Since the 83430 midday high, price has stepped lower through NY hours. The Michigan miss and firmer inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC sparked a brief bounce to the 83229 NY high, but every high since then has been lower. The latest dip held at the 82202 swing low, near the 61.8% fib of the 81487–83430 move, and price sits under the descending trendline with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 82,202.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,410.00, 82,565.00, 83,229.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82410 lower high would break both the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence, putting the 82565 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 82202 swing low and the 61.8% fib extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 psych level
Thin post-NY weekend liquidity can exaggerate moves; US CPI on Oct 14 is the next scheduled macro risk
20:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 37 · price 82,317.35
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 83229; NY lows at 82390 broken.
The post-Michigan bounce to the 83229 ny high faded into a chain of lower highs. The digest reads the Michigan data as a stagflation mix that keeps Fed hike risk alive. Late NY broke the 82390 lows and printed a session low at 82202, near the 61.8% fib of the 81487–83430 rally. RSI(14) is ~37 with price below both EMAs, and the descending trendline caps price at the 82410 lower high, with the swing high at 82565 above.
Support: 82,202.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,410.00, 82,565.00, 83,229.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82410 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 82202 session low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 82000 round number
Thin post-NY weekend trade; Fed's Hammack (Oct 12) and US CPI (Oct 14) are the next macro catalysts
20:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 37 · price 82,341.32
Failed late-London breakout fully retraced; lower highs under a falling trendline, back inside the London range.
The late-London breakout to the 83,430 session high did not hold. NY hours carved a lower-high sequence under a falling trendline and took price back into the London range, with a session low at 82,202, just under the 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally near 82,247. RSI(14) is near 37 with price below both EMAs; there is no BTC-specific news, and a firm USD after the stagflation-tinged Michigan data is the backdrop.
What it said to watch
A close back above the 82,395 prior low and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 82,202 session low clears the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 82,000 round number
Acceptance above the 82,672 London high puts the 83,430 session high back in view
Weekend liquidity is thin; the next scheduled risk is Fed's Hammack on Oct 12, with US CPI on Oct 14 the larger swing factor
20:06 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 31 · price 82,270.40
Lower highs and lower lows since the 14:30 UTC high.
The London-midday spike to the 83430 session high failed, and the post-Michigan bounce stalled at 83229. Late NY has since printed a lower-high chain under a descending trendline. Price is back below the london low at 82332 and is testing the 82202 swing low, right at the 61.8% fib of the 81487–83430 advance.
Support: 82,202.47, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,332.33, 82,565.07
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 82332 london low would undercut the false-break read
A break of the 82202 swing low and the 82146 asia pivot extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 round number
A clean break of the descending trendline and the 82565 lower high would mark a shift in intraday structure
Thin weekend liquidity can distort moves; Fed's Hammack (Oct 12) is the next scheduled macro catalyst
Lower-high sequence off 83430, broken lows at 82390, testing 82250 swing low.
The rally from the 81515 Asian low ran to an 83430 session high before 11:30 UTC, where it met rejection. Price then faded through NY hours after UoM 1y inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, keeping Fed hike risk in play. A descending trendline of lower highs has driven price through the 82390 broken lows, and late NY is now sitting on the 82250 swing low, which aligns with the 61.8% fib of the day's rally.
Support: 82,250.00, 82,000.00, 81,515.00
Resistance: 82,390.00, 82,565.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82250 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 round number
Reclaim of the 82390 broken lows and the descending trendline would stall the downtrend read
Close above the 82565 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Fed's Hammack (Oct 12) is the first scheduled risk ahead of CPI on Oct 14
19:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 36 · price 82,369.29
Failed London breakout; LH/LL chain through NY afternoon.
Late NY session: BTC has given back the London breakout to the 83,430 day high and is printing lower highs along a falling trendline from the 83,229 post-Michigan spike, with a session low at 82,250. The UoM miss came with firmer inflation expectations (1y 4.7%), and the spike faded. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold.
What it said to watch
A break below the 82,250 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82,000 psych level
An M15 close above the 82,565 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the NY downtrend read
Reclaim of ~82,700 (38.2% fib of the 83,430–82,250 NY decline) would put the day high back in view
Friday-close and weekend liquidity is thin; US CPI on Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled macro catalyst
19:09 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the day high · RSI 32 · price 82,371.29
Lower highs and lower lows since 83430, back inside the Asian range.
The late-London spike to the 83430 day high has been fully unwound, leaving a false break of the Asian range. The NY session has stepped down in lower highs, and the post-Michigan whipsaw to 83229 capped. Price now sits back under the 82590 Asian high, with the 82250 swing low printed at 18:30 UTC and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 82,250.42, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,565.07, 82,590.05, 83,430.12
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82565 lower high and back over the 82590 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence.
Failure to hold the 82250 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82000 round number.
Thin weekend trade follows late NY; Fed's Hammack on Oct 12 is the next scheduled US driver ahead of CPI on Oct 14.
18:48 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 34 · price 82,392.26
Lower highs from 83229, probing below 82390 ny low.
London's spike to the 83430 session high faded. The post-Michigan pop to the 83229 NY high was rejected as the sentiment miss came with firmer inflation expectations. Since then a lower-highs sequence has driven price through the 82390 NY low to a 82250 swing low after London close, and it now sits back at the NY low with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 82,390.00, 82,250.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,677.00, 83,229.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82677 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Acceptance below the 82250 swing low extends the downtrend toward the 82000 round number
Recovery and hold above the 82390 ny low turns the dip to 82250 into a false break
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity can exaggerate moves around the 82250–82390 zone
Lower-high chain since 83430, price testing NY low.
The late-London breakout to the 83430 session high has unwound through a lower-high chain under a descending trendline. The post-UoM high at 83229 faded after the Michigan miss and firmer inflation expectations. Late in the NY session, price sits at the 50% fib of the Asian-low-to-session-high advance and is pressing the 82390 NY low, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 82,390.27, 82,332.33, 82,247.00
Resistance: 82,676.95, 83,229.34, 83,430.12
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82390 ny low exposes the 82332 london low and the 61.8% fib near 82247
Close above the descending trendline and the 82677 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 83229 post-UoM high would put the 83430 session high back in play
Thin Friday-evening liquidity can exaggerate moves; US CPI on Oct 14 is the next major macro catalyst
18:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY high, losing momentum · RSI 39 · price 82,575.06
Failed London breakout; lower highs and lower lows back inside prior London range.
Late in the NY session, the 11:30 UTC break of the London high to 83430 has failed. Price is back inside the prior London range (82332–82672), with lower highs stepping down from the 83229 NY high. That high came on a brief pop after the stagflation-leaning Michigan release faded. Price now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 81487–83430 rally, RSI(14) ~39, with the 82436 swing low and 82390 NY low as the nearby floor.
Support: 82,436.22, 82,390.27, 82,332.33
Resistance: 82,671.96, 83,229.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82436 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 82390 NY low and 82332 London low
Reclaim of the 82672 London high and the 82781 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 83229 NY high
Liquidity thins after NY close into the weekend; Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled macro risk ahead of US CPI
Late-London spike to the 83430 day high was rejected. Through NY the move has printed lower highs at 83229 and 82927, with the NY low at 82436 holding near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally. Price is back inside the London range and pinned around EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41, and tone stayed heavy after the UoM miss and firmer inflation expectations.
