Lower highs 83,692/83,669/83,432 vs higher lows 82,764/83,088/83,147.
BTC slid from the Asia-session drop off 85,300 to an 82,764 session low in early NY. The bounce after the hawkish FOMC minutes stalled at the 83,669 lower high. Price is now pinned just under the 38.2% fib of the 84,384–82,764 decline (~83,383), with rising support from the session low near 83,180.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,147 swing low breaks rising support and exposes the 83,088 pre-fomc low, then the 82,764 session low
Close above the 83,432 minor high and 83,669 lower high ends the lower-high sequence; 50% fib ~83,574 sits in between
Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via yields and USD
23:33 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in compression · RSI 44 · price 83,393.16
Lower highs vs higher lows since NY low.
Since the 82,764 day low in NY hours, BTC has compressed between lower highs at 83,692/83,669 and higher lows at the 83,088 ny low and 83,147. Hawkish FOMC minutes drew only a brief dip as yields eased. Early in the Asia session price sits at the 38.2% fib of the 84,384–82,764 leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,669 lower high breaks the compression; the fib 50% at 83,574 sits first, with the 84,384 swing high beyond
Loss of the 83,147 higher low and the 83,088 ny low reopens the 82,764 day low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via USD and yields
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a range · RSI 39 · price 83,243.33
Lower highs at 83,692 and 83,669 above higher lows at 83,088 and 83,147; compressing.
An early Asia flush from 85,300 set the tone, and London and NY extended it to the 82,764 day low. The bounce after the hawkish FOMC minutes stalled at the 83,669 fomc high, and price has slipped back to the 83,147–83,151 double low. That area sits between the 50% and 61.8% of the rebound fib, with higher lows still intact and RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 83,147 double low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 83,088 swing low, then the 82,764 day low
A recovery above the 83,344 minor high puts the 83,669 fomc high back in focus as the cap of the range
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
22:48 UTC
Down from 85.5K, now basing sideways · RSI 38 · price 83,266.30
Contracting range: higher lows under a flat range top.
The Asia sell-off from 85,500 bottomed at the 82,764 session low around the NY open. Since then price has compressed beneath the 83,690 range top, with a higher low at 83,150 above the 83,087 swing low, as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields capped the bounce. Late in the NY session it sits at the 50% of the rebound fib, just under the 83,345 local high, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,345 local high reopens a test of the 83,690 range top and its lower highs
Loss of the 83,150 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 83,087 swing low near the 61.8% rebound fib
Failure to hold 83,087 puts the 82,764 session low back in play
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read once Asia session hands over
22:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, now coiling off the day low · RSI 44 · price 83,308.26
Lower highs at 83,692/83,669 against higher lows at 83,087/83,151 after the NY-hours low.
BTC bled from the 84,384 asia high to an 82,764 day low early in NY. The rebound stalled just under the 61.8% of the London selloff fib, and the bounce after the FOMC Minutes capped at 83,669, a lower high, with the USD firm on yields. Price is now coiling between that lower high and higher lows at 83,087 and the 83,151 swing low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 44 and early Asia session ranges thin.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,669 lower high breaks the coil and puts the 84,384 asia high back in view
Loss of the 83,151 swing low exposes the 83,000 round number and the 82,764 day low
Thursday's Waller remarks (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into a range · RSI 40 · price 83,252.32
Lower highs from the Asia bounce; 83090–83690 range since the NY session low.
An Asia session flush from 85300 to 83616 and a London grind lower ended at an 82764 session low during NY hours. Since then price has ranged between 83090 and 83690, holding the range base after the hawkish FOMC Minutes and rejecting twice at the range top. A late-NY drop through the 83405 shelf has price near the middle of the range at 83250, above the 83151 swing low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,151.43, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,405.00, 83,690.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83090 range base reopens the 82764 session low
A close back above the 83405 shelf puts the 83690 range top back in play; a break there ends the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 83151 swing low confirms a lower-low within the range
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Fib 50% of the session low bounce sits near 83228, now being tested
22:05 UTC
Downtrend, ranging off the day low · RSI 40 · price 83,195.38
Lower high at 83669 under 83692; price slipped back through the 83400 shelf toward the rebound's 50–61.8% zone.
BTC fell from 85300 to 83616 in the Asia session, then extended through the Asian low to an 82764 day low in NY hours as a firm USD and hawkish FOMC Minutes weighed. The rebound made a lower high at 83669 after the Minutes and broke the 83400 shelf late in NY. Price now sits in the 50–61.8% zone of the rebound fib, just above the 83087 swing low.
Support: 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,400.00, 83,668.86
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83087 swing low reopens the 82764 day low
Reclaiming the 83400 shelf puts the 83669 lower high back in play
Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 83,690 and 83,670 after the 82,764 NY low, price back at the base of the post-Minutes range.
An early-Asia flush from 85,300 to 83,600 set the tone, and the NY-morning low at 82,764 drew a bounce that met rejection at the 83,690 range top, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 84,384–82,764 leg. Post-FOMC Minutes chop held 83,090–83,670, but price slipped back under the ema20 after NY close to 83,250 with RSI near 41, as the USD bid kept risk appetite capped.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,087 swing low confirms a lower-low and reopens the 82,764 day low
M15 close back above the ema20 near 83,420 returns price to the middle of the range
Close above the 83,690 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,384 swing high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 48 · price 83,384.17
Lower highs from 85600 into an 82764 low; higher low at 83087 and a flat 83690 range top since.
An Asia-session flush from 85300 and a steady grind lower through London-NY bottomed at the 82764 day low. Late-NY trade has since held an 83090–83690 range, and the FOMC Minutes bar lifted price off the range low as yields faded after the release. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of the 84384–82764 drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,090.00, 82,764.00
Resistance: 83,690.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83690 range top and the 61.8% fib (~83765) opens the path to the 84000 round number
Loss of the higher-low line and the 83090 range low re-exposes the 82764 day low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Lower highs into the NY low, then higher lows inside an 83090–83690 range.
An Asia-session liquidation from 85300 to 83616 set the tone, and a lower-high grind through London ended at an 82764 session low in the first hour of NY. The FOMC Minutes bounce stalled under the 83690 range top. Price now sits just below EMA20/50, testing the higher-low line near the 38.2% fib of the 84384–82764 drop.
Support: 83,347.21, 82,763.85
Resistance: 84,384.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83690 range top opens the 61.8% fib near 83765, with the 84384 lower high beyond
Loss of the 83347 higher low and the higher-low line exposes the 83087 pre-FOMC low
Break of the 82764 session low resumes the lower-high, lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
21:09 UTC
Downtrend from 85.5K, basing above the NY low · RSI 56 · price 83,491.05
Higher low at 83088 off the 82764 NY low; range 83088–83692 capped by equal highs.
The Asia-session flush from 85.3K and the London grind lower ended with an 82764 NY low. After the FOMC Minutes the higher low at 83088 held as yields faded, and price is now stalling between the 38.2–50% fib of the 84384–82764 leg, with equal highs forming a range top at 83692. The late-NY swing low at 83379 sits on the rising higher-low line.
Support: 83,379.00, 83,088.00, 82,764.00
Resistance: 83,692.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83692 range top opens the 61.8% fib near 83765 and then the 84000 psych level
Loss of the 83379 swing low and the higher-low line puts 83088 back in play; a break there exposes the 82764 NY low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 82,764; compressing 83,350–83,690.
