BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:48 UTC
Down from NY high, now compressing · RSI 40 · price 85,537.80
Lower highs inside 85,312–85,752 band.
Early NY hours ran price to an 86,526 day high, then a sharp rejection erased most of the London advance, in line with the digest's $86K rejection theme and risk-off USD demand on European debt stress. Since then BTC has compressed between the 85,312 swing low and the 85,752 swing high, with each lower high capping it. Price sits near the 61.8% of the rally fib (85,011 asian low to the day high), RSI(14) around 40, and just under EMA20.
What it said to watch
The 85,312 swing low was swept and reclaimed in the last bars. A close below it, near the 78.6% rally fib, exposes the 85,011 asian low.
A break of the lower highs line plus a close above the 85,752 swing high, near the 50% rally fib, would void the compression read and reopen 86,000.
Rejection again at the 85,637 lower high keeps the post-NY sequence of lower highs intact.
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next scheduled catalyst. Until then the USD and risk tone from French debt stress drives the tape, with the 86,526 day high as the upper reference.
23:33 UTC
Short-term down after NY rejection, momentum soft · RSI 35 · price 85,411.94
Lower highs inside post-NY range, price at range floor.
London broke the asian high at 86004 and NY extended to the 86526 ny high before a sharp rejection back inside the Asian range, retracing beyond the 61.8% of the rally fib. Since then a lower-highs trendline has capped price below the 85752 range high, and the 85374 swing low is being tested late in the session with RSI(14) near 35 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 85,374.00, 85,011.00
Resistance: 85,752.00, 86,004.00, 86,526.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85374 swing low breaks the post-NY range floor and exposes the asian low at 85011
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 85752 range high negates the drift lower, with the 86004 asian high next
Reclaim of the 86526 ny high would invalidate the rejection read
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) sit outside this window but frame the next NY session
Lower highs off NY high into tight 85,374–85,752 range.
The early-NY push to the 86,526 ny high was rejected and the selloff retraced the full London rally, in line with the risk-off USD tone from European debt stress. Price has since compressed between the 85,374 swing low and the 85,752 swing high, with each lower high capping bounces into the Asia session open. RSI(14) sits at 39, below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,446 late low and the 85,374 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 85,011 asian low
M15 close above the 85,681 lower high and the 85,752 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and the compression
Reclaim of the 0.5 level of the ny selloff fib near 85,950 would negate the post-NY rejection read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:05 UTC
Pullback from session high, now compressing · RSI 50 · price 85,506.83
Lower highs from 85,751 against higher lows off 85,374; tightening range near the 61.8% fib.
The NY open push to the 86,526 ny high was rejected inside an hour. That unwound to the 85,374 swing low by 19:15 UTC as broad USD demand weighed on risk. Since then price has compressed between the 85,446 late low and the 85,751 range top, with lower highs against higher lows. It is holding around the 61.8% fib of the London rally from the 85,011 asian low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85,751 range top breaks the lower-highs line and puts the psych 86,000 level back in play
Failure to hold the 85,374 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 85,011 asian low
Reclaim of the 86,526 ny high negates the NY-session rejection
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next scheduled USD catalyst that could reset this compression
22:48 UTC
Down off NY high, now flat · RSI 49 · price 85,546.79
Post-rejection range 85374–85752, lower highs compressing.
London's rally out of the Asian range extended at NY open to an 86526 ny high, then reversed sharply. That stall matches the digest's $86K shooting-star read and the broader USD risk-off tone. After NY close price is compressing between the 85374 range base and 85752 range top, with lower highs at 85681 and below the 23.6% of the sell-off fib (~85646); RSI(14) is near 49 above the 85446 micro low, with no directional setup in play.
Support: 85,446.00, 85,374.00, 85,011.00
Resistance: 85,681.00, 85,752.00, 86,526.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85752 range top breaks the lower highs and opens the 38.2% sell-off retracement near 85814
Failure to hold the 85446 micro low and the 85374 range base exposes the 85011 asian low
Asia session open may break the current compression; range edges define the read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk that could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 85,751 pressing on flat swing low 85,374; deep fib retrace.
London lifted price from the 85,011 asian low through the 86,004 asian high, and NY extended it to 86,526 before a rejection near the $86K area flagged in the news unwound most of the move into the 61.8–78.6% fib zone. Since then each bounce has stalled at a lower high (85,751 swing high, then 85,680) while the 85,374 swing low holds. Price is below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 42 and ATR is contracting into the Asia session.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,374 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 85,011 asian low
Close above the 85,680 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 85,751 swing high, then the 86,004 asian high above
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for USD and risk tone
Lower highs compressing above swing low after NY rejection.
The London-NY rally from the 85,011 Asia low was rejected at the 86,525 session high after 15:30 UTC. The drop gave back the move into the 61.8% fib near 85,590 as a risk-off USD tone weighed. Early Asia is now compressing between the 85,374 swing low and a line of lower highs capped by the 85,751 swing high, with price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,751 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and the compression read
Failure to hold the 85,374 swing low exposes the 85,011 Asia low near the 78.6%–100% fib zone
A reclaim of the 86,525 session high would negate the NY rejection
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD tone and this read
22:05 UTC
Sideways after NY rejection, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 85,585.75
Compressing in a post-NY range inside the Asian range, descending highs.
London broke above the Asian high at 86,004 and the NY open extended it to a session high at 86,526, but price was rejected and fell back into the Asian range. Price has held below the 23.6% of the NY drop for about five hours. Since then it has chopped in an 85,374–85,752 range with descending highs, RSI(14) near 48 and price just under EMA20 as NY hours give way to the Asia session, while USD demand on French debt contagion caps risk appetite.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,752 range high breaks the descending highs and opens a retest of the 86,004 asian high
Failure to hold the 85,374 range low exposes the 85,011 asian low
Reclaim of 86,004 needed before the 86,526 session high rejection comes back into question
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the read via USD
21:48 UTC
Pullback from NY high, now compressing · RSI 37 · price 85,557.78
Lower highs above a flat 85,374 base.
BTC was rejected at the 86,525 NY session high and gave back about 70% of the day's rally from the 85,011 Asian low. Buyers held the 85,374 swing low twice, at 17:15 and 19:00 UTC, and the latest dip stopped at the 85,459 recent low. Since NY close, price has compressed under a line of lower highs near the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) near 37 and the 86K failure in line with the digest's rejection read.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,374 swing low and the 78.6% fib (~85,335) confirms a lower-low and exposes the 85,011 asian low
Close above the 85,680 lower high and 85,751 swing high breaks the lower-highs line
Reclaim of the 86,004 asian high would undo the NY rejection
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and USD risk tone could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 86,526 peak; compressing above twice-held swing low.
The London-NY rally from the 85,011 Asian low cleared the 86,004 Asian high and peaked at 86,526, in line with the digest's $86K resistance zone. Price then reversed back inside the Asian range and now coils near the 61.8% fib, below EMA20, under a lower-high sequence at 85,752 swing high and 85,680 lower high. The 85,374 swing low has held twice; RSI(14) at 37 is soft but not oversold, and post-NY trade is thin.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,459 late low exposes the 85,374 swing low; failure there opens the 85,011 asian low
Close above the 85,680 lower high and the 85,752 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the compression read
Reclaim of the 86,004 asian high would put the 86K rejection area back in play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
21:18 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since NY high · RSI 43 · price 85,540.80
NY reversal from 86,526, now compressing 85,374–85,750.
London lifted price from the 85,011 asian low to an 86,526 NY high early in NY hours. That high was rejected, and the drop retraced past the 61.8% level of the London rally fib. Price is now compressing above the 85,374 swing low and under a lower-highs trendline from the 85,752 swing high, with RSI(14) at 43 and price below both EMAs as broad USD demand on European debt stress weighs, with no BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,680 lower high and 85,752 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the pullback read
Loss of the 85,490 minor low then the 85,374 swing low exposes the 78.6% London rally fib near 85,335 and the 85,011 asian low
Reclaim of the 86,526 ny high would negate the NY rejection
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next event risk
21:09 UTC
Pullback from NY high, flattening · RSI 46 · price 85,592.74
Lower highs above a double low at 85,374–85,387.
