RSI(14) lifting from 31 to 45 and ATR still elevated near $563, while EMA(50) at 74,472 lines up with the lower-high line and a higher low at 73,202 holds the bounce above the 73,000 round number.
Support: 73,202.38, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,935.15, 74,472.31, 75,473.88
What it said to watch
H1 close above ema20 at 73,935 and the 74,000 handle would open a test of ema50 near 74,472
A close above the lower-high line near 74,470 would break the sequence of lower highs since Monday
Failure to hold the 73,202 higher low reopens the 73,000 round number and the 72,630 week low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~86 min) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; CPI low reclaim below EMAs.
BTCUSD has carved lower highs since Monday's 75,474 peak. The hot October CPI at 13:30 UTC pushed price through the Sunday low at 73,443 to a 72,630 CPI low during NY hours. The rebound since has climbed back above the Sunday low and the 38.2% fib near 73,716, but price still sits below EMA(20) at 73,955 and EMA(50) at 74,502, with RSI(14) recovering from 31.4 to 44.3 and ATR easing off its post-CPI peak.
Support: 73,443.12, 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,955.19, 74,051.95, 74,502.01
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 73,955 and the 50% fib at 74,052 would mark the first higher high since the CPI low
Lower-high trendline from Tuesday's 75,330 high runs near 74,470, just under the ema50 at 74,502, an area to watch for rejection or break
Slipping back below the Sunday low at 73,443 would turn the reclaim into a failed one and put the 73,000 round number and the 72,630 cpi low back in view
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read if they lean toward a 50bp December hike
Lower highs since Monday, CPI leg broke below Sunday low.
BTC has printed lower highs from 75,330 since Monday, and the hot US CPI beat in the NY session extended the CPI leg through the 73,443 Sunday low to a week low at 72,630. The rebound stalled at the 73,576 bounce high and is now holding near the 23.6% retracement around 73,300, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 73,985 and EMA(50) at 74,536. RSI(14) has lifted from 31.4 to 39.9, while ATR(14) has expanded to about $587 from roughly $443 before the data.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,443.12, 73,575.97, 73,985.12
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 73,443 Sunday low and 73,576 bounce high would point to a deeper retracement of the CPI leg toward ema20
Failure at the 73,000 round number exposes the 72,630 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the lower-highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read after the CPI beat
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) is the next scheduled macro risk
BTC held a tight 75,500–76,140 band through Friday and Saturday, then Sunday evening's flush to 73,443 opened a 73,440–75,600 range capped by successively lower highs at 75,597, 75,474 and 75,330. Today's hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke that range low. After a whipsaw to the 74,719 cpi high, the NY session drove price to a 72,630 week low, with ATR expanding to roughly $611. The rebound has stalled just under the 73,443 prior low and the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI leg near 73,430, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 74,050 and RSI(14) recovering to 40 from 31.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,443.12, 74,050.16, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and again at 23:30 UTC alongside Paulson; a hawkish lean on the CPI print could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the 73,443 prior low and the 50% fib near 73,674 would reclaim the old range floor
Failure at the 73,000 round number, then a break of the 72,630 week low, extends the lower-low sequence
An H1 close above the lower-highs line (~74,550 now) and EMA(50) at 74,584 would break the sequence; ema20 at 74,050 is the first test
Lower highs since Sunday; 73,440 range floor broken.
BTC had chopped between a 73,440 range floor and 75,600 since Sunday's late flush. Each rally since then capped lower, the last at 75,330 early Monday. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the floor into the NY session, and a spike to the 74,720 post-CPI high was sold to a 72,630 CPI low, with price now holding just above the 73,000 psych mark. Price sits below a falling ema20 (74,120) and ema50 (74,632), with RSI at 37.5 after a 31.4 trough. ATR has expanded to about $614 (61,377 pips) from $433 earlier in the day.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,630.01
Resistance: 73,440.00, 74,119.95
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 73,440 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 72,630 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of ema20 at 74,120, near the 61.8% of the Nov 10 drop, would break the lower-highs line
A move through the 74,720 post-CPI high would invalidate the lower-highs read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 and 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the hot CPI
Lower highs and lower lows since Sunday's range break.