An Asia-session drop took BTC from 85,300 to 83,616, and the slide extended to an 82,764 session low during NY hours. The bounce after the FOMC minutes stalled near the fib 61.8% of the 84,384–82,764 leg. Price is now holding a rising trendline of higher lows inside 83,350–83,690, with the latest rejection at the range top; RSI(14) is around 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 range top opens the 84,000 round number
Loss of the 83,347 swing low exposes the 83,088 higher low and the rising trendline
Break of the 82,764 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read
20:33 UTC
Recovering within a broader intraday downtrend · RSI 56 · price 83,621.91
Higher lows since the NY-open low, now pressing the 83,692 swing high.
Since the 82,764 day low around the NY open, BTC has built higher lows at the 83,088 swing low and the 83,347 higher low. The post-FOMC-minutes yield fade lifted price late in NY hours into a retest of the 83,692 swing high, just above the 50% fib of the 84,384–82,764 drop, with RSI(14) ~56 and ATR ~$170.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 61.8 at 83,765 and the 83,974 prior high sit above
Loss of the 83,347 higher low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 83,088 swing low back in play; below that, the 82,764 day low
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Higher lows since 82,764 NY low; testing Asia low from below.
BTC has printed higher lows at 83,087 and 83,347 since the 82,764 NY-open low, helped by the post-FOMC-minutes reversal in yields that took some heat out of USD. Late in the NY session price is retesting the broken Asia low at 83,616 from below, near the 50% retracement of the 84,384–82,764 decline, with the 83,692 swing high capping the rebound and RSI(14) at 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 swing high clears the rebound cap and brings the 83,765 fib 61.8 into play
Rejection at the 83,616 Asia low keeps the retest of broken support intact
Break below the 83,347 higher low snaps the higher-lows line and exposes the 83,087 swing low, then the 82,764 ny low
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read into London
Lower highs from 85,600; day low 82,764, higher low at 83,088, late-NY compression.
BTC has bled from 85,600 since the 01:45 UTC flush and printed the day low at 82,764 early in NY. A higher low at 83,088 held into the 18:00 UTC FOMC minutes, which drew a bounce as yields reversed. Late NY price is compressing under the local high at 83,564, near the 50% retracement of the drop from the asia high, with RSI(14) neutral at 53, above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,564 local high exposes the 83,692 swing high and the 61.8% drop fib near 83,765
Loss of the 83,347 minor low and the higher low line puts 83,088 back in play; a break there reopens the 82,764 day low
Thu Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
19:48 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off the day low · RSI 49 · price 83,482.06
Lower-high sequence intact; higher low at 83,088 and a tight range forming below the 83,692 swing high.
The Asia-session flush from 85.6K extended to an 82,764 day low early in NY against a firm-USD, risk-off backdrop. The 83,088 higher low held into the FOMC Minutes, and late in NY price is coiling between the 83,350 minor low and the 83,565 minor high. That range sits near the 50% retrace and below the 83,692 swing high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,000 round number
Failure to hold the 83,088 higher low puts the 82,764 day low back in play
Range read holds while price stays inside the 83,350 minor low to 83,565 minor high band
Waller Thu 08:30 UTC and further USD/yield strength (10y near 5.35%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 82764 under a 83692 lower high; coiling near 50% retrace.
An Asia-session flush from 85300 to 83616 started the slide, and London extended it into an 82764 session low at the NY open amid USD strength and EU-debt risk-off. Since then BTC has printed higher lows at 82828 and 83087, the latter holding into the FOMC Minutes. Price is now coiling just under the 83564 local high, near the 50% retrace of the 84384–82764 leg, with EMA50 marginally overhead.
Support: 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,563.97, 83,691.83, 84,384.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83692 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84384 asia high
Loss of the 83087 higher low breaks the higher-low line and returns focus to the 82764 session low
Repeated failure at the 83564 local high keeps the 50% retrace acting as a cap
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) is the next scheduled USD risk; the overnight Asia session has no scheduled events
19:18 UTC
Downtrend, compressing off the NY low · RSI 51 · price 83,461.09
Lower highs and a higher low, tightening range above the session low.
The Asia-session flush from 85,600 extended through London into a 82,764 session low early in NY, in line with the risk-off, firm-USD backdrop. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at 83,692 and 83,546 and a higher low at 83,087. The bounce on the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes stalled at that lower high, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,000 psych level
Loss of the 83,087 higher low resumes the downtrend toward the 82,764 session low
Another rejection at the 83,546 lower high keeps the compression intact
Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs from 85.6K; higher low at 83,087 after 82,764 low.
The Asia-session flush from 85.3K at 01:45 UTC extended through London and NY to an 82,764 session low as the USD was bid on 5.35% 10y yields. Since then the session has printed a higher low at 83,087 and the FOMC Minutes bar at 18:00 UTC added ~200. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 84,384–82,764 leg, capped below the 83,692 swing high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 61.8% fib near 83,765, then the 84,384 rebound high
Loss of the 83,087 higher low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 82,764 session low
Delayed FOMC Minutes repricing in USD and yields could shift this read during the NY session
Lower highs from 83,692 against higher lows from 82,764, coiling near 83,400.
An early-Asia liquidation out of the 85,300–85,600 range started a grind lower that ran through the NY session to a session low at 82,764, alongside a firm USD and 24-year-high yields. Since then, higher lows at 82,828 and 83,087 against lower highs at the 83,692 swing high and the 83,488 minutes high have price coiling near 83,400, with the FOMC Minutes bar adding only a modest lift.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,488 minutes high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83,692 swing high in play
Acceptance above 83,692 swing high brings the 84,384 Asia high back into view
Failure to hold the 83,087 higher low exposes the 82,764 session low
Further FOMC Minutes digestion, then Waller Thu 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, could shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs since Asia; post-NY range 82764–83692 with a higher low.
BTC has printed lower highs since the Asia-session flush from 85.3K, and the NY-open sweep set the day low at 82764 against a bid USD and risk-off tape. The FOMC Minutes bar lifted price off the 83087 higher low to a 83488 fomc high, holding near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg fib and below the 83692 lower high.
Support: 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,488.06, 83,691.83
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83692 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 50–61.8% zone of the London-NY leg fib in play
Failure to hold the 83087 higher low reopens the 82764 day low
Rejection at the 83488 fomc high keeps the range read intact
Fed's Waller Thu 08:30 UTC could shift the post-Minutes read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing in NY session · RSI 55 · price 83,409.14
Lower highs from 84384; NY range 82764–83692 with a higher low at 83087.
A sharp Asia-session flush from 85300 to 83616 opened the day, and London and early NY extended the lower-high sequence into an 82764 session low as a bid USD and 24-year-high yields weighed on risk. Price is now lifting off an 83087 higher low after the 18:00 UTC FOMC Minutes, sitting near the 38.2% retracement of the selloff fib with the 83692 NY high capping.
Support: 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,691.83
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes (18:00 UTC) just released. A hawkish read with yields extending could reverse the post-release bar's lift to 83488.
M15 close above the 83692 NY high breaks the NY range and puts the 83973 lower high and the 61.8% selloff fib (~83765) in view.
Failure to hold the 83087 higher low reopens the 82764 session low and resumes the downtrend structure.
Lower highs intact; coiling 83,087–83,692 after 82,764 low.