Support: 82,436.00, 82,332.00, 82,229.00
Resistance: 82,672.00, 82,927.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 82436 ny low and 82332 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward fib 61.8 at 82229
Rejection at the 82672 london high keeps price inside the London range
M15 close above the 82927 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs chain, with the 83430 day high the reference above
No US data in the next 8h; late-Friday liquidity is thin and moves can be erratic
17:48 UTC
Overnight up leg stalled, short-term lower highs · RSI 41 · price 82,562.08
Failed breakout back inside London range; lower highs since 83430.
The late-London spike to the 83430 session high has fully unwound. Through NY, price printed lower highs at 83229 and 82965 after the UoM sentiment miss and firmer inflation expectations, and is now back below the 82672 london high, near the 78.6% fib of the 82332–83430 leg. RSI(14) is ~41 with price under both EMAs, while the 82390 swing low and 82436 recent low have held so far.
Support: 82,436.22, 82,390.27, 82,332.33
Resistance: 82,671.96, 83,430.12
What it said to watch
Break of the 82390 swing low exposes the 82332 london low and erases the whole spike
Close back above the 82672 london high and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the NY fade; 82965 lower high is next
Recovery through the 83430 session high would reopen the breakout read
Thinning Friday-evening and weekend liquidity; Fed's Hammack (Oct 12 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled US risk
NY fade under a descending line, testing the NY lows.
BTC broke above the London range late morning and was rejected at the 83,430 session high. NY has since printed lower highs under a descending line from the 83,229 post-data high set after the Michigan release (miss on sentiment, higher inflation expectations). Price has slipped back toward the 82,390–82,436 NY lows, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Asia-to-high leg, with RSI(14) near 43 and both EMAs overhead.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,390 ny open low, then the 82,332 london low, extends the lower-high sequence below the 50% asia-high fib
An M15 close above the descending line and the 82,781 lower high neutralises the NY fade, putting the 83,229 post-data hi back in play
No scheduled US data before Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and CPI (Oct 14 12:30 UTC); thin weekend liquidity can exaggerate moves through the late ny low
17:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, momentum soft · RSI 45 · price 82,550.09
Lower highs from 83430 under a falling trendline; price back at the Asian range high.
The London leg broke the Asian high at 82593 and spiked to 83430. Since then price has bled back under a falling trendline. The 83229 NY high and the 82781 lower high capped it, and price now sits just under the Asian high, near the 78.6% retrace of the London leg. After London close the USD stayed firm into NY on the UoM sentiment miss and higher inflation expectations, and BTC has no fresh catalyst of its own.
Support: 82,390.27, 82,332.33
Resistance: 82,593.04, 83,229.34
What it said to watch
A close below the 82390 NY low, double-tested at the NY open, takes out the London leg's 78.6% retrace and exposes the 82332 London low.
A close back above the 82781 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83229 NY high back in view.
Acceptance back inside the Asian range below 82593 would turn the London breakout into a full round-trip.
No US data in the next 8h. With thin late-Friday liquidity, ranges may compress toward ATR lows.
Lower highs and lower lows since 83229, inside the 82390–83430 range.
London cleared the Asian range top near 82593 and spiked to the 83430 day high at 11:45 UTC. The NY open then knocked price back to the 82390 ny low. The bounce around the soft Michigan print stalled at 83229 (ny high), and late NY hours have printed lower highs into the 82628 swing low. Price sits just under the 61.8% retrace of the breakout leg, below EMA20 and just above EMA50.
Support: 82,628.00, 82,390.00, 82,332.00
Resistance: 82,966.00, 83,229.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82628 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82390 ny low
Close above the 82966 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens 83229 ny high
Loss of the 82332 london low fully unwinds the London breakout leg
Thin Friday/weekend liquidity ahead of Fed speakers and US CPI on Oct 14 can exaggerate moves
Lower highs and lower lows through NY, retesting London range top.
A late-London breakout from the 82,520 range top ran to the session high at 83,430. The Michigan miss and firmer inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC sparked a bounce off the 82,390 NY low that stalled at the 83,229 NY high. Since then the NY session has printed a lower high at 82,927 and a swing low at 82,628, putting price back on the London range top near the 61.8–78.6% zone of the breakout leg fib. RSI(14) is at 44 with price under EMA20 and just holding EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,628 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 82,390 NY low and 82,332 London low
Close above the 82,927 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 83,229 NY high
Acceptance back above the 83,430 session high would resume the breakout leg
No US data in the next 8h; next week's US CPI (f/c 3.6%) and Fed speakers are the macro catalysts
16:34 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs since NY open · RSI 43 · price 82,649.98
Breakout leg retracing to former range top; lower-high sequence from 83,430.
Late-London breakout from the 82,330–82,670 range ran to a session high at 83,430. Since then a lower-high sequence (83,230 swing high, then ~82,930) has pulled price back to the former range top near 82,630, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of the breakout leg. During NY hours the UoM sentiment miss and firmer inflation expectations drove a two-way swing, with twin lows near 82,390 holding; RSI(14) ~43, price below EMA20 and just above EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,630 range top exposes the 82,390 twin lows and the 82,332 swing low at the breakout leg origin
Close back above the 82,930 lower highs breaks the descending sequence and brings the 83,230 swing high into view
Acceptance above 83,230 reopens the 83,430 session high
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Friday NY close into weekend trade, with US CPI (Oct 14, 12:30 UTC) the next macro catalyst
Lower highs vs higher lows since the 83,430 day high, compressing near midpoint.
London broke out of its 82,330–82,670 range to an 83,430 day high, and price is now coiling late in the NY session. Lower highs (83,229 NY high, then the 82,966 lower high) and higher lows off the 82,390 NY low are squeezing price around 82,880, the 50% retrace of the breakout fib. The dip into the 14:00 UTC Michigan miss and firmer inflation expectations was bought at the NY low. RSI(14) is flat near 50.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,966 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 83,229 NY high, then the 83,430 day high
Failure to hold the 82,688 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 82,390 NY low
A break below the 82,390 NY low would put price under the 61.8% of the breakout fib and negate the breakout read
Thin liquidity after NY close into the weekend can produce outsized moves relative to an ATR of roughly $260
Lower highs from 83,430 into flat lows near 82,732; holding the 61.8% of the breakout leg.
Late in the London session BTC broke the 82,450–82,670 range and set a session high at 83,430. Since that rejection it has printed lower highs at 83,229 (the NY high) and 82,965, while flat lows near 82,732 sit on the 61.8% of the breakout leg. The UoM data, with sentiment missing and inflation expectations rising, drove a two-way NY swing off the 82,390 double low, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~46 with price under EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,732 flat lows exposes the 82,390 double low
Close above the 82,965 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 83,229 NY high
Loss of the 82,332 swing low negates the breakout leg entirely
15:48 UTC
Uptrend paused, ranging below day high · RSI 49 · price 82,874.73
Lower high under 83430, range 82390–83230 in NY hours.