BTC broke down from the 75,470–76,140 weekend range late Sunday. Since then it has printed lower highs at 75,474, 75,330 and 74,719, which together form a lower-high trendline, and price sits below a declining EMA(20) at 74,217 and EMA(50) at 74,691. Tuesday's hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c) pushed price through the 73,431 prior low, and the NY-session leg extended to a 72,630 week low. That completes a full retracement of the move off Monday's 75,474 high. RSI(14) at 31.4 sits just above oversold, while ATR(14) has expanded to roughly $622 from about $433 earlier in the session.
Support: 72,630.01, 72,000.00
Resistance: 73,431.13, 74,217.27, 74,718.71
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 73,431 prior low would mark the CPI breakdown as rejected
Failure to hold the 72,630 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 72,000 round number
A reclaim of the ema20 at 74,217 and a break of the 74,719 lower high trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
RSI(14) slipping below 30 would register oversold; a higher RSI low on a new price low would flag divergence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and 23:30 UTC could extend or unwind the post-CPI move
Lower highs since Monday high, fresh lower low post-CPI.
Since the Monday high at 75,474, BTC has printed a sequence of lower highs through Tuesday's Asia and London sessions. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%, both above forecast) broke the 73,430–73,445 lows from Sunday evening and the CPI bar, turning that zone into a broken low. The 15:00 UTC NY bar spiked above the ema20 to 74,719 and met rejection, then dropped to a 72,758 day low, now just under the 73,000 psych level, with RSI(14) at 33.7, short of oversold, and ATR(14) expanding to about $606 from roughly $433 earlier in the session.
Support: 73,000.00, 72,757.87
Resistance: 73,440.00, 74,368.05, 74,734.70
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 73,440 broken low would turn the CPI break into a false break
Failure to hold the 72,758 day low and the 73,000 psych level extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the ema20 at 74,368 and the lower-highs line would challenge the downtrend read; the weekly open at 74,735 sits above
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC give the first official read on the CPI beat and could materially shift this read
RSI(14) holding above 30 on a new low would set up a bullish divergence
Lower highs have stacked up since Sunday evening's flush. Monday's London rally capped at 75,474, and later bounces failed while EMA(20) at 74,501 slopes lower beneath a falling EMA(50) at 74,837. The hot US CPI print at the NY open (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%, both above forecast) drove price to 73,431, and the current bar has spiked above EMA(20) and been rejected to a new session low at 73,077, below the Sunday low near 73,443. RSI(14) sits at 45.7 after touching 33.8 on the CPI bar, while ATR(14) has re-expanded to 50,143 pips (~$501).
Support: 73,000.00
Resistance: 73,443.12, 74,501.48, 74,837.04
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the Sunday low at 73,443 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 73,000 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond today's session low
A rebound stalling near the 38.2% fib of the Monday-high leg (~73,990) keeps the lower highs trendline intact
Reclaiming ema20 (74,501) and ema50 (74,837) is needed to challenge the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read after the hot CPI
Lower highs and lows; CPI bar retesting Sunday flush low.
Hot October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2% f/c, headline 0.4% vs 0.3%) knocked BTC to the cpi low at 73,431 at 13:30 UTC. That retested Sunday's late flush low near 73,443, and the bar closed below a falling EMA(20) at 74,523 and EMA(50) at 74,859. Since Monday's NY-session high at 75,474 the hourly has printed lower highs and lower lows, and RSI(14) has slid from the mid-50s to 33.8 without reaching oversold. ATR has re-expanded to about $479. Price sits just above the monday low at 73,636, with the pre-cpi low near 74,010 as the first overhead reference.
Support: 73,635.91, 73,431.13
Resistance: 74,522.99, 74,859.07
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the cpi low at 73,431 extends the lower-low sequence beyond Sunday's flush
Failure to hold the monday low at 73,636 keeps the CPI break in control of structure
Recovery above the pre-cpi low at 74,010 and the ema20 at 74,523 would challenge the lower highs line
Close above the ema50 at 74,859 invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC could extend or unwind the hawkish CPI repricing
Lower highs and higher lows coiling below EMAs after Sunday's flush.
The weekend 75,470–76,140 range broke in Sunday's late session, with a flush to the sunday low at 73,443. Since then lower highs at 75,597, 75,474 and 75,330 have formed against higher lows from the monday low at 73,636, coiling into a pennant below a falling ema20 (74,615) and ema50 (74,909). Supply capped the weekly open area overnight, and Waller's hawkish remarks during London lined up with the slide to the tuesday low at 74,009; RSI(14) is drifting at 42.6 and ATR has compressed from roughly 584 to 433 dollars over the last 20 bars, with price holding below the 38.2% retracement of the sunday drop.