The early Asia-session flush to 83,616 capped price at the 84,384 asian high. London and NY then printed a chain of lower highs down to the 82,764 session low, and the late bounce was rejected at 83,692, a lower high near the 61.8% fib. Price is now coiling above the 83,087 swing low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 as FOMC Minutes land into a firm USD and risk-off tape.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 83,087 swing low reopens the 82,764 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, releasing in the current bar, could materially shift this read
Only a reclaim of the 84,384 asian high would neutralise the post-Asia selloff structure
Lower highs since Asia-session drop; NY bounce rejected below descending trendline.
Lower-high chain since the Asia-session drop from 85,300. NY extended it to an 82,764 day low, then the bounce stalled at the 83,692 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib and under the descending trendline. A fresh lower high at 83,613 has price back near 83,160 below both EMAs, with the USD bid on 5.35% 10y yields weighing on high-beta risk.
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 83,692 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 83,000 round number exposes the 82,764 day low; a break there extends the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia-session drop. NY bounce off the 82,764 day low capped at 83,692 and now retracing about half of it..
BTC dropped from 85,300 to 83,616 in the Asia session, and the bounce stalled at the 84,384 asia high. London and NY then printed lower lows to an 82,764 day low as the USD bid on 24-year-high yields weighed on risk. The NY rebound saw rejection at the 83,692 swing high, and price now sits near the 50% bounce fib at 83,250, back below EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC land within the next few bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 83,692 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,384 asia high
Failure to hold the 83,000 round number and the 61.8% bounce fib near 83,118 puts the 82,764 day low back in play
A break below the 82,764 day low extends the lower-low chain
17:18 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off day low · RSI 57 · price 83,516.03
Lower highs since Asia; higher low at 82,828 and trendline break during NY hours.
An Asia-session flush from 85,300 to 83,616 set the tone. London then ground out lower highs, and the NY open swept to an 82,764 day low against a broadly bid USD. A higher low at 82,828 completed a small double bottom, and the bounce broke the descending trendline before stalling at the 83,692 bounce high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib. Price is holding above the 83,360 swing low heading into FOMC Minutes.
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read; USD strength on 5.35% 10y yields is the backdrop
Break below the 83,360 swing low puts the 82,828 higher low and 82,764 day low back in play
M15 close above the 83,692 bounce high and the 61.8% fib opens the 84,000 round number, then the 84,384 prior high
Return below the descending trendline (~83,200) negates the breakout and the double bottom read
Lower highs since the Asia dump; NY bounce from 82,764 capped below 61.8% retrace.
An Asia-session drop from 85,300 to 83,616 set the tone. London and early NY extended the lower-high chain to an 82,764 swing low, then the NY bounce met rejection at the 83,692 bounce high, short of the 61.8% retracement of the drop. Price is now holding the 38.2% near 83,380, with USD bid on the yield rout into FOMC Minutes.
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
Close above the 83,692 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,000 psych level
Loss of the 83,000 psych level exposes the 82,764 swing low; a break there resumes the downtrend
An Asia-session flush from 85,300 to 83,616 started a lower-high grind through London into an 82,764 session low during NY hours. A double bottom with the 82,828 higher low lifted price, but the bounce met rejection at 83,692, near the 61.8% of the decline fib. That leaves RSI(14) neutral at 54 ahead of FOMC Minutes, with a firm USD bid from the bond rout as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,692 rejection high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83,973 lower high and 84,384 rebound high in view
Loss of the ema20 near 83,355 and the 82,828 higher low reopens the 82,764 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; ATR near 270 points
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce underway · RSI 57 · price 83,596.94
Lower highs from 84,384; double bottom at 82,764/82,828 now testing 50% retrace.
Asia session liquidation took BTC from 85,300 to 83,616. London then ground lower, and the NY open flushed to the 82,764 ny low as the USD bid and 5.35% 10y yields weighed on risk. A higher low at 82,828 completed a small double bottom; the break of the 83,270 neckline carried price to an 83,657 bounce high, now stalling at the 50% retrace with EMA50 overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,765 61.8% fib reopens 84,000 round number and the 84,384 lower-high
Failure back below the 83,450 london low puts the 83,270 neckline and 82,764 ny low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
16:18 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 53 · price 83,546.99
Lower highs from 84,384 Asia high; falling trendline broken, higher low at 82,828.
BTC dropped from the 85,500 shelf in the Asia session and extended to the 82,764 NY low in the first hour of NY, as a bid USD, rising yields and risk-off on the French debt crisis weighed on high-beta assets. The bounce off a higher low at 82,828 broke the falling trendline and is now pressing the 83,616–83,637 asian low and swing high, just above the 50% fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,637 swing high reclaims the asian low; a close above the 83,973 london high opens the path to the 84,384 asia high
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 83,383, then the 82,828 higher low, puts the 82,764 ny low back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through London into an 82,764 low; higher low at 82,828 and neckline break in NY.
The Asia-session flush to 83,616 extended through London in a lower-high sequence from the 84,384 swing high, reaching an 82,764 session low early in the NY session against a risk-off, USD-bid backdrop. A higher low at 82,828 and breaks of the London downtrend line and the 83,308 neckline have lifted price into the 38.2–50% fib retracement of the London selloff, just under the 83,616 Asian low, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
What it said to watch
Rejection below the 83,616 asian low keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close above the 83,782 lower high breaks the London downtrend structure
Loss of the 83,308 neckline and the 82,828 higher low reopens the 82,764 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia selloff; tentative double bottom at the NY low.
An Asia-session flush took BTC from 85,300 to 83,616. London and NY then printed lower highs into a NY-open extension to the 82,764 session low, with the bid USD and risk-off tone weighing. The 82,828 retest held and price is back at 83,350, pressing the descending trendline, the 38.2% fib and ema20, just under the 83,404 neckline.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,404 neckline confirms the double bottom and clears the descending trendline; 83,780 lower high and 83,973 swing high sit above
Loss of the 83,080 swing pivot reopens the 82,764 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 84384; 82830–83310 range after the NY low.
Asia-session flush to 83616 was followed by a London and early-NY lower-high chain along the descending trendline, with the session low at 82764 printed in the first hour of NY as a bid USD and risk-off tone weighed. Since then BTC has held a tight range between the 82828 swing low and the 83308 bounce high, with the 83000 round number in the middle, RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,828.00, 82,764.00
Resistance: 83,308.00, 83,383.00, 83,616.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83308 bounce high and the fib 38.2 at 83383, near the lower-high trendline, would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 83000 round number and the 82828 swing low puts the 82764 session low back in play
Former asia low at 83616 sits as overhead resistance if the bounce extends
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight NY compression above 82764.
Price has made lower highs and lower lows since the 84384 early-London high. It broke the 83616 Asian low during London and printed an 82764 NY low just after NY open, with a bid USD on 24-year-high yields weighing on risk. Price is now compressing around the 83000 round number above an 82828 higher low, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,828.00, 82,764.00
Resistance: 83,404.00, 83,616.00
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 83404 NY open high, near the 38.2% fib of the 84384–82764 leg, breaks the lower-high sequence; the 83616 Asian low sits above that
Loss of the 82828 higher low and the 82764 NY low resumes the lower-low chain
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
BTC has printed a lower-highs chain since the 84,384 Asian high. London broke the 83,616 Asian low, and early NY extended to an 82,764 session low before a bounce stalled at 83,404. Price is back at 82,950 with RSI(14) near 26, under a firm USD into FOMC Minutes.