Late-London spike to the 83430 day high has faded into an 82390–83230 range during NY hours. Demand stepped in twice at the 82390 ny low around the Michigan miss, near the 50% retrace of the rally fib from 81515. Price now sits between the 83229 lower high and the 82732 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 82,731.89, 82,390.27
Resistance: 83,229.34, 83,430.12
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83229 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 83430 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 82732 swing low exposes the 82390 ny low; a break there undercuts the 50% of the rally fib
Fedspeak from Hammack (Oct 12) is the next scheduled US risk; no US data is due in the next 8h
Higher lows from 80,264; lower highs since 83,430 peak.
BTC built a day-long chain of higher lows from 80,264, broke above the Asian high and spiked to a session high of 83,430 in late London. NY hours twice found demand at a tested low near 82,390, and the bounce on the Michigan miss stalled at a lower high of 83,229. Price is now compressing between that run of lower highs and the 82,732 swing low, sitting on EMA20, with RSI(14) ~54 and ATR(14) ~$250.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,229 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 83,430 session high
Failure to hold the 82,732 swing low exposes the 82,590 Asian high, the old range top
Close below the 82,390 tested low and the higher-lows trendline ends the intraday uptrend read
No US data left today; Hammack Mon Oct 12 and CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC are the next macro catalysts
Range 82,390–83,430 below the late-London session high.
The overnight uptrend from 80,264 topped at the 83,430 session high late in the London morning. The NY-open dip set a double low at 82,390, and the bounce after the Michigan sentiment miss stalled at a 83,229 lower high. Price now sits on EMA20 near 82,790, just above the 82,732 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,732 swing low puts the 82,390 double low back in play
Failure to hold the 82,390 double low breaks the higher-low sequence from 80,264
Close above the 83,229 lower high reopens the 83,430 session high
Friday liquidity thins after London close; no US data scheduled in the next 8h
15:07 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below day high · RSI 54 · price 82,903.70
HH at 83430 in London, NY pullback held a double low at 82390, bounce capped at a lower high 83230.
Steady Asia climb off the 80264 low led to a London breakout above 82670 and a day high at 83430. In the first hour of NY, buyers stepped in twice at the 82390 double low. The bounce through the Michigan miss and the firmer inflation expectations stalled at a lower high near 83230, leaving price mid-range with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 82,670.00, 82,390.00
Resistance: 83,230.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83430 day high resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 82390 double low prints a lower low and breaks the intraday uptrend
Acceptance back below the 82670 breakout lvl keeps price inside the NY pullback range
Close above the 83230 lower high trendline cancels the lower-highs read
No US data in the next 8h; yields and USD tone into the Friday NY close drive the session
14:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, NY now two-sided · RSI 59 · price 82,989.61
Higher low at 82390, lower high at 83229; NY range inside 11:45 UTC breakout high.
BTC grinded off the 80263 low through Asia, then broke the London range top at 82672 late morning to a session high at 83430. The NY open sell-off retraced most of that breakout leg to an NY low at 82390, where buyers stepped in around the soft UoM sentiment miss. The rebound stalled at a lower high near 83229 and price is holding above the 82845 pivot low.
Support: 82,845.00, 82,672.00, 82,390.00
Resistance: 83,229.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83229 lower high, then 83430 session high, resumes the breakout leg
Loss of the 82845 pivot low puts the 82672 range top retest back in play
Break of the 82390 NY low invalidates the breakout and returns price to the London range
Thinning Friday liquidity after NY hours; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled risk
HL chain from 81515; post-flush rebound testing NY high.
London broke above the 81515–82590 Asian range to a session high at 83430 before fading. A NY-open flush found a double low at 82390, which held through the UoM release (sentiment miss, 1y expectations 4.7%), and price is back at 83118, just under the 83150 NY high and above the higher-low trendline.
Support: 82,850.00, 82,390.00
Resistance: 83,150.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 83150 NY high reopens the 83430 session high
Loss of the 82850 midday low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 82390 double low again
Sub-82390 close breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Friday NY afternoon liquidity; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
London breakout, deep NY retracement, higher low held.
The late-London breakout leg cleared the 82,672 prior high and ran to an 83,430 session high, then the NY open retraced almost all of it. Buyers stepped in at the 82,390 NY low twice (13:30 and 14:00 UTC), holding above the 82,332 London low, and the rebound through the stagflation-tinged UoM print has price back near the 50% retrace at ~82,880. RSI(14) is around 58.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,000 round number reopens the 83,430 session high
Holding above the 82,672 prior high keeps the breakout read intact
Loss of the 82,390 NY low and 82,332 London low erases the breakout leg
Back inside the London range after a false break above 82672.
The London breakout through the 82672 range top ran to an 83430 session high at 11:45 UTC, then faded. A 13:30 UTC flush into the NY open retraced most of the breakout fib to the 82396 ny low and broke the 82850 prior shelf. Price now sits back inside the London range near 82490, with RSI(14) mid-range at about 49 and no fresh BTC-specific driver in the digest.
Support: 82,396.00, 82,332.00, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,672.00, 82,850.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Loss of the 82396 ny low and the 82332 london low completes a full retrace of the breakout fib and exposes the 82000 round number
An M15 close back above the 82672 range top reopens the 82850 prior shelf and the 83430 session high
Late-London buying pushed through the 82,712 prior high to an 83,430 session high, but the 13:30 UTC bar erased the whole move to 82,396. That leaves a false break, price back below EMA20/50, and the rising trendline under the overnight leg broken. The higher-low chain from the 80,264 low still holds above the 82,332 London low; there is no BTC-specific driver, and macro inputs are thin.
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 82,332 London low breaks the higher-low chain, exposing fib 38.2 at 82,220 and the 82,147 swing low
Recovery back above the 82,712 prior high would neutralise the false break, with the 83,000 round number and 83,430 session high above
Late-London breakout above 82712 prior high, lower highs off 83430 into the NY open.
Late London cleared the Asian/London range and the 82712 breakout lvl, spiking to a session high of 83430 on a softer dollar. Price has since printed lower highs and sits on the 50% retrace near the 82850 pullback low into the first hour of NY, RSI(14) cooling to the high-50s.
Support: 82,850.00, 82,712.00, 82,332.00
Resistance: 83,093.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 82850 pullback low puts the 82712 breakout lvl in play for a retest
Loss of 82712 turns the move into a false break back toward the 82332 london low
M15 close above the 83093 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 83430 session high
HH/HL chain from overnight low; shallow pullback after late-London range break.
Late London cleared the prior high at 82712 and ran to a session high at 83430. Price is now holding 82854–83093, on the 50–61.8% fib of the 82332–83430 leg, with RSI(14) cooled to ~60. With no BTC-specific news, the lift tracked a softer dollar on easing yields.
Support: 82,854.00, 82,712.00, 82,332.00
Resistance: 83,093.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 82854 pullback low puts the 82712 prior high in play as a retest zone; loss of that reopens the 82332 london low
Break above the 83093 minor high brings the 83430 session high back into focus
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:07 UTC
Uptrend, pausing after breakout · RSI 62 · price 83,020.57
Higher lows from the 80264 NY low; breakout above London high, now pulling back.