Support: 74,009.49, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,615.42, 74,734.70, 74,908.63
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC and ADP at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print fits the hawkish post-NFP backdrop
An H1 close below the tuesday low at 74,009 and the higher-lows line breaks the pennant lower, exposing the monday low at 73,636 and the sunday low at 73,443
A close back above the ema20 and the weekly open at 74,735 tests the lower-highs line; a close above the ema50 at 74,909 neutralises the compression read
Reclaiming the 50% retracement of the sunday drop near 74,790 would put the 61.8% level near 75,110 in focus
12:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 43 · price 74,297.18
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's Asia-session high; volatility compressing.
BTC has printed lower highs along a descending trendline since the 75330 Tuesday high, set in the Asia session. London pushed a fresh session low at 74009, and price now sits below both the ema20 (74648, turning lower) and the ema50 (74933), with RSI(14) at 43. The rally from the 73636 Monday low into Monday's NY open has been retraced past 61.8%, with the session low sitting near the 78.6% level, while ATR(14) has compressed from 58,715 to 44,453 pips ahead of CPI. The late-Sunday flush to the 73443 Sunday low marks the floor of the window, and Friday's hot NFP keeps the macro backdrop hawkish.
Support: 74,009.49, 73,635.91, 73,443.12
Resistance: 74,647.97, 74,933.22, 75,330.04
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read. A hot core print would add to the hawkish NFP backdrop.
An H1 close below the 74009 session low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 73636 Monday low, then the 73443 Sunday low.
A close back above the ema20 at 74648 and the lower-highs trendline would break the descending sequence, with the ema50 at 74933 next.
A recovery above the 75330 Tuesday high would negate the lower-highs structure.
Thursday's NY-session collapse from the 80,000s to 75,554 followed Wednesday's 81,176 high and set the week's tone. Sunday's reopen extended the move to the 73,506 week low, and a Monday NY rebound then stalled at the Monday high of 75,554. Since then lower highs have stepped down through Asia and London, with price below both ema20 (74,769) and ema50 (75,235) and through the 61.8% of the rebound fib to a 74,101 session low, while RSI(14) drifts to 38.8 and ATR compresses into CPI under the post-NFP hawkish overhang.
Support: 74,100.97, 73,733.55, 73,505.51
Resistance: 74,768.66, 75,234.73, 75,553.84
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this read; a hot core print would pressure the 74,101 session low
An H1 close below the Monday low at 73,734 exposes the week low at 73,506 and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming ema20 at 74,769 and breaking the lower-highs line would neutralise the slide, with ema50 at 75,235 and the Monday high at 75,554 the next caps
10:04 UTC
Downtrend paused, range with lower highs · RSI 43 · price 74,446.22
73,500–75,700 range below EMA(50); lower highs since Sunday open.
The dominant move in this window is the fall from the 81,176 high, which broke down from 80,000 into Thursday's NY session. The Sunday week open then printed a 73,505 week low, and since then BTC has held a 73,500–75,700 range with lower highs, including the range top at 75,703 and the 75,427 high at today's Asia open. Price sits below a flattening EMA(20) at 74,827 and a steadily falling EMA(50) at 75,276. RSI(14) is capped in a 43–55 band and ATR(14) has compressed through the last 20 bars, a coil into US CPI after Friday's hot NFP added to the hawkish backdrop.
Support: 73,733.55
Resistance: 74,826.91, 75,276.34, 75,703.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 74,162 day low exposes the 73,734 monday low and the 73,505 week low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 74,827 and the lower highs line breaks the sequence, with the ema50 at 75,276 the next cap
Close above the 75,703 range top invalidates the lower-highs read and brings the 38.2% retrace of the 81,176–73,505 drop near 76,436 into view
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h): a core print at or above 0.3% vs 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read, given the compressed ATR
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 74,414.15
Lower highs inside a 73,500–75,550 band since the Sunday reopen.
Thursday's NY-session breakdown from the 80,000–80,900 shelf set the week's dominant move. The Sunday reopen extended the 81,176–73,506 decline to a fresh week low, and price has since held a 73,700–75,550 band that stays below the 23.6% retracement near 75,315. Since early Tuesday, highs have stepped lower from 75,427 beneath a falling ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) contained at 43–55 and ATR(14) compressing as the market digests Friday's hot payrolls ahead of today's CPI.