What it said to watch
Break below the 82,764 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82,000 round number
M15 close above the 83,404 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 83,616 Asian low, back inside the Asian range, shifts the structure toward range
Retracement of the drop from the Asian high has stayed shallow so far
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the Asia breakdown; NY open printed a new session low.
Price has made steady lower highs under a descending trendline from the 84384 Asia-session bounce. The first hour of NY extended the move to an 82764 ny low before a bounce, and price is now holding just above the 83000 round number with RSI(14) near 29. Risk-off from France's debt crisis and a firm USD into FOMC Minutes frame the drift lower.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,308.26, 83,472.07, 83,615.92
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 83000 round number and a break of the 82764 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 83308 bounce high is the first break of the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 83472 london low, near the lower-high trendline, invalidates the downtrend read; the asia low at 83616 sits just above the fib 50%
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:33 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NY open · RSI 26 · price 83,106.48
Lower highs and lower lows since the 84,384 Asia-session high; bounce off the 82,764 ny low stalling.
Price has printed lower highs under a falling trendline since the 84,384 Asia-session high. London broke the 83,616 asian low, and the NY open extended to an 82,764 ny low before the bounce high capped at 83,308. The risk-off, firm-USD backdrop from the French debt crisis is weighing into today's FOMC Minutes, with RSI(14) near 26 and price below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,451 london low and the falling trendline (~83,530) breaks the lower-high sequence
50% decline fib near 83,574 sits just under the 83,616 asian low, so that zone is the upper test of any bounce
A close back above the 83,308 bounce high is the first sign the NY dip is being absorbed
Failure to hold the 83,000 psych level exposes the 82,764 ny low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 84384; Asian low broken, new session low at 82764.
A steady lower-high chain from the 84384 swing high carried London through the Asian session low at 83616. The NY open extended the slide to a sweep of 82764, the session low, and the rebound has so far been capped near the 83404 rebound high (fib 38.2% of the 84384–82764 leg), with RSI(14) near 29. The risk-off, firm-USD backdrop from the French debt crisis is the driver into FOMC Minutes.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,404.15, 83,615.92, 84,384.07
What it said to watch
Hold below the 83404 rebound high keeps the bounce corrective inside the 84384–82764 fib
M15 close back above 83616 reclaims the asia low and the broken Asian range floor
Close above the lower-high trendline (~83550) from the 84384 swing high breaks the descending sequence
Failure at the 83000 round number reopens the 82764 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain under descending trendline; NY open sweep to new low.
BTC has printed lower highs from the 84384 London high along a descending trendline. The Asian low at 83616 gave way mid-London, and the bar after the NY open flushed to a session low at 82764 before partly recovering to 83130. RSI(14) sits near 32 against a firm-USD, risk-off backdrop into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,763.85
Resistance: 83,481.06, 83,615.92
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83616 asian low and the descending trendline (~83560) breaks the lower-high chain
Rejection near the 83481 ny open high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 83000 round number and the 82764 session low confirms a further lower-low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, fresh session low at NY open.
London broke below the 83,616 asian low, and the first hour of NY extended the slide to a session low at 83,080 as a firmer USD on 10y yields back above 5.30% weighed. Every bounce since the 84,384 asian high has been capped by the lower-high trendline, and the 83,450 prior low now sits overhead. RSI(14) is near 24, stretched but not extreme.
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 83,616 asian low and the lower-high trendline invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 83,000 round number below the session low extends the lower-low chain
Rejection at the 83,450 prior low keeps the 38.2% fib retracement (~83,580) out of reach
Lower highs and lower lows since 84384 swing high.
The lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 84384 swing high is intact. London pushed below the Asia low at 83616, and the first hour of NY printed a fresh session low at 83285 as broad USD firmness weighed. Price is capped by the falling-highs trendline and the 83561 lower high, with RSI(14) near 32 but not yet at an extreme.
Support: 83,285.00, 83,000.00
Resistance: 83,561.00, 83,616.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83285 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 83000 round number
Recovery above the 83616 asia low and the falling-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
84000 round number caps any rebound toward the 50% fib of the 84384–83285 leg
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the 84384 asia high, at the session low into NY open.
London broke below the 83616 asia low and extended a lower-high, lower-low chain from 84384. Price is pinned near the 83346 session low into the NY open, with the 83738 lower high capping and RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold. Firm USD and 10y yields back above 5.30% frame the pressure ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 83,346.21, 83,000.00
Resistance: 83,615.92, 83,737.78
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83738 lower high, and through the lower-high trendline, breaks the LH/LL chain. The 83973 swing high sits next.
Loss of the 83346 session low exposes the 83000 round number.
A reclaim of the 83616 asia low would turn the London break into a false break. That level sits near the 38.2% retracement of the 84384–83346 fib leg down.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower-high chain under trendline, Asia low broken.
The Asia session flush from 85,300 to the 83,616 asia low set the tone. The rebound stalled at the 84,384 rebound high, and London has since printed a chain of lower highs under the trendline, breaking the asia low into an 83,429 session low near the London-NY transition. RSI(14) sits near 35, not yet oversold, with a firm USD and 10y yields back above 5.30% weighing ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asia low at 83,616 would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 83,738 lower high and the trendline invalidates the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 83,429 session low extends the downtrend toward the 83,000 round number
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain under falling trendline; Asian low broken.
An Asia-session flush from 85300 printed the asian low at 83616. The 84384 swing high capped the bounce, and London has since carved a lower-high chain under a falling trendline, with the London-NY transition now pushing through the asian low to a fresh session low at 83451. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme, against a firm USD into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 83,451.10, 83,000.00
Resistance: 83,615.92, 84,384.07
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83616 asian low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 83451 session low exposes the 83000 round number
Close above the falling trendline and the 83973 lower high (near the 50% of the london leg fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC; a hawkish read plus USD strength could extend this leg
12:18 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 35 · price 83,663.86
Lower highs above the swept asian low.
An Asia-session flush from 85,300 to the 83,616 asian low set the tone. The bounce stalled at the 84,384 rebound high, and London faded back to sweep the asian low at 83,472 before closing back above it. Price is now compressing in lower highs just above the 83,556 swing low into the London-NY transition, with a firm USD backdrop and RSI(14) near 35.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,973 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,384 rebound high
Failure to hold the 83,472 sweep low confirms a fresh lower-low below the asian low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
12:05 UTC
Downtrend, grinding near lows · RSI 36 · price 83,691.83
Lower highs since London open, holding above session low.
An Asia-session flush from 85300 set the Asian low at 83616. London has printed lower highs from 84316, swept to a session low of 83472 at 10:00 UTC, and stalled at 83973, between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg. Price is pinned at the Asian low with RSI(14) near 36, as a firmer USD on rebounding yields weighs into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 83,615.92, 83,555.98, 83,472.07
Resistance: 84,316.15
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83973 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 84316 london high undoes the London downtrend read
Failure to hold the 83556 swing low and the 83472 session low extends the lower-low chain
NY open plus the 10y auction and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 84384; Asian low under retest after London sweep.