Recovery from yesterday's 80264 NY low ground higher through the Asia session on a chain of higher lows. Late London broke the 82672 london high and ran to a session high at 83430. The pullback has held the 50% fib near the 82854 pullback low under a 83350 lower high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~62 into the NY open.
Support: 82,853.76, 82,671.96, 82,332.33
Resistance: 83,350.21, 83,430.12
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82854 pullback low exposes the 82672 london high as the retest area
Close above the 83350 lower high reopens the 83430 session high
Loss of the 82332 london low breaks the higher lows trendline and the uptrend read
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:48 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 62 · price 83,012.58
Higher lows since 80,263; London range broken higher, now consolidating at the 38.2% retracement.
The late-London break of the 82,670 London high ran to an 83,430 session high, then faded through a lower high at 83,273. Price is holding the 82,950 pullback low, right on the 38.2% fib of the 82,332 swing low to session-high leg. The move tracked a softer dollar with no BTC-specific catalyst, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 62 from its peak.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,950 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 82,880 and the London high at 82,670
Reclaim of the 83,273 lower high and then the 83,430 session high would resume the higher-high chain
Loss of the 82,332 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline structure
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:33 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after breakout · RSI 66 · price 83,052.54
Higher lows from 80264; London range broken higher, now a lower high off 83430.
The London range of 82330–82670 gave way at 11:15 UTC, and price spiked to an 83430 session high before supply capped it and left a lower high at 83273. The pullback is holding the 83000 round number, near the 38.2% retrace of the 82330–83430 leg, with RSI(14) cooling to ~66 on a softer USD and no BTC-specific catalyst. The higher-lows sequence from yesterday's NY low at 80264 remains intact.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,670.00, 82,330.00
Resistance: 83,273.00, 83,430.00
What it said to watch
Loss of the 83000 round number opens a retest of the 82670 range top, with the 61.8% retrace near 82750
An M15 close above the 83273 lower high puts the 83430 session high back in play
A return below the 82330 range low voids the breakout and breaks the higher-lows trendline
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:18 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 69 · price 83,254.31
London range break, higher highs and higher lows.
A late-London breakout at 11:15 UTC cleared the 82,330–82,670 session range and yesterday's 82,710 prior high, tagging the 83,430 session high before stalling. RSI(14) is near 69, and the first pullback held the 83,090 pullback low as the USD eases. The higher-low trendline from the overnight lows remains intact below.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,710 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 83,090 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 82,880
Close above the 83,430 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 84,000 round number
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 82,330 London low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, into NY hours, could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Higher lows since 80264, range top cleared pre-NY.
BTC broke above the London range top near 82700 (82672–82712, which also caps yesterday's high) late in the London session. The move ran to a 83430 spike high before a rejection wick pulled it back to 83136, holding above the 83000 psych level. The leg has unwound most of yesterday's NY-session flush to 80264 and comes alongside a softer USD on easing yields, with no BTC-specific catalyst; RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 83,000.00, 82,700.00, 82,332.00
Resistance: 83,430.00, 84,000.00
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish expectations print firms the USD
An M15 close back below the 82700 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
A close above the 83430 spike high opens the path toward the 84000 round number
A loss of 83000 psych puts the 50–61.8% fib zone (82881–82752) and the rising lows trendline into play
A break of the 82332 swing low invalidates the higher-low sequence
11:47 UTC
Uptrend, fresh 24h high · RSI 68 · price 82,988.61
HH/HL chain from the 80,264 low; London range break higher.
Steady higher lows since the 80,264 NY-session low lifted BTC through the Asian range. Late in the London session it broke the 82,672 London high, and price now sits at a fresh 24h high just under the 83,000 round number. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched, and the move lines up with a softer USD on Trump's Iran pledge.
What it said to watch
Hold of the 82,672 London high as a retest keeps the range break intact
M15 close back below the 82,332 swing low invalidates the breakout read
Rejection at the 83,000 round number would cap the session high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian low at 81,515 sits on the rising trendline zone, the base of the HL chain
11:33 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under prior high · RSI 47 · price 82,524.12
Higher lows since Asia, capped at 82,670-82,710.
The rebound from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 ran through Asia on a softer USD. London then pushed past the Asian high to a london high at 82,672 and was rejected just under the prior high at 82,712. Price is consolidating around EMA20 near 82,520 with RSI(14) at 47, and the 10:30 UTC swing low at 82,332 is holding on the rising trendline.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,712 prior high breaks the London cap and the consolidation read
Loss of the 82,332 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 82,146 higher low and the 23.6% rebound fib near 82,100
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL from 80,264 low; London capped below 82,712, back inside Asian range.
The recovery from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 built higher lows through Asia. London pushed past the 82,590 Asian high but stalled at the 82,672 session high, just under the 82,712 prior high, and the 10:00 UTC drop to the 82,332 session low put price back inside the Asian range. RSI(14) is near 43 and price sits below EMA20; no fresh BTC catalyst, so the tape is following USD and yields.
What it said to watch
A break below the 82,332 session low and the rising support line would expose the 82,146 swing low, the last higher low from Asia
An M15 close back above the 82,590 Asian high would reopen the 82,672 session high and 82,712 prior high cap
A clean break above the 82,712 prior high would mark a fresh high in the recovery fib leg
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:06 UTC
Recovery rally stalling into a sideways range · RSI 50 · price 82,481.17
London range 82,330–82,670 after Asia higher-lows off the 80,264 low.
The Asia session extended the rally off yesterday's 80,264 NY low. London has since stalled between the 82,332 session low and the 82,672 session high, just under the 82,712 prior high. The 10:30 UTC rejection from 82,650 knocked price back under EMA20, and RSI(14) is flat near 50 with no BTC-specific catalyst, leaving the tape macro-driven.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,712 prior high breaks the London range top and the session high cap.
Failure to hold the 82,332 session low exposes the 82,146 asia pivot near the 23.6% retracement of the rally.
A break of the 81,515 asian low would undo the overnight higher-low sequence.
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The overnight recovery from 80,264 stalled in London, which capped at a session high of 82,672, just shy of the 82,730 prior high where yesterday's NY sell-off began. A 10:30 UTC drop broke the rising-lows line and the London range, printing a new session low at 82,332. Price now sits below ema20 with RSI(14) near 46, on a macro-driven tape with no BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
Close below the 82,332 session low exposes the 82,146 swing low and the 23.6% recovery fib near 82,100
Reclaim of ema20 (~82,510) followed by a break of the 82,672 session high puts the 82,730 prior high back in focus
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
HH/HL recovery from 80264, London compressing below session high.
BTC has retraced almost all of yesterday's NY-session drop to 80264, grinding higher through Asia in a HH/HL chain as the dollar softened, with no BTC-specific catalyst. London has compressed into an 82417–82672 range, with price resting on the rising trendline from the 82147 Asia low and RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 82,580.00, 82,417.00, 82,147.00
Resistance: 82,672.00, 82,755.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline near 82580 shifts the read to a flat range inside the london low to session high band
Break of the 82417 london low ends the higher-low chain off the 82147 asia low and opens the 38.2% rally fib near 81750
Close above the 82672 session high puts the 82755 prior high, yesterday's pre-selloff top, in play
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 80,264 low; London range 82,417–82,672 under prior high.