The ny high at 86,525.71 was rejected during NY hours. Price unwound to the 61.8% retracement of the London rally from the 85,011 day low, and a double low at 85,374–85,387 has held since. Price is now compressing under a lower high at 85,680 and the 85,752 swing high in thin post-NY trade, below EMA20/EMA50, with no fresh BTC-specific news in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,680 lower high and 85,752 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and re-opens the 50% London rally retracement near 85,769
Failure to hold the 85,374 double low exposes the 85,011 day low
Reclaim of the ny high at 86,525.71 would negate the rejection read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC sit beyond the next few hours but could materially shift this read; Asia session flow is likely thin until then
20:48 UTC
Pullback after NY rejection, now flat · RSI 52 · price 85,629.70
Lower highs since NY high, compressing at 61.8% fib.
The London-NY rally off the 85011 asia low ran into rejection at the 86526 ny high and unwound fast to the 85374 swing low, in line with the digest's read of BTC failing to hold $86K against risk-off USD demand. Late NY, price is compressing at 85550–85650 around the 61.8% fib of that rally, sitting just under EMA20 and capped by a lower high at 85752.
Support: 85,373.98, 85,011.38
Resistance: 85,751.56, 86,000.00, 86,525.71
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85752 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 86000 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 85374 swing low exposes the 78.6% fib near 85335 and then the 85011 asia low
A return to the 86526 ny high would test whether the rejection holds
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:33 UTC
Pullback after NY high rejection, ranging · RSI 45 · price 85,586.75
Lower highs since 86,525; 85,374–85,751 range late NY.
The NY session high at 86,525 was rejected sharply. Price fell back into a 85,374–85,751 range that has held through late NY, and now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asia low to NY high rally, below ema20 with RSI(14) near 45. There is no BTC-specific news; the fade fits the risk-off USD headwind flagged into Wednesday's FOMC Minutes.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,751 range high reclaims ema20 and breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 85,374 swing low exposes the 85,011 asia low and the 78.6% fib
A recovery through the 86,000 round number is needed before the 86,525 ny high comes back into view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
86,526 high rejected, lower highs above 85,374 base.
The London-to-NY rally off the 85,011 Asia low topped at the 86,526 session high and was rejected sharply, unwinding back below the 86K round number. Late in the NY session price is ranging between the 85,374 swing low and the 85,752 swing high, near the 61.8% fib of the London rally, with lower highs capping. RSI(14) sits around 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,374 swing low extends the reversal toward the 85,011 Asia low (78.6% fib near 85,335)
Close above the 85,752 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 86K round number back in play
Reclaim of the 86,526 session high negates the rejection read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk that could reset this structure
20:05 UTC
Intraday pullback after NY reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 85,611.72
Lower highs since the NY peak; range 85,374–85,752 inside the Asian range.
London cleared the asian high at 86,004 and NY extended to a 86,526 session high, but the push above the London top was quickly rejected. The reversal gave back the day's gains with no BTC-specific catalyst. Price is now ranging between the 85,374 ny low and the 85,752 lower high, below both EMAs and sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the 85,011–86,526 rally, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,374 ny low breaks the range floor and exposes the 85,011 asian low
Close above the 85,752 lower high reopens the 86,004 asian high
Only a reclaim of the 86,526 session high negates the NY rejection
Failure to hold the 61.8% retrace near 85,590 shifts the read toward a full retrace of the rally
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC frame USD risk tone and could materially shift this read
19:49 UTC
Intraday reversal, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 43 · price 85,538.80
NY high 86526 rejected; lower high 85752, base at 85374–85387.
London broke the Asian high at 86004 and NY extended the move to 86526, but the rejection there unwound most of the asian low–ny high leg, putting price back inside the Asian range. Late in the NY session, price is basing at the 85374 swing low below the 61.8% fib at 85590, with the 85752 bounce a lower high near the 50% retrace. RSI(14) is 43 and price sits below both EMAs; with no BTC-specific news, USD and French-debt risk tone is the driver.
Support: 85,374.00, 85,335.00, 85,011.00
Resistance: 85,590.00, 85,752.00, 86,004.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85752 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 86004 asian high
Failure to hold the 85374 swing low exposes the fib 78.6 at 85335, then the 85011 asian low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and USD/French-debt headlines could materially shift this read
NY high rejected; late-NY lower highs above swing low.
BTC broke above the 86,004 Asian high during London and printed an 86,526 NY high, which was rejected. The move back inside the Asian range erased most of the rise from the 85,011 Asian low and left price in the 61.8–78.6% retracement band. Late NY trade is compressing between the 85,374 swing low and the 85,752 lower high, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs, against a USD-led macro tape.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,374 swing low exposes the 78.6% retracement near 85,335 and the 85,011 asian low
M15 close above the 85,752 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 86,004 asian high
Only a recovery through the 86,526 ny high negates the rejection read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:18 UTC
Pulled back from NY high, short-term lower highs · RSI 41 · price 85,471.87
Post-rejection range 85,374–85,752 inside the Asian range.
NY session pushed through the London high to an 86,526 session high, then reversed and gave back the whole London advance as euro-debt stress weighed on risk appetite. Price is back inside the Asian range, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 41. Since then a lower high at 85,752 has capped the recovery while the 85,374 ny low holds, leaving price near the 78.6% retracement of the rally from the Asian low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,374 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 85,011 asian low
Close back above the 85,752 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline and neutralises the post-rejection read
Reclaim of the 86,004 asian high reopens the 86,526 session high
Rally fib 61.8% near 85,590 is the first area to watch on any bounce
London-NY rally fully rejected; lower highs inside a 85,387–85,752 band.
London lifted BTC off the 85,011 day low and through the Asian high at 86,004. NY extended that to an 86,526 session high at 15:00 UTC before a sharp rejection erased most of the rally, with a firmer USD and European debt stress weighing on risk. Since the London close, price has printed lower highs inside a 85,387 swing low to 85,752 lower high band and now sits just above the fib 78.6 at 85,335, with RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,387 swing low exposes the fib 78.6 at 85,335 and the 85,011 day low
Recovery above the 85,752 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 86,004 Asian high
Failure back at the 86,526 session high would confirm the false break of the Asian high as the session's defining move
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
18:48 UTC
Intraday rally reversed, drifting below both EMAs · RSI 42 · price 85,545.79
NY session high rejected, lower highs into a 85,387–85,751 range.
London lifted BTC from the 85,011 Asian low to a 86,525 session high in early NY, but that push was rejected and price has slipped back to the 61.8 fib near 85,590. Since mid-NY it has held a 85,387 swing low to 85,751 lower high range, with a firmer USD and European debt stress weighing on risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,387 swing low reopens the 85,011 Asian low
Hold back above the 61.8 fib and the 85,751 lower high would ease the reversal read and break the falling trendline
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst that could shift this structure
London broke the Asian range high near the 86,000 round number and NY extended to an 86,526 day high, but a sharp rejection from 15:00 UTC gave the move back, in line with the digest's read of BTC stalling at $86K. Late in the NY session price sits just above the 61.8% fib of the 85,011–86,526 day low-to-high leg, between a 85,387 swing low (a higher low versus the day low) and a 85,752 lower high. RSI(14) is near 41.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85,752 lower high and the 86,000 round number reopens the 86,526 day high
Loss of the 85,387 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 85,011 day low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NY rejection from session high; bounce capped near 50% fib, lower high forming.
London cleared the 86,004 asian high and the NY session extended it to an 86,526 session high, before a sharp rejection gave back about 75% of the move from the 85,011 asian low to an 85,387 pullback low, in line with the digest's read of BTC stalling near $86K on a firm-USD, thin-flow tape. The bounce is stalling under the 50% fib at 85,769, with price below EMA20 and EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 85,769 (50% fib) and then 86,004 (asian high) reopens the 86,526 session high
Failure at the 50% fib turns the 61.8% fib at 85,590 into the first test
Break of the 85,387 pullback low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 85,011 asian low
No US data in the next 8h; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst that could shift this read
18:05 UTC
Intraday downswing off NY high, early bounce · RSI 49 · price 85,720.60
Lower low at 85,387 after NY-high rejection; price back inside Asian range.