After the early-Asia slide from 85300 to the 83616 Asian low, BTC has printed a lower-high chain from the 84384 swing high. London swept below the Asian low to an 83472 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 83973 bounce high near the 50-61.8% fib. Price is back testing the Asian low with RSI(14) near 34, against a firm USD into FOMC Minutes.
Support: 83,616.00, 83,472.00
Resistance: 83,852.00, 83,973.00, 84,384.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83472 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 83852 lower high and the lower highs trendline challenges the London downswing; 83973 bounce high is the next cap
Recovery through the 84384 swing high would void the lower-high read
NY open and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 84,384 rebound high, retesting crash low.
The ~1,700-point Asia-session drop to the 83,616 crash low bounced only to the 84,384 rebound high before London printed a lower-high chain and a new session low at 83,472. Price is now back on the crash low, capped by the 83,973 lower high, with RSI(14) near 33 and the broad USD bid on Eurozone debt stress as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,973 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 61.8% of the London selloff (~84,036) in view
Failure to hold the 83,616 crash low and the 83,472 session low extends the lower-low structure
Reclaim of the 84,384 rebound high invalidates the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~6.5h) and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
11:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 83,827.68
Asia flush, capped bounce, London lower-high chain with a reclaimed sweep low.
The 01:45 UTC Asia flush from 85,300 stalled at the 84,384 asia high. London has since built lower highs from the 84,203 london high, with a 10:00 UTC sweep of the 83,616 asia low to an 83,472 session low that was reclaimed. Late in London, price sits at the 38.2% retrace of that leg, under the trendline and rejected at the 83,973 lower high, RSI(14) near 34 against a firm USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,973 lower high and trendline breaks the London lower-high chain; 84,203 london high and 84,384 asia high sit above
Loss of the 83,672 swing low and the 83,616 asia low reopens the 83,472 session low
NY open in the next 1–2h typically expands the range; ATR(14) near $170 a bar
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC plus the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain under descending trendline after Asian-low false break.
An Asia-session flush from 85,300 to the 83,616 Asian low set the tone. London has extended a lower-high chain, briefly breaking the Asian low to 83,472 before closing back above it. Price is now capped at the descending trendline near 83,875 with RSI(14) near 36, as a firm USD on Euro-debt stress weighs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 83,974 swing high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 84,316 london high and 84,384 asian high next
Loss of the 83,673 swing low reopens the 83,616 asian low and the 83,472 session low
NY open in ~2.5h, then FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; a USD bid on hawkish Minutes would add to the headwind
10:48 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 83,711.81
Lower-high chain from 84384; asia low swept, price back near lows.
Asia-session flush from 85300 to the 83616 asia low set the range. London has carved lower highs off the 84384 asia high, swept the asia low to 83472 (london low) and recovered, but the bounce stalled at the 83974 lower high and price sits back at 83710 under the falling trendline. Firm USD on Euro-debt risk-off is the backdrop.
Support: 83,616.00, 83,472.00
Resistance: 83,974.00, 84,384.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83974 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the London lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 83472 london low confirms the sweep failed and extends the lower-low sequence
Retracement into the 50–61.8% zone of the london leg (83930–84040) is where prior supply sits
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs since Asia; sweep below Asia low reclaimed.
BTC slid through the London session after the Asia bounce stalled at the 84,384 asia high, printing lower highs at 84,306 and 84,203. The 10:00 UTC bar swept the 83,616 asia low to a 83,472 sweep low and closed back near 83,870, leaving price just under the 84k psych level as a firm USD bid into FOMC Minutes caps the bounce.
What it said to watch
A close back below the 83,472 sweep low resumes the lower-low sequence
Holding above the 83,616 asia low keeps the sweep-and-reclaim in play
A reclaim of the 84k psych level and the lower-highs trendline shifts the read toward a range
The 84,306 lower high and 84,384 asia high cap the current bounce structure
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
10:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 32 · price 83,892.61
Asian breakdown leg, London false break below asian low.
An Asia-session flush around 01:45 UTC broke the 85300 overnight floor to the 83616 asian low. London has printed lower highs from the 84384 asian high and briefly undercut the asian low to an 83472 london low before closing back above it, leaving a false break with RSI(14) near 32 as the USD firms on yields back above 5.30%.
Support: 83,616.00, 83,472.00
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,384.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 83616 asian low negates the false break and exposes the 83472 london low
Reclaim of 84000 psych and the lower-highs trendline puts the 84384 asian high back in view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs and lower lows after the Asia range break; London pressing the Asia low.
The Asia session break of the 85,300 range floor ran to an 83,616 Asia low. The recovery stalled at the 84,384 bounce high, and mid-London has since printed lower highs, giving up the 84,000 broken shelf and setting a 83,691 session low with RSI(14) near 27. Firm USD and higher yields into the FOMC Minutes match the heavy tape.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 83,616 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 84,000 broken shelf and the lower highs line would neutralise the London slide; the 84,384 bounce high sits above
Only a return above the 85,300 range floor would undo the Asia breakdown
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 8h out during NY hours, could materially shift this read
09:48 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 83,868.64
Lower highs from 84384 asian high, London low just above the asian low.
BTC broke from the 85300–85750 overnight range in the Asia session and fell to the 83616 asian low. The rebound stalled at the 84384 asian high, and London has printed a lower high at 84203 and a london low at 83691 as the firm-USD, risk-off backdrop weighs. Price is pinned under the 84000 round number with RSI(14) near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 83,690.83, 83,615.92
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,203.27, 84,384.07
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83616 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 84000 round number and the 84203 lower high breaks the London sequence of lower highs
Close above the 84384 asian high invalidates the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes and the US 10y auction at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs since 84,384, testing below the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rebound.
A sharp Asia-session flush from 85,300 to the 83,616 asian low came against a firm USD bid. The rebound stalled at the 84,384 swing high ahead of London open, and London has since printed lower highs, lost the 84,000 round number and is pressing the 83,828 session low, below the 61.8% retrace of the rebound, with RSI(14) near 29.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,000 round number and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the London slide
Failure to hold the 83,616 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 84,384 swing high negates the lower-high structure
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 83,968.53
Post-flush rebound failed at asian high; London printing LH/LL.
Early Asia broke the 85,300 floor of the prior NY range and flushed to the 83,616 asian low. The rebound met rejection at the 84,384 asian high, and London has since stacked lower highs back to the 84,000 round number and the 50% fib of that rebound, RSI(14) near 31, with a firm USD into tonight's FOMC Minutes as the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,948 london low and the 83,910 61.8% fib leaves the 83,616 asian low exposed
Close back above the 84,203 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and reopens the 84,384 asian high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, with DXY holding above 102.00, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 06:30 UTC rebound high, pressing 84,000 psych.
The Asia session breakdown from 85,244 flushed to an Asia low at 83,616 against a firm USD backdrop. The rebound stalled at the 84,384 rebound high, and London has carved a lower high at 84,203 back into the 84,000 psych level, which is also the 50% retracement of the rebound. RSI(14) sits near 38, with no extreme in play.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84,000 psych level exposes the 83,813 swing low and then the 83,616 Asia low
M15 close above the 84,203 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the 84,384 rebound high back in view
Reclaim of the 85,244 breakdown area would negate the post-flush downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, plus the US 10y auction, could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs off 84,384 bounce high, testing 50% retracement.