BTC has retraced nearly all of Thursday's NY-session drop to 80,264. The rally from that low has held a higher-low chain along a rising line through Asia and London, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a macro-driven tape. London is compressing between the 82,417 session low and the 82,672 session high, just under the 82,712 prior high, with RSI(14) near 60 and no extreme.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,712 prior high clears the pre-selloff level and exposes the 82,849 24h high
Loss of the 82,476 higher low and rising line, then the 82,417 session low, breaks the HH/HL chain
Below the 82,146 swing low, the rally fib 38.2% near 81,752 comes into view
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low recovery from 80,264, now a tight London consolidation.
BTC has recovered from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 in a steady higher-low climb through Asia. The move has stalled into a 82,417–82,672 London range, with highs edging lower under the London high and the 82,712 prior high above it. RSI(14) is near 56 and the tape is macro-driven, with no fresh crypto catalyst and a softer USD underpinning the bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,672 London high and 82,712 prior high opens the 83,080 24h high
Failure to hold the 82,417 London low exposes the 82,146 swing low, then the fib 38.2 near 81,750
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the London range either way
Higher-low chain from 80,264 low, now compressing below prior high.
The recovery from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 built a steady higher-low chain through Asia. London has stalled in a tight 82,420–82,670 band, with the 82,672 session high only a marginal new high and bar ranges contracting just under the 82,712 prior high. There is no BTC-specific driver, so the tape is trading off a softer USD into today's UoM data.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,712 prior high clears yesterday's bounce top and extends the recovery
Break below the 82,417 london low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 82,146 swing low
Rejection at the 82,672 session high for a third time would turn the compression into a range top
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 80,264; London compressing just above the Asian high.
The rebound from yesterday's 80,264 NY-session low built higher lows through Asia, and price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of Thursday's sell-off. London nudged above the 82,590 Asian high but has stalled in a tight 82,448–82,672 band beneath the session high and 82,712 swing high. There is no BTC-specific catalyst, so the tape is tracking a softer USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,672 session high and 82,712 swing high opens a run at the 83,000 round number
Break of the 82,448 london low puts the 82,146 higher low and the rebound fib 23.6% zone in play
Loss of the 81,515 asian low would break the higher-low chain
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 80,264, now compressing in a tight London range.
The recovery from yesterday's 80,264 low has stalled mid-London in a roughly 250-point range (82,417–82,672), just above the Asian range top. The 08:45 UTC push to the 82,672 session high met an immediate rejection. With no BTC-specific catalyst and a mixed-to-hawkish macro tape, price is coiling around 82,500 with RSI(14) near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,672 session high clears the London range and opens the path toward the 83,197 prior high
Loss of the 82,417 london low puts the 82,146 swing low back in focus; a break there ends the higher-low chain
Below 82,146, the 81,515 asian low and the recovery fib 38.2% near 81,750 become the next reference
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 80,264; London broke above Asian high.
Recovery from the 80,264 NY-session low has built a clean HH/HL chain along a rising trendline. London pushed above the Asian high at 82,441 to a session high of 82,672, RSI(14) around 58. With no fresh crypto catalyst, the tape is tracking the softer USD and easing yields.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,441 Asian high would undercut the London breakout
Loss of the rising trendline near 82,530 shifts the tape into range
Break of the 82,146 swing low ends the HH/HL sequence off 80,264; the 38.2% fib of that leg sits near 81,750
Acceptance above the 82,672 session high brings the 82,750 prior range, then the 83,197 prior high, into view
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:48 UTC
Uptrend off 80,264 low, stalling under prior high · RSI 55 · price 82,499.15
HH/HL chain since NY low; testing rising trendline.
The recovery from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 built a higher-low chain through Asia. The London open pushed just above the Asian high to a session high at 82,637, met rejection, and price is now sitting on the rising trendline near 82,500, with the prior high at 82,711 overhead. The tape is macro-driven with no BTC-specific catalyst; a softer USD has underpinned the bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,417 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 82,146 swing low (23.6% fib of the recovery ~82,077)
Close above the session high at 82,637 and prior high at 82,711 extends the HH chain toward the 24h high at 83,197
UoM sentiment + 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low recovery from Thursday's 80,264 NY-session low, with a softer USD and easing yields in the background. London nudged past the Asian high to a 82,637 session high but met rejection and slipped back to 82,490. The rising trendline and the 82,417 london low still hold the higher-low sequence; RSI(14) is near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,417 london low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 82,147 swing low
M15 close above the 82,637 session high, then the 82,712 prior swing, extends the HH sequence
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read
A move back toward 81,730 puts the 38.2% recovery fib in play
HH/HL chain from 80,264 NY low; London marginally above Asian high.
Recovery from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 built a higher-low chain through Asia, from the 82,147 higher low up to the 82,417 London low. London nudged just past the Asian high to a 82,637 session high before stalling below the 82,712 prior high, with RSI(14) near 63 and no BTC-specific catalyst. Bigger supply sits at the 24h high of 83,197.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,712 prior high extends the HH chain toward the 24h high at 83,197
Break of the 82,417 London low and the higher-low trendline flattens the recovery structure; 82,147 higher low is next
Loss of 82,147 exposes the fib 38.2 at ~81,730
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~5.8h) could materially shift this read
HH/HL recovery from 80,264 low, stalling at session high.
The recovery from yesterday's NY-session low at 80,264 built a HH/HL chain through Asia. London open nudged above the Asian range high at 82,535 to a session high of 82,593, then stalled in a tight 82,417–82,593 band. RSI(14) is near 61 and price is holding the rising trendline, despite a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,593 session high extends the HH chain toward the 83,000 round number and the 83,197 prior high
Loss of the 82,417 london low and the rising trendline exposes the 82,234 higher low
Break of the 82,234 higher low ends the HL sequence; the recovery fib 38.2 at 81,703 is the next reference
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling below asian high · RSI 56 · price 82,459.19
HH/HL chain off 80264 low; tight 82436–82590 box into London open.
Yesterday's NY-session selloff from the 83197 prior high bottomed at 80264. Asia then ground higher in a HH/HL chain on a softer USD and yield correction, and is now stalling just under the 82590 asian high, which sits near the 78.6% fib of that drop. Early London is compressing in an ~150-point box with RSI(14) neutral at 56.
Support: 82,234.44, 81,515.23
Resistance: 82,590.05, 83,197.38
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82590 asian high and 78.6% fib opens the 82711 swing high, then the 83197 prior high
Break below the 82234 higher low, and the rising higher low line, ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 82146 swing low
Loss of 82146 swing low puts the 61.8% fib near 82077 and the 81515 asian low in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
07:33 UTC
Intraday recovery uptrend, stalling under Asian high · RSI 53 · price 82,455.19
HH/HL chain off 80263 low, early London pause below 82590.