London broke above the Asian high at 86,004 and the NY open extended to an 86,526 day high, before a sharp rejection put price back inside the Asian range and down to an 85,387 NY low. The late-NY bounce to 85,720 sits just under EMA20/50 and the 38.2% fib of the NY drop at 85,822. The move fits the digest's read of BTC stalling near $86K with no fresh catalyst.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 38.2% fib at 85,822 and the EMAs opens a retest of the 86,004 Asian high
Failure to hold the 85,387 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 85,011 Asian low
Calendar is clear for the next 8h; FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) is the next scheduled driver
17:48 UTC
Intraday reversal lower, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 41 · price 85,527.81
NY rejection at the 86526 session high; price back inside the Asian range under a lower-high line.
London cleared the 86004 Asian high and NY extended to an 86526 session high. Price then reversed sharply, giving back the move toward the 78.6% retrace of the 85011–86526 leg with no BTC-specific catalyst. Since the 85387 NY low it has been coiling under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 85,386.97, 85,181.19, 85,011.38
Resistance: 85,702.62, 86,004.29, 86,525.71
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85387 ny low exposes the 85181 swing low and the 85011 asian low
M15 close above the lower-high line and the 85703 bounce high reclaims the 61.8% fib zone; 86004 asian high is next
Rejection from the 86526 session high stays the dominant feature unless that high is retaken
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~24h) sit beyond this window; near-term tone tracks dollar and yields
17:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the NY session high · RSI 37 · price 85,485.86
Lower highs and lower lows since 86,526; price back inside the Asian range after a failed break higher.
London carried BTC through the 86,000 Asian high to an 86,526 NY high, but rejection there unwound most of the rally fib, slipping below its 61.8% level in a lower-high/lower-low chain. Late NY session finds price just above the 85,387 NY low, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 37, on a risk-off tape with no BTC-specific catalyst.
What it said to watch
Break of the 85,387 NY low confirms another lower-low and exposes the 85,011 Asian low
M15 close above the 85,700 lower high breaks the descending sequence
Reclaim of the 86,000 Asian high would void the false-break read, with the 86,526 NY high above
No US events in the next 8h; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
17:18 UTC
Short-term down after NY reversal, momentum cooling · RSI 36 · price 85,454.89
Lower highs from 85703, pressing the NY session low.
The London leg from the 85011 Asia low topped at the 86526 session high in NY hours. The NY session has since unwound most of it, slicing through the 61.8% retracement of the London leg into an 85420 NY low. Lower highs off the 85703 bounce high leave price below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 36, consistent with the 86k psych zone capping again against a risk-off, dollar-bid tone.
Support: 85,420.00, 85,181.00, 85,011.00
Resistance: 85,703.00, 86,526.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85703 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 85420 ny low exposes the 78.6% of the London leg near 85335, then the 85181 swing low and 85011 asia low
No US data in the next 8h; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled driver
Lower highs and lows since the 86525 NY high, back inside the Asian range.
The London rally off the 85011 London low pushed through the 86004 Asia high into a 86525 NY high in the first hours of NY. It was rejected there and has unwound below the 61.8% fib and the rally line, holding just above the 85444 NY low with RSI(14) near 36. The fade fits the risk-off USD bid tied to French debt stress in the digest; no scheduled release hit inside the window.
Support: 85,443.90, 85,181.19, 85,011.38
Resistance: 85,589.85, 86,004.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85444 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 85181 Asia low and 85011 London low
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib near 85590 and the broken rally line would stall the NY reversal read
Supply capping at the 86004 Asia high keeps price contained in the Asian range
Fed speakers Williams and Bowman today could move USD and shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk
NY reversal from session high, testing 61.8% retrace.
London cleared the Asian high at 86004 and NY extended to a 86526 session high. The move was rejected within the hour, falling back below the Asian high, breaking the london trend line and stalling at the 61.8% fib near 85590. RSI(14) sits near 43 with price below both EMAs, and the 85444 pullback low is the nearest floor after London close.
Support: 85,443.90, 85,335.45, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,004.29, 86,525.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85444 pullback low exposes fib 78.6 near 85335, then the Asian low at 85011
Reclaim of fib 50% at 85770 and the 86004 Asian high would undo the false break read
Fed speakers today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-low below NY swing low after session-high rejection.
London lifted BTC off the 85,011 Asian low and the NY open extended it to a 86,525 session high, but that high was rejected. Price has since unwound to the 61.8% fib near 85,590, broken the intraday rising trendline and made a lower-low at 85,505 below the 85,800 NY swing low, with France-driven USD demand and risk-off as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,505 swing low exposes the 85,318 asian pivot, then the 85,011 asian low
Reclaim of the 85,800 ny swing low and psych 86,000 would negate the lower-low read; 86,525 session high caps above
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Fed speakers could shift USD and risk tone around this read
16:19 UTC
Intraday uptrend broken by sharp NY reversal · RSI 41 · price 85,619.71
False break above London high, back inside Asian range.
London lifted BTC above the 86,004 Asian high, and the NY open briefly extended above the 86,254 London high to a 86,526 ny high. That move was rejected with a roughly 950-point drop through 86K and the rising trendline, retracing toward the 85,557 ny low. Price now sits on the 61.8% retracement of the asian low–ny high move near 85,590 with RSI(14) at 41, while USD strength on French debt stress weighs on risk.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,557 ny low breaks the 61.8% retracement and opens the path back toward the 85,011 asian low
Reclaiming the 85,795 prior low and the 86,004 asian high would neutralise the rejection read; the 86,526 ny high is the cap above
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and further France debt-driven USD strength could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 85,011 Asian low broken below the 85,800 higher low; price back inside the Asian range.
NY extended London's break of the 86,004 Asian high to a 86,526 session high at 15:00 UTC. Price then dropped about $950 into London close, cutting through the 85,800 prior HL and the rising trendline, and now sits on the 61.8% fib near 85,590 with RSI(14) at 41. The failure back below $86K fits the risk-off, USD-firm tone from France debt stress.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,533 london low exposes the fib 78.6 / 02:00 UTC swing at 85,335, then the asian low at 85,011
Reclaim of the 85,800 prior hl and the 86,004 asian high would neutralise the rejection read
Fresh risk-off USD demand from France debt contagion could extend the reversal; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rejected at session high · RSI 49 · price 85,945.35
Higher lows from the Asian low; sharp NY rejection from 86,525 back onto the rising trendline.
London broke the asian high at 86,004 and NY extended to a 86,525 session high. Two bars then erased the NY leg back to the 38.2% fib of the 85,011–86,525 rally. Mid-NY, price sits on the rising trendline from the Asian low, just under the $86K area, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and the France-driven USD bid a headwind.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ny low at 85,794 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain from the Asian low
Below 85,794, the fib 61.8 near 85,590 and the london low at 85,532 are the next swing references
Reclaim of the asian high at 86,004 puts the prior high at 86,254 and the session high at 86,525 back in focus
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; escalating France debt stress and risk-off USD demand could shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 85,011 Asia low; Asian range broken higher, NY pressing the session high.
London cleared the Asian range high near 86,000. NY then extended the higher-high chain to a session high at 86,526, with the push coming in the 14:45 UTC Bowman slot. Dips into NY held twice at the 85,795 swing low, and RSI(14) near 58 is not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,526 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 87,000 round number, the base of the 87-88K zone
Failure to hold the 86,254 london high puts the 50% fib of the Asia-low-to-session-high move near 85,769 back in play
Break below the 85,795 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher highs since London; NY high at 86327 cleared.
London broke the Asian high at 86004 off an 85011 Asian low and built higher highs. In NY, buyers held the 85800 swing low twice before the 14:45 UTC bar, during Bowman's scheduled remarks, cleared the 86327 NY high to a session high at 86519. RSI(14) near 59 is not stretched, the rising trendline from the Asian low sits near 85870, and 38.2% of the Asian low leg is near 85940.