An Asia session flush took price from about 85,300 to an 83,616 asia low as the USD bid returned with recovering yields. The rebound stalled at the 84,384 bounce high before London, and London has since printed lower highs. Price now sits on the 50% fib near 84,000, with RSI(14) around 39.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 84,000 exposes the 61.8% fib at 83,909 and the 83,616 asia low
Close above the 84,203 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the London fade, with the 84,384 bounce high next
Recovery above the 85,409 breakdown point would negate the Asia sell-off
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:33 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce rolling over · RSI 39 · price 84,037.45
Post-selloff bear flag broken lower in early London.
The Asia session selloff from the 85,227 breakdown shelf reached the 83,616 swing low. The bounce stalled at the fib 38.2 near 84,384, and early London has broken the rising flag trendline, with price pressing the 84,002 London low against a firm USD tied to Euro debt stress. RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around $139 per bar show momentum leaning lower without being stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,002 london low exposes the 83,812 asia base, then the 83,616 swing low
Reclaim of the fib 38.2 at 84,384 invalidates the bear flag read
Move back above the 85,227 breakdown shelf would negate the Asia selloff structure
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a firmer USD on French debt stress is the nearer headwind
Asia flush then rebound capped at 84,384; lower highs since, slipping below the recovery shelf.
A roughly 1,700-point Asia session flush from 85,300 to the 83,616 asia low came against a firm USD on Euro-debt stress. The rebound met rejection at the 84,384 session high, and lower highs since 06:30 UTC have price slipping through the 84,170 broken shelf into London open. RSI(14) sits near 36 with price below EMA20/50; the 84,078 swing low is next, with the 84,000 psych at the 50% of the recovery fib below it.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84,078 swing low and the 84,000 psych (50% of the recovery fib) exposes the 83,616 asia low
Reclaiming the 84,170 broken shelf eases pressure; a close above the 84,384 session high breaks the lower highs sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (21:00 broker), alongside today's US 10y auction, could materially shift this read
Tight 84160–84384 coil after Asia flush, HL chain intact.
BTC broke the 85310–85750 overnight range during the Asia session and flushed to the 83616 Asian low as the broad USD bid weighed. The rebound since then has printed a chain of higher lows along a rising trendline. Price is stalling at the 84384 session high, which sits on the 38.2% fib, and London is opening inside 84160–84384 with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 84,160.00, 84,078.00, 83,616.00
Resistance: 84,384.00, 84,598.00, 85,312.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84384 session high clears the 38.2% fib and opens the 50% fib at 84598, with the old range floor at 85312 beyond
Loss of the 84160 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 84078 higher low and the 83616 asian low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read via the USD
In early Asia, BTC broke the overnight 85,370–85,750 range and dropped to the 83,616 asian low. There was no BTC-specific catalyst; a firm USD into the FOMC Minutes is the backdrop. Since then price has ground higher in a tight flag of rising lows, capped at the 84,384 rebound high where the 38.2% fib of the drop and EMA20 converge. Early London is holding above the 84,160 london low.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,384 rebound high opens the 50% fib at 84,598
Break of the rising lows and the 84,078 swing low would end the flag, putting the 83,616 asian low back in view
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An Asia session flush broke the 85,300 shelf and hit an Asia low of 83,616 around 02:00 UTC. The backdrop was firm USD and no BTC-specific catalyst. The rebound since has carved rising lows but stalled at the 84,384 session high, the 38.2% fib of the drop, and the first hour of London is still inside that band with RSI(14) near 44 and price just under the EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,384 session high clears the 38.2% cap and opens fib 50% at 84,598
Loss of the rising lows line near 84,160 and fib 23.6% at 84,078 reopens the 83,616 asia low
The former range floor near 85,312 marks the top of the breakdown and the limit of a full retracement
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:06 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after flush · RSI 41 · price 84,235.23
Post-flush range 84078–84384, higher lows under 38.2% fib.
BTC broke below the Asian range low and 85174 breakdown point around 02:00 UTC as the dollar reclaimed DXY 102.00. The flush ran to 83616 (flush low) before stabilising. Into London open it holds a tight 84078–84384 range with a higher low at 84169, the range high capped at the 38.2% fib of the flush; price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 84,169.31, 84,078.41, 83,615.92
Resistance: 84,384.07, 84,597.80, 85,174.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84384 range high (38.2% fib) opens the 50% fib at 84598, then the 85174 breakdown point
Loss of the 84169 higher low and the 84078 range low exposes the 83616 flush low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a firmer USD is the main headwind in the digest
06:48 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in play · RSI 42 · price 84,328.13
Overnight range broken lower; higher-low chain off 83,616 forming a rising flag.
BTC broke the overnight 85,300–85,750 range lower early in the Asia session and slid to the 83,616 drop low as the USD reclaimed DXY 102.00. The rebound has printed higher lows at 84,078 and 84,169 in a shallow rising flag, now pressing the 84,384 session high where the 38.2% drop retrace and EMA20 converge, with RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,384 session high and 38.2% drop retrace opens the 50% fib at 84,598
Break of the 84,169 higher low and rising lows trendline ends the flag read; 84,078 swing low is next
Loss of 84,078 exposes the 83,616 drop low
Former range low near 85,312 is the overhead reference if the retrace extends
London open is next; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Overnight range broken lower; rising-low rebound capped at fib 38.2 / ema20.
BTC broke below the overnight range low at 85,312 during Asia hours and fell to an 83,616 session low as the USD reclaimed DXY 102.00. The flag-like rebound since then stalled at 84,366, where the fib 38.2 meets ema20, and price is back under ema20 heading into the London open. The 84,078 higher low still holds.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84,366 (fib 38.2 / ema20) opens the fib 50% near 84,558 and the range low at 85,312
Failure to hold the 84,078 higher low breaks the flag and exposes the 83,616 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with a hawkish tone adding to USD strength
Asia breakdown to 83,616, then higher lows into a 84,078–84,366 box capped at the 38.2% fib.
BTC flushed roughly $1,960 in Asia, from 85,580 to a swing low at 83,616. The drop came as DXY retook 102.00 on the risk-off dollar bid. The rebound has made higher lows off a 84,078 double low but stalled at the 84,366 session high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price is ranging just under it into the London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,366 session high opens the fib 50% at 84,598, then the 85,230 breakdown area
Loss of the 84,078 double low exposes the 83,616 swing low and resumes the lower-low sequence
London open liquidity could break the 84,078–84,366 box
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC; a hawkish tone with USD strength is flagged as the larger risk
06:06 UTC
Recovery bounce after Asia flush, still below ema20 · RSI 43 · price 84,349.11
Higher lows off 83,616 low, capped below breakdown zone.
The Asia session broke the overnight 85,310–85,750 range with a flush to the 83,616 asia low as the USD bid returned and yields turned up. Since then price has built a higher-low grind off the 84,078 double low and is now pressing the 38.2% retracement of the Asia drop at 84,366 and ema20 near 84,390, with RSI(14) ~43 and the 84,515 spike high above.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84,515 spike high clears the 50% retracement of the Asia drop at 84,598 and opens a retest of the 85,174 range floor
A break of the rising lows line and the 84,251 minor low exposes the 84,078 double low
Loss of the 84,078 double low puts the 83,616 asia low back in play
London open in about 1h, and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown flush, then tight 84078–84278 range below ema20.