Thursday's NY-session slide bottomed at 80263, against a hawkish-minutes, firm-USD backdrop. Price then rebuilt a higher-high/higher-low chain through Asia into the 82590 Asian high. Early London is fading slightly from that high, and price is retesting the rising trendline from the 80263 low with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 82,234.44, 81,701.00
Resistance: 82,590.05, 83,197.38
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82234 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 82146 higher low
Acceptance above the 82590 Asian high opens the path toward the 83197 prior high
Loss of 82146 shifts focus to the 38.2% recovery fib near 81701
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC sit just outside this window but could reset the read
Asia HH/HL chain off 81515, stalling under session high at London open.
Asia session built a higher-low chain from 81515 to a session high at 82590, recovering most of yesterday's NY slide to 80264 with no crypto-specific catalyst. Early London, price is drifting under that high and sitting on the rising trendline, RSI(14) near 57 and cooling. The prior high at 82711, the last NY swing before the breakdown, caps the recovery so far.
Support: 82,234.44, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,590.05
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 82234 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 82000 round number
Clearance of the 82590 session high and the 82711 prior high extends the recovery
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the Asian low, testing the top of the Asian range.
The Asia session recovered most of yesterday's NY slide to 80264, climbing in a higher-low chain from the 81515 asian low to an 82590 session high, just under the 78.6% sell-off fib near 82640. At the London open, price is sitting on the rising trendline with RSI(14) near 60. The 82711 prior high, where yesterday's bounce failed, is the next level overhead. There is no fresh crypto catalyst, and the softer USD tone is doing the lifting.
Support: 82,234.44, 81,515.23
Resistance: 82,590.05, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82711 prior high clears the 78.6% sell-off fib and puts the 24h high at 83286 in view
Break of the rising trendline and an M15 close below the 82234 higher low end the Asian higher-low chain; the 82146 swing low is next
Loss of 82146 swing low reopens the 81515 asian low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BTC has climbed from the 80,264 NY-session low in a clean HH/HL chain through Asia. The rising trendline is intact, the 82,234 higher low is the latest pivot, and price is pressing the 82,535 Asian high into the London open with RSI(14) near 63. There is no crypto-specific catalyst; the bounce tracks the softer USD after Trump's no-Iran-strike comments, with the 82,712 breakdown pt from yesterday's sell-off sitting overhead.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,535 asian high opens the 82,712 breakdown pt, then the 83,286 prior high
Loss of the rising trendline (~82,450) and the 82,234 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
Below 82,234, the 82,000 round number lines up with the 23.6% recovery fib; the 81,515 asian low marks the base of the move
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, capped at the Asian high.
The recovery from yesterday's 80,264 NY-session low built higher highs and higher lows through Asia, but the Asian high at 82,535 is capping price ahead of London open. Price is holding the rising line off that low after a test at the 82,234 swing low, with RSI(14) near 63. There is no BTC-specific catalyst; the moves are tracking macro and the USD tone after hawkish FOMC minutes.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,535 asian high opens the 82,712 ny swing hi, then yesterday's 83,286 london high
An M15 close below the 82,234 swing low and the rising line breaks the HH/HL sequence and exposes the 81,515 asian low
Michigan Sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing the Asian high.
BTC has retraced past the 61.8% level of yesterday's 83,286–80,264 drop. Higher lows built along a rising trendline through the Asian session as a softer USD on the Iran no-strike pledge eased the risk tone. Price sits just under the 82,535 Asian high into London open, with RSI(14) near 61 and nowhere near stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,535 Asian high opens the fib 78.6 at 82,639, with the prior high at 83,286 beyond
Break of the 82,234 higher low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL chain; 82,146 swing low is next, then the 81,515 Asian low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
06:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 60 · price 82,313.35
Higher-low chain from 80,264 NY low; Asian range 81,515–82,535.
Recovery from yesterday's NY-session flush to the 80,264 NY low has stepped up through Asia in higher lows, but the bounce met rejection at the 82,535 Asian high ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 60. Price is still below the 82,712 prior high where the NY breakdown began, and there is no fresh crypto catalyst against a hawkish FOMC-minutes backdrop.
What it said to watch
Break above the 82,535 Asian high puts the 82,712 prior high in play, with yesterday's 83,286 London high the next reference
Loss of the 82,146 swing low and the recovery trendline breaks the Asian higher-low chain and exposes the 81,515 Asian low
Retrace through the 38.2% recovery fib (~81,667) undercuts the bounce off the 80,264 NY low
UoM sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, momentum firm but stalling · RSI 67 · price 82,424.23
Asian HH/HL chain after a break of the overnight range; price just under the session high.
After the NY-session flush to 80264, BTC held a range overnight. The Asia session broke above the 81854 range top and built a HH/HL chain from the 81515 asian low to a session high at 82535. The 82147 higher low held at the 38.2% fib of that leg and sits on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 67 and late-Asia ranges compressing ahead of London open. There is no BTC-specific catalyst: the move tracks a softer USD on the yield correction and Iran pause.
Support: 82,146.53, 81,853.86, 81,515.23
Resistance: 82,535.11, 82,711.91, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82147 higher low and trendline breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 81854 range top
Acceptance above the 82535 session high brings the 82712 ny high into view, with the 83286 prior high above that
Loss of the 81515 asian low would negate the overnight recovery structure
London open in ~1h15m typically expands the Asian range
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian higher-low/higher-high chain from 81515, near top of NY breakdown leg.
The Asia session ground higher from the 81515 asia low in a clean higher-low chain. Price has retraced roughly 88% of yesterday's NY sell-off from the 82712 drop origin to 80264 and is pressing the 82481 asia high, with RSI(14) near 64. With no BTC-specific catalyst, a softer USD tone is the backdrop for the bounce.
Support: 81,515.23
Resistance: 82,481.17, 82,711.91, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82712 drop origin erases the NY breakdown and puts the 83000 round number in play
Failure to hold the 82146 higher low breaks the Asian HL chain and exposes the 81515 asia low
Rejection at the 82481 asia high into London open would cap the session range
UoM sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NY session sold off from the 82712 NY high to an 80264 NY low against a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop. Price has rebuilt on a rising-lows trendline since, with the Asian range spanning 81515–82441. Late Asia saw supply cap the Asia high, and the pullback held 82147 (pullback low) on the trendline. RSI(14) is near 61 and holding above both EMAs, with the fib of the recovery leg showing only a shallow pullback.
Support: 82,146.53, 81,515.23, 80,263.61
Resistance: 82,441.21, 82,711.91, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82147 pullback low and the rising-lows trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 38.2% fib near 81610 and the Asia low at 81515
Close above the 82441 Asia high reopens the 82712 NY high, with the London high at 83286 beyond
London open in under 2h is the first test of the Asian range
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 81515 Asian low; three-bar pullback from 82441 high.
BTC sold off to 80264 during NY hours against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop. It then rebuilt through Asia in a HH/HL chain from the 81515 Asian low to the 82441 Asian high. Late Asia is easing off that high toward the 82090 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s.