Support: 86,327.00, 86,004.00, 85,800.00
Resistance: 86,519.00, 87,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86327 ny high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 85800 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Extension toward the 87000 round number tests the $87-88K cap flagged in the news
Rejection at the 86519 session high on the current bar would leave the 86004 asian high as the next shelf
14:48 UTC
Uptrend, chopping near session high · RSI 54 · price 86,144.13
Higher lows since the Asian low; wide NY range 85,795–86,327.
London climbed off the 85,011 Asian low and broke the Asian high near 86,004, extending to a 86,327 session high in the first hour of NY. Since then wide two-way bars between the 85,795 swing low and that high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and the rising trendline holding, while firm USD and Bowman's remarks keep the NY range wide.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,795 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline; the 38.2% of the London rally sits just above it
Failure to hold the Asian high at 86,004 turns the breakout into chop
Clean break of the 86,327 session high opens the 87,000 psych level, base of the 87-88K cap
Bowman speaking at 14:45 UTC could materially widen this read
London HH/HL chain broke the Asian high; NY session high rejected and price is back below it.
London broke above the Asian high at 86,004 and stepped up to a London high at 86,254. The NY open printed a session high at 86,327 and was rejected back to the 85,795 NY low, leaving price below the Asian high and at the 38.2% fib of the 85,011 Asian low to session high leg, RSI(14) near 46.
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC, with a firm USD backdrop, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 85,795 NY low exposes the 85,533 swing low near the 61.8% fib
Reclaiming the 86,004 Asian high puts the 86,254 London high and 86,327 session high back in play
A move back toward the 85,011 Asian low would unwind the full London leg
Higher highs and higher lows since the 85011 Asian-session low; early NY, holding above the broken Asian range high.
London cleared the Asian range high at 86004 and the NY open extended the climb to a 86327 session high. The pullback to the 85921 NY low found demand and price is back near 86170, with USD easing on lower yields. Higher lows at 85533 and 85818 keep the intraday uptrend and rising trendline intact; RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR(14) is roughly $210.
Support: 85,921.38, 85,818.49, 85,532.81
Resistance: 86,326.93, 87,000.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 85818 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% fib, breaks the HH/HL chain; the 85533 higher low is next
Loss of the 85921 NY low puts the rising trendline under test
M15 close above the 86327 session high opens the 87000 round number
HH/HL chain from Asian low, above broken Asian high.
London broke the Asian high near 86,004 and built a higher-high, higher-low chain off the 85,011 Asian low. The NY open spiked to a session high at 86,327 as yields and the USD eased. The 85,818 higher low holds the rising support line, and RSI(14) sits mid-range near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,327 session high opens yesterday's 86,542 prior high
Break below the 85,818 higher low and rising support ends the intraday HH/HL chain
Retest of the 86,004 Asian high: a hold keeps the breakout read intact
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian range; HH/HL sequence into early NY.
London cleared the Asian high at 86,004 and has stepped higher off the 85,434 London low, despite a USD firmed by French debt stress. The first hour of NY dipped to the 85,818 swing low, then printed a new session high at 86,282; RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and yesterday's prior high at 86,555 is the next reference above.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 86,004 (asian high) returns price inside the Asian range
Break of the 85,818 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain; the 38.2% fib of the Asian low-to-session high leg sits near 85,797
Close above the 86,282 session high opens the 86,555 prior high
Loss of the 85,434 london low would unwind the London advance
Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
13:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 85,011, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 85,878.42
London higher-low chain broken at 85,818; price back under Asian high.
London broke out of the 85,011–86,004 Asian range and reached a 86,254 session high. Around Williams' 13:05 UTC remarks, price slipped to an 85,818 pullback low, breaking the London higher-low chain. At the NY open BTC sits back under the Asian high, just below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and fib 38.2 of the London leg at 85,779.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 86,004 asian high restores the breakout read; above the 86,254 session high, the 86,555 monday high is next
Failure to hold the 85,818 pullback low exposes fib 38.2 at 85,779 and the 85,533 swing low
Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read, with FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC the larger event risk
13:19 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, momentum stalling · RSI 53 · price 85,946.35
HH/HL chain from 85011; first lower high at 86173, price back under asian high.
London broke the asian high at 86004 and the leg ran to an 86254 session high, but a lower high at 86173 during the London-NY transition has price back under 86004, testing the 85919 pullback low with RSI(14) neutral near 53. A firm USD on EU debt stress is weighing on risk into NY hours.
Support: 85,919.38, 85,532.81, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,004.29, 86,254.01, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85919 pullback low breaks the HL chain; the 38.2% of the London leg fib sits near 85780
Failure to hold the 85533 swing low unwinds most of the London leg toward the 85011 asian low
Recovery above the 86004 asian high restores the breakout; a close above the 86254 session high opens yesterday's 86555 prior high
Williams remarks and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
HH/HL chain from 85,011 low; pullback onto broken Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 86,004 and extended to a session high of 86,254 before stalling. Price is back at that pivot in the London-NY transition, testing the rising trendline and the 85,961 higher low with RSI(14) at a neutral 55, while a firm USD on EU debt stress limits follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,961 higher low breaks the London HL chain and exposes the 38.2 fib of the London leg at 85,779
Loss of the 85,533 swing low, the rising trendline anchor, unwinds most of the London leg back into the Asian range
Reclaim of the 86,254 session high reopens the 86,555 prior high from Monday's NY session
Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on October hike odds could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian range, now holding just over the Asian high.
From the 85011 Asian low, London built a HH/HL chain through the 86004 Asian high to an 86254 session high. The ADP beat at 12:15 UTC knocked price to a higher low at 85961, at the 23.6% fib and above trendline support. RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched heading into the London-NY transition.
Support: 86,004.00, 85,961.00, 85,533.00
Resistance: 86,254.00, 86,555.00, 87,000.00
What it said to watch
Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 86004 asian high returns price to the Asian range
Loss of the 85961 higher low and trendline support breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the 85533 swing low near the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 86254 session high opens the path to the 86555 prior high, then the 87000 round number
12:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend since London, stalling at session high · RSI 55 · price 85,971.32
HH/HL from asian low 85011, sharp rejection at session high back to asian high.
London lifted BTC off the asian low at 85011 through the asian high at 86004 to a session high of 86254. The 12:15 UTC bar around ADP then rejected the high and pushed price back to the asian high, now sitting on the 23.6% of the London leg fib near 85960 with EMA20 around 85905 just below, against a firm-USD backdrop.
Support: 85,858.45, 85,532.81, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,004.29, 86,254.01, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
A close back below 85858 (swing low) breaks the London HH/HL chain and exposes the 50% of the London leg fib near 85633 and the pullback low at 85533
Reclaiming 86004 (asian high) and then a close above 86254 (session high) reopens the prior high at 86555
Asian low at 85011 is the line between a pullback and a full reversal of the London leg
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift USD and hike pricing mid-NY session
London broke above the Asian range high; HH/HL chain intact.
The London leg ran from the 85011 asian low through the 86004 asian high, printing higher lows along a rising trendline into a 86254 session high, with RSI(14) near 65. Yesterday's 86554 prior high is the next overhead level as price grinds higher despite the risk-off USD tone from the France debt scare.
Support: 86,004.29, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,254.01
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86004 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Loss of the rising trendline and the 85532 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the 38.2% of the London leg sits near 85780
Rejection at the 86254 session high or the 86554 prior high is the area to watch into NY open
Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC and Bowman at 14:45 UTC on hike odds could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher in London, HH/HL chain from 85,011.
London broke above the asian high at 86,004 and pushed to a session high of 86,225, with higher lows building off the 85,011 Asian low along rising support. Price is holding near 86,100 ahead of NY, with RSI(14) around 63 and not stretched, as soft-NFP Fed relief meets a firm USD tape.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86,004 asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Clearance of the 86,225 session high opens the path to the 86,554 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Loss of the 85,858 higher low, then the 85,533 swing low, breaks the HL chain and rising support
ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low, holding above Asian range high.