Support: 74,360.95, 73,733.55, 73,505.51
Resistance: 74,860.91, 75,307.86, 75,553.84
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs line and the ema20 at 74,861 would loosen the drift; the ema50 at 75,308 and the Monday high at 75,554 sit just above
The current bar is probing the Tuesday low at 74,361; a close below it exposes the Monday low at 73,734 and the 73,506 week low
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline 0.3% m/m, core 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read, with Waller speaking at 09:00 UTC
ATR(14) has compressed from about 659 to 462 in price terms over 20 bars; a range break on the CPI release would end the consolidation read
Higher lows vs lower highs since Sunday's open, inside the 81,176–73,506 drop.
The week's dominant move was the NY-session slide on Thursday from the 80k plateau to 75.5k. Friday's hot NFP (165K vs 65K) extended it to 74,873, and Sunday's open printed the week low at 73,506, completing the 81,176–73,506 drop. Since then, H1 has built higher lows (73,734, then the 74,361 swing low) against lower highs capped near the 75,554 range top. Price sits just below a flat ema20 and below a falling ema50, with RSI(14) parked in the mid-40s to mid-50s and ATR contracting from about $640 to $465, consistent with compression ahead of CPI.
Support: 74,360.95, 73,733.55, 73,505.51
Resistance: 75,332.25, 75,553.84
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is the likely trigger to resolve the compression
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could tilt the pre-CPI tone
An H1 close below the 74,361 swing low breaks the higher-lows line
An H1 close above the ema50 at 75,332 and the 75,554 range top would end the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 73,734 higher low exposes the 73,506 week low
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing below both EMAs · RSI 45 · price 74,730.47
Lower highs and higher lows since Sunday reopen, contracting range under the Nov 5 breakdown.
The dominant move came Thursday from London into the NY open, when BTC broke from the 80.5K plateau to 75.5K, and Sunday's reopen extended it to a 73,505 weekly low. Since then price has coiled between lower highs (75,703, 75,554, 75,427) and higher lows (73,734 Monday low, 74,361 Asia low). The rebounds have stalled near the 23.6% fib of the drop and the declining EMA(50), and Monday's NY-open push failed there. Price is now just under EMA(20) at 74,881, with RSI(14) at 44.6 holding the 43–55 band and ATR(14) compressing steadily, consistent with the market waiting on today's CPI after Friday's hawkish payrolls beat.
Support: 74,360.95, 73,733.55
Resistance: 74,881.16, 75,426.84, 75,772.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could resolve the contracting range either way
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC may move price before CPI
H1 close above the 75,427 lower high and EMA(50) breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 75,772 week high
Failure to hold the 74,361 Asia low, then the 73,734 Monday low, exposes the 73,505 weekly low and resumes the downtrend
Sustained H1 closes back above EMA(20) at 74,881 would shift the read toward the top of the range
Lower highs and higher lows since Sunday's 73,506 low, inside a 73,500–75,550 band.
BTC fell from Wednesday's 81,176 high to 75,554 during Thursday's NY session. The Sunday reopen extended the drop to a 73,506 week low as the market digested Friday's hot NFP (165K vs 65K). Since then price has compressed between a higher-lows line off Monday's low and a lower-highs line off Sunday's bounce, recovering less than a quarter of the drop, with ATR(14) easing steadily. Price sits just under the EMA(20) at 74,906 and below a falling EMA(50) at 75,381, with RSI(14) cycling 43–55 and sitting at 47.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could break the compression either side
H1 close above the ema50 at 75,381 and Monday high at 75,554 breaks the lower-highs line and the down-leg structure
Loss of the Asia low at 74,361 and the higher-lows line puts the Monday low at 73,734 and Sunday low at 73,506 back in play
Lower highs and higher lows since Monday open, narrowing 73,500–75,700 range.