Support: 82,090.00, 81,816.00, 81,515.00
Resistance: 82,441.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
Hold of the 82090 swing low / 38.2% fib keeps the Asian HH/HL structure intact
Break below the 81816 higher low unwinds the Asian rally toward the 81515 asian low
M15 close above the 82441 asian high reopens the 82712 swing high from yesterday's NY bounce
London open at 07:00 UTC may set a new session range
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from Asian low, first pullback off session high.
Asia session extended the recovery from yesterday's 80,263 NY-session low in a higher-low chain to a session high at 82,441, with no BTC-specific catalyst and only a marginally softer USD behind the drift. Price has since rejected that high and slipped under the Asia trendline toward 82,250, sitting just above the 82,090 higher low.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,090 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the rebound fib 38.2% at 81,609, then the 81,515 Asian low
Reclaim of the 82,441 session high resumes the rebound toward the 82,711 prior high from yesterday's NY session
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the Asia trendline break holds
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Recovery uptrend, higher lows since NY low · RSI 71 · price 82,346.31
HH/HL chain off 80264 NY low, Asia broke late-NY range.
BTC has retraced about 69% of yesterday's 83286–80264 slide, which ran from the pre-drop hi at 82712 during NY hours as a firm USD and hawkish Fed minutes weighed. A rising trendline of higher lows from the NY low carried price through the 81487–81853 late-NY range in Asia. Price now sits just under the 82441 asian high with RSI(14) near 71 and the 61.8% fib at 82132 cleared.
Support: 82,132.00, 81,816.00, 81,515.00
Resistance: 82,441.00, 82,712.00, 83,286.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82441 asian high opens the 82712 pre-drop hi, then the 78.6% fib near 82640 and the 83286 window high
Close back below the 61.8% fib at 82132 and the rising trendline (~82020) stalls the recovery read
Break of the 81816 swing low, then the 81515 asian low, ends the higher-low sequence
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read through USD and yields
04:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 80264 low, Asia leg steady · RSI 75 · price 82,406.25
HH/HL chain through Asia session, pressing the session high below the 82712 lower high.
Late Asia session: BTC has climbed in a clean HH/HL chain from the 81515 asia low to a session high at 82431. That move has reclaimed the 61.8% fib of yesterday's 83286–80264 slide, with RSI(14) near 75. Price now sits just under the 82712 lower high that capped the NY-session bounce. No crypto-specific catalyst; the digest's firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop is the main macro headwind.
Support: 82,268.40, 82,131.60, 81,515.23
Resistance: 82,431.22, 82,711.91, 83,286.28
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 82712 lower high breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence and opens the 83286 24h high
A close back below the Asia trendline (~82230) and the 82268 prior high breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the 61.8% fib at 82132 in play
Loss of the 81515 asia low would unwind the whole Asia recovery
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 80264 NY low; Asia broke the overnight range.
Late Asia session has lifted price out of the overnight 81500–81900 consolidation and back above the 61.8% fib of the 83286–80264 sell-off, with RSI(14) near 72, short-term hot. A softer USD as Iran no-strike headlines drained haven demand fits the bounce. Higher lows hold on rising support from the NY-hours low, and the 78.6% fib at 82640 and the 82710 breakdown point sit overhead.
Support: 81,961.74, 81,515.23
Resistance: 83,286.28
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 82130 and the 81962 pullback low stalls the Asia push
M15 close below the asian low at 81515 breaks rising support and the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 82710 breakdown point opens the 24h high at 83286
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 80264 NY low; overnight range broken higher in late Asia.
Late Asia broke the overnight range top near 81854 and printed a new Asian high at 82320. Price has now retraced past the 61.8% fib of the 83286–80264 drop. RSI(14) near 74 is short-term hot, and there is no fresh crypto catalyst, with a softer USD as the backdrop ahead of London open.
Support: 82,132.00, 81,854.00, 81,515.00
Resistance: 82,320.00, 82,711.00, 83,286.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 82132 puts the range top at 81854 back in play
M15 close above the 82711 lower high opens the path toward the 83286 day high
Break of the rising trendline and the 81515 Asian low negates the higher-low sequence
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break, HH/HL chain into 61.8% retrace.
Asia session broke out of the overnight 81,515–81,854 range at 01:30 UTC and printed a session high at 82,268. The 03:00 UTC dip held a higher swing low at 81,962, and the rising support from yesterday's 80,264 NY low is intact. Price now sits at the 61.8% retrace of the 83,286–80,264 selloff with RSI(14) near 64, and there is no fresh crypto catalyst behind the move.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,268 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 82,712 selloff high
Loss of the 81,962 swing low puts the 81,854 range top back in play as a retest of the breakout
Close back below the 81,515 range low and the rising support negates the recovery structure
83,286 prior high marks the top of yesterday's selloff leg
London open in ~3.5h may set a new session range
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
03:18 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 64 · price 82,022.67
Higher lows since NY low, capped at 78.6% retrace.
BTC fell from the 82712 NY breakdown point to an 80264 low during NY hours, with a firm USD and hawkish Fed minutes as the backdrop. Since then it has built higher lows along rising support through the Asia session. A wick rejection at the 82268 Asian high, near the 78.6% fib, has price stalling around 82000 late in the Asian range.
Support: 81,816.00, 81,515.00
Resistance: 82,268.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82268 Asian high clears the 78.6% fib and puts the 82712 NY breakdown level back in view
Loss of the 81816 swing low and rising support turns the recovery into a range, with the 81515 Asian low next
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Recovering from NY low, higher lows intact · RSI 63 · price 82,012.68
Higher-low chain off 80,264; rejection at 61.8% fib.
Higher lows have stacked off Thursday's 80,264 NY-hours low along rising support. In the Asian session price cleared the 81,850 range top, and a spike to 82,268 ran just past the 61.8% retracement of the 83,286–80,264 selloff before rejection pulled it back to 82,000. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and there is no BTC-specific catalyst in the tape.
What it said to watch
Hold above the 82,268 spike high clears the 61.8% fib and exposes the 82,712 lower high from Thursday's NY session
M15 close back below the 81,850 range top returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 81,515 asian low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:48 UTC
Recovery grind off NY low, momentum moderate · RSI 59 · price 81,924.78
Higher lows since 80264; Asian range 81515–82037, price pressing the top.
The NY-session slide from 82712 to 80264 came with a firm USD, hawkish FOMC minutes and the bond selloff. Price has since retraced back above the 61.8% fib of that slide at 81777. Asia is compressing between 81515 and 82037 with higher lows, and the asian high is under test with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 81,777.00, 81,515.00
Resistance: 82,037.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82037 asian high extends the recovery toward the 82712 ny high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 81777 puts the 81515 asian low back in play; a break there ends the higher-low sequence
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read; Iran headlines are a tail risk
02:32 UTC
Recovery from NY selloff, momentum flattening · RSI 56 · price 81,840.87
Higher lows off NY low, capped at Asian high.