London broke above the Asian high at 86,004. Price has since built a higher-low chain off the 85,011 Asian low, and the session high at 86,225 is capping for now. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched, and the London rally has retraced most of yesterday's slide from the 86,555 prior high despite a firm USD on France debt stress.
Support: 86,004.29, 85,858.45, 85,532.81
Resistance: 86,225.04, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86004 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Loss of the 85858 higher low breaks the London higher-low line; the 85533 swing low sits below
Close above the 86225 session high opens the 86555 prior high
Pullback holding the 38.2% fib of the London rally (~85,760) keeps the higher-low structure intact
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) into NY open could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asian low; London trading above the Asian range high.
London lifted price off the 85011 Asian low through the Asian high at 86004, printing a session high at 86225 after a higher low at the 85533 swing low. Price is now stalling just above the $86K pivot, with RSI(14) near 64, while a firm USD caps follow-through ahead of Fed speakers.
Support: 86,004.29, 85,532.81, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,225.04, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86004 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 85533 swing low ends the higher-low chain and breaks the rising trendline
Close above the 86225 session high opens the 86555 prior high from yesterday's NY spike
A loss of the full move toward the 85011 asian low would retrace the London leg, measured by the fib
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) in the first hours of NY could shift this read
London lifted price from the 85,011 Asia low, cleared the 86,004 Asian high and is printing a session high at 86,189, with each pullback holding a higher low along the rising trendline. RSI(14) sits near 71, hot but not stretched. Yesterday's NY prior high at 86,555 is the next overhead level, while the 86K area is still flagged as a rejection pivot against a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 86,004 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 85,917 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain
Break below the 85,533 swing low unwinds the London rally
Acceptance above the 86,555 prior high exposes the 87,000 round number
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD tone into the NY session
11:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 85,011 Asian low · RSI 67 · price 86,018.27
Higher lows 85,011 → 85,533; Asian range high broken during London.
London lifted price out of the Asian range, from the 85,011 Asian low through the 86,004 Asian high to a session high at 86,113. The London leg carved higher lows at 85,011 and 85,533 (swing low). Price is now sitting on the old Asian high near the $86K pivot with RSI(14) around 67, as a firm USD caps follow-through.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 86,004 asian high returns price to the Asian range and turns the breakout into a false break
A break of the 85,533 swing low, on the higher-low line, ends the London leg higher-low chain; the 50–61.8% fib sits at 85,560–85,430
Clearance of the 86,113 session high exposes the 86,555 prior high from yesterday's NY spike
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC land in NY hours and could shift this read
10:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 69 · price 86,036.25
HL chain from 85,011; Asian high cleared in London.
London extended the rebound from the 85,011 Asian low, cleared the Asian high at 86,004 and printed a session high at 86,076. The 85,533 swing low held as a higher low near the 50% fib. Price is pressing the 86K pivot below yesterday's 86,555 ISM spike high, with RSI(14) near 69 and USD strength still a headwind per the macro tape.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 86,004 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 85,533 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 86,076 session high exposes the 86,555 ism spike high
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) ahead of the NY open could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend since London open, stalling at highs · RSI 67 · price 85,972.32
Higher highs and higher lows off the 85,011 Asian low; testing the Asian high.
The London open lifted BTC off the 85,011 Asian low into a higher-high, higher-low chain. The 85,533 higher low held at the 50% retrace of the move, and price is now stalling just under the 86,004 Asian high after a brief poke to the 86,076 session high, with RSI(14) near 67. The $86K area that rejected yesterday's post-ISM spike to 86,555 is being tested again against a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,076 session high clears the Asian high and puts the 86,555 ism spike back in play
Loss of the 85,533 higher low breaks the London trendline and exposes the 85,011 Asian low, then the 84,839 prior low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Higher lows since the Asian low; Asian high retest.
The London rally off the 85,011 Asian low left a higher low at 85,533, near its 50% retracement, and briefly cleared the 86,004 Asian high to an 86,076 session high before slipping back under it. RSI(14) is near 63. The stall at the $86K pivot comes with no fresh BTC news and a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 86,076 session high confirms the Asian-range break and opens the path to the 86,555 prior high
Failure to hold the 85,533 higher low breaks the London trendline and reopens the 85,011 Asian low
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) into the NY open could materially shift this read
10:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling at 86K · RSI 66 · price 85,873.43
Higher highs and higher lows since 06:30 UTC; wick above the Asian high rejected.
London rebounded from the 85,011 Asian low and briefly cleared the 86,004 Asian high to a 86,076 session high, then slipped back under the $86K pivot. Higher lows at 85,533 (swing low) and 85,737 keep the London trend intact. RSI(14) sits near 66, and supply is capping at the session high against a firm USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,076 session high opens the path toward the 86,555 prior high from yesterday's NY session
Failure to hold the 85,737 higher low and the London trend line shifts focus to the 85,533 swing low and the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 85,011 Asian low would negate the rebound structure
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the Asian low, capped inside the Asian range.
London extended the rebound from the 85,011 asian low in a higher-low sequence. The mid-London push stalled at 85,996, just shy of the 86,004 asian high, leaving a long upper wick, and price remains inside the Asian range. Firm USD and French debt risk-off keep the 86K pivot capping, with RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,004 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 86,555 prior high from yesterday's NY open
Loss of the 85,533 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain; the 50% level of the london leg fib sits near 85,504
Failure at the 85,011 asian low returns price to yesterday's NY-session lows
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:33 UTC
Intraday range, upside rejected at range top · RSI 57 · price 85,682.64
Asian range 85011–86004 intact; London higher lows capped below the Asian high.
London rallied off the 85011 Asian low but stalled at 85996, just under the 86004 Asian high and the $86K pivot. The last full bar showed a sharp rejection to a 85533 wick low, with a firm USD backdrop. Price is back near 85680, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the London leg, RSI(14) has cooled to ~57 and price holds above EMA20/50.
Support: 85,532.81, 85,503.84, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,004.29, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86004 Asian high breaks the range and opens the 86555 prior high
Loss of the 85533 wick low and the fib 50% at 85504 shifts focus back to the 85011 Asian low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) into the NY session could materially shift this read
Higher low 85,011 vs 84,838, lower highs under 86K; contracting.
London open lifted BTC off the 85,011 Asian low to a 85,956 London high, retracing the overnight slide but stalling under the 86,004 Asian high, the same 86K zone that rejected yesterday's NY spike to 86,554. That Asian low is a higher low against yesterday's 84,838 swing low, with RSI(14) near 63 and a firm USD on record yields as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,004 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 86,554 prior high
Loss of the 85,434 impulse base, between the 50% and 61.8% of the london leg fib, puts the 85,011 Asian low back in play
Break of the higher-low trendline from the 84,838 swing low invalidates the consolidation read
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing asian high · RSI 67 · price 85,921.38
Higher low at 85011 vs 84839; still inside 85011–86004 asian range, lower highs from 86554.
London rallied about 940 dollars off the 85,011 asian low, clearing the breakout bar at 85,434 and stalling just under the asian high at 86,004, which also marks the 86K pivot. RSI(14) is near 67 and price holds above EMA20/50, while the lower-high sequence from yesterday's NY high at 86,554 is still intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,004 asian high breaks the overnight lower-high sequence and opens the 86,554 NY high
Loss of the 85,648 pullback low, then the 85,434 breakout bar, puts the london leg fib's 50–61.8% zone in play
Break below the 85,011 asian low ends the higher-low read and keeps the window in its 84,839–86,554 range
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
08:47 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a broader range · RSI 60 · price 85,848.46
Higher lows from 84,839 vs lower highs from 86,555; testing Asian range top.