Thursday's NY session drop from the 80,000s to 75,554 broke last week's range. The hot NFP and wage beat on Friday pushed price to 74,873 intrabar, and the Monday open extended to a 73,506 week low. Since then price has compressed between that low and the 75,703 week high. Lower highs at 75,703, 75,554 and 75,427 sit beneath the 23.6% fib of the 81,176–73,506 decline near 75,316. Higher lows hold at the 73,734 swing low and the 74,361 Asia low. Price is pinned just under the ema20 near 74,900 with RSI(14) around 45 and no momentum extreme.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75,427 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression read and puts the 75,703 week high in play
Failure to hold the 74,361 Asia low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 73,734 swing low and the 73,506 week low
A close below the 73,506 week low resumes the downtrend sequence
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
The week's dominant move came in Thursday's NY session, when BTC unwound from the 81,176 high to 75,554. Price then held a 75,000–76,400 band through Friday's hot NFP print, and the Sunday open gapped down to a 73,506 week low. Since then it has stayed compressed below the 75,730 weekly open and near the 23.6% retracement of the 81,176–73,506 drop. A line of lower highs from Friday's 76,365 friday high capped Monday's NY-session bounce and the overnight 75,427 lower high. Monday's higher-low sequence gave way into the 74,361 asia low, with RSI(14) near 45 and price back under both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs line near 75,427 would challenge the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 75,730 weekly open would put the 76,365 friday high back in play
Failure to hold the 74,361 asia low exposes the 73,734 monday low and the 73,506 week low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post sell-off contraction 73.5k–75.7k, lower highs.
The dominant move came at Thursday's NY open. Price slid from the 81,176 high to 75,554, and the slide extended after Friday's hot NFP and the Sunday reopen to a 73,505 week low. Since then BTC has compressed between that week low and lower highs at 75,703, 75,554 (Monday high) and 75,427, repeatedly capped near the 23.6% sell-off fib (~75,316). Asia has slipped under the rising line off Monday's higher low and back below EMA(20) near 74,944, with RSI(14) flat around 48 and ATR(14) near $495.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 75,554 Monday high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the path to the 76,403 Friday high
Failure to hold the 74,412 higher low exposes the 73,505 week low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 74,944 would neutralise the Asia slip under the rising line
02:06 UTC
Lower after weekend range break, recovery compressing · RSI 52 · price 74,959.45
Pennant: lower highs vs higher lows below old range floor.
Friday's dip to 74797 on the hot NFP and wages print recovered into a 75470–76280 weekend range, which broke Sunday at 21:00 UTC with a flush to 73443. Since then, higher lows at 73636, 74319 and 74832 have met lower highs at the 75597 rebound high, 75474 and 75330. That has compressed price into a pennant around the 74735 weekly open, just above the 50% retracement of the Friday–Sunday decline. RSI(14) is flat near 52 through the Asia session, with price just above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), and the old range floor at 75474 now capping the recovery.
Support: 74,832.00, 74,735.00, 74,319.00
Resistance: 75,330.00, 75,474.00, 75,597.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 75330 lower high breaks the pennant top, putting the 75474 range floor and the 75597 rebound high back in play
Failure to hold the 74832 higher low and the 74735 weekly open exposes the 74319 swing low and the pennant base
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%): a hot core print after the hot payroll and wage data, or a soft one against tightened expectations, could resolve the pennant either way
01:04 UTC
Down since late-Sunday flush, now compressing · RSI 57 · price 75,064.33
Lower highs vs higher lows below broken weekend range.
Friday's post-NFP dip to 74797 held, and price ranged quietly through the weekend with a week high of 76282. That range broke late Sunday, around 21:00 UTC, in a flush to the 73443 week low. London set a higher low at 73636 on Monday, and NY hours lifted price to 75474 as the dollar softened on Iran de-escalation, retesting the underside of the old range near the 75504 Monday high. Since then a lower high at 75330 and a higher low at 74319 have tightened the coil. Price sits at the 61.8% retracement and EMA(50) near 75090, above EMA(20) at 74900, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 74,900.00, 74,319.00, 73,443.00
Resistance: 75,330.00, 75,504.00, 76,282.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 75504 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the old weekend range toward the 76282 week high
Loss of ema20 at 74900 and then the 74319 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 73443 week low
Rejection at the 75330 lower high keeps the compression intact below the 61.8% retracement
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC today, could materially shift this read
Weekend range broken lower, rebound into resistance band.
The quiet weekend range of roughly 75,500–76,030 gave way late Sunday with a one-bar flush to 73,443. Monday's London-open low at 73,636 then set the base for a run of higher lows, alongside a softer USD as DXY slipped back below 102.00. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) near 74,910 and EMA(50) near 75,100 and sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the Sunday drop, just under the Monday high at 75,474 and the 75,597 rebound cap, with RSI(14) near 56 showing no stretch either way.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the Monday high at 75,474 and the 75,597 rebound cap opens the path back toward the 76,030 range top
Break of the higher lows line and the 74,319 swing low would end the recovery structure and expose the Monday low at 73,636
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 74,910 on a pullback weakens the higher-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read after the hot payrolls print