The NY session selloff from the 82,616 breakdown level to an 80,264 NY low, against a firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes, has been retraced in a steady higher-low chain along the rising trendline. Asia probed 82,036 and met rejection, leaving price mid-way through the 81,515–82,036 Asian range with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,515 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib near 81,360
Acceptance above the 82,036 asian high puts the 82,616 breakdown level back in play
A loss of the 38.2% fib reopens the 80,264 ny low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC (~11.5h) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Recovery uptrend off NY low, momentum moderate · RSI 61 · price 81,939.76
Higher lows since 80,264 NY low; Asia testing 61.8–78.6% retrace of the NY sell-off.
The NY session sell-off ran from the 82,712 swing high to the 80,264 NY low against a firm-USD, hawkish-minutes backdrop, with no crypto-specific catalyst. Since then, higher lows have lifted price back above the fib 61.8 at 81,777. Asia probed 82,000 and printed a wick rejection at the 82,037 Asia high, just under the 82,093 breakdown level where the NY drop started.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,093 breakdown level reclaims the NY sell-off origin and puts the 82,712 swing high back in view
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 81,777 shifts focus to the 81,515 Asia low
Break of the 81,515 Asia low ends the rising lows sequence and exposes the 80,264 NY low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC (~13.5h) could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Recovery off NY low, higher lows intact · RSI 57 · price 81,895.81
Overnight range 81,490–81,850, early Asia testing the range top.
NY hours saw a slide from the 82,712 NY high to an 80,264 swing low as the USD stayed firm after hawkish FOMC minutes. Price then recovered and spent the late session in an 81,490–81,850 range, which held the 50% retracement of that drop. Early Asia defended the 81,515 Asia low and is now pushing just above the 81,854 range top with RSI(14) near 57, so the breakout is tentative.
What it said to watch
M15 closes holding above the 81,854 range top confirm the range break; a slip back inside reads as a false break
Loss of the 81,515 Asia low ends the higher-low sequence and reopens the 80,264 swing low
82,000 psych and the 82,190 78.6% fib are the next caps on the ny drop fib; the 82,712 NY high sits above
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~12h) could reset the USD-driven read
Iran strike-plan headlines are a haven-USD risk that could hit price before the data
01:47 UTC
Recovering after NY selloff, now flat · RSI 59 · price 81,861.85
Asia range 81,490–81,900, testing range top.
NY session's drop from the 82,712 pre-drop high to the 80,264 NY low came against a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The rebound has retraced beyond the 61.8% fib of that selloff, and the Asia session is now pressing the 81,897 range top of an 81,487–81,897 box.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,897 range top opens the 82,000 round number, then the 82,712 pre-drop high
Slip back under the 61.8% fib at 81,777 returns price to the 81,487 range floor
Loss of the range floor exposes the 80,264 NY low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations, Fri 14:00 UTC (~12h), could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Sideways after NY-session selloff · RSI 52 · price 81,700.03
Tight range 81,487–81,854 capped under 61.8% fib.
BTC was flushed from the 82,712 pre-drop high to the 80,264 NY low between 15:00 and 17:15 UTC as USD held firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The rebound stalled near the 61.8% fib around 81,777. Price has since compressed into an 81,487–81,854 range, with the early-Asia session range of 81,515–81,812 still intact and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,854 range top clears the 61.8% fib and opens a move back toward the 82,712 pre-drop high
Failure to hold the 81,515 asian low and 81,487 range low (50% fib) exposes the 38.2% near 81,199, then the 80,264 NY low
Michigan Sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the range in either direction
Iran strike-plan headlines and USD haven demand could jolt price before the data
NY selloff low 80,264 held; 81,490–81,850 range since, slipping to range floor.
The NY session selloff from the 82,711 lower high bottomed at 80,264. The rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib near the 81,854 range high, with the range low at 81,487 sitting on the 50% level. Early Asia has eased back to the 81,582 Asian low, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 48, against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop and no fresh crypto catalyst.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 81,487 (range low / 50% fib) opens 81,200 and the 80,264 selloff low
Close above the 81,812 Asian high and the 81,854 range high clears the 61.8% fib stall and puts the 82,711 lower high back in focus
Iran strike-plan headlines and Michigan sentiment plus inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC, ~13h) could materially shift this read via USD
01:06 UTC
Post-selloff recovery, stalling in a range · RSI 54 · price 81,684.04
Tight 81487–81854 range with higher lows, below NY breakdown.
The NY-session flush from the 82,712 pre-drop high to the 80,264 NY low has retraced into the 50–61.8% fib zone, against a firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes. Since late NY, price has compressed in an 81,487–81,854 range into Asia. Higher lows near 81,600 are forming, but the range high is still capping, with RSI(14) neutral and price hugging EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,854 range high and 61.8% retrace opens the 82,000 round number
Failure of the 81,600 higher low and the 81,487 range low turns the read back toward the 80,264 NY low
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Recovery off NY low, stalling under range top · RSI 59 · price 81,739.98
Tight 81,490–81,850 box with rising lows, capped at the 61.8% retracement.
The NY session broke down from the 82,712 breakdown pt to an 80,264 NY low, then reversed sharply. Price has since ground back into a tight 81,490–81,850 box capped at the 61.8% retracement of that leg. Early Asia trade is quiet with no fresh crypto catalyst, and rising lows from 81,487 to 81,588 sit beneath the range high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,854 range high and 61.8% retracement opens the 82,000 round number, then the 82,712 breakdown pt
Loss of the 81,588 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 81,487 range low and 50% retracement
Failure below the 81,487 range low reopens the path toward the 80,264 NY low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations, Fri 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Rebound after NY selloff, now flattening · RSI 51 · price 81,651.08
Tight range 81487–81854 above the 80264 session low.
The NY session drop from 82711 bottomed at 80264, against a backdrop of hawkish FOMC minutes and a firm USD. The rebound has stalled into a range between the 81487 range low and the 81854 range high, with a 81588 swing low inside it. Early Asia session is drifting just under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, holding only about 13% of the recovery fib.
Support: 81,588.00, 81,487.00
Resistance: 81,854.00, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81487 range low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% recovery fib near 81246
Close above the 81854 range high opens the 82000 round number
Loss of the 81588 swing low shifts the range toward its lower half
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC (~13.5h) could materially shift this read
00:18 UTC
Rebound off NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 81,741.98
Higher lows off 80264, capped below 81854.
The NY session broke below the 81762 London low and ran to an 80264 day low against a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop. Since then BTC has recovered on a chain of higher lows along rising support, retracing about 60% of the drop. It is now holding in a tight band under the late NY high at 81854 into early Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 81,588.00, 81,487.00, 80,264.00
Resistance: 81,854.00, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81854 late NY high and the 82000 round number would extend the recovery toward the 82712 pre-drop high
A break of the 81588 swing low and rising support ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 50% fib at 81487
Losing 81487 would put the 80264 day low back in focus
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read later in the day
HL/HH recovery off 80,264, capped at 61.8% retrace.
A NY-session selloff took BTC from 82,712 to an 80,264 day low as the hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop weighed. The rebound since then has printed a higher low at 81,487, the 50% retrace, but has stalled around the 61.8% level, where the late-NY session high at 81,854 is capping. Early Asia session trade sits just above EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 81,854 session high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 82,000 round number
Break below the 81,487 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 80,264 day low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read