Asia session broke the overnight 85310–85750 range at 01:45 UTC, flushing to an 83616 spike low as the dollar bid back above DXY 102.00. Higher lows off that low have stalled into a 84078–84278 range below the ema20, with price only ~22% back into the 86525–83616 drop heading into London open.
Support: 84,078.00, 83,825.00, 83,616.00
Resistance: 84,278.00, 84,390.00, 85,310.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84278 range high opens the ema20 near 84390 and the 38.2% fib near 84730
Loss of the 84078 range low breaks the recovery line and exposes the 83825 base and 83616 spike low
Reclaim of the 85310 breakdown level would undo the Asia flush
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, plus USD holding above DXY 102.00, could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown from overnight range, higher-low bounce capped at fib 38.2%.
Asia session broke the overnight 85,310–85,750 range floor around 01:45 UTC as the dollar firmed with yields. The drop flushed to an 83,616 swing low, and the rebound since has printed a higher low at 84,078. Late in Asia the bounce stalls at 84,278, the fib 38.2% retrace of the drop, with price still under EMA20 near 84,400.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84,280 fib 38.2% opens the fib 50% at 84,476
Loss of the 84,078 higher low exposes the 83,616 swing low
Retest of the 85,312 range floor would test the breakdown
London open could expand the Asian range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-flush consolidation 84078–84271 below the broken overnight range.
The Asia session broke the overnight range low at the 85312 breakdown level and flushed to the 83616 flush low by 02:00 UTC, as the dollar firmed above 102.00 in Asia. The rebound has stalled in a tight 84078 range low to 84271 range high box, sitting on the 23.6% drop fib and capped below the 38.2% near 84366, with price under EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 84,078.41, 83,615.92
Resistance: 84,271.19, 84,515.00, 85,312.05
What it said to watch
A close above the 84271 range high and the 38.2% drop fib near 84366 opens the 84515 spike high
Failure to hold the 84078 range low exposes the 83616 flush low
Reclaiming the 85312 breakdown level would negate the range break
London open in ~2h, and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia breakdown from overnight range, now a tight box below bounce high.
NY's rejection from 86,525 led into a quiet 85,310–85,700 overnight range. That range broke during the Asia session, flushing to the 83,616 asia low on a firm USD bid. The bounce stalled at the 84,271 bounce high, short of the fib 38.2, and price is now boxed between 84,078 (box low, at the 23.6% retracement) and 84,271 heading into London open.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,271 bounce high opens the fib 38.2 at 84,366; the 85,174 break level is the next reference above
Failure to hold the 84,078 box low exposes the 83,812 higher low and the 83,616 asia low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC; a hawkish read with USD strength could materially shift this read
04:48 UTC
Downtrend after Asia breakdown, bounce stalling · RSI 31 · price 84,147.33
Range break from 85,310–85,750, swing low 83,616, tight base 84,078–84,271.
Early Asia session broke the overnight 85,310–85,750 range, below the 85,312 range floor, with a ~$1,700 flush to an 83,616 swing low. The move came as USD retook DXY 102.00 on firmer yields. The bounce has stalled under the 84,271 bounce high, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the drop, with the 84,078 micro low holding and RSI(14) near 31 below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
Break of the 84,078 micro low (23.6% drop fib) reopens the 83,616 swing low
M15 close above the 84,271 bounce high puts the 38.2% fib at 84,366 in play; the 85,312 range floor is the structural reclaim level
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:34 UTC
Downtrend, basing after Asia flush · RSI 33 · price 84,172.30
Overnight range broken lower; shallow higher-low recovery off the session low.
Asia session broke the overnight 85,310–85,750 range lower, flushing about 1,700 dollars to the 83,616 session low as the dollar firmed on higher yields. Price is now basing in a shallow higher-low recovery below the ema20 near 84,500, capped by the 84,271 bounce high and the 38.2% level of the Asia drop fib around 84,350.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84,078 minor low breaks the recovery line and puts the 83,826 higher low and 83,616 session low back in play
M15 close above the 84,271 bounce high and the 38.2% fib exposes the ema20 near 84,500; the 85,174 range floor is the breakdown retest level
London open in ~2.5h and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia range break lower, rising lows rebound in a flag below the bounce high.
During the Asia session, price broke the overnight 85,310–85,750 range floor. A 01:45–02:15 UTC flush ran to an 83,616 swing low as the dollar bid returned on firmer yields. Since then a flag-like grind of rising lows has stalled under the 84,271 bounce high, with RSI(14) back near 29 and price still below EMA20 around 84,530.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,271 bounce high brings the fib 38.2 at 84,366 and the breakdown bar low near 84,377 into play
Loss of the rising lows line and the 84,000 round number exposes the 83,813 higher low, then the 83,616 swing low
A reclaim of the 85,312 range floor would neutralise the Asia breakdown read
London open in ~3h may set a new session range away from the current flag
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and DXY holding 102.00 could materially shift this read
Asia session range break lower, higher-low chain off 83616.
BTC lost the 85312 range low during the Asia session as the dollar firmed on rising yields. The selloff flushed to an 83616 session low before a higher-low recovery line formed. The rebound has stalled at the 84271 bounce high, below the 38.2% fib, with price still under EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,616.00
Resistance: 84,271.00, 84,366.00, 85,312.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the recovery line and the 84000 round number puts the 83616 session low back in play
Close above the 84271 bounce high and the 38.2% fib at 84366 extends the rebound toward the 50% at 84598
Reclaim of the 85312 range low negates the breakdown read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC; a hawkish read would add to the USD headwind
03:48 UTC
Downtrend after Asia flush, corrective bounce · RSI 36 · price 84,190.28
Overnight range broken lower; higher-low chain off 83,616.
Asia session broke the overnight 85,312–85,750 range. The range low gave way into a flush to the 83,616 selloff low as the dollar bid returned on geopolitics and firmer yields. Price is now building higher lows off the 83,825 base and pressing toward the 84,380 breakdown level near the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) recovering to ~36 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,380 breakdown level opens the 84,515 spike high and the 50% retracement near 84,600
Loss of the 84,008 higher low breaks the recovery line and puts the 83,825 base and 83,616 selloff low back in focus
Reclaiming the 85,312 range low would negate the range-break read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC is the main event risk for this read
Range break lower, then small higher lows under the bounce high.
Asia session broke the overnight 85310–85750 range at 01:45 UTC, sliding to the 83616 Asia low as DXY reclaimed 102.00 on Iran headlines and firmer yields. Price is now basing on higher lows at 83726 and 83813, capped at the 84141 bounce high and still below the fib 38.2 retracement near 84366.
Support: 83,812.70, 83,615.92
Resistance: 84,141.34, 84,366.00, 84,514.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84141 bounce high opens the fib 38.2 at 84366 and the 84515 breakdown high
Loss of the 83813 higher low puts the 83616 Asia low back in play; a break below extends the downtrend
ATR(14) near $250 per bar after the break, so the swing range is wider than earlier in the session
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:18 UTC
Downtrend, basing after Asia flush · RSI 25 · price 83,996.50
Range break lower, tight consolidation with higher lows.
The Asia session broke below the overnight 85,310–85,580 range and the 85,011 prior low in a roughly $1,700 flush to the 83,616 spike low, as the USD bid returned on renewed geopolitical risk and firmer yields. Price is now coiling between the 83,726 higher low and the 84,135 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 25. The rebound so far has stalled short of the 38.2% fib of the drop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,135 bounce high opens the 38.2–50% fib of the drop (84,270–84,480) and the 84,515 flush high
Failure to hold the 83,726 higher low exposes the 83,616 spike low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 85,011 prior low would neutralise the breakdown read
London open in about 4h tends to expand the Asian range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 21 · price 83,926.57
Overnight range broken lower, tight post-drop consolidation.