The London leg lifted price from the 85,011 Asian low to an 85,893 London high. Price is now holding just under the 86,004 Asian high near the $86K pivot, with only a shallow pullback low at 85,648 and RSI(14) around 60. The range is compressing between a higher-lows line from 84,839 and lower highs from the 86,555 prior high, as a firm USD caps follow-through.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,004 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 86,555 prior high
Loss of the 85,648 pullback low exposes the London leg retracement toward the 85,011 Asian low
A break below the 84,839 prior low ends the higher-lows sequence
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
London open lifted BTC from the 85,011 Asian low to a session high at 85,893. That move broke the descending trendline from yesterday's ISM-driven 86,554 prior high, but the 08:00 UTC bar left a rejection wick and price is easing back toward the 38.2% fib of the London leg at 85,556. Price is still inside the Asian range under the 86,004 Asian high (the $86K pivot), with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR around $163.
What it said to watch
Holding the fib 38.2 at 85,556 keeps the London higher low intact; a break through the 50% at 85,452 puts the 85,011 Asian low back in play
An M15 close above the 86,004 Asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 86,554 prior high
Failure at the 85,011 Asian low would set a lower low and reopen the 84,838 prior low
Re-break back below the descending trendline would mark the London breakout as a false break
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range, London bounce rejected below range top.
London open lifted BTC off the 85,011 asian low, but the 85,893 london high wick was rejected short of the 86,004 asian high, leaving a sequence of descending highs from yesterday's 86,554 ny high (the post-ISM spike that reversed). Price sits mid-range above the 85,401 london base, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 86,004 asian high breaks the descending highs and opens 86,554 ny high
Failure to hold 85,401 london base (near the 50% fib) exposes 85,011 asian low, then 84,838 swing low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
08:05 UTC
Asia downtrend, London-open bounce challenging it · RSI 51 · price 85,475.87
Lower highs and lower lows from 86,004 to 85,011 through Asia; London open printed a higher low at 85,180 and broke the Asia trendline.
Asia stepped lower from the 86,004 Asian high to an 85,011 Asian low just before London open, holding above Monday's 84,838 NY low as a firm USD and risk-off tone weighed. The London-open bounce off an 85,180 higher low broke the Asia trendline and is capped so far at the 85,523 London high, at the 50% retracement of the Asia leg, with the 85,631 lower high (61.8%) next overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,631 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and opens the 86,004 Asian high
Failure to hold the 85,180 higher low reopens the 85,011 Asian low and Monday's 84,838 NY low
Rejection at the 85,523 London high and 50% retracement would leave the Asia trendline break as a false break
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs from 86,555, inside Asian range, testing descending trendline.
Since the rejection of Monday's ISM spike at 86,555 (prices paid 74, USD bid), price has printed lower highs at the 86,004 asian high and the 85,632 lower high, with the Asian session bottoming at 85,011. Early London lifted price off the 85,150 pullback low into the descending trendline and just above the 38.2% level of the asian drop fib (~85,391), with RSI(14) back at 50 and price between EMA20 and EMA50.
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above the descending trendline and the 85,632 lower high would break the lower-high sequence, with the 86,004 asian high next
A move back below the 85,150 pullback low reopens the 85,011 asian low, then the 84,839 24h low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read through USD and yields
07:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 43 · price 85,195.18
Lower-high chain 86004 → 85632 → 85299; early London holding just above the 85011 session low.
Monday's ISM-hour spike to 86555 was rejected outright and the 86K area has capped price since, with USD strength and risk-off weighing. Asia printed lower highs from the 86004 asian high to the 85632 swing high and 85299 minor high, and the 06:00 UTC flush set a session low at 85011. Early London is now stalling just under 85300, RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 85,011.38, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,299.06, 85,631.70, 86,004.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85299 minor high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the Asia sequence; the 85632 swing high sits at the 61.8% of the Asia leg
Failure to hold the 85011 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 84839 monday low
Reclaim of the 86004 asian high invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
07:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY session high · RSI 45 · price 85,250.12
Lower highs at 86554, 86004, 85632; bouncing off the Asian low near 85011.
Lower highs run from the 86,555 NY session high through the 86,004 Asian high to the 85,632 swing high. Price is bouncing off the 85,011 Asian low into the first hour of London, at the 23.6% of the Asia decline fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 45. A firm USD on 10y yields and France debt stress keeps the backdrop heavy.
What it said to watch
Break below the 85,011 Asian low exposes the 84,839 NY low
M15 close above the 85,632 swing high breaks the lower highs sequence; the 61.8% of the Asia decline fib sits just below it
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
Reclaim of the 86,004 Asian high would put price back above the Asian range
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 42 · price 85,151.23
Lower-high/lower-low chain since NY rejection at 86,554; London open testing the lows.
Asia session made lower highs from the 86,004 Asian high to the 85,631 swing high, then set a fresh Asian low at 85,011. London opens just under the 85,263 bounce high with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs overhead. Broad USD strength on French debt contagion is weighing on risk, and the 84,838 NY low from yesterday's post-open selloff is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,011 Asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 84,838 NY low
Recovery through the 85,263 bounce high and then the 85,631 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; the descending trendline sits along these highs
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD tone and this read
A retrace toward the 50–61.8% fib of the 86,004–85,011 drop that fails keeps the lower-high structure intact
Asian lower highs and lower lows from 86004; price below both EMAs.
The Asian drop from the 86004 Asian high set a lower high at 85631 and a session low at 85011. Price is in a shallow bounce into the London open, with RSI(14) near 44 and price under both EMAs. A firm USD and risk-off tone from European debt stress add to the soft backdrop.
Support: 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,004.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85631 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the Asian downtrend read
Failure to hold the 85011 session low exposes yesterday's 84838 ny low
London open is imminent; Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 39 · price 85,144.23
Lower-high / lower-low chain since the 86004 Asian high; price holding just above the 85011 session low.
Late Asia session ahead of London open. Asia has printed lower highs at the 86004 asian high and the 85632 lower high, then flushed to an 85011 session low, extending the slide that began when yesterday's NY spike to 86555 reversed after ISM Services prices paid jumped to 74. Price sits below EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 39, and the 85337 broken low is now overhead.
Support: 85,011.38, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,337.02, 85,631.70, 86,004.29
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85011 session low exposes the 84839 prior low from yesterday's NY session
M15 close back above the 85337 broken low, near the 38.2% retrace of the asian high-to-low move, would stall the lower-low chain
Close above the 85632 lower high breaks the Asian trendline of lower highs; the 86004 asian high is the next reference
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD and risk tone during NY hours
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 85,021.37
Lower highs from 86,004 Asian high; overnight 85,181 low broken.
A ~370-dollar drop late in the Asia session cut through the 85,181 prior low, extending the descending trendline of lower highs from the 86,004 Asian high through the 85,632 lower high. RSI(14) is near 30 as price sits on the 85,000 round number, with yesterday's NY low at 84,839 the next reference, while a firm USD on Eurozone debt stress weighs on risk.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84,839 ny low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close back above the 85,181 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 85,632 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD and this read
Lower highs inside Asian range, pressing toward asia low.
Monday's NY-open spike to the 86555 prior high reversed to an 84839 ny low, and the overnight recovery was rejected at the 86004 asia high as USD stayed bid on Eurozone debt stress. Asia session has since printed a lower high at 85632, with price back under both EMAs, RSI(14) near 42, and drifting toward the 85181 asia low.
Support: 85,181.19, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,631.70, 86,004.29, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85181 asia low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 84839 ny low
Close above the 85632 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and puts the 86004 asia high back in play
ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift this read into the NY session
05:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 44 · price 85,427.92
Lower highs 86004→85632, lows holding at 85181.
Late Asia session has printed lower highs from the 86004 asian high to 85632. The bounce stalled between the 50% and 61.8% of the Asia fib, and price is back below both EMAs, holding above the 85318 swing low and the 85181 asian low. The 24h low at 84839 came from the NY reversal after the 86555 spike, as ISM prices paid at 74 kept the USD firm.
Support: 85,318.00, 85,181.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,632.00, 86,004.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85632 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 86004 asian high back in play
Break of the 85181 asian low exposes the 24h low at 84839
London open in ~1h, then ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift this read
05:33 UTC
Sideways, contracting after ISM sell-off · RSI 56 · price 85,547.79
Lower high 86,004 and higher low 85,181 form a narrowing range.
