21:11 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling inside a range · RSI 57 · price 85,673.65
HH/HL chain since mid-Aug; two-week range 82,566–87,270 below highs.
BTC has been in an uptrend since the mid-August breakout from the 62,500–66,900 summer range. Higher lows formed at the 74,900 swing low (Sep 16) and the 82,566 range low (Sep 28), with price holding above a rising EMA(50) and the rising trendline from the August low. The last two weeks have consolidated between that range low and the 87,270 range high. Upper wicks on Oct 2 and Oct 5 show rejection near 87,000, even after soft US jobs data and ETF inflows lifted BTC back above 86K. RSI in the high 50s and price hovering just above EMA(20) near 84,000 point to cooling momentum rather than reversal.
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 87,270 range high breaks the two-week consolidation and opens the 90,000 round number
- Close below the 82,566 range low and the rising trendline exposes the 81,000 breakout shelf from Sep 18–20
- Loss of the 74,900 swing low, which sits at the 50% fib of the Aug–Sep advance, would break the higher-low chain
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC: a hawkish read with renewed USD demand could extend the rejection near 87,000