The Asia session broke below the 85,175–85,750 overnight range. A 960-point bar extended to an 83,616 session low, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a risk-off, USD-led backdrop. Price is now compressing between the 83,726 minor low and the 84,132 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 21 and ATR expanded to roughly 225 points.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84,132 bounce high would put the 84,515 breakdown hi and the 38.2% drop fib near 84,366 in view.
Failure to hold the 83,726 minor low and the 83,616 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 83,000 round number.
A reclaim of the 85,174 range low would negate the range break read.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Overnight range broken lower; lower highs off the 83,616 swing low.
BTC held an 85,170–85,750 range from late NY through Asia. It then broke the range floor in early Asia session, with a roughly $1,700 flush printing an 83,616 swing low within two bars. RSI(14) sits near 21 and the bounce is capped at the 84,132 bounce high. The digest carries no BTC-specific headline behind the drop.
What it said to watch
Break below the 83,616 swing low extends the drop toward the 83,500 round number
Reclaim of the 84,132 bounce high, then the 84,380 breakdown bar near the 23.6% drop fib, would establish a bounce structure
Return above the 85,174 range floor would turn the move into a false break
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia range broken lower; minor higher low forming above the 83,616 session low.
Price spent the Asia session sliding along a line of lower highs, then broke the 85,170–85,580 range at 01:45 UTC. The move fell about $1,700 to a session low at 83,616 and cleared the prior low at 85,011, with no BTC-specific headline and the dollar-driven risk-off tone the only backdrop. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, and price is now basing above the minor low at 83,726, below the bounce high at 84,133.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,726 minor low and the 83,616 session low extends the flush
Close above the 84,133 bounce high, then the 84,515 spike high (near the 50% of the flush fib, ~84,600), would ease the downside structure
Prior low at 85,011 and the lower highs trendline near 85,150 now act as overhead resistance
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Overnight range broken lower; fresh lower low at 83,616, weak bounce.
Asia session broke the overnight 85,170–85,580 range lower at 01:45 UTC. Price sliced through yesterday's 85,011 prior low and printed an 83,616 session low two bars later, a flush of roughly 1,700 from the range floor, with no BTC-specific catalyst flagged in the digest. RSI(14) near 20 is deeply oversold, and the rebound has so far stalled at the 84,515 bounce high, well below the 38.2 level of the drop fib.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,515 bounce high opens a retest of the 38.2 fib near 84,728
Reclaim of the 85,011 prior low (near the drop fib 50%) would neutralise the range-break read
Failure to hold the 83,616 session low extends the downtrend toward the 83,000 round number
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, sharp leg lower in Asia · RSI 19 · price 84,361.10
Lower highs since the NY high, range break below prior low.
Lower highs from 85,750 since the NY afternoon reversal off 86,525 resolved in the Asia session, with a single ~$920 bar slicing through the 85,000 prior low to a session low at 84,322. RSI(14) is near 19, deeply oversold, with no fresh BTC news. The move fits the risk-off, firm-USD backdrop in the digest.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 85,011 prior low marks the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 84,322 session low leaves the 84,000 round number next in view
The 85,337 breakdown bar high caps any rebound, and the lower highs trendline sits near 85,550
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:48 UTC
Downtrend since NY session high · RSI 43 · price 85,323.04
Lower highs and lower lows; overnight range broken lower in Asia.
Rejection from the NY session high at 86,525 started a chain of lower highs, the latest at 85,751. The Asia session then broke below the overnight 85,445–85,580 range and printed a session low at 85,174. RSI(14) sits near 43, a two-way USD backdrop gives no fresh catalyst, and price is drifting just under the 85,406 breakdown level.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 85,406 breakdown level weakens the range-break read
Failure to hold the 85,174 session low exposes the 24h low at 85,011
Lower-high trendline near 85,530 and the 85,580 range top cap any rebound; a close above 85,751 lower high ends the lower-high sequence
Most of the NY high leg sits above price; a rebound stalling below its 38.2% retracement near 85,690 keeps the downtrend structure intact
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs compressing into a flat 85,365 floor; Asian low under test.
The NY session high at 86,526 was rejected, and price slid about 1,200 points into a 85,310–85,750 band, capped by the late NY high. Early Asia is printing lower highs and pressing the Asian low near 85,365, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs. The broader USD and risk-off backdrop is giving no lift.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,365 Asian low exposes the 85,312 swing low, then the prior low at 85,011
Close above the lower highs trendline (~85,530) and the 85,567 Asian high breaks the compression; the late NY high at 85,751 sits above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC later today could materially shift this read
01:07 UTC
Sideways-to-lower after NY rejection, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 85,482.86
Lower highs compressing into a flat 85,310–85,370 base.
The NY session rejection at the 86,526 ny high unwound the London/NY rally, and price has since printed lower highs off the 85,752 swing high. The lower-highs trendline is pressing price into the 85,312 swing low and 85,367 asia low base. The Asia range so far is 85,367–85,567, with a broad USD bid from Euro debt stress keeping the tape heavy.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 85,312 swing low breaks the base and exposes the London-open day low at 85,011
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 85,567 asia high ends the compression read
Reclaiming the 85,752 swing high, near the 38.2% of the ny selloff, would put the 86,526 ny high back in focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:33 UTC
Down-drift after NY reversal, momentum soft · RSI 37 · price 85,370.98
Lower highs inside 85,310–85,750 range, price at range floor in early Asia.
Early Asia session has BTC back at 85,370, testing the 85,312 swing low and the 78.6% retrace of yesterday's London-NY rally after the rejection at the 86,526 NY session high. Since then a chain of lower highs, most recently 85,567, has capped bounces. With no BTC-specific news, the risk-off USD backdrop is the only driver in play.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85,312 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 85,011 asia low
Close above the 85,567 lower high and the falling lower-highs trendline negates the drift, 85,752 swing high next
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Pullback from NY high, now flat and compressing · RSI 46 · price 85,545.79
Lower highs capping a flat base near 85,310–85,450.
Rejection at the 86,525 NY high unwound most of the rally from the 85,011 day low. Price has since retraced past the 61.8% fib and compressed under a lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 46 and price pinned to EMA20. In early Asia, a sweep of the post-NY lows to the 85,312 swing low was reclaimed within the bar, with the dollar's risk-off tone keeping a lid on rebounds.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 85,680 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 85,751 swing high near the 50% fib is next
Close below the 85,312 swing low reopens the 85,011 day low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Ongoing USD demand on European debt stress keeps rebounds toward the ny high capped
Lower highs inside a 85310–85750 range after NY reversal.
The 85011–86526 London-NY rally saw rejection at the 86526 session high, and price has since compressed under a line of lower highs into the Asia session. The late dip to the 85312 swing low reached the 78.6% fib of that rally and was bought back. RSI(14) is near 42 with no BTC-specific news, so price is tracking the broader USD and risk tone.
Support: 85,312.05, 85,011.38
Resistance: 86,525.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 85312 swing low exposes the 85011 day low
Close above the 85751 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens 86000+
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read