Yesterday's 14:00 UTC ISM spike to the 86,555 ism high, with prices paid at 74, reversed to an 84,839 prior low. Since then a rejection at the 86,004 asian high near the 86K pivot and a bounce off the 85,181 asian low have left a series of lower highs and higher lows. Late in the Asia session, price sits mid-range near 85,550, above EMA20 and just under EMA50, capped by the 85,632 intraday hi, with a minor higher low at 85,427.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,632 intraday hi reopens the 86,004 asian high and 86K rejection zone
Close above 86,004 breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 86,555 ism high
Loss of the 85,427 higher low exposes the 85,181 asian low. A break there undercuts the higher lows line and points back to the 84,839 prior low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could resolve the compression during NY hours
05:18 UTC
Range-bound, short-term recovery off Asian low · RSI 52 · price 85,560.77
Inside Asian range 85181–86004; micro higher lows since 04:00 UTC, capped at 85632.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open. BTC bounced from the 85181 Asian low and is holding between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the 86004–85181 drop, with a micro higher-low chain since 04:00 UTC. The 05:00 UTC bounce high at 85632 met rejection, keeping price inside the Asian range after Monday's reversal from the 86555 monday high during the ISM hour, when prices paid printed 74.
Support: 85,427.00, 85,318.00, 85,181.00
Resistance: 85,632.00, 86,004.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85632 bounce high and the 61.8% retrace near 85690 opens a retest of the 86004 asian high
Loss of the 85427 higher low breaks the micro chain; the 85318 swing low and then the 85181 asian low come into view
Acceptance above the 86004 asian high reopens the 86555 monday high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
05:07 UTC
Neutral, compressing after Asian sell-off · RSI 48 · price 85,498.84
Lower high at 86,004 under ISM spike high; higher low at 85,181; tight late-Asia coil.
The Asian session was rejected at 86,004, a lower high beneath yesterday's ISM-spike high at 86,555, and dropped to 85,181. Price is now coiling just under the 85,507 micro high, at the 38.2% retracement of the Asian drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 48. A firm USD on European debt stress is the backdrop into London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,507 micro high opens the 85,635 swing high
Failure at the 85,318 swing low exposes the 85,181 Asian low, then the 84,838 prior low
Close above the 86,004 Asian high breaks the lower-high line read
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs off the 86,004 Asian high; 85,181 low holding.
Monday's NY spike to 86,555 was rejected after the ISM prices-paid jump. The Asia session has since faded from the 86,004 Asian high in a run of lower highs. The 03:30 UTC dip found the 85,181 Asian low, and the bounce stalled at the 38.2% retrace and the ema20 near 85,510, with price sitting just above the 85,335 shelf and RSI(14) mid-40s.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,635 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence and puts the 86,004 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 85,335 shelf reopens the 85,181 Asian low
Sustained closes above the ema20 / 38.2% cap near 85,510 shift the read to a recovery leg
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, within 84,839–86,555 range.
Late in the Asia session, BTC has given back most of its overnight recovery against a firm, yield-led USD. A rejection at the 86,004 Asian high, just under the $86K pivot, led to lower lows down to the 85,181 Asian low. Price is now sitting near the 50% retrace of the 84,839–86,004 leg, with RSI(14) near 43, lower highs capped by the 85,635 swing high, and the higher-low line from the 84,839 day low still intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,635 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 86,004 Asian high
Loss of the 85,318 swing low and the 85,181 Asian low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 84,839 day low
86,555 NY high caps the 24h range; a $86K pivot reclaim comes first
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Sideways-to-lower, below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 85,482.86
Asia range 85,181–86,004 inside a lower-high sequence.
Late Asia session: price was rejected at the 86,004 Asia high at 01:00 UTC and sold to an 85,181 Asia low, now sitting mid-range below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40. Yesterday's post-ISM spike to the 86,555 prior high reversed sharply, and the 86,004 lower high keeps a descending line of lower highs intact, against a USD-bid, French-debt risk-off backdrop.
What it said to watch
Close below the 85,181 Asia low, near the 70% level of the recovery fib, exposes the 84,839 prior low
Close above the 86,004 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 86,555 prior high
London open could resolve the Asian range; ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) follow
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia below the 86004 Asian high.
Monday's NY session spiked to the 86555 NY high around the ISM Services release, then reversed to the 84839 NY low as prices paid at 74 and a firm USD weighed. The Asia session recovery was rejected at the 86004 Asian high, and late-Asia trade has printed lower highs down to the 85181 Asian low. Price sits near 85400, only about 27% back into the Asia drop fib, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 85,181.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,635.00, 86,004.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85635 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 85181 Asian low and the rising support line exposes the 84839 NY low
London open is the next test of whether the Asian range holds
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) later today could reprice USD and shift this read
Asia rejection at 86,004, lower highs into 61.8% retrace.
The Asia session was rejected at the 86,000 pivot (asian high 86,004) and has printed lower highs since. Price slid to an asian low of 85,181 and sits near the 61.8% retrace of the 84,839–86,004 overnight recovery, with RSI(14) near 36 and price below both EMAs. USD strength on 2002-high yields and EU debt risk-off remains the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 85,181 breaks rising support and exposes the swing low at 84,839
Reclaim of the lower high at 85,635 neutralises the Asia selloff; asian high 86,004 is the next cap
Prior high 86,555 from the NY spike marks the top of the 24h range
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Recovery stalled, lower high in place · RSI 42 · price 85,408.94
Lower high at 86004, compressing above Asian low.
The Asia session recovery from the 84839 NY low was rejected at the 86004 Asian high, a lower high under the 86555 NY high, and price has retraced about 50–61.8% of that leg. It is now compressing in a tight 85375–85465 band just above the 85318 Asian low and below both EMAs, against a USD bid on 5.3% 10y yields.
Support: 85,318.04, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,634.69, 86,004.29, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
Close below the 85318 Asian low breaks the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 84839 NY low
Reclaim of the 85635 bounce high would put the 86004 Asian high back in play; above that, the lower-high line from the 86555 NY high caps
London open could break the current tight Asian compression
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05 UTC) could reprice Fed-hike odds and shift this read
Lower highs from 86555; price coiling near the base of the 85318–86004 Asian range.
The ISM Services spike to the 86555 ism high reversed into an 84839 swing low. The late-Asia recovery stalled at the 86004 asian high, a lower high under the $86K pivot amid a firm USD. Price has since slipped below EMA20/50 and is coiling on the 85375 micro base, just above the 85318 asian low (near the 61.8% of the asia rally fib), with RSI(14) ~41.
Support: 85,375.00, 85,318.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,635.00, 86,004.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85318 asian low breaks the Asia-session structure and exposes the 84839 swing low
Close back above the 85635 lower high reopens the 86004 asian high, with the lower highs line from the 86555 ism high capping above
Repeated holds at the 85375 micro base keep this a compression rather than a breakdown
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could reprice USD and shift this read
Lower high at 86,004, rising trendline broken, pinned near 50% retrace.
Late in the Asia session, price rejected at the 86,004 asian high and broke the rising trendline off yesterday's 84,839 swing low, dropping to the 85,318 asian low. It now sits near the 50% fib of that recovery with RSI(14) near 41. This extends the failed NY-session ism spike to 86,555, which reversed as ISM prices paid at 74 lifted the USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,318 asian low exposes the fib 61.8 at 85,284, then the 84,839 swing low
Reclaim of the 85,604 prior low returns price to the broken trendline zone; the 86,004 asian high and 86,555 ism spike cap above
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Overnight higher-low chain broken; pressing Asian range lows.
Early Asia pushed above the overnight highs to an Asian high at 86004 and reversed, breaking the rising trendline off the 84839 day low. That printed a session low at 85318, near the 61.8% fib of the recovery, and a lower high at 85635. RSI(14) sits near 39 with price below both EMAs, and yesterday's NY high at 86555 was rejected under the $86K pivot as broad USD strength weighed on risk.
Support: 85,318.04, 85,290.07, 84,838.57
Resistance: 85,634.69, 86,004.29, 86,554.68
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85318 session low exposes the 85290 prior low, then the 84839 day low
A close back above the 85635 lower high reopens the 86004 asian high
Reclaiming the broken rising trendline would negate the breakdown read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) later Tuesday could shift USD and this read
Rejection at 86,004 Asian high; rising trendline broken, dip holding above 61.8% fib.
Early Asia session rejected the 86,004 Asian high just under the $86K pivot and broke the rising trendline from yesterday's 84,839 swing low. The drop stalled at the 85,318 Asian low, near the 61.8% fib, and the bounce capped at 85,634, with price below both EMAs against a firm, risk-off USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,318 Asian low and 61.8% fib exposes the 84,839 swing low
Reclaim of the 85,634 bounce high and the broken rising trendline would restore the higher-low chain toward the 86,004 Asian high
NY high at 86,554 marks the top of the 24h range; only a break of it shifts the range read
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams/Bowman remarks (13:05/14:45 UTC) could shift USD tone and this read
Lower high at 86,004, Asian range broken to the downside.
Asia session rejected the 86,004 asian high, a lower high, at 01:00 UTC. The sell-off broke the 85,637 asian low and the rising trendline off the 84,839 ny low, and price now sits on the 61.8% fib, which lines up with the 85,290 swing low. RSI(14) is 39, so not yet oversold, while broad USD strength and the risk-off macro tape add a headwind.
What it said to watch
A close below the 85,290 swing low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 84,839 ny low
A reclaim of the 85,637 asian low negates the range break; the 86,004 asian high caps above
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift the read via USD and yields
02:05 UTC
Recovery off NY low stalling, short-term pullback · RSI 37 · price 85,499.84
Lower high at 86004 under 86555 NY high; late-NY higher-low chain broken at 85604.
Early in the Asia session, price was rejected at the 86,004 asian high, a lower high beneath the 86,555 ny high spike. It then cut through the 85,604 broken low that had anchored the late-NY grind, printing an asian low at 85,473, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37. The pullback sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 84,839–86,004 recovery, with a firm USD on French debt stress acting as a headwind.
What it said to watch
Holding the 85,473 asian low and the 50% fib at 85,421 keeps the recovery off the ny low intact; a break exposes the 61.8% near 85,284
An M15 close back above the 85,604 broken low reopens the 86,004 asian high
Failure below 85,284 puts the 84,839 ny low back in play
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), then Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45), could reprice USD and shift this read
Higher-low chain from 84,839 broken after rejection at 86,000 Asian high.
Rejection at the 86,000 Asian high led to a break of the rising trendline off Monday's 84,839 NY low in the 01:30 UTC bar. Price is now at the 85,530 Asian low, on the 38.2% fib of the rebound, below the 85,640 broken base. Monday's post-ISM spike to the 86,555 ism high was fully reversed in NY hours, and the firm USD backdrop has capped the recovery since.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85,640 broken base negates the trendline break
Failure to hold the 85,530 asian low exposes the 85,430 swing low at the 50% fib
Loss of 85,430 puts the 84,840 ny low back in focus
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
Higher lows off 84,839 NY low, capped at Asian high.
The ny spike to 86,555 around the ISM release reversed hard as the USD bid resumed, bottoming at the 84,839 ny low. Since then a grind of rising lows has carried price back to the 61.8% NY sell-off fib, with the asian high at 86,004 capping early Asia session. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR(14) is about 148, so this is a slow recovery rather than a squeeze.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,637 asian low breaks the rising lows line; the 85,521 swing low is next
Close above the 86,004 asian high clears the NY sell-off fib and opens the 86,369 london high
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could reset this read
01:18 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY low · RSI 56 · price 85,905.40
HL chain off 84,838 NY low; price at 61.8% fib of post-ISM drop, capped by 86,004 session high.
Rejection from the 86,554 ISM high, as USD demand built, ran into the 84,838 NY low. Since then price has carved steady higher lows through NY hours and into the Asia session. It is now pressing the 61.8% fib near 85,900, just under the 86,004 session high, with RSI(14) mid-range at ~56 and ATR(14) around 145 points.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 86,004 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 86,554 ISM high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 85,603 Asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens the 50% fib and the 84,838 NY low
Rejection at the 61.8% fib would leave the recovery as a corrective bounce inside the post-ISM drop
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) Tuesday could materially shift this read
The ism spike to 86,555 met a sharp rejection, and the drop ran to the 84,839 day low as USD demand on Euro debt stress weighed into NY hours. Since then a higher-low chain has built into early Asia session, with the ny high at 85,942 capping near the 61.8% retrace of that ISM drop and RSI(14) around 56.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,942 ny high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the path to the 86,369 london high, then the 86,555 ism spike
Loss of the 85,604 higher low and the rising trendline ends the recovery sequence, exposing the 85,286 asia low and 84,839 day low
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) Tuesday; hawkish tone could revive the USD bid
Lower highs inside 85,600–85,950 after the higher-low chain off 84,839 lost its rising line.
The NY spike to 86,555 around ISM Services (Prices Paid 74) reversed to an 84,839 low. The higher-low recovery that followed met rejection at the 85,942 swing high late in NY hours. With the rising line off that low broken, early Asia is printing a lower high at 85,849 while price sits just under flat EMAs, holding above the 85,604 swing low, as 5.34% yields keep the USD bid.
What it said to watch
Break of the 85,604 swing low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 retracement at 85,521
Recovery above the 85,942 swing high resets the rising structure, with the 86,369 london high next above
Loss of 85,286 (Monday's asia low, retested during NY) reopens the 84,839 NY low
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) today could materially shift this read
00:33 UTC
Recovering off NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 85,731.59
Higher lows off 84839, capped below 85942 swing high.
The 14:00 UTC ISM Services release drove a brief ISM spike to 86555 above the London high, which reversed into an 84839 NY low as the USD bid built. Price has since ground higher in a higher-low chain through late NY into early Asia. The swing high at 85942 capped the bounce just above the 61.8% fib, and price now sits near the 50% level around 85730, marginally above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 85,604.00, 85,495.00, 84,839.00
Resistance: 85,942.00, 86,000.00, 86,555.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85604 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence, exposing fib 38.2 at 85495
Acceptance above the 85942 swing high and 86000 psych level reopens the 86555 ISM spike high
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift the USD backdrop later today
Higher lows off 84,839 NY low; pullback holding 85,604–85,942 range.
Monday's ISM Services spike to 86,555 cleared the 86,369 london high and failed. The false break ran to 84,839 into late NY as the 74 Prices Paid print and a firm USD weighed. The after-hours recovery stalled at the 85,942 recovery hi below 86,000 psych, and early Asia is consolidating just above the 85,604 swing low with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
What it said to watch
Break below the 85,604 swing low exposes the 38.2 fib of the recovery at 85,521, then the 85,286 asia low
M15 close above the 85,942 recovery hi brings 86,000 psych and the 86,369 london high back into view
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Williams/Bowman Fedspeak later Tuesday are the next USD catalysts that could shift this read
00:05 UTC
Recovery from NY low stalling, short-term pullback · RSI 49 · price 85,657.67
Higher lows off 84,839 NY low; rejection at 85,942 late-NY high near 61.8% fib.
The NY spike to 86,555 around the ISM Services release reversed sharply as prices paid at 74 revived inflation concerns. The drop broke Monday's Asian low and bottomed at the 84,839 NY low. The after-hours recovery was rejected at the 85,942 late-NY high near the 61.8% fib. Price now sits just under the 50% fib at 85,697 and both EMAs as the new Asia session opens, RSI(14) near 49.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 85,604 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 85,494 and puts the 84,839 NY low back in focus
M15 close above the 50% fib at 85,697 and the 85,942 late-NY high reopens the 86,369 London high
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could shift the read, with FOMC Minutes on Wed 18:00 UTC the larger risk
Broad USD strength on Eurozone debt stress, with EUR/USD near 1.1150, remains a cap on risk appetite